Around Baseball 2023

[Brownie19]

I would like to point out that the Jays signed Gausman to what has turned out to be a fantastic contract. They got him for that price because other than the prior 2021 season, he had generally been a frustrating, inconsistent pitcher.

 

Bellinger right now is kind of in the same situation as Gausman was after 2021.

 

This is a fair point - Gausman came with risks and that has worked out better than anyone could have envisioned. However, Gausman's underlying numbers suggested he was a legit star. The risk was that he didn't have a long track record of sustaining that type of success. This situation would be a lot more similar if Belly's underlying numbers were glorious and the question was simply whether he could repeat or not.

[Jimcanuck]

This is a fair point - Gausman came with risks and that has worked out better than anyone could have envisioned. However, Gausman's underlying numbers suggested he was a legit star. The risk was that he didn't have a long track record of sustaining that type of success. This situation would be a lot more similar if Belly's underlying numbers were glorious and the question was simply whether he could repeat or not.

 

Yes, plus Gausman made some changes in 2021 that worked. He has further refined those changes and here we are.

 

Bellinger made some changes in 2023 that worked. He might very well lock down and refine those changes further.

[Laika]

I would like to point out that the Jays signed Gausman to what has turned out to be a fantastic contract. They got him for that price because other than the prior 2021 season, he had generally been a frustrating, inconsistent pitcher.

 

Bellinger right now is kind of in the same situation as Gausman was after 2021.

 

Gausman was a stud for 2020 (shortened year) and 2021, with identifiable changes to his approach, velo, and overall talent.

 

Toronto gave the 5 win player $110M.

 

Bellinger doesn't have the same substrate to his stat profile, right now. He's not as objectively good. And his projections are worse. He was a 4 win player in 2023, and got a bit lucky.

 

If Bellinger wants to sign a fair deal, I'm all over him. He's young so 5 years is fine with me. He's a decent player with upside so he can have a $20M AAV.

 

5/$100 for Cody and 4/$80 for Matthew

 

Good to go.

[connorp]

Belly 5/100 >>> Chapman 5/100 and I don’t even like Belly that much

[Jimcanuck]

What would you pay Bellinger?

 

Well that's the million dollar question that I can't answer. I am not sufficiently in tune with the player market.

 

Shatkins has been pretty good in making FA decisions, if they end up taking the risk and signing Belly for 8/$190 or even 8/$200, none of us should have heartburn.

[wilko]

Boras will make Bellinger and Chapman wait till the All-Star break to sign if it makes him more money.

[max silver]

Boras will make Bellinger and Chapman wait till the All-Star break to sign if it makes him more money.

 

Boras has actually done this before but I don't think it was with guys with this high of a profile.

[The Cats Ass]

A different viewpoint than yours, that's all. You haven't made a good post in months.

 

Anyway its more than Vlad and Bo. Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Springer, etc probably not very good 3 years from now. And the cupboard is pretty bare.

 

It's either go for it now or start the rebuild.

 

Bassitt is only signed for 2 more years. There's no reason to think Gausman or Berrios "probably won't be good" in 3 years. Pitchers tend to age differently. Will give you Springer, luckily he'll be in his last year.

[The Cats Ass]

 

5/$100 for Cody and 4/$80 for Matthew

 

Did you know both their middles name's are James?

[Laika]

Ah, a pair of Jims

 

Everything makes perfect f***ing sense now

[max silver]

Gausman was a stud for 2020 (shortened year) and 2021, with identifiable changes to his approach, velo, and overall talent.

 

Toronto gave the 5 win player $110M.

 

Bellinger doesn't have the same substrate to his stat profile, right now. He's not as objectively good. And his projections are worse. He was a 4 win player in 2023, and got a bit lucky.

 

If Bellinger wants to sign a fair deal, I'm all over him. He's young so 5 years is fine with me. He's a decent player with upside so he can have a $20M AAV.

 

5/$100 for Cody and 4/$80 for Matthew

 

Good to go.

 

Bellinger was a 4 win player while missing a months worth of games. Average that out to a full season and he was a 5 win player. He missed a month due to injury and experienced a short slump sandwiched around this injury, but for the most part the guy produced star level results for the majority of his season.

