General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Frenchsoup]

Adding Yamamoto would provide a consistently for Atkins/jays. Great staff 1-14.

 

Why does no one talk of signing ryu or Kikuchi tho? What would it take to sign/extend at this point ??

 

Ryu 2/32

Kikuchi 2/32?

 

This makes a lot of sense

[Frenchsoup]

Yamamoto has a GOOD arm man.

[Frenchsoup]

How much you want to pay for that total? the bid and the contract, cuz the bid from the Mets is going to be high.

[Ehjays]

[Laika]

As a Jays fan you would hope so because like I said in the last 7 years there really isn't much to show from the draft. At the same time its been open for what 2 years? So you would think some of the prospects would have taken a big step this year and looking at their top 15 guys coming into the season it looks like there has been just as many cases of players regressing as progressing.

 

Welcome to minor league baseball where 90% of top prospects don't make it

 

Fact is the Jays system looks much better than it did a year ago. It didn't flourish or anything but there was a big improvement in depth. For every flop there was like 2 emergences

[Laika]

Drafted or signed as an amateur and graduated since 2016:

 

Bichette, Kirk, Moreno, Biggio, Manoah, Schneider, Pearson, Horwitz.

 

I don't think that's horrendous. There is a real star in there and a couple of guys who have looked like stars for a whole season.

Go compare it to say the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

Yeah it's not in the top third of the league but it's not a hopeless track record.

 

Finding guys like Davis Schneider out of nowhere is also an insanely good signal.

[burlingtonbandit]

Drafted or signed as an amateur and graduated since 2016:

 

Bichette, Kirk, Moreno, Biggio, Manoah, Schneider, Pearson, Horwitz.

 

I don't think that's horrendous. There is a real star in there and a couple of guys who have looked like stars for a whole season.

Go compare it to say the Yankees or Red Sox.

 

Yeah it's not in the top third of the league but it's not a hopeless track record.

 

Finding guys like Davis Schneider out of nowhere is also an insanely good signal.

 

For a FO that preaches Drafting and Developing that pretty bad honestly. Especially when you factor in they went through a rebuild in 2018-2019. Horiwitz isn't even a regular on a contending team. 1 WAR 1B can be had every offseason for cheap. Not sure Schneider having a good 35 games is really an "insanely good signal". Its nice to see a success story but not sure its predictive of anything

 

I actually really like Shapiro and think hes a great executive but being merely an average team for this big a market is an extreme disappointment. Hopefully the right coaches are in place and the Jays can improve in this area because just about every FO is "smart" now.

[Laika]

For a FO that preaches Drafting and Developing that pretty bad honestly. Especially when you factor in they went through a rebuild in 2018-2019. Horiwitz isn't even a regular on a contending team. 1 WAR 1B can be had every offseason for cheap. Not sure Schneider having a good 35 games is really an "insanely good signal". Its nice to see a success story but not sure its predictive of anything

 

I actually really like Shapiro and think hes a great executive but being merely an average team for this big a market is an extreme disappointment. Hopefully the right coaches are in place and the Jays can improve in this area because just about every FO is "smart" now.

 

They can only get better

 

But these kinda of systems take time to develop

 

They also do get credit for hitting the sell button on guys like Martin and Hoglund at the right time.

 

The point is to have a good MLB team, not graduate the most prospects. If you draft an asset and then trade it for several years of Matt Chapman that's a huge win.

[max silver]

For a FO that preaches Drafting and Developing that pretty bad honestly. Especially when you factor in they went through a rebuild in 2018-2019. Horiwitz isn't even a regular on a contending team. 1 WAR 1B can be had every offseason for cheap. Not sure Schneider having a good 35 games is really an "insanely good signal". Its nice to see a success story but not sure its predictive of anything

 

I actually really like Shapiro and think hes a great executive but being merely an average team for this big a market is an extreme disappointment. Hopefully the right coaches are in place and the Jays can improve in this area because just about every FO is "smart" now.

