General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[connorp]

Moron...

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10602-General-Blue-Jays-Discussion-Thread-(2023)?p=1710829&viewfull=1#post1710829

 

What are you showing me? That post is the same way I phrased it to Tommy and you were acting like you didn’t know what I was talking about. Douche

[connorp]

um, no. I don't really care who likes me because I'm not 12 anymore.

 

Wanting acceptance doesn’t stop at 12, amigo.

[Spanky99]

Apparently the numbers have been run, 2-3 runs +/- per season from the best one above average to the worst.

 

I truly think you guys have a fundamentally flawed view of how well every 1b does with this type of play virtually all of the time. It has value, just not the value you want to give it because they all do it well.

 

Connor and LTBF think they're smarter than the tangotiger, lol. Comedic gold.

[connorp]

Connor and LTBF think they're smarter than the tangotiger, lol. Comedic gold.

 

Save your energy for your declining fantasy teams. They need attention

[Terminator]

Also, there's another flawed thought process surrounding 1B defense and it revolves around the fact that the position is unique.

 

No other position has to scoop throws consistently nor are they feeding the pitcher who is covering the bag. So because 1B is unique in that way, and because Ron Washington said so in Moneyball, there's this thought that 1B is difficult to play.

 

The uniqueness can present challenges in that you can't just take a left fielder and throw him at 1B. It probably takes tons of reps to be good at scooping. But unique =/= difficult.

[Terminator]

So there was a lot of talk about the Jays soft schedule entering the break so let's recap.

 

The Jays didn't play that well. They dropped a winnable game against the A's to kick off the home stand. They were swept by the Red Sox. They were no-hit by the Tigers and it took a miracle finish to avoid dropping a series against them in the rubber match.

 

If we played like that against a difficult schedule we would have gotten our asses handed to us. But guess what? Because that schedule was so soft we STILL went 9-6.

 

At the start of it the Jays were on the outside looking in when it came to the WC and winning the AL East was a pipe dream. Now the Jays are tied for WC2 and Fangraphs gives us with a 9.2% chance to win the AL East.

 

Lucky for us we still have one of the easiest schedules remaining.

[John_Havok]

So there was a lot of talk about the Jays soft schedule entering the break so let's recap.

 

The Jays didn't play that well. They dropped a winnable game against the A's to kick off the home stand. They were swept by the Red Sox. They were no-hit by the Tigers and it took a miracle finish to avoid dropping a series against them in the rubber match.

 

If we played like that against a difficult schedule we would have gotten our asses handed to us. But guess what? Because that schedule was so soft we STILL went 9-6.

 

At the start of it the Jays were on the outside looking in when it came to the WC and winning the AL East was a pipe dream. Now the Jays are tied for WC2 and Fangraphs gives us with a 9.2% chance to win the AL East.

 

Lucky for us we still have one of the easiest schedules remaining.

 

Sure would be nice to win a bloody game against Baltimore and Boston going down the stretch though.

[The Cats Ass]

What’s a 3b do really? Only so much speed can help you when ball is hit 100mph and needs to go 90ft.

 

Speed isn't quite as important at 3B, you need arm strength to play 3B. That's why Biggio couldn't stick there. But he can play 1B.

[John_Havok]

Something else Tom said is also at play here.... evaluating the play vs evaluating the player.

 

When evaluating the play, scooping, picking, jumping, stretching etc.... all valuable when it comes to each individual play. But when every 1B does an adequate job at those plays nearly all the time, the value on the player is lessened.

[Terminator]

Apparently the numbers have been run, 2-3 runs +/- per season from the best one above average to the worst.

 

I truly think you guys have a fundamentally flawed view of how well every 1b does with this type of play virtually all of the time. It has value, just not the value you want to give it because they all do it well.

 

It's amazing at how good all these MLB first baseman are at this. I played some 1B in high school and college and it's hard as hell. But nearly every MLB 1B does it all the time.

[Brownie19]

Wanting acceptance doesn’t stop at 12, amigo.

 

That's true for some. I hope you find what you want one day.

[Jonn]

 

I know a lot of people here don’t like DRS. But still kinda wild.

[Orgfiller]

 

I know a lot of people here don’t like DRS. But still kinda wild.

