Around Baseball 2023

[max silver]

I agree Belli would be the ideal fit, but his contract demands are pretty steep for a guy with enough caution tape on his profile that it looks like a crime scene.

 

It's too bad Bellinger employs Boras as his agent as Boras has historically been perfectly willing to let his guys wait the market out until spring training starts to maximize their contracts. It really hampers the rest of the team's offseason work not knowing if they will be employing Bellinger and Chapman as well as each of these moves will have a sizeable effect on the remaining budget to spend on other players.

[Jimcanuck]

I agree Belli would be the ideal fit, but his contract demands are pretty steep for a guy with enough caution tape on his profile that it looks like a crime scene.

 

I don't have the same trepidations. In addition the Jays are pretty free of bad contracts, have a rich owner, and well positioned to take some risk.

[Krylian]

I don't have the same trepidations. In addition the Jays are pretty free of bad contracts, have a rich owner, and well positioned to take some risk.

 

That's the thing. You have to take some risk now and then. Otherwise you're always going to be paralyzed to make any big moves.

[Frenchsoup]

I don't have the same trepidations. In addition the Jays are pretty free of bad contracts, have a rich owner, and well positioned to take some risk.

 

The club has a great contract situation with there players right now. The only one I would move, would be Romano's and Espy's, the Jays have many options in there battleplan to add to there Organization.

[glory]

If Joey Gallo is the starting LF on this team in 2024, even in a platoon role, then something would have gone terribly wrong. Or Atkins lost his mind.

[Laika]

If Joey Gallo is the starting LF on this team in 2024, even in a platoon role, then something would have gone terribly wrong. Or Atkins lost his mind.

 

Can't be perfect everywhere

 

The Rangers gave 33 year old Robbie Grossman 420 PA and won the world series

 

Gallo has extreme traits, is only 30, and could be a guy who would benefit massively from minor changes or altered offseason training

 

The thesis is just that there is not much else out there so rolling the dice in one spot on a low cost, high upside player could make sense. If he blows there will be the Bargers or Horwitz types in AAA to slide in. It might make sense if the team is able to get Chapman back and they land a premium DH option like Hoskins or JDM. They might need a budget LF platoon...

[Orgfiller]

One thing about Gallo, you definitely aren't dreading a GIDP if he comes up with men on first or first and second lol. He has less GIDP in his career (15) than Vlad does in every single season less the shortened 2020 (holy f*** that's a depressing fact).

 

On the other hand, guy on third and < 2 outs, a K or pop up is extremely likely, he has THREE (3) sacrifice flies his entire career. Pulling two players out of a hat, Craig Biggio has 9 (4 in 2021), Santiago Espinal has 5 (3 in 2022).

[max silver]

One thing about Gallo, you definitely aren't dreading a GIDP if he comes up with men on first or first and second lol. He has less GIDP in his career (15) than Vlad does in every single season less the shortened 2020 (holy f*** that's a depressing fact).

 

On the other hand, guy on third and < 2 outs, a K or pop up is extremely likely, he has THREE (3) sacrifice flies his entire career. Pulling two players out of a hat, Craig Biggio has 9 (4 in 2021), Santiago Espinal has 5 (3 in 2022).

 

For the last two seasons Gallo basically has essentially been an automatic out in half of his plate appearances. Combine his 2023 42.8% k rate with the popup rate of 7.2% (58.3% FB x 12.3% IFBB) and you end up with an even 50% strikeout and pop up rate. That's the last kind of guy a team with so many lineup openings should be employing.

[wilko]

Can't be perfect everywhere

 

The Rangers gave 33 year old Robbie Grossman 420 PA and won the world series

 

Gallo has extreme traits, is only 30, and could be a guy who would benefit massively from minor changes or altered offseason training

 

The thesis is just that there is not much else out there so rolling the dice in one spot on a low cost, high upside player could make sense. If he blows there will be the Bargers or Horwitz types in AAA to slide in. It might make sense if the team is able to get Chapman back and they land a premium DH option like Hoskins or JDM. They might need a budget LF platoon...

 

Gallo always seemed a few adjustments away from being a superstar. He's always been good defensively and he has legit power.

