General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[connorp]

I thought Belly played a good CF. If you’re putting him in RF because Varsho is better, you’re diminishing the full value you’re paying

[Jimcanuck]

I thought Belly played a good CF. If you’re putting him in RF because Varsho is better, you’re diminishing the full value you’re paying

 

Yes to some extent, but Jays are primarily interested in the LH bat.

 

Bellinger could probably play a very good 3B. He handled 1B very well, and has a very good arm. Won't happen though

[hanton]

Belli is a lefty....OF or 1B

[hanton]

and he handles both really well, I'd put him in CF

[Stangstag]

Varsho is Corner OF long-term in that case.

 

Lawl tell me you don’t know baseball

[connorp]

Lawl tell me you don’t know baseball

 

Like I said, you’d be paying a CF premium and putting a guy in the corner. What’s hard to understand about that?

[Stangstag]

Like I said, you’d be paying a CF premium and putting a guy in the corner. What’s hard to understand about that?

 

Varsho is a far better defender in CF… Bellinger is the best OF bat on the market. Is there a problem with having Bellinger in RF/LF? Don’t have many options this offseason unless they go the trade route.

[BTS]

Getting backed into a corner and forced to gamble 200M on a player with major red flags because he's all that's available is exactly what you don't want to do.

[Brownie19]

I thought Belly played a good CF. If you’re putting him in RF because Varsho is better, you’re diminishing the full value you’re paying

 

I think that plays into what you're willing to pay him. You'd value him as a GG level RFer and if he wants $50M more because he's a solid CFer, then let someone else overpay. The guy has enough red flags as it is. The Jays shouldn't get pressured into overpaying for someone like Belly.

[Jimcanuck]

Getting backed into a corner and forced to gamble 200M on a player with major red flags because he's all that's available is exactly what you don't want to do.

 

BTS has extreme bias against his former heartthrob Bellinger

[max silver]

Getting backed into a corner and forced to gamble 200M on a player with major red flags because he's all that's available is exactly what you don't want to do.

 

I'm sort of on board with a Bellinger signing. He dramatically overhauled his swing/offensive game over the previous offseason trading exit velocity for more contact by reducing how hard he was swinging the bat. He slashed his strikeout rate to remarkable degree with a new two strike approach that saw him fouling off a ton of pitches. There's still certainly a lot of risk with the type of deal he's going to command but I see him as the only player on the free agent market who offers the opportunity to add an impact player to the roster. He's the ultimate high risk/high reward player on the market as if the improvements stick he's a potential 5+ win player but if they don't he could just as easily be a 2-3 win player.

[Laika]

I'm sort of on board with a Bellinger signing. He dramatically overhauled his swing/offensive game over the previous offseason trading exit velocity for more contact by reducing how hard he was swinging the bat. He slashed his strikeout rate to remarkable degree with a new two strike approach that saw him fouling off a ton of pitches. There's still certainly a lot of risk with the type of deal he's going to command but I see him as the only player on the free agent market who offers the opportunity to add an impact player to the roster.

 

2021 - one of the worst players in baseball

2022 - one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball (WAR saved by defense and baserunning)

2023 - .331 xwOBA vs .370 wOBA; no real improvement to barrel and hard hit rates vs 2022 and 2021. actually the worst hard hit rate of his career.

 

 

I think he has succeeded at saving his career, he's just not a star anymore. He is more of a 2-3 WAR player. He will probably hit .257/.321/.450 with decent defense and BsR for a few years.

 

That's an $80M player, not a $150M or $200M player...

 

... I'd rather just sign ALMOST ANYBODY who can play the outfield. Gurriel, Soler, Bader, Teoscar.... plug the hole with a geezer like Pham, Brantley.

 

Like, what if you can get Teoscar for $50M? That is so much better, risk/reward.

[Jimcanuck]

2021 - one of the worst players in baseball

2022 - one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball (WAR saved by defense and baserunning)

2023 - .331 xwOBA vs .370 wOBA; no real improvement to barrel and hard hit rates vs 2022 and 2021. actually the worst hard hit rate of his career.

 

 

I think he has succeeded at saving his career, he's just not a star anymore. He is more of a 2-3 WAR player. He will probably hit .257/.321/.450 with decent defense and BsR for a few years.

 

That's an $80M player, not a $150M or $200M player...

 

... I'd rather just sign ALMOST ANYBODY who can play the outfield. Gurriel, Soler, Bader, Teoscar.... plug the hole with a geezer like Pham, Brantley.

 

Like, what if you can get Teoscar for $50M? That is so much better, risk/reward.

 

So you've gone from "no" to there are better options. Progress.

 

Teoscar is a butcher on the field.

[Laika]

So you've gone from "no" to there are better options. Progress.

