2022 Blue Jays Post Season Discussion Thread!

[G-Snarls]

Jays in 2

Guardians in 3

Cardinals in 2

Mets in 3

 

Agree on all counts actually

[glory]

Jays in 2

Guardians in 3

Cardinals in 2

Mets in 3

 

I have the Rays beating the Guardians, but agree with Jays, Cardinals, and Mets advancing.

[Stangstag]

Wow Jays actually got the 2nd best slot. Thanks Mariners.

 

Garbage that those other games are at 12 and 2. What the f*** kinda time slots are those. Slots should have been 12-3-5-8

[Carlos Danger]

Jays in 2

Guardians in 3

Cardinals in 2

Mets in 3

 

What about Gausman’s finger?

[Grant77]

Seattle has lost Winker for the season. That hurts them, especially after losing Haggerty.

 

They don't lose much by plugging in Santana at DH, but it takes away their only viable PH option. Schneider should have an easier time matching up with his bullpen now.

 

I thought the loss of Haggerty was important too, but I was corrected and told that he doesn't matter.

[wilko]

They don't lose much by plugging in Santana at DH, but it takes away their only viable PH option. Schneider should have an easier time matching up with his bullpen now.

 

I thought the loss of Haggerty was important too, but I was corrected and told that he doesn't matter.

 

I think losing Haggerty is a blow. Not massive but could still impact the team in some capacity. His September was dogshit but he could still draw a walk with some speed.

[Laika]

Seattle has lost Winker for the season. That hurts them, especially after losing Haggerty.

 

That’s a big deal. He’s one of their top 4 hitters and they lose a LF option.

 

Seattles lineup is probably simple to bullpen plan against. The top is all righties and the bottom is mostly lefties.

[jaysblue]

Jays in 2

Guardians in 3

Cardinals in 2

Mets in 3

 

Hard to disagree with those selections. Would pick those teams to win as well.

[Stangstag]

92 wins, slightly better than last year.

 

Sucks that even without the extended playoffs, 87 wins would have been enough this year for the 2nd wildcard. 91 wins would have given us the WC game in Toronto. Last year feels like such a wasted opportunity.

 

Lets make sure this year counts. Hoping for a deep playoff run.

[Jonn]

Should have been 93 wins. Mitch f***ing White cost me money.

[Olerud363]

They don't lose much by plugging in Santana at DH, but it takes away their only viable PH option. Schneider should have an easier time matching up with his bullpen now.

 

I thought the loss of Haggerty was important too, but I was corrected and told that he doesn't matter.

 

Anybody could be important. However Winkler and Haggerty are still fairly easily replaceable.

 

Talent is a pyramid. If a 5 WAR guy get's injured and is replaced by a 1 WAR guy that's a big hit. If a 1.2 WAR guy get's inured and is replaced by a 1 WAR guy that is not a big hit. According to fWAR Haggerty is 1.5 WAR and Winker is 0.4 this year.

 

You have other guys that are comparable that can fill in. Winker is the 13th best Seattle player by fWAR. Their bench will be light and if anything else bad happens they might be playing a Zimmer like guy (I don't know who that would be, as I don't know their team that well.)

 

The combined loss of Winker and Haggerty is 2 WAR total, and is replaceable. However...

 

Winker is a much better player in the rest of his career then he is this year.

Haggerty has done nothing outside of this year.

 

So maybe you could twist in the wind a bit and argue Winker is a huge loss because this year doesn't count and he's really a .280 .380 .500 hitter, and Haggerty is a big loss because this 1 year is everything and he's like a 3 WAR guy for sure.

[Masterbather]

Jays in 2

Guardians in 3

Cardinals in 2

Mets in 3

 

Jays in 3

Rays in 2

Philly in 2

Mets in 3

[Laika]

Anybody could be important. However Winkler and Haggerty are still fairly easily replaceable.

 

Talent is a pyramid. If a 5 WAR guy get's injured and is replaced by a 1 WAR guy that's a big hit. If a 1.2 WAR guy get's inured and is replaced by a 1 WAR guy that is not a big hit. According to fWAR Haggerty is 1.5 WAR and Winker is 0.4 this year.

 

You have other guys that are comparable that can fill in. Winker is the 13th best Seattle player by fWAR. Their bench will be light and if anything else bad happens they might be playing a Zimmer like guy (I don't know who that would be, as I don't know their team that well.)

 

The combined loss of Winker and Haggerty is 2 WAR total, and is replaceable. However...

 

Winker is a much better player in the rest of his career then he is this year.

Haggerty has done nothing outside of this year.

 

So maybe you could twist in the wind a bit and argue Winker is a huge loss because this year doesn't count and he's really a .280 .380 .500 hitter, and Haggerty is a big loss because this 1 year is everything and he's like a 3 WAR guy for sure.