 

It's hard to deny there was a definite downturn in draft results after the rather successful 2016 draft, particularly with regards to high profile misses in the first round. I don't know it's is due to a change in drafting philosophy or personnel changes but I am a huge fan of the last 3 drafts in particular. 2021 added Hoglund who was a key piece in the Chapman acquisition as well as potential rotation pieces in Tiedemann and Dallas. 2022 saw the addition of pieces like Barriera and Roden who is moving really quickly up the system, and 2023 saw Nimmala added as a really high ceiling prospect.

[Brownie19]

Its not non existent and not as bad as the terrible Orgs. like the Rockies/Royals/Angels but its below average. And this is from a FO who has stressed its importance from the beginning. Its one thing to understand that drafting and developing is important but its another to actually follow through. The division rival Orioles FO came in and did an overhaul 3 years after the Jays FO came in, with way less resources.

 

Its sad to even have to point out that Horowitz is a player development success when describing the Jays FO as he's a dime a dozen 1B.

 

Can we point out that they traded for Teo and then developed him in to an all-star player?

[burlingtonbandit]

Of course systems take time, I'm the first to understand that. It probably takes 2 years to flush out bad coaches/bring new ones in and another 3 or so years for the prospects in the system to see the results of the changes. However its been 8 years since this FO has taken over which is my point. The Orioles FO turned over and started seeing results in 3-5 years. And while they've had some success with some international guys like Teo, Moreno, Gurriel and Kirk, the NA draft results are bleak. I will say the last couple of drafts look better and at least they have quite a few interesting bullpen arms.

 

To be a sustainable winner you have to draft and develop well and while the Jays look to have a competitive team for this year and next, the lack of success in the draft makes the path to having a championship contender in 2026-2028 look pretty tough right now. To the point where a reset/rebuild might be on the horizon.

 

Now watch them go out and sign Ohtani and make the outlook of the org. change in an instant lol.

[Jimcanuck]

It was just a few yrs ago the Jays farm was top 5 in MLB. It can just as quickly become top 5 again.

[G-Snarls]

Where did Davis Schneider come from?

 

Mustache Heaven

[max silver]

Of course systems take time, I'm the first to understand that. It probably takes 2 years to flush out bad coaches/bring new ones in and another 3 or so years for the prospects in the system to see the results of the changes. However its been 8 years since this FO has taken over which is my point. The Orioles FO turned over and started seeing results in 3-5 years. And while they've had some success with some international guys like Teo, Moreno, Gurriel and Kirk, the NA draft results are bleak. I will say the last couple of drafts look better and at least they have quite a few interesting bullpen arms.

 

To be a sustainable winner you have to draft and develop well and while the Jays look to have a competitive team for this year and next, the lack of success in the draft makes the path to having a championship contender in 2026-2028 look pretty tough right now. To the point where a reset/rebuild might be on the horizon.

 

Now watch them go out and sign Ohtani and make the outlook of the org. change in an instant lol.

 

The Blue Jays went from being good in 2016, were bad and quietly rebuilding behind the scenes without tanking from 2017-2019, and started paying top free agents after the 2019 off season. They turned the organization around in the span of essentially 3 years. There has been a window of success that's lasted 4 years, with at least 2 more likely years of relative success to come. I think the drafting has been decent for the most part as the team has graduated a lot of prospects over the years and used a lot in trade as well, but the biggest thing that's been lacking is impact players acquired through the draft.

 

You are missing and/or ignoring the fact that the Orioles tanked REALLY hard from 2018-2021, losing well over 100 games in 3 out of 4 seasons. As such were able to draft near the top of the draft for a sustained period of time where the picks are far less to bust. On top of that they also had the benefit of receiving competitive balance picks giving them more picks and more importantly a higher overall pool of money. That doesn't take away from the fact that they've made a lot of great picks during this time, but it definitely helps when you can select close to sure thing stars in the top few spots of the draft.

 

By the time 2026-2028 rolls around we shall see if the player development complex is fully paying dividends and if the more recent drafts churn out more successful MLB reinforcements. I like the chances of more of the draftees reaching their full potential in the future given the inherent advantage of having a top tier development complex.