 

31 G 150 wRC+ 1.3 FWAR

14 G -7 wRC+ -0.6 FWAR (Terminator was in full gloat mode here)

85 G 150 wRC+ 3.3 FWAR

 

So in essence Bellinger was producing results like a 6+ win player for 90% of his season, and factoring in the slump and assuming similar production through the missed time would have produced a 5 win season. He was a little lucky in terms of actual home runs vs expected, but let's surmise that the slight luck component was reduced in terms of home runs and Bellinger would have basically clubbed 5 home runs per month instead of the 6 that he averaged as a whole. That still leaves a player that can hit 25-30 home runs in a season, and combined with an expected .270 batting average and good outfield defense+baserunning presents a player that has a good chance to provide yearly win totals in the 4+ range. I think he's most likely going to be worth a pretty sizable contract, it just remains to be seen how much of the offensive improvements are going to stick year over year.

[Laika]

Bellinger was a 4 win player while missing a months worth of games. Average that out to a full season and he was a 5 win player. He missed a month due to injury and experienced a short slump sandwiched around this injury, but for the most part the guy produced star level results for the majority of his season.

 

31 G 150 wRC+ 1.3 FWAR

14 G -7 wRC+ -0.6 FWAR (Terminator was in full gloat mode here)

85 G 150 wRC+ 3.3 FWAR

 

So in essence Bellinger was producing results like a 6+ win player for 90% of his season, and factoring in the slump and assuming similar production through the missed time would have produced a 5 win season. He was a little lucky in terms of actual home runs vs expected, but let's surmise that the slight luck component was reduced in terms of home runs and Bellinger would have basically clubbed 5 home runs per month instead of the 6 that he averaged as a whole. That still leaves a player that can hit 25-30 home runs in a season, and combined with an expected .270 batting average and good outfield defense+baserunning presents a player that has a good chance to provide yearly win totals in the 4+ range. I think he's most likely going to be worth a pretty sizable contract, it just remains to be seen how much of the offensive improvements are going to stick year over year.

 

This is stupid and you know it, max

 

You can carve up almost any player's season into little chunks and cherry pick it and weave in a narrative to make them look better or worse

 

Bellinger projects for 2.5 wins.

 

Injuries and ups and downs are literally part of the Bellinger experience. You can't ignore them.

[max silver]

This is stupid and you know it, max

 

You can carve up almost any player's season into little chunks and cherry pick it and weave in a narrative to make them look better or worse

 

Bellinger projects for 2.5 wins.

 

Injuries and ups and downs are literally part of the Bellinger experience. You can't ignore them.

 

You are acting as though a 2.5 win projection is a concrete lock for what kind of value Bellinger is going to provide moving forward, I simply don't agree. If you think this is the same player as he was in 2021 and 2022 then good for you. I see a player that undertook a complete overhaul in his offensive approach such that his 2021 and 2022 seasons aren't terribly relevant in projecting what he is moving forward. A 2.5 win projection is well and good, but I simply think he has a good chance to beat this projection handily. I just don't think he's worth the kind of contract that Boras is looking for at the moment, but reduce the AAV and term a bit and he suddenly starts to make a lot of sense as a worthwhile gamble.

[connorp]

If Max is however old he is and hasn’t realized he’s stupid, he’s not going to realize what he said is stupid

[DonJays]

This is stupid and you know it, max

 

You can carve up almost any player's season into little chunks and cherry pick it and weave in a narrative to make them look better or worse

 

Bellinger projects for 2.5 wins.

 

Injuries and ups and downs are literally part of the Bellinger experience. You can't ignore them.

 

Do you believe that he is a 2.5 win player? It’s a bs projection

[Laika]

If you think this is the same player as he was in 2021 and 2022 then good for you. I see a player that undertook a complete overhaul in his offensive approach that heis 2021 and 2022 seasons aren't terribly relevant in projecting what he is moving forward. A 2.5 win projection is well and good, but I simply think he's a really good lock to beat this projection handily. I just don't think he's worth the kind of contract that Boras is looking for at the moment, but reduce the AAV and term a bit and he suddenly starts to make a lot of sense as a worthwhile gamble.

 

Steamer isn't just a basic three year marcel projection

 

It looks at all the inputs. The K rate, the contact, the exit velo, all that.

 

He simply did not demonstrate 4 WAR true talent in 2023 despite the results. It's really easy to see. He got lucky on offense.

[Laika]

Do you believe that he is a 2.5 win player? It’s a bs projection

 

yes

 

I mean, he is a highly variable player, 2.5 is the most likely result.

 

but he's enough of an enigma that I'm not going to put money on a war projection or anything

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah It is a BS projection

[BTS]

Bellinger's projected 2024 wOBA is literally exactly his 2023 xwOBA. And it works out to a 2.5 WAR projection.

 

Do you 'Steamer is wrong' folks just think he's going to start hitting the ball harder in 2024 than in 2023, or do you think the fact that he beat his x stats in 2023 means he's going to keep doing it every year now?

