General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[jerb]

[Eat My Shatkins]

I can see bounce backs for the position players.

 

But Atkins is on crack if he's comfortable with our pitching depth.

 

Why?

 

Jays top 4 SP are all extremely durable and coming off strong seasons.

 

Jays #5 was in Cy Young contention in 2022, Jays #6 finished last year on a absolute heater in AAA mowing MFers down, and their #7 might be the top SP prospect in all of MiLB

 

Plus their bullpen is fully intact from last season except for Hicks, and it has tons of depth at AAA

 

I mean, yeah they can always add another arm or two, but it certainly isn't a dire need at this point.

[max silver]

Why?

 

Jays top 4 SP are all extremely durable and coming off strong seasons.

 

Jays #5 was in Cy Young contention in 2022, Jays #6 finished last year on a absolute heater in AAA mowing MFers down, and their #7 might be the top SP prospect in all of MiLB

 

Plus their bullpen is fully intact from last season except for Hicks, and it has tons of depth at AAA

 

I mean, yeah they can always add another arm or two, but it certainly isn't a dire need at this point.

 

It sounds like the club is one of the primary suitors for Yairel Rodriguez who they apparently view as a swing man type.

[L54]

You mean betting the under or something, why stream against good pitching and D?

 

Stream pitchers vs this lineup

[Spanky99]

Stream pitchers vs this lineup

 

Gotcha.

[L54]

You can’t just assume bounce backs from every under performer and expect the rest to maintain status quo or not regress

 

I don’t see anything that makes a Varsho bounce back likely. Same with Kirk. Schneider had an xBA of like .200

 

Two left handed outfielders who both are defensive specialists means they need another OF

 

Idk. Not loving it at all

[Eat My Shatkins]

You can’t just assume bounce backs from every under performer and expect the rest to maintain status quo or not regress

 

I don’t see anything that makes a Varsho bounce back likely. Same with Kirk. Schneider had an xBA of like .200

 

Two left handed outfielders who both are defensive specialists means they need another OF

 

Idk. Not loving it at all

 

They're probably expecting a bounce back from Vlad more than any other, which is the big one. He could be a game changer if he gets back to MVP caliber bat stats.

[Spanky99]

*We like our team, Barry* Josh Donaldson

 

I'll wait to see what we have going into spring before judging the off season.

[L54]

They're probably expecting a bounce back from Vlad more than any other, which is the big one. He could be a game changer if he gets back to MVP caliber bat stats.

 

Oh for sure they are. I’d like to see them mitigate some of that risk by putting better offensive players around him though

[BigCecil]

You can’t just assume bounce backs from every under performer and expect the rest to maintain status quo or not regress

 

I don’t see anything that makes a Varsho bounce back likely. Same with Kirk. Schneider had an xBA of like .200

 

Two left handed outfielders who both are defensive specialists means they need another OF

 

Idk. Not loving it at all

 

Agreed. 6 WAR down with Chappy and Belt gone. KK projects 1. '23 he was 2.2. I don't expect Varsho WAR to improve - unless he plays more CF.

 

Joc is a poor man's Belt. Career 73 wRC+ vs LHP - virtually unplayable. 125 vs RHP with power. Useful piece. Belt 136 in 2023.

 

Both Bo and Vlad need to be 5 ish WAR players again, with increased O from Kirk & Springer. Its possible. Based on projections, its not probable. Springer was healthy last year which is rare. He is another year older and 29th percentile Avg EV is concerning.

 

I expect some pitching regression (health and/or performance) and concerned about our overall depth there, so the offense and D will have to be solid. Pitching is still a relative strength.

[Brownie19]

You can’t just assume bounce backs from every under performer and expect the rest to maintain status quo or not regress

 

I don’t see anything that makes a Varsho bounce back likely. Same with Kirk. Schneider had an xBA of like .200

 

Two left handed outfielders who both are defensive specialists means they need another OF

 

Idk. Not loving it at all

 

If the offense produces the same wRC+ it did last year, there's a good probability that results in a lot more runs scored than last year - especially if they clean up their s***** base running. In theory, outside of Vlad and the catchers, this team shouldn't be so awful on the bases. KK, Varsho, Bo, Springer, IKF, Biggio, etc. should all be solid base runners. There's no reason for KK, Bo and Springer to be negative BsR guys. I wonder if the comments re: better support to the players might be geared towards cleaning that s*** up this year. This would also help lead to more runs scored by the same offensive group. We can't be 27th in BsR again in 2024.

