Around Baseball 2023

[Jimcanuck]

I tend to agree with you here. The team is rapidly approaching a point where it's necessary to maximize the strength of the on the field roster for the next few seasons as there is a very good chance it will be necessary to tear things down and rebuild the team. It's entirely possible that neither of Vlad or Bo will be long term Blue Jays and as such I feel this is an important offseason to add the best talent available to maximize the team's chance of success in this short window. If the team needs to undertake a rebuild having guys like Chapman for an extra 3 or 4 years and Bellinger for 5 or 6 years after the window closes won't be a huge deal because the team won't likely be competitive for 3-4 years anyway and these deals will be closer to expiring by the time the team hits another competitive cycle.

 

There are not really perfect players available next offseason to add to the roster either so I don't feel the need to wait until next year. The big free agents that are available in the next offseason come with just as many question marks as the likes of Bellinger and Chapman do right now. Altuve has made a career of seasons like the one that Bellinger just produced where he's constantly running huge gulfs between his results and expected stats, Bregman has been steadily declining and is a Boras client so the contract ask is going to be obscene, Alonso is a 1B who is likely a 3ish win player but also a Boras client, Soto is so bad defensively he's supplied almost identical defensive value to Ohtani the last two seasons and will be an almost impossible sign etc. I think the club may actually be better served to add the potential impact talent that's available to them right now despite the question marks.

 

This is an excellent post

[Laika]

Last 3 years combined he's -5 DRS, -1 UZR, and 13 OAA. He's probably a plus but not elite corner OF, but gets talked about like an elite CF defender. I think his reputation is still living off 2019 when everyone was shocked that a career 1B prospect weirdly put up monster defensive stats.

 

Probably ages defensively just like George Springer did

 

Which would be FINE of course but after George's good 2019 in CF, he has been acceptable at best. Not really an asset out there.

[BigCecil]

If Max is however old he is and hasn’t realized he’s stupid, he’s not going to realize what he said is stupid

 

Max is far from stupid. He is however the all time champ of arguments of convenience glass half full cherry picking.

[connorp]

Max is far from stupid. He is however the all time champ of arguments of convenience glass half full cherry picking.

 

I’ll settle for this

[max silver]

Max is far from stupid. He is however the all time champ of arguments of convenience glass half full cherry picking.

 

Hey what can I say, I'm a bit of an optimist.

[Stangstag]

This is stupid and you know it, max

 

You can carve up almost any player's season into little chunks and cherry pick it and weave in a narrative to make them look better or worse

 

Bellinger projects for 2.5 wins.

 

Injuries and ups and downs are literally part of the Bellinger experience. You can't ignore them.

 

And what does Vlad project for??

 

Now, can you tell me with a straight face that you think Vlad will out-WAR Bellinger next year?

[Terminator]

200M for a 2.5 WAR OF lol

[Jimcanuck]

200M for a 2.5 WAR OF lol

 

Now this here post is another great reason to go sign Bellinger

[Terminator]

And what does Vlad project for??

 

Now, can you tell me with a straight face that you think Vlad will out-WAR Bellinger next year?

 

Why would Vlad putting up more WAR than Bellinger shock you? It’s happened in 2 out of the last 3 years.

 

Not sure what that has to do with anything anyway.

[max silver]

Bellinger projects like this because his floor is low and his ceiling is high

 

He's a high stakes gamble and everyone knows it

 

No one will be shocked if he misses 2 months and slumps to a 1.5 WAR season and no one will be shocked if he plays good defsnee and hits well for 150 games at is worth 5 WAR and gets ASG/MVP/SS votes.

 

I just tend to think with where the club finds itself in the competitive cycle and need for potential impact Bellinger is a worthwhile gamble up to a point. He's the ultimate high risk high reward player but I'm kind of at the point where I'd like the team to take the shot if they can get the contract terms down to a mutually agreeable level.