[jaysblue]

Can't be perfect everywhere

 

The Rangers gave 33 year old Robbie Grossman 420 PA and won the world series

 

Gallo has extreme traits, is only 30, and could be a guy who would benefit massively from minor changes or altered offseason training

 

The thesis is just that there is not much else out there so rolling the dice in one spot on a low cost, high upside player could make sense. If he blows there will be the Bargers or Horwitz types in AAA to slide in. It might make sense if the team is able to get Chapman back and they land a premium DH option like Hoskins or JDM. They might need a budget LF platoon...

 

Yeah you can't be perfect everywhere agreed, and even signing Bellinger to $200+ million isn't perfect.

 

Gallo is still just 30 and in 2021 put together a 4.1 WAR season with 38 HR's. I think if he's used properly (against RHP) and if he makes a slight adjustment or two like you said, the Jays could squeeze every bit of value out of him. He could also play multiple positions like LF, CF, 1B and maybe some 3B. So he's strictly not just a corner OF or DH. Can be flexible with the lineup which is nice. There is definitely upside with him.

 

Let's say if the Jays signed JDM or Hoskins as a DH, Gallo likely is still hitting near the bottom of the lineup anyways. No higher than 6th.

[max silver]

Yeah you can't be perfect everywhere agreed, and even signing Bellinger to $200+ million isn't perfect.

 

Gallo is still just 30 and in 2021 put together a 4.1 WAR season with 38 HR's. I think if he's used properly (against RHP) and if he makes a slight adjustment or two like you said, the Jays could squeeze every bit of value out of him. He could also play multiple positions like LF, CF, 1B and maybe some 3B. So he's strictly not just a corner OF or DH. Can be flexible with the lineup which is nice. There is definitely upside with him.

 

Let's say if the Jays signed JDM or Hoskins as a DH, Gallo likely is still hitting near the bottom of the lineup anyways. No higher than 6th.

 

I don't know man, the guy has a 97 wRC+ Steamer projection, but that includes Gallo improving his k rate compared to the last 2 seasons and producing a higher BABIP value than he's managed the last 5 years. I just tend to think he's nearing the point where he will have no offensive utility whatsoever as the k rate just keeps increasing year over year.

[jaysblue]

I actually agree with Max. Not sure this board can stomach Joey Gallo hitting .194 with Varsho in center hitting .238

 

Odds Gallo + MAT provide 4 WAR is like 5%

 

If Gallo hits 30+ HR's and provides a strong glove wherever he plays, I think we can stomach him hitting like Max Muncy. He posted a 4.1 WAR in 2021. Still think he's capable of giving you 2-3 WAR if used properly.

 

Taylor the last three seasons has posted a 2.1, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR. I'm sure if he's given around 350-400 PA's again, he can likely produce a WAR between 1.5 and 2.0.

 

Sure it's not a guarantee these guys work out. Bellinger might not work out as well. Difference is one is a $200+ million investment versus a 1-year stopgap option. Jays will have financial flexibility again in the 2024/2025 offseason to go big on someone like Soto or Bregman.

[jaysblue]

I don't know man, the guy has a 97 wRC+ Steamer projection, but that includes Gallo improving his k rate compared to the last 2 seasons and producing a higher BABIP value than he's managed the last 5 years. I just tend to think he's nearing the point where he will have no offensive utility whatsoever as the k rate just keeps increasing year over year.

 

Yeah those are legit concerns. But like Laika said, you can't be perfect everywhere. There is some upside with him still and there is a chance a platoon could provide some nice value. At the same time, there is a chance Gallo flops. But finding another bat for LF shouldn't be an issue in June or July, worst case scenario.

 

This is all if the Jays want to go the "stopgap" route this offseason, where every FA signing is only a one-year deal. The more I think of it, would prefer the Jays to go that route if it means they are willing to spend big next offseason on a bat like Soto or Bregman, or even an arm like Fried or Wheeler.

[Carlos Danger]

Yeah you can't be perfect everywhere agreed, and even signing Bellinger to $200+ million isn't perfect.

