General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Laika]

We need to start a thread "Predict the 2026 Jays" lol. Glass half full, empty and mid takes.

 

I'd truly love to see a solid realistic, optimistic case laid out. Yes its a couple years away but:

 

- The farm impact cupboard is relatively bare. Orelvis has a AA 121 wRC+ and has cut his K rate down. Sign of life there.

- The payroll is already high, even with Ryu coming off for '24. Arb year raises will eat into that savings.

- Belt and KK off the books, but have to replaced.

- Chapman is gone for '24.

- Jano not extended and FA for '25 season.

- Whit is gone for '24 as I dont see us picking up that option - Biggio and Espy are not producing what we hoped at 2B.

- Our FA signings aren't getting any younger and the back half of those cost commitments is always more risky. Springer etc.

- I don't think either Bo/Vlad will be extended for anything other than a major over pay. They are going to test the FA market end of '25.

- Manoah- The impact SP they drafted and sort of developed is MLB MIA for an indefinite period. Pearson looks like he may be something finally.

- Ricky having arm issues. He might be impacting. But so much risk with arms they are hard to bank on.

 

A lot can change in a couple years. We are going to need some breaks and found money surprises like Romano.

 

If Atkins is good at anything it's focusing on the MLB roster and plugging holes on a year to year basis.

 

People have said he's bad at spending money but really the opposite is true. He has made more great decisions than poor decisions when it comes to spending money. This is evident from just focusing on the big choices like letting Ray and Matz walk, signing Gausman. Springer and Bassitt contracts look decent.

Chapman and Merrifield trades were good.

Berrios extension looks better now.

Personally, I think even Kikuchi is almost earning his $$ this season. His fWAR is negative but his RA9 WAR is +0.8 so far. His xFIP is the same as his ERA, which is solid enough.

 

Lots of complaints about the bullpen construction but at least that is one of the least important parts of the team. And it's fine/average. And there are still come shrewd acquisitions in the pen even if Pop/Cimber/Bass look like flops at the moment. Richards looks great this year, Swanson looks great.

 

2026 is definitely a critical year. 2025 will be the last year for this core. In 2026 they will have Springer and Goose but they might not be impact players by then. Berrios should be fine. Varsho, Kirk, Manoah, and Pearson. Everyone else of significance potentially gone.... but, frankly, the only ones you might even WANT in 2026 and forward are Vlad and Bo.

 

So again it just comes back to Vlad and Bo. If Shatkins manages to extend Bo, everything looks different and you build that next five year core around Old Bo.

Similar idea for Vlad, but that plan is conditional on Vlad developing. Right now he is not a "build around" player.

 

As far as the farm goes, I think it's probably a lot better than the current "snapshot" makes us think.

[Laika]

This is looking a bit too realistic for my liking. I was really hoping my boys would get to see the Jays win the World Series when they were young (like I did) and that would cement their love for the team/game. That just seems quite unlikely at this time, as it appears we've pissed away the opportunity we had. At least I got them to some playoff games along the way.

 

They get two more kicks at the can even if 2023 doesn't work out. Nobody walking after 2023 is irreplaceable (Chapman is a big deal but it's one guy. Belt and KK and Whit were hired guns anyway.) And then the only guy walking after 2024 of importance is Jansen.

[BigCecil]

They get two more kicks at the can even if 2023 doesn't work out. Nobody walking after 2023 is irreplaceable (Chapman is a big deal but it's one guy. Belt and KK and Whit were hired guns anyway.) And then the only guy walking after 2024 of importance is Jansen.

 

Clearly we have two more kicks with this core post '23(far from over yet).

 

Unlikely they move Bo or Vlad unless its desperate times late '25 season.

 

Chappy is no small task to replace...same for Jano although less so. I could see Jano extended.

 

Pretty confident Whit, KK and Belt are solid parts Atkins can replace on short term signings or lower impact deals.

[jaysblue]

Yeah the Jays still have one or two more cracks at it after 2023, even if they fail to make the Postseason this year. It's a shame though they never took full advantage of the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons.