 

Baseball contains a collection of good hit tool+high contact/low strikeout guys with lower exit velocities who have the ability to regularly park balls in the seats despite the uninspiring quality of contact. This includes players like Boegarts, Altuve, Arenado and even Jose Ramirez who have all experienced a pile of seasons where there is a massive gulf of 30 to 40 points or more between their WOBA and xWOBA levels. Bellinger just experienced one such season and given the similarities between his 2023 and the seasons that the previously mentioned group has often experienced this could be the type of result he's able to produce in a good season. I have a theory that there is a group of players who are outliers in terms of being able to regularly beat their expected stats by a large degree in a similar fashion to pitchers who are FIP beaters year over year. It's too early to tell if Bellinger could be one of these guys after a single season of running this type of profile though.

[Spanky__99]

How many Dodgers hats and jerseys will be sold in Japan this year???

 

They've already shattered the original 24Hr record when Ohtani signed, lol.

[Spanky__99]

I more or less agree with this

 

Although, not sure I would even extend Vlad

 

But I'm avoiding Bellinger and Chapman unless the cost is MUCH less than anticipated

 

I'm on this boat, now we wait forever with Boras in the driving seat on both players. This going to be a long winter.

 

I want zero part of a rebuild, though.

[BatFlip]

yes

 

I mean, he is a highly variable player, 2.5 is the most likely result.

 

but he's enough of an enigma that I'm not going to put money on a war projection or anything

 

Do you mean 2.5 WAR is the most likely average of possible outcomes, or you think 2.5 WAR is the most likely outcome? I agree, this guy is an enigma wrapped up in question marks. He could put up a 0 WAR season, a 2.5 WAR season, a 6 WAR season - I feel like none of these outcomes would be a surprise and all are equally possible.

 

It's hard for me to see him as acceptable gamble at the likely price tag ($160-$200M) and I don't think there's any statistical magic that indicates he's most likely 4-6 WAR player moving forward. I'd prefer they go the route of shorter term signings and save the payroll space for stronger FA classes next year and the year after that. It's just poor salary management to pay for the upside scenario on someone who has such a variability in possible production.

 

I'm still going to be pumped if we land him, I'll just be crossing my fingers and hoping the dice fall in our favour.

[jaysblue]

Yes. Jaysblue is advocating for sitting out this year's market and save the money for next year. This is what I was responding to originally.

 

I never said to sit out the market. I just said the Blue Jays should target players on one-year deals, so they have more money available for next offseason when the FA crop is a lot better in terms of elite players/pitchers. Even BTS pointed out the second tier of FA's in next years class are even better.

 

I'm all for signing Hoskins or JDM as a DH. Even if you have to "overpay" for them by a couple of million. Would only be a one-year deal, so that 20 or so million would be wiped off the books. Same with LF, where there are plenty of options of players who could sign one-year deals and provide solid value. You could even likely turn to the trade market as well let's say if the Jays prefer a bat like Kepler over some of the free agents.

 

3B will be the toughest position in 2024 to fill like I said. I would be down if Chapman came on a 3-4 year deal worth $20M AAV, but if he's sitting out for $100-150M, not worth it. Trade market is likely the best route and hope you can get a 2-3 WAR player to cover 3B, and make up for that lost WAR Chappy would provide elsewhere.

[Jays24]

Ya the smart longterm play would be to hand out 1/2 year deals but Atkins ass is on the line and they're trying to build hype around a fully renovated ballpark.

 

They will definitely make "splashy" moves. Now we all hope the moves aren't ones that f*** us longterm.

[BatFlip]

I never said to sit out the market. I just said the Blue Jays should target players on one-year deals, so they have more money available for next offseason when the FA crop is a lot better in terms of elite players/pitchers. Even BTS pointed out the second tier of FA's in next years class are even better.

 

I'm all for signing Hoskins or JDM as a DH. Even if you have to "overpay" for them by a couple of million. Would only be a one-year deal, so that 20 or so million would be wiped off the books. Same with LF, where there are plenty of options of players who could sign one-year deals and provide solid value. You could even likely turn to the trade market as well let's say if the Jays prefer a bat like Kepler over some of the free agents.

 

3B will be the toughest position in 2024 to fill like I said. I would be down if Chapman came on a 3-4 year deal worth $20M AAV, but if he's sitting out for $100-150M, not worth it. Trade market is likely the best route and hope you can get a 2-3 WAR player to cover 3B, and make up for that lost WAR Chappy would provide elsewhere.