[L54]

Agreed. 6 WAR down with Chappy and Belt gone. KK projects 1. '23 he was 2.2. I don't expect Varsho WAR to improve - unless he plays more CF.

 

Joc is a poor man's Belt. Career 73 wRC+ vs LHP - virtually unplayable. 125 vs RHP with power. Useful piece. Belt 136 in 2023.

 

Both Bo and Vlad need to be 5 ish WAR players again, with increased O from Kirk & Springer. Its possible. Based on projections, its not probable. Springer was healthy last year. He is another year older and 29th percentile Avg EV is concerning.

 

I expect some pitching regression (health and/or performance) and concerned about our overall depth there, so the offense and D will have to be solid. Pitching is still a relative strength.

 

KK played the second most games of his career last year. I think it’s crazy to expect him to duplicate that

 

Joc is impossible to fit on the roster if they’re only bringing in one more player. Three outfielders who can’t hit lefties + Springer

 

Pitching should be fine but of course the odds four of them make 30 starts again is slim

 

Bullpen looks good though which nobody has ever said in January!!

[Eat My Shatkins]

More consistent wRC+ with RISP should help the offense too.

[MikeM3]

Why?

 

Jays top 4 SP are all extremely durable and coming off strong seasons.

 

Jays #5 was in Cy Young contention in 2022, Jays #6 finished last year on a absolute heater in AAA mowing MFers down, and their #7 might be the top SP prospect in all of MiLB

 

Plus their bullpen is fully intact from last season except for Hicks, and it has tons of depth at AAA

 

I mean, yeah they can always add another arm or two, but it certainly isn't a dire need at this point.

 

It's just unlikely that we get two consecutive years of perfect rotation health. And last year our non top 5 were minus war. And that was with Ryu.

[BigCecil]

It's just unlikely that we get two consecutive years of perfect rotation health. And last year our non top 5 were minus war. And that was with Ryu.

 

We have only had extremely healthy rotations in 2016 and 2023. Its rare. Manoah is a total wild card we hold.

[L54]

If the offense produces the same wRC+ it did last year, there's a good probability that results in a lot more runs scored than last year - especially if they clean up their s***** base running. In theory, outside of Vlad and the catchers, this team shouldn't be so awful on the bases. KK, Varsho, Bo, Springer, IKF, Biggio, etc. should all be solid base runners. There's no reason for KK, Bo and Springer to be negative BsR guys. I wonder if the comments re: better support to the players might be geared towards cleaning that s*** up this year. This would also help lead to more runs scored by the same offensive group. We can't be 27th in BsR again in 2024.

 

I dont see base running leading us to the promise land but I guess we’ll see

[Eat My Shatkins]

It's just unlikely that we get two consecutive years of perfect rotation health. And last year our non top 5 were minus war. And that was with Ryu.

 

Honestly, I wish the jays were able to bring in sketchy character guys but you know they won't.

 

There will probably end up being tons of surplus value if they signed Bauer and Aroldis to one year deals.

[L54]

Signing Bauer is the most obvious way to improve the roster for anyone who enjoys the $/WAR calculation

[max silver]

Agreed. 6 WAR down with Chappy and Belt gone. KK projects 1. '23 he was 2.2. I don't expect Varsho WAR to improve - unless he plays more CF.

 

Joc is a poor man's Belt. Career 73 wRC+ vs LHP - virtually unplayable. 125 vs RHP with power. Useful piece. Belt 136 in 2023.

 

Both Bo and Vlad need to be 5 ish WAR players again, with increased O from Kirk & Springer. Its possible. Based on projections, its not probable. Springer was healthy last year which is rare. He is another year older and 29th percentile Avg EV is concerning.

 

I expect some pitching regression (health and/or performance) and concerned about our overall depth there, so the offense and D will have to be solid. Pitching is still a relative strength.