 

It's laughable how much better the outfield defense is in comparison with just a season ago. Springer looks like Teoscar or Gurriel in comparison to KK and Varsho, and only a year ago he was the only saving grace because those two butchers were his partners on the corners.

[Stangstag]

 

I know a lot of people here don’t like DRS. But still kinda wild.

 

Shocked to see Robert there

[Jonn]

Shocked to see Robert there

 

He’s a much better Outfeilder than he’s given credit for. A lot of people just get the assumption that he’s lazy because of a couple of clips where he isn’t giving max effort. Especially the fly ball he made no attempt to run down despite the game being over regardless if he caught it or not.

[Orgfiller]

Shocked to see Robert there

 

How come? Robert has a reputation as a good defender and the metrics back it up. Exceptional athlete with good instincts, just happens to be injured all the time.

[Carlos Danger]

It's amazing at how good all these MLB first baseman are at this. I played some 1B in high school and college and it's hard as hell. But nearly every MLB 1B does it all the time.

 

If Hatteberg can do it, anyone can

[Daniel Labude]

Apparently the numbers have been run, 2-3 runs +/- per season from the best one above average to the worst.

 

I truly think you guys have a fundamentally flawed view of how well every 1b does with this type of play virtually all of the time. It has value, just not the value you want to give it because they all do it well.

 

The issue is, everything is an estimate basically, WAR is flawed in so many ways its hard to count. Its well documented from the way its calculated, to the variables that go into it, to how its used by the industry and by fans. It isn't the end all be all metric. Thinking critically on how it is wrong and what can be done better is the foundation of statistical improvement. Positional adjustments need to be changed fundamentally, defensive calculations need so much more detail, etc. Again at the end of the day WAR is the best we have at the moment, doesn't mean it is great or the final word. The view on 1B and even the details of other positions get lost and trivialized to run fast catch ball amazing. I dont follow that mindset. There are and will be better ways to come in the future and I maintain 1B defense will be a key shift in the metrics. Like always I will agree to disagree. Good discussions though

 

Connor and LTBF think they're smarter than the tangotiger, lol. Comedic gold.

 

As I mentioned above, the pathway to statistical improvement comes with challenging the status quo, especially one that has the documented flaws of WAR. No one believes they are smarter, well I dont. Im just willing to put forth my thoughts and opinions that challenge the hive. The comedic gold is how unopen you are to hearing viewpoints that differ from yours and how you are the definition of what is wrong with WAR at its core. You take it and your opinions/thoughts as gospel. No openness to the rest of the world. Trust me, there is a whole world out there waiting to teach you some day. Just open your eyes and accept people can have different views, opinions, and ideas. You don't even have to change your thoughts or ideas or opinions. Just listen and acknowledge some things aren't set in stone

[Daniel Labude]

Shocked to see Robert there

 

As was I. Good to see though. Hell of a player this year. One of the best offensive and defensive players

[Spanky99]

The issue is, everything is an estimate basically, WAR is flawed in so many ways its hard to count. Its well documented from the way its calculated, to the variables that go into it, to how its used by the industry and by fans. It isn't the end all be all metric. Thinking critically on how it is wrong and what can be done better is the foundation of statistical improvement. Positional adjustments need to be changed fundamentally, defensive calculations need so much more detail, etc. Again at the end of the day WAR is the best we have at the moment, doesn't mean it is great or the final word. The view on 1B and even the details of other positions get lost and trivialized to run fast catch ball amazing. I dont follow that mindset. There are and will be better ways to come in the future and I maintain 1B defense will be a key shift in the metrics. Like always I will agree to disagree. Good discussions though

 

 

 

As I mentioned above, the pathway to statistical improvement comes with challenging the status quo, especially one that has the documented flaws of WAR. No one believes they are smarter, well I dont. Im just willing to put forth my thoughts and opinions that challenge the hive. The comedic gold is how unopen you are to hearing viewpoints that differ from yours and how you are the definition of what is wrong with WAR at its core. You take it and your opinions/thoughts as gospel. No openness to the rest of the world. Trust me, there is a whole world out there waiting to teach you some day. Just open your eyes and accept people can have different views, opinions, and ideas. You don't even have to change your thoughts or ideas or opinions. Just listen and acknowledge some things aren't set in stone

 

[Jonn]

I can't wait until tomorrow so we can actually watch Baseball again.