Edited November 23, 2023 by max silver

[Olerud363]

Horiwitz isn't even a regular on a contending team. 1 WAR 1B can be had every offseason for cheap. Not sure Schneider having a good 35 games is really an "insanely good signal". Its nice to see a success story but not sure its predictive of anything

 

Jays have 6 guys (Schneider, Howritz, Barger, Roden, Palmegianni, and Orelvis Martinez) in the upper minors. Don't need all 6 to make it, so you really are more interested in the max 2 of the 6.

 

Horwitz' 50% percentile projection (like .260 .350 .400) could be a regular on a contender, though not a key piece (1.5 WAR). However what we are more interested in is his 80th% projection which is probably more like prime Lyle Overbay. A contender isn't going to play all 6 at their 50th percentile percentile, but play the two that over-achieve.

 

Everyone knows the minors is a game of failure but Howritz has made it through most steps and is exactly the same as Lyle Overbay at the same age (dynamite numbers in a high offense environment). Schneider is comparable to maybe Dan Ugla (a little ahead actually). It's good news these guys have made it this far. Maybe they won't make the next step (productive every day player) but they could. It's not written in stone they are their 50th percentile zips projection, there is still variability good and bad ahead.

[wamco]

Can we point out that they traded for Teo and then developed him in to an all-star player?

 

Teo gets some credit here as well. I think it was springer who said Teo was one of the hardest working teammates he had in Houston. Just wanted to point it out as his defense never necessarily indicated that. Prob realized his calling card was the bat.

[Brownie19]

Teo gets some credit here as well. I think it was springer who said Teo was one of the hardest working teammates he had in Houston. Just wanted to point it out as his defense never necessarily indicated that. Prob realized his calling card was the bat.

 

I mean obviously it takes 2 to tango bruh.

[wamco]

Is that really true? With advancements in AI, is a one person tango not attainable yet?

[Brownie19]

Is that really true? With advancements in AI, is a one person tango not attainable yet?

 

To be fair, you're probably right. For all we know, Teo worked independently and developed 100% on his own. Maybe he went to a hitting specialist lab (driveline equivalent) during the offseason and the Jays deserve no credit. Then again, we don't know which players are even willing to accept help from the organization. There are certainly ones who go on their own path and do what they want in the offseason (and during the season). Easy to say the organization has to do a better job of engaging them and helping them see the value of training with the team, in their facility, with their staff - but not everyone will. And things will change in the players lives (family, kids, cocaine, whores) that may change a players work habits.

 

Pretty tough for standard fans to have any strong opinion on whether the Jays are doing a good job with development or not as there are so many different factors involved. The new state of the art facility has to help, but it will take more than a couple of years to see the results. I think they deserve a lot of kudos for making that happen. As for the results at the ML level - let's be honest, we're in a winning window right now and have been selling prospects to help the big club. This isn't rocket science. That said, we do have a lot of home grown talent on the roster. I think some fans have unrealistic expectations.

[BigCecil]

For a FO that preaches Drafting and Developing that pretty bad honestly. Especially when you factor in they went through a rebuild in 2018-2019. Horiwitz isn't even a regular on a contending team. 1 WAR 1B can be had every offseason for cheap. Not sure Schneider having a good 35 games is really an "insanely good signal". Its nice to see a success story but not sure its predictive of anything

 

I actually really like Shapiro and think hes a great executive but being merely an average team for this big a market is an extreme disappointment. Hopefully the right coaches are in place and the Jays can improve in this area because just about every FO is "smart" now.

 

Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro says his club’s farm system is better than it was two years ago, but still largely a work in progress. “Not where it needs to be,” Shapiro told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand in a recent Q&A. “I think we’re really excited about what’s happening at [high Class A], at Dunedin, the Florida State League and below. Still concerned about Double-A and Triple-A, the depth of prospects there.”

 

Shapiro said he would rank Toronto’s farm “probably in the upper half, maybe closing in on the upper third” of all MLB organizations and highlighted the success of top prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who both began the season in Lansing before advancing to Dunedin.