 

You care about projected performance. Winker is a really good hitter.

[Olerud363]

You care about projected performance. Winker is a really good hitter.

 

I totally agree. Which is why I didn't think losing Haggerty was a big deal. His projection is like .220 .300 .340 or something.

 

I would think the loss of Winker is more important then it first appears, because he is a good player, but using the same framework the loss of Haggerty would be less important. He's a 28 year old with unimpressive minor league numbers and projections.

[Masterbather]

I totally agree. Which is why I didn't think losing Haggerty was a big deal. His projection is like .220 .300 .340 or something.

 

I would think the loss of Winker is more important then it first appears, because he is a good player, but using the same framework the loss of Haggerty would be less important. He's a 28 year old with unimpressive minor league numbers and projections.

 

Projections don't mean much in a three-game series. Haggerty could get you a key stolen base that could help win you a series, that alone might make him more valuable over three games.

[Sammy225]

Jays in 2

Guardians in 3

Cardinals in 2

Mets in 3

 

I agree a lot but padres have been playing decent ball as of late don’t be surprised if they upset the Mets.

[Olerud363]

Really hoping this is the year of Grant. Red Sox collapse, next Seattle doesn't put up any fight and Grant can gloat.

 

Not that I have ever claimed Seattle is a great team, just argued they aren't a terrible team and not anything different than what you'd expect from a wild card team in the expanded playoff era.

 

Not a terrible team, not a great one. Like 4% worse than the Jays. What does 4% worse mean over a 3 gamer series? What do these little injuries that make them another .5% worse mean?

[InsideThePark]

Locks:

 

Jansen, Vladdy, Biggio, Bo, Chapman, Springer, Teo, Kirk, Merrifield

Tapia

Manoah, Stripling, Gausman

Romano, Mayza, Bass, Garcia, Cimber, Richards, Pop, Phelps

 

Lock if Healthy:

Gurriel, Espinal

 

My other selections:

Moreno, Berrios, Zimmer

 

If Gurriel, Espinal isn't healthy:

Bradley, Gage

 

Outside Chance:

Merryweather, Kikuchi, Lopez

 

I assume they'll take Bradley over Zimmer, but neither should be starting, and Zimmer is a better runner and defender for a late game replacement. I would probably take both over Tapia if Gurriel was healthy but that's not happening

[Olerud363]

Projections don't mean much in a three-game series. Haggerty could get you a key stolen base that could help win you a series, that alone might make him more valuable over three games.

 

If it comes to that, that one stolen base wins you the series, then it still means he only partially shares the credit.

 

1. If it's a 1-1 game a pitcher would have had to do good

2. If it's a 7-7 game the offense would have had to do good

3. If Haggerty is pinch running then someone would have had to get on base.

4. If Haggerty scores then someone has to get a hit.

 

How do you decide who get's all the other playing time that helped set everything up for Haggerty's big stolen base? Projections.

 

How do you decide to roster Haggerty in the first place? Or to pinch run him? Projections. He has been and is projected to be a good basestealer.

 

Hit replacement Trammel I think is also an OK base stealer but not quite as good as Haggerty.

 

Haggerty is gone. Trammel is probably headed to Toronto. How will they decide whether or not to let Trammel run or not? Projections?

[Carlos Danger]

Projections don't mean much in a three-game series. Haggerty could get you a key stolen base that could help win you a series, that alone might make him more valuable over three games.

 

I was at the Mariner’s game last Thursday night. There were 9 hrs hit and not one ended up making a difference in the win. The game went 11 innings and the Mariners were down by 1 going into the bottom of the 10th and 11th.

 

The Mariners were able to tie the game twice in extras and finally win by their ability to pinch run, pinch hit, make contact and get a stolen base. They PR for France and Saurez, two of their three best hitters. There were some key at bats by their bench to get a hit, get on base, move the ball over and steal a base. Specifically the winning run in the 11th.

 

Losing Haggerty and Winker weakens that bench significantly and removes multiple tools I saw in use in last Thursday’s win.

[Grant77]

Really hoping this is the year of Grant. Red Sox collapse, next Seattle doesn't put up any fight and Grant can gloat.

 

Not that I have ever claimed Seattle is a great team, just argued they aren't a terrible team and not anything different than what you'd expect from a wild card team in the expanded playoff era.

 

Not a terrible team, not a great one. Like 4% worse than the Jays. What does 4% worse mean over a 3 gamer series? What do these little injuries that make them another .5% worse mean?

 

I didn't make any predictions about Seattle. My only point has already been made and confirmed.

 

Obviously I hope they lose, but there isn't anything to gloat about in that regard.