 

However, Springer will be older which is the concern. Gausman will be older and will he keep up this elite level of performance or regress a bit? He's at his best now so this is when you want to make a deep run. Bassitt will be older, same with Berrios. Who knows if Romano is still the closer by time 2025 rolls around since relievers can be volatile from year to year but he's been consistent. Jays won't have Chapman in 2024 and 2025, so he's a big piece to replace. Lastly, the Jays don't have a pipeline of talent in the minors waiting in the wings who could step in and make an impact right away.

 

Atkins has done a formidable job with FA signings and trades and keeping this team afloat around 90 wins every season. However in the AL East, they need to take that next step and become a 100 win team, which they haven't done in the last three seasons. Also, with the Rays around and Orioles likely set to improve, the Yankees always spending, 90 wins in the AL East isn't enough.

[Stangstag]

Yeah the Jays still have one or two more cracks at it after 2023, even if they fail to make the Postseason this year. It's a shame though they never took full advantage of the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons.

 

However, Springer will be older which is the concern. Gausman will be older and will he keep up this elite level of performance or regress a bit? He's at his best now so this is when you want to make a deep run. Bassitt will be older, same with Berrios. Who knows if Romano is still the closer by time 2025 rolls around since relievers can be volatile from year to year but he's been consistent. Jays won't have Chapman in 2024 and 2025, so he's a big piece to replace. Lastly, the Jays don't have a pipeline of talent in the minors waiting in the wings who could step in and make an impact right away.

 

Atkins has done a formidable job with FA signings and trades and keeping this team afloat around 90 wins every season. However in the AL East, they need to take that next step and become a 100 win team, which they haven't done in the last three seasons. Also, with the Rays around and Orioles likely set to improve, the Yankees always spending, 90 wins in the AL East isn't enough.

 

Do they though??

 

How many World Series winners in the last 10 years have won 100 games?

 

Making the playoffs is enough, and hope for some magic

[jaysblue]

Do they though??

 

How many World Series winners in the last 10 years have won 100 games?

 

Making the playoffs is enough, and hope for some magic

 

They don't have to win 100 games literally. I meant it more as taking that next level from a fringe Wild Card contender to becoming a World Series contender/elite team. But yeah in the AL East, 90 wins likely doesn't win the division, therefore it's a tougher path to get through.

 

Now you're going to say some fringe Wild Card contenders have won a World Series before, which is true. Agreed, just get into the Postseason and anything can happen. A little luck and getting hot at the right time.

 

You're satisfied with this team fighting for a Wild Card berth and think that's good enough rather than being an elite dominant team. The issue with the Jays is they haven't taken that next level yet, and its a shame with the pieces they have on this roster. Again your homerism showing as you won't be critical of this front office or question them at all. Rather if this Jays team misses the 2023 Postseason or gets eliminated in the Wildcard rounds the next season or so, isn't that a failure of this FO to take this team to the next level?

[jaysblue]

Do they though??

 

How many World Series winners in the last 10 years have won 100 games?

 

Making the playoffs is enough, and hope for some magic

 

They don't have to win 100 games literally. I meant it more as taking that next level from a fringe Wild Card contender to becoming a World Series contender/elite team. But yeah in the AL East, 90 wins likely doesn't win the division, therefore it's a tougher path to get through.

 

Now you're going to say some fringe Wild Card contenders have won a World Series before, which is true. Agreed, just get into the Postseason and anything can happen. A little luck and getting hot at the right time.

 

You're satisfied with this team fighting for a Wild Card berth and think that's good enough rather than being an elite dominant team. The issue with the Jays is they haven't taken that next level yet, and its a shame with the pieces they have on this roster. Again your homerism showing as you won't be critical of this front office or question them at all. Rather if this Jays team misses the 2023 Postseason or gets eliminated in the Wildcard rounds the next season or so, isn't that a failure of this FO to take this team to the next level?

[Laika]

Clearly we have two more kicks with this core post '23(far from over yet).

 

Unlikely they move Bo or Vlad unless its desperate times late '25 season.

 

Chappy is no small task to replace...same for Jano although less so. I could see Jano extended.

