Around Baseball 2023

[BTS]

[Laika]

 

seems like a stupid plan

 

ooof

 

surgery today and he might be good to go in May 2024

 

try to nurse it for a couple of months though and the end result might be 2023 and 2024 completely lost

[connorp]

 

You knew it wasn’t good when they supposedly didn’t know for a week

[Stangstag]

seems like a stupid plan

 

ooof

 

surgery today and he might be good to go in May 2024

 

try to nurse it for a couple of months though and the end result might be 2023 and 2024 completely lost

 

Yikes yeah this seems like a bad plan

[connorp]

I don’t think there’s any cautionary tale here against the Phillies rushing him. It was 1 inning in ST this year.

Either he overworked/underworked in the off-season, or it’s just one of those things that happen. Likely the latter

[Laika]

I don’t think there’s any cautionary tale here against the Phillies rushing him. It was 1 inning in ST this year.

Either he overworked/underworked in the off-season, or it’s just one of those things that happen. Likely the latter

 

I'm not sure they used him in exactly a modern/scientific way in 2022

 

How many 19 year old pitchers, drafted the prior year out of high school, are routinely throwing 6+ innings and 90+ pitches?

 

Towards the end of 2022 Painter was routinely going 80+ pitches, with 90+ a couple of times.

 

The Phillies picked Mick Abel 15th in 2020. In 2021 he threw less than 50 innings, all at one level. Never threw 6 innings, never threw 80 pitches.

 

The Phils basically skipped an entire year with Painter. They had him and Abel, a year older, doing the same basic workload.

 

For comparison the Jays capped Tiedemann at 5 innings and in August they kind of shut him down, partially, and he finished the year with a few 3 inning outings.

[Laika]

Stuff+ / Location+ / Pitching+ are now on Fangraphs!

 

Pitching Leaderboards --> Pitch Modeling

 

You can even see it per pitch

 

amazing

[43211234]

Stuff+ / Location+ / Pitching+ are now on Fangraphs!

 

Pitching Leaderboards --> Pitch Modeling

 

You can even see it per pitch

 

amazing

 

As is pitchingBot, not that I was familiar with that model before reading the Fangraphs post.

 

 

 

Kevin Gausman led qualified starters in both Pitching+ and pitchingBot ERA in 2022.

 

 

And very interestingly, Berrios had a 3.35 pitchingBot ERA: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=25&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=16,a

[Laika]

As is pitchingBot, not that I was familiar with that model before reading the Fangraphs post.

 

 

 

Kevin Gausman led qualified starters in both Pitching+ and pitchingBot ERA in 2022.

 

 

And very interestingly, Berrios had a 3.35 pitchingBot ERA: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=25&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=16,a

 

does pitchingBot use a 20-80 scale rather than centering on 100?

[43211234]

does pitchingBot use a 20-80 scale rather than centering on 100?

 

Yeah, you must be right.

 

I was confused by all the values but 20-80 scale clears it up.

 

It gives Aroldis Chapman 80 stuff and 31 command lol

[43211234]

Apparently the one-time super prospect Anderson Espinoza finally made his major league debut in 2022.

 

After his 18 innings PitchingBot gave him 27 stuff and 20 command. Ouch.

 

 

Hanser Alberto (position player) was given 20 for stuff and 20 command haha

 

 

 

 

PitchingBot and Pitching+ both love Trent Thornton. I guess his 4.11 ERA last year was better than I remember him pitching. It will be interesting to see if he makes the team. It looks like he does have an option year left.

[Laika]

Apparently the one-time super prospect Anderson Espinoza finally made his major league debut in 2022.

 

After his 18 innings PitchingBot gave him 27 stuff and 20 command. Ouch.

 

 

Hanser Alberto (position player) was given 20 for stuff and 20 command haha

 

 

PitchingBot and Pitching+ both love Trent Thornton. I guess his 4.11 ERA last year was better than I remember him pitching. It will be interesting to see if he makes the team. It looks like he does have an option year left.

 

Thornton is a weird one

 

If I had to diagnose his issues by looking at these new models I would guess that his fastball command is just not quite good enough. Which is weird because he has not had gross walk rates in his career. But with good location numbers on his slider and good stuff on his fastball and slider, the poor location on the fastball is the only shortcoming.

 

But it makes sense. Fringe command of your fastball is a tough foundation. Miss your spot too often and you will get hammered in general.