 

 

I agree with all of this.

[Jimcanuck]

I never said to sit out the market. I just said the Blue Jays should target players on one-year deals, so they have more money available for next offseason when the FA crop is a lot better in terms of elite players/pitchers. Even BTS pointed out the second tier of FA's in next years class are even better.

 

I'm all for signing Hoskins or JDM as a DH. Even if you have to "overpay" for them by a couple of million. Would only be a one-year deal, so that 20 or so million would be wiped off the books. Same with LF, where there are plenty of options of players who could sign one-year deals and provide solid value. You could even likely turn to the trade market as well let's say if the Jays prefer a bat like Kepler over some of the free agents.

 

3B will be the toughest position in 2024 to fill like I said. I would be down if Chapman came on a 3-4 year deal worth $20M AAV, but if he's sitting out for $100-150M, not worth it. Trade market is likely the best route and hope you can get a 2-3 WAR player to cover 3B, and make up for that lost WAR Chappy would provide elsewhere.

 

Sure the Jays could get lucky with guys that are only good for a 1 year deal. Mediocrity is more likely. With a fairly short window and crappy farm, Jays need to aim higher IMO. And it seems they are taking this approach, being in on Ohtani and Yama.

[Spanky__99]

I remember thinking that about Anthony Rendon. The guy was coming off 5.9, 5.9 and 6.8 seasons with wRC+'s of 141, 140 and 155. Solid defense at 3rd (which isn't super demanding on the body) and no real red flags in his profile (12% BB rate, 13.5% K rate).

 

He's been hurt ever since, I wonder what a healthy Rendon would be now, a 3 win player?

[Brownie19]

I'm not so sure the FA crop in 2024 is going to be lush with players we think are worth $150-$300M either. The reality is that landing franchise type players through free agency is typically a bad approach. Dodgers have been the exception lately, but they're due to have someone completely flop here.

[G-Snarls]

They've already shattered the original 24Hr record when Ohtani signed, lol.

 

Selling out everywhere

 

MLB/ Dodgers gear flies off shelves in Japan following Ohtani signing

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15081584

 

Kinda love this hat. Sold out everywhere.

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by G-Snarls

[BTS]

I just tend to think with where the club finds itself in the competitive cycle and need for potential impact Bellinger is a worthwhile gamble up to a point. He's the ultimate high risk high reward player but I'm kind of at the point where I'd like the team to take the shot if they can get the contract terms down to a mutually agreeable level.

 

Baseball contains a collection of good hit tool+high contact/low strikeout guys with lower exit velocities who have the ability to regularly park balls in the seats despite the uninspiring quality of contact. This includes players like Boegarts, Altuve, Arenado and even Jose Ramirez who have all experienced a pile of seasons where there is a massive gulf of 30 to 40 points or more between their WOBA and xWOBA levels. Bellinger just experienced one such season and given the similarities between his 2023 and the seasons that the previously mentioned group has often experienced this could be the type of result he's able to produce in a good season. I have a theory that there is a group of players who are outliers in terms of being able to regularly beat their expected stats by a large degree in a similar fashion to pitchers who are FIP beaters year over year. It's too early to tell if Bellinger could be one of these guys after a single season of running this type of profile though.

 

Bellinger doesn't really look like those guys though. Arenado, Altuve, Ramirez, and Paredes (who also fits the profile) are extreme pull hitters: 4 of only 14 guys with 400+ PA last year with a 50%+ pull rate. Paredes hit 0 oppo or center home runs last year. Arenado hit two. Altuve hit two. No idea on Ramirez because I don't feel like accounting for his switch hitting. But these guys seem to outperform xwOBA by by pulling the ball all the time and hitting a chunk of wall-scraper homers that would turn into out if they weren't extreme pull hitters.

 

Belly's profile is less extreme. His pull% is 43%. He had 7 oppo or center homers. That's almost twice as many as Paredes, Arenado, and Altuve combined. His 0.320 BABIP was 40 points higher than Ramirez's career BABIP. 30 points higher than Arenado's. 90 points higher than Paredes'.

