General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Eat My Shatkins]

What would you rather the Jays do:

 

1. Aroldis Chapman for 1 x $10m

2. Jordan Hicks for 3 x $40m

3. Josh Hader for 4 x $80m

4. None of the above

 

I like our bullpen and it's depth, there are much bigger holes to fill right now.

But damn I love the thought of a potential super bullpen like Hader, Romano, Green, Mayza, Swanson locking s*** down in late innings.

[Krylian]

Would people want Solar or J.D.?

 

They would be plan G and W

[Krylian]

What would you rather the Jays do:

 

1. Aroldis Chapman for 1 x $10m

2. Jordan Hicks for 3 x $40m

3. Josh Hader for 4 x $80m

4. None of the above

 

I like our bullpen and it's depth, there are much bigger holes to fill right now.

But damn I love the thought of a potential super bullpen like Hader, Romano, Green, Mayza, Swanson locking s*** down in late innings.

 

If we don't add some bats there will be nothing to lock down.

[Frenchsoup]

Lots of eyes on u Shapiro and Atkins....

[Frenchsoup]

Seems like your plan A and B are trash

[Eat My Shatkins]

Honestly, the biggest bat the Jays can add is to have Vladdy resurrect his career and put up another 6 fWAR season.

[Frenchsoup]

It's been 2 months since you got kicked out of the playoffs and u do nothing but waste your time on Shoehei and offer him 600+million to try and put a bandaid on your problem...get some pieces for ur org.

[bones10]

Bellinger is so scary but it feels like we have no other move to make at this point, we can't trade our depleted farm system. They need to pay for FA's and go for it now.

[Frenchsoup]

Now Jung Hoo Lee seems like a bargain eh Spanks?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bellinger is so scary but it feels like we have no other move to make at this point, we can't trade our depleted farm system. They need to pay for FA's and go for it now.

 

I kind of agree. Sign Belly, Chappy and a DH and let's EFFFing go...

 

It ain't my money lol

[Krylian]

This is going to end up an underwhelming offseason. There will be people who will dig deeeep to find some stats that show how who they do add are in the best interest of the club though.

[Brownie19]

Prefer Turner over JDM. Similar bat, Turner can still play in the field. Played games at 1B, 2B, and 3B in 2023.

 

The real kicker is JDM had a 31% K rate in 2023. Turner's was 18.6%. Turner much less likely to fall off the cliff.

 

JDM was a lot better offensively last year (135 wRC+) than Turner (114 wRC+) last year. However, both project poorly this year (107 and 105 wRC+). Big changes in JDM's approach last year, which is worrisome. I agree that Turner is a good option also if we want a short term, relatively cheap veteran bat.

[max silver]

A .301 ISO is great obviously. The question is if he can continue selling out for power as he gets older and his bat speed declines even further. Also he was literally as good a hitter as Belt was last season, which was my point. If he can be exactly as good as last season that’d be great, would take it in a heartbeat.

 

I would really like if we had readily available bat speed numbers so we could track bat speed declines over time. I believe that this is tracked by Statcast but not available to the general public. Chris Black has referenced these numbers in several of his offseason Twitter/X posts.

 

I fully agree it's really unlikely to expect Martinez to be better than Belt was in 2023, however I think Martinez is the far more likely of the two to repeat his success. Belt seemed to be rather fortunate with batted ball luck last season as he outperformed his xWOBA by 32 points as compared to Martinez who was within a single point of his expected stats.

[L54]

I feel like people expecting JDM to be a significant upgrade on Belt are in for a rude awakening. His whiff and K rates shot up pretty significantly and he's already a guy who didn't walk that often. Granted, he's still got some pretty exciting, game changing power, when he connects the damage is significant, but this might prove harder to do as a 36 year old turning 37 midway through next season. I'd still take him but I would be thrilled if he gave us a 125+ wRC+ good for 2 WAR, trading some OBP for SLG. He provides no defensive value whatsoever unlike Belt who could at least give Vlad a day off at 1B, and is a significantly worse baserunner.

 

I don’t think anyone reasonable is expecting anything more than what you laid out

[max silver]

JDM was a lot better offensively last year (135 wRC+) than Turner (114 wRC+) last year. However, both project poorly this year (107 and 105 wRC+). Big changes in JDM's approach last year, which is worrisome. I agree that Turner is a good option also if we want a short term, relatively cheap veteran bat.

 

Turner is being projected at this point to lose only 9 points by wRC+ vs Martinez who is projected to lose 28 points despite being nearly 3 years younger. The projections must be heavily influenced by the sharp increase in strikeouts.

 

I recall reading some analysis recently that suggested it may be actually be beneficial for players to maximize their quality of contact and sacrificing balls in play a bit given the better results on batted balls this would produce vs simply slapping the ball into play. There would obviously be a tipping point where the overall numbers would really suffer past a certain point in strikeout rate.

[L54]

JDM >>> Turner

[L54]

Turner is being projected at this point to lose only 9 points by wRC+ vs Martinez who is projected to lose 28 points despite being nearly 3 years younger. The projections must be heavily influenced by the sharp increase in strikeouts.

 

I recall reading some analysis recently that suggested it may be actually be beneficial for players to maximize their quality of contact and sacrificing balls in play a bit given the better results on batted balls this would produce vs simply slapping the ball into play. There would obviously be a tipping point where the overall numbers would really suffer past a certain point in strikeout rate.

 

Precisely. More contact does not equal less downside. Vlad is a perfect example

[max silver]

Precisely. More contact does not equal less downside. Vlad is a perfect example

 

I don't have actual data to back this up but I think that Martinez most likely improved his swing velocity/bat speed in order to generate extra exit velocity. As Vlad already produces top of the charts exit velo's the last thing he needs to do is swing the bat harder than he already does. Key for him would be laying off the damn sliders off off the outside corner of the plate.

[Jimcanuck]

JDM >>> Turner

 

False. Projections for both are very similar.

[hanton]

Sign JDM.....for the work ethic alone, maybe that can rub off on some of younger players

[deanmike]

I will be very disappointed if we are the team that inevitably heavily overpays Chapman and/or Bellinger.

[L54]

I don't have actual data to back this up but I think that Martinez most likely improved his swing velocity/bat speed in order to generate extra exit velocity. As Vlad already produces top of the charts exit velo's the last thing he needs to do is swing the bat harder than he already does. Key for him would be laying off the damn sliders off off the outside corner of the plate.

 

The comparison was more contact not exit velos

[L54]

False. Projections for both are very similar.

 

Yes and the projections are quite similar between Vlad and Freeman too

[Frenchsoup]

I think Payton Henry will carry us to the promise land

[max silver]

The comparison was more contact not exit velos

 

Perhaps Vlad's bat to ball skills are a bit of a weakness when he's chasing out of the strike zone too much.

[Terminator]

Why does Steamer hate JDM so much?

[Spanky99]

Why does Steamer hate JDM so much?

 

Age, predominantly.

[jaysblue]

I wouldn't give JDM a three-year deal. Memories of Frank Thomas are still vivid.

 

One-year is good enough for JDM. Likely will cost $18M. Think he would be a great fit in this lineup!

[Terminator]

Age, predominantly.

 

It likes most of the other FA DH types more. It even likes Horwitz a good bit more.

[Spanky99]

It likes most of the other FA DH types more. It even likes Horwitz a good bit more.

 

It's not the be all, and projections are always conservative. It's age.