 

Another component might be that the models are trained on what has been successful historically, but the game is evolving. So Thornton's high spin 4 seamer up in the zone may have been amazing for him for a few years ago but by now it's kind of old hat and more and more hitters are trained at how to hit those pitches.

 

Maybe he should become one of those guys who is 25% fastballs, 75% offspeed.

[John_Havok]

Thornton is a weird one

 

If I had to diagnose his issues by looking at these new models I would guess that his fastball command is just not quite good enough. Which is weird because he has not had gross walk rates in his career. But with good location numbers on his slider and good stuff on his fastball and slider, the poor location on the fastball is the only shortcoming.

 

But it makes sense. Fringe command of your fastball is a tough foundation. Miss your spot too often and you will get hammered in general.

 

Another component might be that the models are trained on what has been successful historically, but the game is evolving. So Thornton's high spin 4 seamer up in the zone may have been amazing for him for a few years ago but by now it's kind of old hat and more and more hitters are trained at how to hit those pitches.

 

Maybe he should become one of those guys who is 25% fastballs, 75% offspeed.

 

The story fits for Kikuchi too. Excellent stuff+, crap location +. Stop throwing it 50% of the time and it's weakness is better hidden

 

[Ray]

Super interesting. Toronto actually had the 2nd best pitching staff in the league if you look at team-wide Pitching+ (103 Pitching+, which is tied with Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Giants).

[BTS]

The story fits for Kikuchi too. Excellent stuff+, crap location +. Stop throwing it 50% of the time and it's weakness is better hidden

 

 

This is my first time looking at these numbers. Going to take awhile to learn how to interpret them, especially with there being a lot more variance in Stuff+ than Location+. 91 seems to be horrific location, would would be a bit below average stuff.

[John_Havok]

This is my first time looking at these numbers. Going to take awhile to learn how to interpret them, especially with there being a lot more variance in Stuff+ than Location+. 91 seems to be horrific location, would would be a bit below average stuff.

 

The scale is the same as any other 100+ scale. 100 is league average, 90 is 10% below league average, 110 is 10% higher .... etc etc.

 

 

Heh, the fastball stuff score on Striplings fastball is sooo bad, but the stuff score on his changeup is +136.

[BTS]

The scale is the same as any other 100+ scale. 100 is league average, 90 is 10% below league average, 110 is 10% higher .... etc etc.

 

 

Heh, the fastball stuff score on Striplings fastball is sooo bad, but the stuff score on his changeup is +136.

 

Location+ is grouped a lot tighter than Stuff+. Ranges from 93 to 109 for pitchers with 100+ IP last year, while stuff+ ranges from 73 to 134.

[John_Havok]

Location+ is grouped a lot tighter than Stuff+. Ranges from 93 to 109 for pitchers with 100+ IP last year, while stuff+ ranges from 73 to 134.

 

Search for the scores for guys with much fewer IP and you'll some really low numbers. Some are almost tragic

[Spanky__99]

seems like a stupid plan

 

ooof

 

surgery today and he might be good to go in May 2024

 

try to nurse it for a couple of months though and the end result might be 2023 and 2024 completely lost

 

I guess they're hoping for a Tanaka result, but that hardly ever works.

[Spanky__99]

Stuff+ / Location+ / Pitching+ are now on Fangraphs!

 

Pitching Leaderboards --> Pitch Modeling

 

You can even see it per pitch

 

amazing

 

Nice.

[G-Snarls]

[BTS]

 

Kind of weird. it's not clear that he's any good

[Terminator]

Yeah I like that for Ruiz. That's a nice chunk of guaranteed change and he's nothing special.

 

It's not terrible AAV for the Nats and he could live up to the deal but I don't think there is a ton of upside for them here. Just basically locking themselves in to average C play for the next 6-8 years.

[Spanky__99]

 

Smart. Both get protection.

[L54]

Catching prospects rarely hit the ground running and that’s back up catcher money. If Ruiz unlocks any sort of power upgrade that contract will be very valuable.

[Laika]

Actually a bad deal for Ruiz?

1.7 war last year and a 2 war projection...

[Spanky__99]

Actually a bad deal for Ruiz?

1.7 war last year and a 2 war projection...

 

Of course it is, bruh...

[Spanky__99]

Catching prospects rarely hit the ground running and that’s back up catcher money. If Ruiz unlocks any sort of power upgrade that contract will be very valuable.

 

Agreed.

[Spanky__99]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Terminator]

He’s a slap hitter with bad defense and framing. No need to lock him up he was going to be cheap anyway.