[Spanky__99]

Just bring Chappy home for 4/$80

 

Sign Joc Pederson

Sign Joey Gallo and Tommy Pham

 

Slap John Schneider

Scold Vlad

Tell Kirk you want to see 20 homers

 

win the world series

 

sweetheart extension for Danny Boy

blank cheque for Soto

 

[Stangstag]

Ya the smart longterm play would be to hand out 1/2 year deals but Atkins ass is on the line and they're trying to build hype around a fully renovated ballpark.

 

They will definitely make "splashy" moves. Now we all hope the moves aren't ones that f*** us longterm.

 

Exactly this

[Spanky__99]

Bellinger projects like this because his floor is low and his ceiling is high

 

He's a high stakes gamble and everyone knows it

 

No one will be shocked if he misses 2 months and slumps to a 1.5 WAR season and no one will be shocked if he plays good defsnee and hits well for 150 games at is worth 5 WAR and gets ASG/MVP/SS votes.

 

Bingo... it's risky AF and would indeed give me heartburn at that asking price. Scary.

[L54]

The window is closing crowd says this is Toronto’s last chance but the window is broken if all the home grown players underperform again next year. 3 WAR Bellinger and 2 WAR Hoskins aren’t making up for Manoah/Vlad/Kirk/Springer averaging 1 WAR each

[max silver]

Bellinger doesn't really look like those guys though. Arenado, Altuve, Ramirez, and Paredes (who also fits the profile) are extreme pull hitters: 4 of only 14 guys with 400+ PA last year with a 50%+ pull rate. Paredes hit 0 oppo or center home runs last year. Arenado hit two. Altuve hit two. No idea on Ramirez because I don't feel like accounting for his switch hitting. But these guys seem to outperform xwOBA by by pulling the ball all the time and hitting a chunk of wall-scraper homers that would turn into out if they weren't extreme pull hitters.

 

Belly's profile is less extreme. His pull% is 43%. He had 7 oppo or center homers. That's almost twice as many as Paredes, Arenado, and Altuve combined. His 0.320 BABIP was 40 points higher than Ramirez's career BABIP. 30 points higher than Arenado's. 90 points higher than Paredes'.

 

For what it's worth Arenado and Altuve employed produced less extreme batted profiles earlier in their careers.

 

None of these guys are perfect comparisons, but I simply used them to outline that there are a collection of dudes in MLB who have displayed the ability to pretty regularly outproduce their expected stats despite uninspiring quality of contact metrics. Instead looking at career BABIP levels I suspect it would be more instructive to look the types of xBA/BA splits that the aforementioned players tended to enjoy in the seasons where they greatly outperformed their expected stats to a great degree as I suspect this would look rather similar to the type of split that Bellinger produced in 2023.

 

I'm most likely just looking for potential silver linings/bits of hope that Bellinger might have a chance to replicate his 2023 success in his good seasons in the future. I don't think it's completely impossible he enjoys similar seasons in the future, but I certainly wouldn't expect this to occur with any kind of regularity. I don't think there are any front offices both looking to spend a huge chunk of money and dumb enough to hand out something approaching $200 million for Bellinger's services so the contract demands should eventually come down to something more reasonable given the question marks in his offensive profile.

[G-Snarls]

The window is closing crowd says this is Toronto’s last chance but the window is broken if all the home grown players underperform again next year. 3 WAR Bellinger and 2 WAR Hoskins aren’t making up for Manoah/Vlad/Kirk/Springer averaging 1 WAR each

 

Hyperbole I assume. No way they all suck next year.

[Spanky__99]

The window is closing crowd says this is Toronto’s last chance but the window is broken if all the home grown players underperform again next year. 3 WAR Bellinger and 2 WAR Hoskins aren’t making up for Manoah/Vlad/Kirk/Springer averaging 1 WAR each

 

If they play just to their projections this is a much better team.

[Spanky__99]

Hyperbole I assume. No way they all suck next year.

 

I thought the entire post was him being facetious, hah!

[L54]

Hyperbole I assume. No way they all suck next year.

 

Well that’s what they averaged last year