 

Pretty confident Whit, KK and Belt are solid parts Atkins can replace on short term signings or lower impact deals.

 

Chapman is a 4 win player getting paid like a 1.5 to 2 WAR player.

 

Definitely not easy to find 2.5 surplus value wins but.... it's possible. The most likely avenue is not even direct replacement. You just put something league average in the 3B hole and then seek the missing value from free agency, anywhere on the roster, or develop it.

[jaysblue]

Chapman is a 4 win player getting paid like a 1.5 to 2 WAR player.

 

Definitely not easy to find 2.5 surplus value wins but.... it's possible. The most likely avenue is not even direct replacement. You just put something league average in the 3B hole and then seek the missing value from free agency, anywhere on the roster, or develop it.

 

Billy Beane: "Guys, you're still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can't do it, and we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate."

 

Need to re-create Chapman in the aggregate. There is no identical 3B like him available and even if there was, good chance the Jays can't afford him.

[jaysblue]

Chapman is a 4 win player getting paid like a 1.5 to 2 WAR player.

 

Definitely not easy to find 2.5 surplus value wins but.... it's possible. The most likely avenue is not even direct replacement. You just put something league average in the 3B hole and then seek the missing value from free agency, anywhere on the roster, or develop it.

 

Billy Beane: "Guys, you're still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can't do it, and we can't do it. Now, what we might be able to do is re-create him. Re-create him in the aggregate."

 

Need to re-create Chapman in the aggregate. There is no identical 3B like him available and even if there was, good chance the Jays can't afford him.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't think the Jays have done a great job. Almost nothing of any impact has come through the system since Vlad and Bo. Kirk and Manoah are really the only two, and they've taken massive steps back this year. They've basically had to bring in an entire pitching staff from outside the org because they haven't been able to develop anything. And that's been costly, and resulted in a lack of organizational depth. Toronto looks like a team in the middle of a ~5 year competitive window right now than they do a team that's going to stay perpetually competitive.

 

Yeah, have to agree. Not impressed with the Jays drafting and developing under this regime.

 

Still blows my mind that they don't have a single home grown pitcher on this roster right now except for Nate Pearson.

Zero homegrown starters in MLB and nothing highly rated sitting in AAA either.

 

In eight friggin years.

 

Still have a pretty good baseball team, but it's very expensive and only 3rd or 4th best in our division with a pretty weak prospect pool to keep it at the level it's at, never mind improve it.

[glory]

We need to start a thread "Predict the 2026 Jays" lol. Glass half full, empty and mid takes.

 

I'd truly love to see a solid realistic, optimistic case laid out. Yes its a couple years away but:

 

- The farm impact cupboard is relatively bare. Orelvis has a AA 121 wRC+ and has cut his K rate down. Sign of life there.

- The payroll is already high, even with Ryu coming off for '24. Arb year raises will eat into that savings.

- Belt and KK off the books, but have to replaced.

- Chapman is gone for '24.

- Jano not extended and FA for '25 season.

- Whit is gone for '24 as I dont see us picking up that option - Biggio and Espy are not producing what we hoped at 2B.

- Our FA signings aren't getting any younger and the back half of those cost commitments is always more risky. Springer etc.

- I don't think either Bo/Vlad will be extended for anything other than a major over pay. They are going to test the FA market end of '25.

- Manoah- The impact SP they drafted and sort of developed is MLB MIA for an indefinite period. Pearson looks like he may be something finally.

- Ricky having arm issues. He might be impacting. But so much risk with arms they are hard to bank on.

 

A lot can change in a couple years. We are going to need some breaks and found money surprises like Romano.

 

I'd be very (pleasantly) surprised if the Jays are still a good team in 2026, but it's going to depend on extensions to Vlad/Bo and what type of internal development can take place from now until 2026. The one saving grace for 2024-25 is that Atkins is pretty good with short term big league moves so I'm sure he'll adequately replace whoever he has to replace. The key to determining 2026-beyond is how he can incorporate young talent into the mix and what kind of young talent. It was easier to use young prospects in 2019-20 when there was no expectations. Will he put Orelvis at 3B in 2024 if he does well in AAA to end the season? That's a risk for a team with a short window. It would be nice if they could lose Chapman and Merrifield, and plug in Orelvis and Barger/Schneider without missing a beat, though that seems way too pie in the sky.