 

Gallo is still just 30 and in 2021 put together a 4.1 WAR season with 38 HR's. I think if he's used properly (against RHP) and if he makes a slight adjustment or two like you said, the Jays could squeeze every bit of value out of him. He could also play multiple positions like LF, CF, 1B and maybe some 3B. So he's strictly not just a corner OF or DH. Can be flexible with the lineup which is nice. There is definitely upside with him.

 

Let's say if the Jays signed JDM or Hoskins as a DH, Gallo likely is still hitting near the bottom of the lineup anyways. No higher than 6th.

 

Gallo is a left handed power hitter who was let go from the Yankees when they were desperate for OFs even with the little league left fields short porch.

 

He apparently is not good at handling the heat/pressures of places like New York. Toronto is not New York, but we do play in the AL East and there is a hell of a lot of media and pressure in the playoffs or tight divisional games etc..

[jaysblue]

Gallo is a left handed power hitter who was let go from the Yankees when they were desperate for OFs even with the little league left fields short porch.

 

He apparently is not good at handling the heat/pressures of places like New York. Toronto is not New York, but we do play in the AL East and there is a hell of a lot of media and pressure in the playoffs or tight divisional games etc..

 

Yeah once he went to the Yankees, he wasn't the same. I think that definitely did impact his performance somewhat.

 

Toronto is a bit different obviously. Not as much pressure and even if he's brought in, it's as a platoon bat who likely will hit near the bottom of the lineup. He won't be the main signing of the Jays offseason and won't be batting 4th or 5th here. So don't think he'll receive the same scrutiny as someone like Vlad or let's say Varsho.

[Spanky__99]

Belli's projected for 2.4 wins and he wants 200M... Jesus H. Christ that's risky AF.

[Orgfiller]

If Gallo hits 30+ HR's and provides a strong glove wherever he plays, I think we can stomach him hitting like Max Muncy. He posted a 4.1 WAR in 2021. Still think he's capable of giving you 2-3 WAR if used properly.

 

Taylor the last three seasons has posted a 2.1, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR. I'm sure if he's given around 350-400 PA's again, he can likely produce a WAR between 1.5 and 2.0.

 

Sure it's not a guarantee these guys work out. Bellinger might not work out as well. Difference is one is a $200+ million investment versus a 1-year stopgap option. Jays will have financial flexibility again in the 2024/2025 offseason to go big on someone like Soto or Bregman.

 

There's no such thing as "using Gallo properly". The last 3 orgs he's been in have been the Twins, Dodgers and Yankees. It's not like these are stupid orgs/FOs that are throwing him at the wolves without a plan, Gallo just hasn't been good since he left the Rangers. Additionally, for a player as extreme as he is, he actually has pretty decent splits, career 111 wRC+ vs RHP and 103 against LHP, so you don't even have to hide him against lefties.

 

The only thing you're hoping if you sign him is that he cuts his K rate down to "reasonable", which for him is 35% at best, and then taking that with his positional versatility and running with it.

[BTS]

It's hard to really know how good a fit Gallo is because the team has so many holes, and it really does depend how they're filled. They currently need an everyday LF, a 4th OF, and an everyday 3B. If they go into camp with Gallo looking like the best LF option, that's not ideal. But he's pretty interesting as a cheap 4th OF if they get someone better for LF.

[BatFlip]

If Gallo hits 30+ HR's and provides a strong glove wherever he plays, I think we can stomach him hitting like Max Muncy. He posted a 4.1 WAR in 2021. Still think he's capable of giving you 2-3 WAR if used properly.

 

Taylor the last three seasons has posted a 2.1, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR. I'm sure if he's given around 350-400 PA's again, he can likely produce a WAR between 1.5 and 2.0.

 

Sure it's not a guarantee these guys work out. Bellinger might not work out as well. Difference is one is a $200+ million investment versus a 1-year stopgap option. Jays will have financial flexibility again in the 2024/2025 offseason to go big on someone like Soto or Bregman.

 

I agree with what you're saying, but not sure if Gallo is the option I'd go with. I think Teoscar has more upside with the bat, just not sure how many years his market will end up at.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think the Jays have the luxury of punting 2024

[Orgfiller]

It's hard to really know how good a fit Gallo is because the team has so many holes, and it really does depend how they're filled. They currently need an everyday LF, a 4th OF, and an everyday 3B. If they go into camp with Gallo looking like the best LF option, that's not ideal. But he's pretty interesting as a cheap 4th OF if they get someone better for LF.