[max silver]

yes

 

I mean, he is a highly variable player, 2.5 is the most likely result.

 

but he's enough of an enigma that I'm not going to put money on a war projection or anything

 

Break down the projections a bit and it's really easy to poke holes into the 2.5 result. Bellinger has averaged 2.6 BrR for his career, but is projected for a sizeable drop to 0.6 for 2024 despite actually improving his relative sprint speed in 2023 and despite being projected to play 20 more games than he did in 2023. His defensive projections are essentially assuming he's going to spend a large amount of time at first base, yet he's most likely going to spend the majority of his time in a corner outfield spot/spot center field duty as a Blue Jay so he would be most likely to handily beat that projection as well. A player with his defensive and baserunning abilities is a really good bet to beat a 2.5 win projection with the projected 108 wRC+ value.

[Jimcanuck]

Bassitt is only signed for 2 more years. There's no reason to think Gausman or Berrios "probably won't be good" in 3 years. Pitchers tend to age differently. Will give you Springer, luckily he'll be in his last year.

 

I might have used the wrong phrasing. How about "not as good" in 3 years. Point being, there is a short window here where the Jays are a 90 win team.

[Frenchsoup]

Just playing in the east and at our park is going to pump him up a bit. The d is pretty solid if he plays 130 games I think he can settle in at 3.5 War pretty easily. If you like the War Stat.

[G-Snarls]

Bellinger projects like this because his floor is low and his ceiling is high

 

He's a high stakes gamble and everyone knows it

 

No one will be shocked if he misses 2 months and slumps to a 1.5 WAR season and no one will be shocked if he plays good defsnee and hits well for 150 games at is worth 5 WAR and gets ASG/MVP/SS votes.

[Frenchsoup]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cody-bellinger/15998/stats?position=1B/OF

 

He had a .307 avg which would be a super nice add to this lineup. He was rated -4 defensively which isn't fair. Can play a solid LF for us and play close to a GG first base. Not really sure why Boras is pushing for 200 million so hard. Just do the 175 7 years with some incentives like games played and RISP clutch hits or something lol

[Laika]

Break down the projections a bit and it's really easy to poke holes into the 2.5 result. Bellinger has averaged 2.6 BrR for his career, but is projected for a sizeable drop to 0.6 for 2024 despite actually improving his relative sprint speed in 2023 and despite being projected to play 20 more games than he did in 2023. His defensive projections are essentially assuming he's going to spend a large amount of time at first base, yet he's most likely going to spend the majority of his time in a corner outfield spot/spot center field duty as a Blue Jay so he would be most likely to handily beat that projection as well. A player with his defensive and baserunning abilities is a really good bet to beat a 2.5 win projection with the projected 108 wRC+ value.

 

The +/- 2 BsR moves the needle by like 0.2 WAR. Almost nothing.

 

Bellinger was a -4 OF in 2023 per UZR and -3 by DRS. OAA liked him, but 28 years old is still the top of the aging curve... even though he is still young, people should expect him to be a corner outfielder going forward and not really a CF.

[Brownie19]

If Max is however old he is and hasn’t realized he’s stupid, he’s not going to realize what he said is stupid

 

That's rich coming from you.

[BTS]

The +/- 2 BsR moves the needle by like 0.2 WAR. Almost nothing.

 

Bellinger was a -4 OF in 2023 per UZR and -3 by DRS. OAA liked him, but 28 years old is still the top of the aging curve... even though he is still young, people should expect him to be a corner outfielder going forward and not really a CF.

 

Last 3 years combined he's -5 DRS, -1 UZR, and 13 OAA. He's probably a plus but not elite corner OF, but gets talked about like an elite CF defender. I think his reputation is still living off 2019 when everyone was shocked that a career 1B prospect weirdly put up monster defensive stats.

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah Bellis a good athlete he should mature pretty nicely if he didn't have that massive shoulder problem with Kike, who knows what his value would be on the market? We'd be buying a healthy Belli at this point.

[max silver]

If Max is however old he is and hasn’t realized he’s stupid, he’s not going to realize what he said is stupid

 

Don't try to pretend you even understand what's being discussed.

[BigCecil]

Bellinger projects like this because his floor is low and his ceiling is high

 

He's a high stakes gamble and everyone knows it

 

No one will be shocked if he misses 2 months and slumps to a 1.5 WAR season and no one will be shocked if he plays good defsnee and hits well for 150 games at is worth 5 WAR and gets ASG/MVP/SS votes.

 

100% Greg. Total $200M crap shoot I'd prefer to avoid...unless it works out of course!