 

If I had to bet, I'd say 2026 will resemble 2017-18 in terms of trying to squeeze more juice out of something that has no more juice to give, but 2.5 years is a long time in baseball. It took Orelvis only a month to be a prospect again so a lot can change.

[Carlos Danger]

Lots of complaints about the bullpen construction but at least that is one of the least important parts of the team

 

This is why Laika is not running a pro baseball team. That attidude which was prevelant for a time, went the way of the dinosours for the really good FOs in baseball.

 

With the average SP only going 5 IP these days, on a good day, BPs are HUGE.

 

This is why the Detroit Tigers teams never won it all.. Team's that parallel the Jays in a lot of ways.. They had Miggy, a generational 3b go to 1B, they had an awsesome starting staff and very solid positional players to support Miggy.. But the Pen sucked, and the pen cost them year after year..

[BigCecil]

Do they though??

 

How many World Series winners in the last 10 years have won 100 games?

 

Making the playoffs is enough, and hope for some magic

 

Honestly I agree with this and I don’t. Love to see some math on it. The number wins correlation to playoff advancement. It’s funny PHI and HOU were opposite ends of the spectrum in 2022 and the cream rose to the top for the ring. With ATL and NATs you could argue “just get in and win”. Id rather be a 100 ish win team and count on those probabilities of winning than be a “hope to get hot at the right time” team. Obviously I could give a s*** how we did it if we win. Having said all that, I’m a Bruins fan still suffering PTSD from the Presidents Trophy curse.

[Laika]

This is why Laika is not running a pro baseball team. That attidude which was prevelant for a time, went the way of the dinosours for the really good FOs in baseball.

 

With the average SP only going 5 IP these days, on a good day, BPs are HUGE.

 

This is why the Detroit Tigers teams never won it all.. Team's that parallel the Jays in a lot of ways.. They had Miggy, a generational 3b go to 1B, they had an awsesome starting staff and very solid positional players to support Miggy.. But the Pen sucked, and the pen cost them year after year..

 

More than one way to skin a cat

 

If you think the pen is even remotely close to as important as the position player core, or the starting rotation, man do I have some s*** to sell you...

[connorp]

More than one way to skin a cat

 

If you think the pen is even remotely close to as important as the position player core, or the starting rotation, man do I have some s*** to sell you...

 

Maybe you couldn’t run a baseball team, but you could be a professional straw man builder as an alternative profession

[Laika]

Maybe you couldn’t run a baseball team, but you could be a professional straw man builder as an alternative profession

 

that is literally my job right now

[Stangstag]

They don't have to win 100 games literally. I meant it more as taking that next level from a fringe Wild Card contender to becoming a World Series contender/elite team. But yeah in the AL East, 90 wins likely doesn't win the division, therefore it's a tougher path to get through.

 

Now you're going to say some fringe Wild Card contenders have won a World Series before, which is true. Agreed, just get into the Postseason and anything can happen. A little luck and getting hot at the right time.

 

You're satisfied with this team fighting for a Wild Card berth and think that's good enough rather than being an elite dominant team. The issue with the Jays is they haven't taken that next level yet, and its a shame with the pieces they have on this roster. Again your homerism showing as you won't be critical of this front office or question them at all. Rather if this Jays team misses the 2023 Postseason or gets eliminated in the Wildcard rounds the next season or so, isn't that a failure of this FO to take this team to the next level?

 

Its not homerism dude, I watch almost all the playoff games every year. There’s always mediocre/sub-par teams that make a deep run.

 

Obviously being an “elite” team gives you a better chance at making a deeper run (2022 Astros) but it is by no means a requirement for winning the World Series. Phillies ALMOST beat them. Braves 2021. Dodgers had many elite teams and only won once. 2019 Nationals. 2015 Royals. 2014 Royals came close. 2014 Giants. 2011 Cardinals.

 

Tons of “ok” teams won it all or came very close.