 

I don’t think he’s much of a 4th OF since he can’t cover CF though, I feel like that’s basically a requirement. Valuable utility/pinch hitter, but I think a proper 4th OF has to be someone that can play a passable CF.

[Spanky__99]

Gallo's f***ing GARB!!! Aim higher.

[G-Snarls]

I don't think the Jays have the luxury of punting 2024

 

No

 

Atkins would not survive that

[baconpancakes]

wow, i do not remember when the Jays have ever waiting so long in an off season to do something....anything?

[L54]

If Gallo hits 30+ HR's and provides a strong glove wherever he plays, I think we can stomach him hitting like Max Muncy. He posted a 4.1 WAR in 2021. Still think he's capable of giving you 2-3 WAR if used properly.

 

Taylor the last three seasons has posted a 2.1, 1.5 and 1.7 WAR. I'm sure if he's given around 350-400 PA's again, he can likely produce a WAR between 1.5 and 2.0.

 

Sure it's not a guarantee these guys work out. Bellinger might not work out as well. Difference is one is a $200+ million investment versus a 1-year stopgap option. Jays will have financial flexibility again in the 2024/2025 offseason to go big on someone like Soto or Bregman.

 

You’ve illustrated like the 95th percentile outcome. Of course it would be great if he produced 3 WAR for 9M

 

But if he’s striking out 45% if the time he’s going to be unplayable. I just don’t think you’re going to aggregate Gallo and Michael A. Taylor into 4 WAR because if that was true there would be like 20 other teams trying to do the same

 

I never made a Gallo vs Bellinger comparison. It’s not one or the other

[John_Havok]

wow, i do not remember when the Jays have ever waiting so long in an off season to do something....anything?

 

It's a unique offseason with Ohtani and Yamamoto slowing everything up at the top end of the market.

 

The teams making all the moves right now are pretty much dumpster diving and trying to grab guys they can trade at the deadline.

[Spanky__99]

It's a unique offseason with Ohtani and Yamamoto slowing everything up at the top end of the market.

 

The teams making all the moves right now are pretty much dumpster diving and trying to grab guys they can trade at the deadline.

 

And with the next big players in Belli and Chappy being Boras clients we might see it stall until players report, lol.

[jaysblue]

You’ve illustrated like the 95th percentile outcome. Of course it would be great if he produced 3 WAR for 9M

 

But if he’s striking out 45% if the time he’s going to be unplayable. I just don’t think you’re going to aggregate Gallo and Michael A. Taylor into 4 WAR because if that was true there would be like 20 other teams trying to do the same

 

I never made a Gallo vs Bellinger comparison. It’s not one or the other

 

Did we think Belt in 2023 was going to produce 2.3 WAR for 9M? Or KK 2.2 WAR for $9M? Sometimes you have to make those types of signings to fill out your MLB roster. Sometimes you get lucky and they work out or sometimes they don't.

 

Which platoon option in LF do you think could work? Throw out some names and offer to the discussion at least. I agree that going with Gallo + Taylor or another platoon combination in LF might not pan out. It very well could or it might not.

 

Atkins gets so much praise around here for signing Belt and KK last offseason. Though now nobody wants him to make those types of moves or FA signings which is ironic. Obviously Gallo/Taylor or whatever platoon they decide for LF isn't going to be the highlight of their offseason. Go out and sign Hoskins or JDM for $18-20M to be your DH and trade for a solid 3B. You can't have a perfect roster all around. There are definitely some intriguing pieces in LF who could be bounce back candidates and buy low options as FA's, so why not try to target those types of players for LF if that is the last area to address?

 

I'm all up for signing someone like Teo or Soler, but do we really want to commit to them for 3 to 4 years at close to $18M each season, when that ties up potential funds next offseason from signing a more elite FA like Soto or Bregman? We could very well sign Chapman, Bellinger and/or one of Teo or Soler, but then count the Jays out on Soto, Bregman, Wheeler or Fried next offseason.

[Spanky__99]

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[jaysblue]

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You should list your suggestions Spanky and offer something to the discussion at least.