 

Belt was extremely fortunate in 2023. His results were better than Pederson's but the underlying numbers paint a completely different story. Pederson seems like a smart bet for a bounceback season. Belt rarely faced left handed pitching due to the extreme right handed makeup of the hitters surrounding him in the lineup the same could be expected for Pederson.

 

Pederson 2022 .373 wOBA .367 xwOBA

Pederson 2023 .331 wOBA .368 xwOBA

Pederson 2024 projection .345 wOBA

 

Belt 2023 .369 wOBA .337 xwOBA

Belt 2024 projection .327 wOBA

[Stangstag]

*We like our team, Barry* Josh Donaldson

 

I'll wait to see what we have going into spring before judging the off season.

 

Yeah not exactly fair to judge the offseason as a failure just yet. But its not looking great and I don’t like these comments we’re hearing from Ross. Like he’s already trying to temper expectations.

[max silver]

If the offense produces the same wRC+ it did last year, there's a good probability that results in a lot more runs scored than last year - especially if they clean up their s***** base running. In theory, outside of Vlad and the catchers, this team shouldn't be so awful on the bases. KK, Varsho, Bo, Springer, IKF, Biggio, etc. should all be solid base runners. There's no reason for KK, Bo and Springer to be negative BsR guys. I wonder if the comments re: better support to the players might be geared towards cleaning that s*** up this year. This would also help lead to more runs scored by the same offensive group. We can't be 27th in BsR again in 2024.

 

The team had a crazy home/away split where they were clutch and very good overall on the road but decidedly unclutch and low scoring at home. The run differential on the road was somewhere in the 60-70 range but essentially even at home.

[BigCecil]

Belt was extremely fortunate in 2023. His results were better than Pederson's but the underlying numbers paint a completely different story. Pederson seems like a smart bet for a bounceback season. Belt rarely faced left handed pitching due to the extreme right handed makeup of the hitters surrounding him in the lineup the same could be expected for Pederson.

 

Pederson 2022 .373 wOBA .367 xwOBA

Pederson 2023 .331 wOBA .368 xwOBA

Pederson 2024 projection .345 wOBA

 

Belt 2023 .369 wOBA .337 xwOBA

Belt 2024 projection .327 wOBA

 

Joc is a useful piece. As usual your take in optimistic IMO. Nothing wrong with that.

 

However, Pederson's career wRC+ vs LHP & RHP are based on 4000 PAs. I think they are indicative of what we can truly expect from him, regardless of Belts actual or under lying numbers the last couple years.

[max silver]

It's just unlikely that we get two consecutive years of perfect rotation health. And last year our non top 5 were minus war. And that was with Ryu.

 

I actually liked the team's depth starters heading into the 2023 season but unfortunately most of the depth options ended up suffering injury. That's at least preferable to having the rotation members suffer from injury all things considered.

 

As mentioned the depth heading into the season doesn't look too bad, but there is a lot of variability in this group and more depth options is never a bad thing. To my eyes the depth options at present look like White, Francis, Tiedemann and Chad Dallas at this point with fringe roster players like Parsons also set to return if I recall correctly.

[MikeM3]

I actually liked the team's depth starters heading into the 2023 season but unfortunately most of the depth options ended up suffering injury. That's at least preferable to having the rotation members suffer from injury all things considered.

 

As mentioned the depth heading into the season doesn't look too bad, but there is a lot of variability in this group and more depth options is never a bad thing. To my eyes the depth options at present look like White, Francis, Tiedemann and Chad Dallas at this point with fringe roster players like Parsons also set to return if I recall correctly.

 

Tiedemann is an opener until proven otherwise. He's alot more Pearsony than people realize.

[Brownie19]

I dont see base running leading us to the promise land but I guess we’ll see

 

Very good base running is clearly one of the factors that allowed the Cubs and Cincy to score a lot more runs than their wRC+ would suggest. Even if we are middle of the pack on the bases this year, it could have a tangible impact on how many runs we score. We finally fired that stupid f*** who was standing at 3rd base, sending runners when he shouldn't have. He alone probably cost us 10+ runs last year.

[Brownie19]

Tiedemann is an opener until proven otherwise. He's alot more Pearsony than people realize.