 

Teoscar is a butcher on the field.

 

Well, it's a hard no unless he costs less than $100M.

[Jimcanuck]

Well, it's a hard no unless he costs less than $100M.

 

So simply a value proposition. At the end of the day, I trust Shatkins to make that evaluation.

[Laika]

Oh you trust Atkins do you. You trust Ross. Cute.

[Jimcanuck]

Oh you trust Atkins do you. You trust Ross. Cute.

 

Well, based on his FA signing record, yes, yes I do.

[Laika]

Yeah I trust that he's not interested in Cody Bellinger for $150M

[Jays24]

Bellinger is getting no less than Springers deal of 6/150. Since we won't be using him in CF because that'd make Varsho utterly useless, giving him anything more than that just doesn't make sense.

 

Now don't get me wrong, I'd love him for around that deal but don't think we need to overpay for that. Signing Teo for like 4/70 would be better than overpaying Bellinger to play LF. Then bring back Chapman and sign the Solar/J.D.

[Jimcanuck]

Well, it's a hard no unless he costs less than $100M.

 

Yeah I trust that he's not interested in Cody Bellinger for $150M

 

More progress.

[BTS]

Some smart team is going to sign Hunter Renfroe or Adam Duvall for like 1/8 and get a 2-3 win season. Some other team is going to sign Cody Bellinger for like 8/200 and get a 2-3 win season.

 

There's also no reason why we can't be the team to give Austin Meadows a chance to rebound.

[Brownie19]

Some smart team is going to sign Hunter Renfroe or Adam Duvall for like 1/8 and get a 2-3 win season. Some other team is going to sign Cody Bellinger for like 8/200 and get a 2-3 win season.

 

I think there's a strong possibility this happens. I think the Jays would need to be 1000% confident that the changes Belly made last year are sustainable and real before they hand out anything more than a 3 year deal for Belly. If you're really convinced that he's a 4-6 WAR player moving forward, than giddy up. Otherwise, bring in Renfroe or Duvall and save your $$$ for someone with less risk.

[glory]

Getting backed into a corner and forced to gamble 200M on a player with major red flags because he's all that's available is exactly what you don't want to do.

 

Agreed. It just seems like a bad idea all across the board.

 

With how bad the FA market is, the easiest PR friendly move is probably Teoscar at this point. He’s not any better or worse than the other options available, and still had strong statcast indicators last season. Really anything would be better than Bellinger just based on the fact that it wouldn’t cost 7/200 or whatever.

[John_Havok]

Agreed. It just seems like a bad idea all across the board.

 

With how bad the FA market is, the easiest PR friendly move is probably Teoscar at this point. He’s not any better or worse than the other options available, and still had strong statcast indicators last season. Really anything would be better than Bellinger just based on the fact that it wouldn’t cost 7/200 or whatever.

 

Teo also had the worst rates of all the bad hitters peripherals of his career last year. And for a guy with bad D and bad baserunning, it’s enough to create a lot of pause before signing him

[wilko]

Some smart team is going to sign Hunter Renfroe or Adam Duvall for like 1/8 and get a 2-3 win season. Some other team is going to sign Cody Bellinger for like 8/200 and get a 2-3 win season.

 

There's also no reason why we can't be the team to give Austin Meadows a chance to rebound.

 

I forgot about that guy.. He's still young and hits left, plus you could get him cheap.

[Jays24]

Teo should be brought in as a part time OFer/DH.

[Laika]

Agreed. It just seems like a bad idea all across the board.

 

With how bad the FA market is, the easiest PR friendly move is probably Teoscar at this point. He’s not any better or worse than the other options available, and still had strong statcast indicators last season. Really anything would be better than Bellinger just based on the fact that it wouldn’t cost 7/200 or whatever.

 

I really don't think Bellinger gets close to $200

 

Maybe he does just because it's such a weak free agent class but $150M is horrible for his projections so $200M is just shockingly bad.

[Brownie19]

I forgot about that guy.. He's still young and hits left, plus you could get him cheap.

 

That's because he's injury prone and is a fulltime DH now. He's a minor league invite guy.

[Brownie19]

Teo also had the worst rates of all the bad hitters peripherals of his career last year. And for a guy with bad D and bad baserunning, it’s enough to create a lot of pause before signing him

 

Yeah - I don't want Teo at 3 years $50M or anything like that. Duvall or Renfroe on 1 year deals are much better options IMO. I love Teo, but he's a prime candidate to fall off a cliff as soon as this year. If he wants a 1 year $15M deal to play in TO? Welcome back, otherwise, nah.

[MikeM3]

It's hard to make an impact with our money right now, it seems. Might have to use it to eat bad deals and get value that way.

 

I just can't believe we'd give Bellinger that money but we definitely need to upgrade the lineup.