[John_Havok]

Maybe you couldn’t run a baseball team, but you could be a professional straw man builder as an alternative profession

 

Dude's a lawyer, straw man building is their only function.

[Stangstag]

And yes if the Jays miss the playoffs or get bounced in round 1, that is a failure and people in the front office should be fired.

 

I am critical of the front office when warranted, I am not overly critical about things that go wrong unexpectedly (like Manoah falling off a cliff or Varsho not meeting his expectations so far)

[Jonn]

Would be sick to win 100 games though. Must feel good to be comfortably locked into a playoff spot. You can just enjoy the season and stat stuffing with zero anxiety or worries. Would love to experience it just once.

[Stangstag]

Honestly I agree with this and I don’t. Love to see some math on it. The number wins correlation to playoff advancement. It’s funny PHI and HOU were opposite ends of the spectrum in 2022 and the cream rose to the top for the ring. With ATL and NATs you could argue “just get in and win”. Id rather be a 100 ish win team and count on those probabilities of winning than be a “hope to get hot at the right time” team. Obviously I could give a s*** how we did it if we win. Having said all that, I’m a Bruins fan still suffering PTSD from the Presidents Trophy curse.

 

Of course i’d rather be a 100 win team, but those kinda teams aren’t built very often and normally aren’t sustainable.

 

However it looks like our low to mid 90s win team isn’t looking sustainable either…

[Stangstag]

Would be sick to win 100 games though. Must feel good to be comfortably locked into a playoff spot. You can just enjoy the season and stat stuffing with zero anxiety or worries. Would love to experience it just once.

 

It would be nice. Seems the Jays always have to struggle in this division

[John_Havok]

Honestly I agree with this and I don’t. Love to see some math on it. The number wins correlation to playoff advancement. It’s funny PHI and HOU were opposite ends of the spectrum in 2022 and the cream rose to the top for the ring. With ATL and NATs you could argue “just get in and win”. Id rather be a 100 ish win team and count on those probabilities of winning than be a “hope to get hot at the right time” team. Obviously I could give a s*** how we did it if we win. Having said all that, I’m a Bruins fan still suffering PTSD from the Presidents Trophy curse.

 

I think the over arching point is that focusing on X number of wins to say that a team is good or not is not truly focusing on the right details. Yes, wins are needed to get into the playoffs, so in that sense sure, they need to focus on at least building a team that can win as many games as needed to get in.

 

But to say they need to be at least a 100 win team to be a WS contender... doesnt matter. A 95 win team in the AL East is likely a better team than a 95 win team coming out of the Central in either League (like that would happen anyway...). Especially in the playoffs where truly only your best 3 starters really matter, and you cant sub guys out and send them down and call someone else up multiple times a year like many teams do in the regular season to ensure maximum advantage in the bullpen or batting order.

 

Just get in. Being a 110 win team vs a 100 win team vs a 95 win team really doesnt matter a whole lot in the playoffs. All that is for is ticket sales and public image.

[Jays333]

Atkins has proven he can make the trades and FA signing to keep the product on the field competitive. However the current snap shot of the farm system has got to be in the lower half of the league talent wise.

 

This whole sustainable winning and constant flow of young talent he has talked about seems to be a mirage. At this rate I have no doubt we will regress into a .500 and worse teams by 2025, 26, 27. You just cannot sustain a playoff team by FA signings and trades, unless you are the Yankees, but even they have a decent farm.

 

The best teams in the league have great farm systems that are constantly being replenished with new young talent. I truly believe if Atkins gets s*** canned and someone is hired who can take the farm to a good-elite level our little 5 year window can be extended drastically.

 

Which raises an interesting question. If we are fighting for a 3rd wildcard spot all season something that didn't even exist a couple years ago, would you rather miss and have Atkins fired, or make it and likely keep him around for another season or two.

[Omar]

Posted this in the wrong thread, anyways….

 

This is a good discussion and I have mentioned a while ago that 2026 could be turning point for this team and not in a good way. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Shapiro and/or Atkins jumps ship by then.