 

“You don’t just need two guys, you need waves of guys,” said Shapiro. “And behind them, you need another wave of guys. I feel like that’s coming. It’s probably two to four years away that it’s going to get here, but when it comes, what we’ve continued to execute on whether it’s [assistant GM] Andrew Tinnish leading us in international, we’ve got waves of guys coming. “I’m encouraged by that.”

 

Shapiro - Aug 31, 2017

[Laika]

This is why executives need to just never say anything at all.

 

One throw away comment six years ago and fans will jerk off to it angrily forever.

 

Where are the waves, bro! You promised us WAVES!!!

[John_Havok]

Well it’s not really pointless, it’s more an emphasis on how bad it has been which you admitted yourself in a round about way

 

Saying something is a weakness of a system and could be better vs saying something is "non-existent" is not even close to the same thing.

 

It's akin to rudimentary sales techniques that claim their product is "the best thing in the world" in order to attract attention. If thats what you need to do do get attention or to have an opinion noticed.... it probably means your opinion is worthless and without substance.

[burlingtonbandit]

Jays have 6 guys (Schneider, Howritz, Barger, Roden, Palmegianni, and Orelvis Martinez) in the upper minors. Don't need all 6 to make it, so you really are more interested in the max 2 of the 6.

 

Horwitz' 50% percentile projection (like .260 .350 .400) could be a regular on a contender, though not a key piece (1.5 WAR). However what we are more interested in is his 80th% projection which is probably more like prime Lyle Overbay. A contender isn't going to play all 6 at their 50th percentile percentile, but play the two that over-achieve.

 

Everyone knows the minors is a game of failure but Howritz has made it through most steps and is exactly the same as Lyle Overbay at the same age (dynamite numbers in a high offense environment). Schneider is comparable to maybe Dan Ugla (a little ahead actually). It's good news these guys have made it this far. Maybe they won't make the next step (productive every day player) but they could. It's not written in stone they are their 50th percentile zips projection, there is still variability good and bad ahead.

 

Lyle Overpay had a wRC+ over 120 exactly one time in his career. You don't have to go back much further to see how tough it is for 1B prospects to become regulars (Rowdy Tellez, who only is 2 years older btw) especially ones with as little power as Horowitz. I don't think you should count on this guy to be anything more than depth and even then hes likely just replacement level.

[burlingtonbandit]

This is why executives need to just never say anything at all.

 

One throw away comment six years ago and fans will jerk off to it angrily forever.

 

Where are the waves, bro! You promised us WAVES!!!

 

Funny because Shaprio actually is pretty good with the media unlink Atkins who is an absolute tire fire and should never be in front of a mic. What he said isn't wrong though, you do need waves of young players to be a sustainable contender. And thats why this discussion is happening because it looks like this competitive window is closing pretty soon.

[Olerud363]

Lyle Overpay had a wRC+ over 120 exactly one time in his career. You don't have to go back much further to see how tough it is for 1B prospects to become regulars (Rowdy Tellez, who only is 2 years older btw) especially ones with as little power as Horowitz. I don't think you should count on this guy to be anything more than depth and even then hes likely just replacement level.

 

Jays just won the division with a 1 WAR first basemen. Lyle Overbay beat that 7 times. Overbay had a wRC+ over 120 twice, and 119 another time. Despite being almost as bad as 2023 Vlad at defense and baserunning, Overbay regularly beat the 2023 version of Vlad in WAR. If Howritz could hit like Overbay and have just mildly negative defense and baserunning he'd be fine.

 

John Olerud, Marc Grace, Yandy Diaz, Keith Hernandez good examples of how that type of player can succeed at first. Average, walks, doubles, good 1b defense, smart baserunning, that type of player can have MVP like seasons (Hernadez, Olerud) or if not that talented, certainly 'regular on a contender type seasons' even without big time power.

 

Rowdy Tellez wasn't as good a minor league hitter as Howritz. Telles was .270 .350 .450 and Horwitz .300 .410 .460.

 

Instead of comparing Horwitz to Rowdy Tellez make a list of the 10 other guys who hit like Horwitz at around the same ages and take the median outcome.

