General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[max silver]

Trouble is that he CANT do damage on bad pitches. He can make contact on pretty much anything, but he’s swinging at too many bad pitches and not barreling those.

 

There are a few zones where he does damage out of the zone. And there is one zone in particular where he can do a lot of damage on bad pitches. He just REALLY needs to stop chasing those away pitches.

 

[Grant77]

Just look at the ROS projections and both (Suarez/Wong) are pretty far off.

 

Idk why you’d say you agree with Teo’s but not theirs

 

ZIPS has Suarez and Wong with a 99 and 93 wRC+, respectively. Neither of them have been good for quite some time and I don't really believe in their ability to turn their seasons around.

 

Teo has been consistently good for several consecutive years and far better than either Wong or Suarez. I believe in his bat.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, that's just what I see.

[Stangstag]

There are a few zones where he does damage out of the zone. And there is one zone in particular where he can do a lot of damage on bad pitches. He just REALLY needs to stop chasing those away pitches.

 

 

Maybe he needs to stand closer to the plate like Rizzo does

[John_Havok]

There are a few zones where he does damage out of the zone. And there is one zone in particular where he can do a lot of damage on bad pitches. He just REALLY needs to stop chasing those away pitches.

 

 

The fairly big problem with xWOBA though, especially relating to Vlad, is it doesnt take spray angle into account. only EV and launch angle. Bad swing decisions really negate some of the xWOBA for sure as when you swing at crap pitches, you would definitely lose even more predictability of where it's going.

 

That heat map also doesn't tell you how many pitches he's seen in those zones, and I would wager there's probably waaaaaay more on that outer half off the plate than in off the plate

[max silver]

The fairly big problem with xWOBA though, especially relating to Vlad, is it doesnt take spray angle into account. only EV and launch angle. Bad swing decisions really negate some of the xWOBA for sure as when you swing at crap pitches, you would definitely lose even more predictability of where it's going.

 

That heat map also doesn't tell you how many pitches he's seen in those zones, and I would wager there's probably waaaaaay more on that outer half off the plate than in off the plate

 

WOBA/xWOBA pretty much paint the same picture.

 

[John_Havok]

WOBA/xWOBA pretty much paint the same picture.

 

 

Is there a heat map that shows how many pitches he has seen in each of those zones?

[Spanky99]

Aaaaaand DeGrom is done for the year (and probably next)

 

Oof...

[BigCecil]

Manoah off the reservation but for the first time the signings of Gausman, Berrios, Hound...with a Kooch kicker all firing on most of their cylinders for the first time.

 

Coulda been much worse. Coulda signed DeGrom.

[John_Havok]

Manoah off the reservation but for the first time the signings of Gausman, Berrios, Hound...with a Kooch kicker all firing on most of their cylinders for the first time.

 

Coulda been much worse. Coulda signed DeGrom.

 

Or Ray

[The_DH]

We are dangerously thin in starting pitching. May need to comb through whatever's left of the free agent market.

[John_Havok]

We are dangerously thin in starting pitching. May need to comb through whatever's left of the free agent market.

 

Don’t think there is a free agent starting market at this point. Realistically, this guys being DFA to claim, trade for someone or call up your best farm guy that you don’t think will make an ass of himself.

 

Signing any SP straight to an MLB deal would require another DFA, and they’re running thin on those available. Thornton, Jackson and Hatch are the last 3 candidates and they’re already going to need 2 of those for Green and Ryu.

 

Granted theses thing’s generally take care of themselves with additional injuries, but…quite honestly the Jays pitching staff health as a whole over the past few seasons has been remarkably good.

[The_DH]

Nah, I was thinking of a Chris Archer type. Guys like him for Buffalo to start.

[John_Havok]

Nah, I was thinking of a Chris Archer type. Guys like him for Buffalo to start.

 

Yeah, I think if guys like him were willing to sign a minor league deal they likely would have done so already. Look at Hutchison, as an example, he just opted out of a minor league deal and he’s demonstrably worse than Archer as of last season at the MLB level.

 

Is Archer even pitching anywhere right now?

[Spanky99]

Yeah, I think if guys like him were willing to sign a minor league deal they likely would have done so already. Look at Hutchison, as an example, he just opted out of a minor league deal and he’s demonstrably worse than Archer as of last season at the MLB level.

 

Is Archer even pitching anywhere right now?

 

Nope.

[AMS528]

Looking at the unsigned former MLB pitcher pile you have Michael Pineda, Mike Minor and that's basically it. It's uh not good.