 

In terms of projections we may as well eliminate any talk of the bullpen. It is a highly fungible asset year over year and there is no point trying to prognosticate what the future holds there. Even Atkins doesn’t know right now

Edited June 13, 2023 by Omar

[jaysblue]

Posted this in the wrong thread, anyways….

 

This is a good discussion and I have mentioned a while ago that 2026 could be turning point for this team and not in a good way. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of Shapiro and/or Atkins jumps ship by then.

 

In terms of projections we may as well eliminate any talk of the bullpen. It is a highly fungible asset year over year and there is no point trying to prognosticate what the future holds there. Even Atkins doesn’t know right no

 

Once Shapiro is done with his Rogers Centre renovations, he'll look to renovate another ballpark.

 

This guy should have his own show on the HGTV channel.

[jaysblue]

I think the over arching point is that focusing on X number of wins to say that a team is good or not is not truly focusing on the right details. Yes, wins are needed to get into the playoffs, so in that sense sure, they need to focus on at least building a team that can win as many games as needed to get in.

 

But to say they need to be at least a 100 win team to be a WS contender... doesnt matter. A 95 win team in the AL East is likely a better team than a 95 win team coming out of the Central in either League (like that would happen anyway...). Especially in the playoffs where truly only your best 3 starters really matter, and you cant sub guys out and send them down and call someone else up multiple times a year like many teams do in the regular season to ensure maximum advantage in the bullpen or batting order.

 

Just get in. Being a 110 win team vs a 100 win team vs a 95 win team really doesnt matter a whole lot in the playoffs. All that is for is ticket sales and public image.

 

When I was using wins, it was more in the meaning of taking this team to the next level. From where the Jays are now, to a World Series contender. The way this team has been playing, they don't look like World Series contenders in comparison to other teams. Yes things can change and if they start playing better and to expectations, then things could look different maybe next month.

 

Yeah I agree a 90-95 win team in the AL East is better than a division winner in the AL or NL Central lets say. Also, yes just get in and anything can happen. We've seen teams get hot at the right time and have everything click in the Postseason.

 

Right now currently, Blue Jays wouldn't be in the Postseason. Still have a little less than 4 months and hopefully with an easier schedule on the horizon, this team can make up some ground. Would rather see them comfortably holding the 1st or 2nd WC seed rather than fighting for the 3rd seed. If this team fails to make the Postseason or fails to make it out of the Wildcard/ALDS, then this team didn't get to the next level.

[jaysblue]

Would be sick to win 100 games though. Must feel good to be comfortably locked into a playoff spot. You can just enjoy the season and stat stuffing with zero anxiety or worries. Would love to experience it just once.

 

Yeah that would be nice but definitely difficult in the AL East. I thought the Blue Jays had the potential to be a 100 win team but they've underachieved and haven't been consistent enough with this current group. Also nice to bank wins early in April/May so you have some more breathing room later on if you hit rough stretches or lose some key players on the IL for a bit.

[John_Havok]

When I was using wins, it was more in the meaning of taking this team to the next level. From where the Jays are now, to a World Series contender. The way this team has been playing, they don't look like World Series contenders in comparison to other teams. Yes things can change and if they start playing better and to expectations, then things could look different maybe next month.

 

Yeah I agree a 90-95 win team in the AL East is better than a division winner in the AL or NL Central lets say. Also, yes just get in and anything can happen. We've seen teams get hot at the right time and have everything click in the Postseason.

 

Right now currently, Blue Jays wouldn't be in the Postseason. Still have a little less than 4 months and hopefully with an easier schedule on the horizon, this team can make up some ground. Would rather see them comfortably holding the 1st or 2nd WC seed rather than fighting for the 3rd seed. If this team fails to make the Postseason or fails to make it out of the Wildcard/ALDS, then this team didn't get to the next level.

 

Yeah, it's frustrating for sure to be where the team is right now, especially when you can see guys like Vlad who should be a perennial MVP candidate with 6+ fWAR, and he's hitting like an average 1B maybe putting up 2.5, Manoah falling off a cliff... hell, just those 2 things alone has probably cost the Jays in the neighborhood of 5 wins in the first 70 games.