[Jays24]

This is why executives need to just never say anything at all.

 

One throw away comment six years ago and fans will jerk off to it angrily forever.

 

Where are the waves, bro! You promised us WAVES!!!

 

It wasn't only that comment alone... it was that comment after people knew he blasted AA for "emptying" the system for the best success the Jays have had since '93.

 

Shatkins have "emptied" the system and we haven't won a single playoff game in an expanded playoff era but hey... those renovations though lol.

[L54]

Saying something is a weakness of a system and could be better vs saying something is "non-existent" is not even close to the same thing.

 

It's akin to rudimentary sales techniques that claim their product is "the best thing in the world" in order to attract attention. If thats what you need to do do get attention or to have an opinion noticed.... it probably means your opinion is worthless and without substance.

 

If I had to guess you correct people’s spelling on Facebook

[Laika]

RE: Horwitz

 

Here is a sample

 

2010 through 2023, seasons with 300+ PA at AAA, 1B players, and BB/K of 1.00 or more

 

1 2009 Wes Timmons ATL AAA 30 412 14.8% 8.7% 1.69 .280 .412 .363 .775 .084 5.4 .307 -0.1 60 12.5 .364 126

2 2011 David Cooper TOR AAA 24 545 12.3% 7.9% 1.56 .364 .439 .535 .974 .171 2.3 .380 -1.3 110 33.6 .425 144

3 2013 Daric Barton OAK AAA 27 488 17.8% 11.7% 1.53 .297 .423 .430 .853 .133 2.6 .327 -0.9 82 21.1 .392 134

4 2018 Daniel Vogelbach SEA AAA 25 378 20.4% 15.6% 1.31 .290 .434 .545 .979 .256 1.2 .299 -0.6 77 28.1 .426 157

5 2019 John Nogowski STL AAA 26 463 14.9% 11.7% 1.28 .295 .413 .476 .889 .182 2.7 .308 -0.7 85 15.5 .387 122

6 2010 Kila Ka'aihue KCR AAA 26 416 21.2% 16.6% 1.28 .319 .463 .598 1.060 .279 3.1 .339 0.4 96 39.6 .454 171

7 2014 Daric Barton OAK AAA 28 375 13.6% 10.7% 1.28 .261 .371 .411 .781 .150 2.1 .271 -0.5 52 3.3 .352 107

8 2012 Daric Barton OAK AAA 26 336 19.6% 15.8% 1.25 .255 .411 .425 .835 .170 5.8 .286 0.9 55 10.8 .380 124

9 2023 Phillip Evans ARI AAA 30 590 15.6% 12.7% 1.23 .312 .424 .439 .862 .127 3.5 .344 -1.5 105 15.2 .395 117

10 2015 Casey Kotchman KCR AAA 32 361 10.8% 8.9% 1.22 .290 .374 .426 .800 .136 2.5 .305 0.0 52 6.8 .359 115

11 2012 Clint Robinson KCR AAA 27 570 13.9% 11.4% 1.22 .292 .393 .452 .845 .160 2.4 .315 0.1 92 16.8 .377 122

12 2009 Kila Ka'aihue KCR AAA 25 555 18.4% 15.3% 1.20 .252 .392 .433 .825 .181 2.3 .272 -1.0 85 14.9 .370 121

13 2013 Dan Johnson NYY AAA 33 560 16.6% 14.6% 1.13 .253 .379 .447 .826 .194 1.4 .264 -0.5 84 21.4 .376 134

14 2007 Daric Barton OAK AAA 21 604 12.9% 11.4% 1.13 .293 .389 .438 .827 .145 3.9 .321 -1.2 94 13.8 .370 117

15 2006 Chris Carter ARI AAA 23 588 13.3% 11.7% 1.13 .301 .395 .483 .878 .183 4.5 .318 0.3 99 25.3 .391 134

16 2016 Casey Kotchman TOR AAA 33 376 9.6% 8.5% 1.13 .256 .343 .383 .726 .127 2.0 .264 0.0 45 4.8 .334 112