[John_Havok]

The issue is, everything is an estimate basically, WAR is flawed in so many ways its hard to count. Its well documented from the way its calculated, to the variables that go into it, to how its used by the industry and by fans. It isn't the end all be all metric. Thinking critically on how it is wrong and what can be done better is the foundation of statistical improvement. Positional adjustments need to be changed fundamentally, defensive calculations need so much more detail, etc. Again at the end of the day WAR is the best we have at the moment, doesn't mean it is great or the final word. The view on 1B and even the details of other positions get lost and trivialized to run fast catch ball amazing. I dont follow that mindset. There are and will be better ways to come in the future and I maintain 1B defense will be a key shift in the metrics. Like always I will agree to disagree. Good discussions though

 

 

 

As I mentioned above, the pathway to statistical improvement comes with challenging the status quo, especially one that has the documented flaws of WAR. No one believes they are smarter, well I dont. Im just willing to put forth my thoughts and opinions that challenge the hive. The comedic gold is how unopen you are to hearing viewpoints that differ from yours and how you are the definition of what is wrong with WAR at its core. You take it and your opinions/thoughts as gospel. No openness to the rest of the world. Trust me, there is a whole world out there waiting to teach you some day. Just open your eyes and accept people can have different views, opinions, and ideas. You don't even have to change your thoughts or ideas or opinions. Just listen and acknowledge some things aren't set in stone

 

Do you think these guys just come up with one formula that kinda works and then never touch it again without considering other things or possible flaws? Or is it possible, they have access to far more information and data than you and your assumptions and have already done as many calculations so professional economists and statisticians can with what they had.

 

The man literally said they are constantly working on new ways to evaluate these things now that they have access to all the Statcast metrics and literally released two new metrics on baseball savant this morning.

 

So yes, of course I know the metrics aren’t perfect, but that doesn’t mean you should expect some massive changes in defensive value based on your feelings. Chances are any changes to defensive value with all this new info will be minimal and would amount to refining what the current metrics reflect, not blowing them up and realizing that their current +/- 2 or 3 runs on scooping is suddenly going to be +/- 15-20 runs.

[Spanky99]

I can't wait until tomorrow so we can actually watch Baseball again.

 

Amen to that, it's weird coming out of the break and the Jays haven't announced their probables for this series yet.

[Daniel Labude]

Do you think these guys just come up with one formula that kinda works and then never touch it again without considering other things or possible flaws? Or is it possible, they have access to far more information and data than you and your assumptions and have already done as many calculations so professional economists and statisticians can with what they had.

 

The man literally said they are constantly working on new ways to evaluate these things now that they have access to all the Statcast metrics and literally released two new metrics on baseball savant this morning.

 

So yes, of course I know the metrics aren’t perfect, but that doesn’t mean you should expect some massive changes in defensive value based on your feelings. Chances are any changes to defensive value with all this new info will be minimal and would amount to refining what the current metrics reflect, not blowing them up and realizing that their current +/- 2 or 3 runs on scooping is suddenly going to be +/- 15-20 runs.

 

 

You went off into left field with most of this so I'll bring it back

 

Yes I am aware of how statistics are created and continuously worked on

 

Its more than a feeling

 

If you remove or fix positional adjustment and how defensive value is determined there would be a significant change in the WAR values

 

I get it, you don't agree with the core concepts, but the issues at hand have been documented. I have already said currently its the best we have. It 100% will change in the future and 1B value will see a significant increase depending on how it changes

[Spanky99]

Jays moves over the AS break...

 

07/10/23 Toronto Blue Jays activated RHP Jay Jackson from the paternity list.

 

07/10/23 Toronto Blue Jays activated RF George Springer from the paternity list.

 

07/10/23 Toronto Blue Jays optioned 2B Ernie Clement to Buffalo Bisons.

 

07/10/23 Toronto Blue Jays optioned RHP Bowden Francis to Buffalo Bisons.

 

07/09/23 Toronto Blue Jays sent LHP Hyun Jin Ryu on a rehab assignment to Dunedin Blue Jays.

 

07/09/23 Toronto Blue Jays optioned RHP Zach Pop to Buffalo Bisons.

[jerb]

[Laika]

Gross

[BTS]

 

Most teams at lest colour match. This is hideous.

[Spanky99]

[L54]

The Jays couldn’t get Bud Light to put a patch on their sleeves?