OF

[connorp]

Expected batting average has nothing to do with k rate, it's only relevant for batted balls. It looks like somebody needs to brush up on his statistics.

 

Yeah I think you’re confusing a single event, the ball that goes into play vs. the whole picture

[max silver]

A player’s xBA for the season is calculated by taking the sum of all xBA from individual batted ball events. The sum is then divided by all batted ball events. After that, strikeouts are factored in which results in a season-long Expected Batting Average.

 

https://www.fantraxhq.com/statcast-101-expected-stats/

 

Touche, you got me there. However I still think contact type is more to blame for the large drop in expected batting average for Grisham. He saw a 4% increase in ground ball rate, a stark decrease of 7.7% to his line drive rate (most likely contact type to fall in for hits), and a 5% increase in pull rate. For a left handed hitter who is heavily shifted this is definitely problematic, as more ground balls into the shift is correspondingly going to do a number on BA/xBA.

[max silver]

One could equally roll their eyes when someone is talking about xBA of .204 in the context of “he’s not that bad” lol. It’s pretty common for guys like Biggio to have their best years at first before all the adjustments expose the fact that they’re not a mlb hitter. Again, you can sign guys like JBJ and bring them in as late inning replacements. Think bigger

 

Give the Biggio hate bit a rest. After he was called back up from AAA he produced a 107 WRC+, that sure as hell looks like an MLB hitter to me. He'll likely never hit for much of an average, but we'll get a clearer picture once the shift ban is in place in 2023. If/when MLB goes to an automatic strike zone Biggio stands to benefit tremendously from that as well.

[wilko]

Why do they even need a RF? They got Biggio/Merrifield. Edited November 28, 2022 by wilko

[Captain_Obvious]

Touche, you got me there. However I still think contact type is more to blame for the large drop in expected batting average for Grisham. He saw a 4% increase in ground ball rate, a stark decrease of 7.7% to his line drive rate (most likely contact type to fall in for hits), and a 5% increase in pull rate. For a left handed hitter who is heavily shifted this is definitely problematic, as more ground balls into the shift is correspondingly going to do a number on BA/xBA.

 

I did not say the strikeout increase was the only contributor. The quality of contact did become worse, but strikeouts were a major contributor. He went from being 71 percentile in whiff% (good) to 39 percentile in 2022 (bad). His K% went from 22.6% in 2021 to 28.6% in 2022.

 

I expect the Blue Jays to aim higher for their main trading chip.

[max silver]

You did however claim this strikeout increase was the main factor. I just don't see how a 6% increase in k rate is going to lead to a 40 point drop in xBA. Grisham produced an xBA 62 points higher that 2022 back in 2020 with a k rate of only 3% lower than 2022, so quality and type of contact is key.

 

At any rate I agree the Jays should aim higher when it comes to an outfield trade candidate. Jansen on his own isn't likely to bring back an exciting outfield replacement, but perhaps as part of a package deal something can be worked out.

[Jimcanuck]

Why do they even need a LF? They got Biggio/Merrifield.

 

They don't. They need a CF so Springer can move to a corner and they can do things to lessen his injury risk.

 

And in any event, Springer is getting old, even without bringing in a CF this offseason, one will be needed quite soon.

[connorp]

Why do they even need a LF? They got Biggio/Merrifield.

 

And there it is. So when people get mad saying “of course we’re replacing Teo”, are they sure?

[Jimcanuck]

And there it is. So when people get mad saying “of course we’re replacing Teo”, are they sure?

 

Will you be mad if the Jays use the Teo money to get a solid SP that will replace the WAR differential between Teo and Biggio/Merrifield?

[connorp]

Will you be mad if the Jays use the Teo money to get a solid SP that will replace the WAR differential between Teo and Biggio/Merrifield?

 

I think you’re playing around with the same fire as Kooch with that money. Or an OF for that money. Could work out, could not. 50/50

[connorp]

SP is pretty huge obviously come playoff time. Berrios would’ve been better served as a piggyback for Stripling. Not that it came to that

[Laika]

Teoscar was a $21M talent getting paid $15M

 

Toronto saves $12M or so and gets a reliever with surplus value in Swanson. But they probably AREN'T bringing in a $21M value OF on top of that. They don't have to though. Just need the aggregate to be better than the status quo.

[Carlos Danger]

Teoscar was a $21M talent getting paid $15M

 

Toronto saves $12M or so and gets a reliever with surplus value in Swanson. But they probably AREN'T bringing in a $21M value OF on top of that. They don't have to though. Just need the aggregate to be better than the status quo.

 

This

 

Team run prevention (Pitching and defense) when we start the 23 season needs to surpass the offensive value of Teo and where we were at last season and then it is a good deal for the overall Team build. Too early to make any assesment, but a def step in the right direction.