17 2011 Josh Kroeger FLA AAA 28 326 11.0% 9.8% 1.13 .284 .372 .465 .837 .181 3.8 .286 -0.9 49 2.6 .366 106

18 2008 Brian Myrow SDP AAA 31 417 19.4% 17.3% 1.13 .314 .451 .500 .951 .186 2.2 .367 -0.3 84 27.6 .421 149

19 2008 Dan Johnson TBR AAA 28 486 17.3% 15.4% 1.12 .307 .424 .556 .980 .249 1.7 .319 -0.9 97 38.8 .427 167

20 2021 Tyler White TOR AAA 30 443 18.1% 16.5% 1.10 .292 .424 .476 .900 .184 1.8 .331 -1.2 83 26.4 .401 146

21 2012 David Cooper TOR AAA 25 304 12.2% 11.2% 1.09 .314 .395 .540 .935 .226 2.5 .324 -0.5 55 15.0 .400 137

22 2023 Spencer Horwitz TOR AAA 25 484 16.1% 14.9% 1.08 .337 .450 .495 .945 .158 3.8 .386 -0.2 98 30.1 .425 144

23 2014 Dan Johnson TOR AAA 34 460 18.7% 17.6% 1.06 .232 .381 .434 .815 .202 1.3 .245 -0.2 68 14.9 .370 128

24 2008 Rico Washington STL AAA 30 314 16.6% 15.6% 1.06 .254 .392 .468 .860 .214 2.4 .264 -0.8 52 9.2 .379 122

25 2009 Daric Barton OAK AAA 23 313 14.4% 13.7% 1.05 .261 .386 .458 .844 .198 3.7 .278 -0.1 50 10.0 .376 125

26 2022 Vinnie Pasquantino KCR AAA 24 313 12.8% 12.5% 1.03 .277 .371 .561 .931 .284 4.7 .258 -0.4 57 16.0 .395 139

27 2013 Marc Krauss HOU AAA 25 314 16.9% 16.6% 1.02 .281 .401 .478 .880 .198 3.4 .310 -0.9 52 12.1 .387 131

28 2008 J.R. House HOU AAA 28 513 10.3% 10.1% 1.02 .306 .378 .480 .858 .174 1.5 .312 -0.6 83 13.3 .375 119

29 2012 Dan Johnson CHW AAA 32 589 16.0% 16.0% 1.00 .267 .388 .492 .880 .225 2.2 .272 0.0 96 29.0 .389 143

 

 

Not really a great list, haha. David Cooper, Kila Ka'aihue... Daric Barton has always been an obvious bullish comparison but it's funny how he shows up on this list at ages 21, 23, 26, 27, and 28 lmfao; before and at the end of his brief MLB career

[Brownie19]

It wasn't only that comment alone... it was that comment after people knew he blasted AA for "emptying" the system for the best success the Jays have had since '93.

 

Shatkins have "emptied" the system and we haven't won a single playoff game in an expanded playoff era but hey... those renovations though lol.

 

You, and others continue to harp on playoff wins. Do you believe the Diamondbacks had a more successful year than the Braves because they made the division championship?

 

FWIW - AA did empty the system. He created a 2 year window for the Jays. We're currently in the midst of a 4 year window that certainly seems to be open for at least another 2 years. It is very disappointing that we don't have any playoff wins during that period, but the playoffs are a crapshoot. Answer this - if the Jays advanced to the 2022 WS like the Phillies (87 win team) and the 2023 ALCS like the Dbacks (84 win team) the past 2 season - would you suddenly be praising Atkins?

[L54]

This is why executives need to just never say anything at all.

 

One throw away comment six years ago and fans will jerk off to it angrily forever.

 

Where are the waves, bro! You promised us WAVES!!!

 

Except Itchy and Scratchy were the ones who promised a sustainable winner and their recipe was to have a continuous pipeline coming through the system. Shapiro openly criticized AA for the job he did and basically said I’ll show you how it’s done

 

Now people have to convince themselves Hagen Danner is evidence that the development is sound