 

How do you propose we add rotational depth - outside of just signing or trading for another SPer and pushing Manoah to AAA as the 6th starter? (which likely erodes his relationship with the Jays FO even more). Are we trading for solid SPing prospects who are near ready in AA/AAA? IMO, it's very hard to improve your SP depth in the offseason. Nobody wants to sign with a team to be their 6th or 7th starter - there's always a shittier team out there willing to give them a rotation spot in the majors.

 

Having Francis, White and Ricky T as depth - to go along with a very proven, solid starting rotation that's going to feature Manoah as the 5th guy seems like it's a lot better position to be than most teams in baseball.

 

Given what Montas and Giolito just cost on the FA market, it's hard to see us adding another SPer. I think that what you see is that you're going to get at this point, unless we bring in Yariel Rodriguez or someone like that - who would just replace White (who we'd have to DFA)

Edited January 3, 2024 by Brownie19

[max silver]

Joc is a useful piece. As usual your take in optimistic IMO. Nothing wrong with that.

 

However, Pederson's career wRC+ vs LHP & RHP are based on 4000 PAs. I think they are indicative of what we can truly expect from him, regardless of Belts actual or under lying numbers the last couple years.

 

Belt was largely shielded from opposition left handers being deployed against him by the largely right handed makeup of the top of the Jays order. Unless there is another major acquisition of a quality left handed bat on top of a potential Pederson acquisition then this will continue to be the case. Belt faced left handed pitching in approximately 18% of his plate appearances compared to about 12% for guys like Vlad and Bo.

 

Pederson was actually a fair bit better than Belt's 2023 as recently as 2022. Belt was actually quite a bit worse than Pederson against left handed pitching last season and struggled to a similar degree in 2022 as well so Pederson's splits won't be of any more concern than they were for Belt. The team has plenty of right handed players already on the roster that can spend time at DH to platoon with Pederson such as Vlad, Kirk, Jansen, Springer and Schneider.

 

My only real issue with Pederson is how it skews the outfield as being overly left handed and there isn't really a good right handed outfielder on the roster to face tough righties in place of the likes of Kiermaier, Varsho and Pederson if he were acquired. The team largely employed Merrifield in that role with semi decent results, hopefully the plan isn't to use IKF in this type of role as well.

[deanmike]

It's entirely possible they really just use the projected 27M they have left under the 2nd tax threshold on Joc+Duvall/Grichuk+pitching depth (Yariel Rodriguez?).

 

Lineup vs RHP could be

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider/Biggio

3B Biggio/IKF

SS Bo

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Joc

 

Lineup vs RHP could be

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Espinal

3B IKF

SS Bo

LF Duvall/Grichuk

CF Varsho

RF Springer

DH Schneider

 

It's also possible (maybe even preferable at this point) that instead of a strong side platoon guy like Joc they sign an everyday DH/OF like Soler/Teo/Pham which would allow them to give more DH days to Springer regardless of the opposing pitching matchup. Even Justin Turner would probably make more sense for primary DH (because he can cover some 3B innings) than Joc.

 

I still want Hoskins over any other FA bat still available but that dream seems dead. Jays seem to be moving against what projections say about Vlad (imminent future full time DH) by targeting a DH/OF type.

Edited January 3, 2024 by deanmike

[max silver]

Tiedemann is an opener until proven otherwise. He's alot more Pearsony than people realize.

 

That's just incredibly pessimistic thinking. Tiedemann is going to continue being developed as a starter until he proves that he can't handle the position. Pearson has only avoided missing major time due to injury in only 2 of his 6 professional seasons up to this point. Perhaps Tiedemann eventually will prove to be injury prone in a similar fashion but it's far from a given at this point of his career.

[L54]

That's just incredibly pessimistic thinking. Tiedemann is going to continue being developed as a starter until he proves that he can't handle the position. Pearson has only avoided missing major time due to injury in only 2 of his 6 professional seasons up to this point. Perhaps Tiedemann eventually will prove to be injury prone in a similar fashion but it's far from a given at this point of his career.

 

There are a lot of people in the industry who have been throwing cautionary red flags on Tiedemann since the fall