 

Can't believe that Mitch White went from being ok, to literally worthless in less than a season for no particular reason at all.

[John_Havok]

Looking at the unsigned former MLB pitcher pile you have Michael Pineda, Mike Minor and that's basically it. It's uh not good.

 

Can't believe that Mitch White went from being ok, to literally worthless in less than a season for no particular reason at all.

 

Mike Montgomery just signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers, and he hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2020. That’s how thin it is out there right now.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Did nobody grab Plesac?

 

I can't believe the Jays wouldn't pick him up with their thin starting pitching. If any of the 4 starters left get hurt we might be boned.

[max silver]

Looking at the unsigned former MLB pitcher pile you have Michael Pineda, Mike Minor and that's basically it. It's uh not good.

 

Can't believe that Mitch White went from being ok, to literally worthless in less than a season for no particular reason at all.

 

White hurt his shoulder so you would think that has to be a factor here. Hopefully he can bounce back with a full offseason of training but he doesn't look promising for this season.

[Stangstag]

Looking at the unsigned former MLB pitcher pile you have Michael Pineda, Mike Minor and that's basically it. It's uh not good.

 

Can't believe that Mitch White went from being ok, to literally worthless in less than a season for no particular reason at all.

 

Didn’t Manoah go from solid to literally worthless in less than a season for no particular reason?

[max silver]

Is there a heat map that shows how many pitches he has seen in each of those zones?

 

You can find Statcast zones here:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb

[AMS528]

Didn’t Manoah go from solid to literally worthless in less than a season for no particular reason?

 

Good point. Very unfortunate thing to happen twice in to start a year, especially when you're relying on one of them to replace the other in that kind of situation (really the expectation would have been Mitch White replaced Kikuchi who is the same as last year).

[Stangstag]

Good point. Very unfortunate thing to happen twice in to start a year, especially when you're relying on one of them to replace the other in that kind of situation (really the expectation would have been Mitch White replaced Kikuchi who is the same as last year).

 

Pretty much happened with Berrios last year too. Seems like we get absolutely f***ed on 1 or 2 guys each year completely dropping the ball. I guess that balances out the injury luck

[Omar]

Looking at the unsigned former MLB pitcher pile you have Michael Pineda, Mike Minor and that's basically it. It's uh not good.

 

Can't believe that Mitch White went from being ok, to literally worthless in less than a season for no particular reason at all.

 

Mitch White last season with the Jays: 43 innings pitched. 37 runs allowed. 7.74era, 49 era+

 

He was not ok.

 

If you really want a punch in the gut, take a look at how Nick Frasso is doing this year.

[BCZ]

Imagine where this team would be if we had 2021-22 Manoah... unreal

[mellowgold]

Imagine where this team would be if we had 2021-22 Manoah... unreal

 

And 2021 Vlad

[John_Havok]

Imagine where this team would be if we had 2021-22 Manoah... unreal

 

Or 2022 Berrios…Kikuchi….

[mellowgold]

Speaking of Vlad, maybe it's time we drop him down the lineup. It worked for Bo last year. Not that he's necessarily been bad but the guy has one homer off a pitcher since May 4. That's pretty shocking. Maybe it helps him return to the Vlad we need him to be.

 

Springer

Bo

Belt

Chappy

Vlad

Varsho

Etc

 

Just until he gets back to Vladding.

[AMS528]

Mitch White last season with the Jays: 43 innings pitched. 37 runs allowed. 7.74era, 49 era+

 

He was not ok.

 

If you really want a punch in the gut, take a look at how Nick Frasso is doing this year.

 

I'm aware, but also he was ok with the Dodgers. And he's been terrible since. So the hope was maybe he'd recapture whatever form he'd had while with the Dodgers.

[wilko]

Mitch White last season with the Jays: 43 innings pitched. 37 runs allowed. 7.74era, 49 era+

 

He was not ok.

 

If you really want a punch in the gut, take a look at how Nick Frasso is doing this year.

 

Don't remind me.

[John_Havok]

Speaking of Vlad, maybe it's time we drop him down the lineup. It worked for Bo last year. Not that he's necessarily been bad but the guy has one homer off a pitcher since May 4. That's pretty shocking. Maybe it helps him return to the Vlad we need him to be.

 

Springer

Bo

Belt

Chappy

Vlad

Varsho

Etc

 

Just until he gets back to Vladding.

 

I think the chances of Vlad dropping down the lineup is about the same chances as Springer earlier this season when he was awful