 

Regarding the red sox, I was correct about pitching being their achilles heel. A lot of others were too, but I will happily discuss Boston sucking any time.

[Olerud363]

I was at the Mariner’s game last Thursday night. There were 9 hrs hit and not one ended up making a difference in the win. The game went 11 innings and the Mariners were down by 1 going into the bottom of the 10th and 11th.

 

The Mariners were able to tie the game twice in extras and finally win by their ability to pinch run, pinch hit, make contact and get a stolen base. They PR for France and Saurez, two of their three best hitters. There were some key at bats by their bench to get a hit, get on base, move the ball over and steal a base. Specifically the winning run in the 11th.

 

Losing Haggerty and Winker weakens that bench significantly and removes multiple tools I saw in use in last Thursday’s win.

 

 

How the f*** does the game even get to the extra innings without the homeruns? If they don't hit homeruns it's like a 9-3 victory for Texas.

 

What about the next night where they clinch their playoff spot with a homerun?

 

So you are saying if there is a game, with a bunch of homeruns, J-Rod bombs, And Saurez blasts, but Jays counter with some Teoscar, Springer and Vlad blasts and it's tied 10-10 in the tenth.

 

We got it because at that point Seattle is screwed because they don't have Haggerty?

 

If they lost their homeruns instead of Haggerty they might not even get to extra innings. And besides Trammell might be able to do some base running heroics anyway.

[Carlos Danger]

How the f*** does the game even get to the extra innings without the homeruns? If they don't hit homeruns it's like a 9-3 victory for Texas.

 

What about the next night where they clinch their playoff spot with a homerun?

 

So you are saying if there is a game, with a bunch of homeruns, J-Rod bombs, And Saurez blasts, but Jays counter with some Teoscar, Springer and Vlad blasts and it's tied 10-10 in the tenth.

 

We got it because at that point Seattle is screwed because they don't have Haggerty?

 

If they lost their homeruns instead of Haggerty they might not even get to extra innings. And besides Trammell might be able to do some base running heroics anyway.

 

You missed the whole point of the post. Yea the HRs got them to extras but none of them helped with their extra innings runs. The fact they have the faith to replace France and Saurez with their bench guys and what the bench was able to produce that game is drastically altered by the loss of Haggerty and Winker.

 

The fact is on the road they might not be so aggressive with subs, but I still think those two injuries will weaken the Mariners in a playoff series.

[Laika]

Projections don't mean much in a three-game series. Haggerty could get you a key stolen base that could help win you a series, that alone might make him more valuable over three games.

 

Bad post.

 

Projections are a measurement of talent. The more talented team has a better chance of winning any given game. Simple.

[Solaxys]

[Grant77]

I was at the Mariner’s game last Thursday night. There were 9 hrs hit and not one ended up making a difference in the win. The game went 11 innings and the Mariners were down by 1 going into the bottom of the 10th and 11th.

 

The Mariners were able to tie the game twice in extras and finally win by their ability to pinch run, pinch hit, make contact and get a stolen base. They PR for France and Saurez, two of their three best hitters. There were some key at bats by their bench to get a hit, get on base, move the ball over and steal a base. Specifically the winning run in the 11th.

 

Losing Haggerty and Winker weakens that bench significantly and removes multiple tools I saw in use in last Thursday’s win.

 

Facts don't matter if they don't support Olerud's original incorrect premise.

 

I think you make a good point. Of course extra base hits are one of the biggest factors in winning, but all teams can do that at this point.

 

Teams are similarly talented in the playoffs and games are closer because of it. Things like advancing runners, taking extra bases, making defensive plays, etc. are magnified to some extent.

 

There isn't a stat for it, but anyone who has watched playoff baseball knows that the formula is a little different in the playoffs.

[Jimcanuck]

Things are magnified in the playoffs because they are short series and every game is critical, as opposed to being 1 of 162.

[Spanky99]

Seattle has lost Winker for the season. That hurts them, especially after losing Haggerty.

 

Saw that on the ticker, Ouch.

[Spanky99]

They don't lose much by plugging in Santana at DH, but it takes away their only viable PH option. Schneider should have an easier time matching up with his bullpen now.

 

I thought the loss of Haggerty was important too, but I was corrected and told that he doesn't matter.

 

Losing Haggerty was certainly a blow, losing Winker on top of that is, brutal. Good for Toronto... so, me likey.

[Spanky99]

Agreed about the playoffs being magnified, and some luck will be huge, it's a crapshoot and why the best team doesn't always win. Can't wait for tomorrow. Go Jays Go!

 

The Gurriel and Espy injuries suck, they could still be available, who knows, I usually agree with our teams decisions, I'd also like to see Moreno or Biggio in LF over Tapia. These guys get on base, Tapia does not.