[Stangstag]

This

 

Team run prevention (Pitching and defense) when we start the 23 season needs to surpass the offensive value of Teo and where we were at last season and then it is a good deal for the overall Team build. Too early to make any assesment, but a def step in the right direction.

 

Not having Lourdes and Hernandez at the corners should really improve the run prevention. We desperately need plus CF to move Springer to a corner.

 

Dream scenario is like Arizona CF + Conforto signing

[Terminator]

I’d like to take a bow on behalf of the small minority of us who actually know what we are talking about. It took a lot of courage to stand up for the right thing this offseason. Cheers guys.

[Jimcanuck]

Jays struck out on their first choice, went to #2. Ah well, it happens.

[L54]

Jays struck out on their first choice, went to #2. Ah well, it happens.

 

Pivoted from Belli to KK

 

File this one under “run prevention”

[Terminator]

Jays struck out on their first choice, went to #2. Ah well, it happens.

 

Pivoted from Belli to KK

 

File this one under “run prevention”

 

The Sheriff knows his stuff and Atkins agreeing with me proves it. Take the L fellas.

[L54]

Who do you prefer among Kiermaier, Gallo, and Bellinger as a Jays OF signee.

 

The Sheriff knows his stuff and Atkins agreeing with me proves it. Take the L fellas.

 

Learn to read

[Terminator]

http://wp.usatodaysports.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/90/2013/10/gronkdance2_original_original.gif

 

Me after winning yet ANOTHER debate on the Blue Jays Message Board™

[TheHurl]

Can non mods see who voted for who? Just for Term's future wraths

 

Kiermaier - Captain Adama, Captain_Obvious, Gen.Disarray, JaysAllMighty, Laika, max silver, rabbit4949, Terminator

Gallo - InsideThePark, Jays24, Jays333, Sorrow, Stangstag

Bellinger - 43211234, Angrioter, Candy Maldonado, Davie, Deadpool, devo, Dick_Pole, donnybrook, Eat My Shatkins, Ehjays, Funky, G-Snarls, Grant77, jaysblue, jaysfaithful8, jaysguy44, JG34, Jimcanuck, John_Havok, Jonn, Krylian, L54, LetTheBallFly, LGBJ29, lurker, M.E., Omar, philly30, RustyTrombone, Skinny Wolf, wilko, WryNGinger

[wilko]

Can non mods see who voted for who? Just for Term's future wraths

 

Kiermaier - Captain Adama, Captain_Obvious, Gen.Disarray, JaysAllMighty, Laika, max silver, rabbit4949, Terminator

Gallo - InsideThePark, Jays24, Jays333, Sorrow, Stangstag

Bellinger - 43211234, Angrioter, Candy Maldonado, Davie, Deadpool, devo, Dick_Pole, donnybrook, Eat My Shatkins, Ehjays, Funky, G-Snarls, Grant77, jaysblue, jaysfaithful8, jaysguy44, JG34, Jimcanuck, John_Havok, Jonn, Krylian, L54, LetTheBallFly, LGBJ29, lurker, M.E., Omar, philly30, RustyTrombone, Skinny Wolf, wilko, WryNGinger

 

Plz change mine to KK

[JaysAllMighty]

It was the obvious choice

[Terminator]

 

Looks like Andrew Friedman preferred KK over Bellinger as well.

 

So on the Kevin Kiermaier side we've got Ross Atkins, Andrew Friedman, yours truly the Sheriff and some of the other smartest posters on the board.

 

On the Bellinger side we have the worst franchise in sports history in the Chicago Cubs and a collection of some of the dumbest baseball minds ever assembled on a sports messaging board (with some exceptions).

[Terminator]

The Bellinger Fanboys are awfully quiet these days! I wonder why lol

[L54]

The Bellinger Fanboys are awfully quiet these days! I wonder why lol

 

Too bad Ross couldn’t operate your LOD team

[Eat My Shatkins]

Correct me if I'm wrong but was it not reported that both the Dodgers and Jays tried to sign Bellinger before he ultimately went elsewhere?

 

Then both pivoted to KK?

[Jimcanuck]

Correct me if I'm wrong but was it not reported that both the Dodgers and Jays tried to sign Bellinger before he ultimately went elsewhere?

 

Then both pivoted to KK?

 

Yes, correct. The Terminator spin is ********. He's allegedly a lawyer, it's what they do.

[Terminator]

Correct me if I'm wrong but was it not reported that both the Dodgers and Jays tried to sign Bellinger before he ultimately went elsewhere?

 

Then both pivoted to KK?

 

LOL so you're telling me that the richest team in baseball was MORE interested in the guy that they NON-TENDERED? I implore all you deranged Bellinger Fanboys to seek psychiatric help.

[Terminator]