GDT: Jays (17-12) @ Guardians (13-14) Game 4 of 4 Sunday May 8, 2022 1:40pm

[saskjayfan]

Your boy, lol.

 

Well I was one of his biggest fans when he was struggling! I'm not saying I was jumping up and down when he was traded saying it was a bad trade, because I wasn't. I knew he wasn't as bad as his numbers were when we traded him, but I wasn't sure he would bounce back to be anything more than a tick above league average with the bat either. I always thought he had a high ceiling with the bat, just wasn't sure he would get there. He could easily fall back from his hot start too, but he's got it going right now.

[Spanky99]

Well I was one of his biggest fans when he was struggling! I'm not saying I was jumping up and down when he was traded saying it was a bad trade, because I wasn't. I knew he wasn't as bad as his numbers were when we traded him, but I wasn't sure he would bounce back to be anything more than a tick above league average with the bat either. I always thought he had a high ceiling with the bat, just wasn't sure he would get there. He could easily fall back from his hot start too, but he's got it going right now.

 

I'm just saying there were many more fanboys than yourself.

[Daniel Labude]

Their like Bang Bro's right now, lol. wRC+ 155/156 and people are worrying, lol.

 

Yep

[Olerud363]

So whats Soto's excuse?

 

I'm not arguing that Guerrero is struggling, others kind of were implying he was, and it was because Teo wasn't there.

 

As you point out neither Guerrero or Soto are hitting that bad, the new offensive environment is so wack that their OPS+ is still 150-160. Hell Matt Chapman's was still 100 until yesterday.

 

My point was that 'protection' doesn't matter. Soto perfect example. He's had a healthy and a productive Josh Bell behind him, who is at least equal and probably better than Teo. Soto still struggling with respect to his own standards.

 

As to the chase rate. If there is a slight problem with Guerrero it's chase rate, and to get back to 2021 level he needs to fix that, independent of who is back there, and just take his walks if he doesn't get a pitch to hit.

[Brownie19]

Well I was one of his biggest fans when he was struggling! I'm not saying I was jumping up and down when he was traded saying it was a bad trade, because I wasn't. I knew he wasn't as bad as his numbers were when we traded him, but I wasn't sure he would bounce back to be anything more than a tick above league average with the bat either. I always thought he had a high ceiling with the bat, just wasn't sure he would get there. He could easily fall back from his hot start too, but he's got it going right now.

 

Also a proud member of his fan club. Will always root for Rowdy.

[JFD]

That the bats suck and there was no hope? I probably said that but that was after 18 games and this is 30 with deeper slumps.

 

After 30 games it's becoming significant.

 

I meant your comment about this team not being suited for the new offensive environment. You said something similar to that last year after the horrible KC series and it stuck with me for some reason.. Maybe it's more true this year with the dead balls.

[Stangstag]

Dropping 3 of 4 against Cleveland sucks.

 

Hoping for a good showing in New York tomorrow

[Spanky99]

Dropping 3 of 4 against Cleveland sucks.

 

Hoping for a good showing in New York tomorrow

 

2 game Sweep...

[Olerud363]

I meant your comment about this team not being suited for the new offensive environment. You said something similar to that last year after the horrible KC series and it stuck with me for some reason.. Maybe it's more true this year with the dead balls.

 

I might have said that too, but that was not my original idea at all. Lots of people last year were speculating that the new ball was going to screw some Jays, especially Cavan Biggio, and remember heading into 2021 Cavan was the Jays best player in terms of fWAR from 2019 to 2020. People also thought Gurriel might take a hit.

 

Weird thing is 2021 played like a normal year. Offense was a bit down from 2019, and seemed to pick up after they cracked down on sticky stuff. Guys like Semien were putting up video game numbers still.

 

Now in 2022 it's like the party's over completely. Offense down and some guys, Semien, Biggio, Trevor Story, have completely fallen apart. Like those 3 combined form 2019-2021 were probably .270 .350 .500 and are now like .190 .250 .250.

 

So you have the collapse in offense and it also disproportionately effecting certain players.

 

Then listening to the Cleveland announcers on Satellite they claim the Indians are patient, hit to the opposite field and will take the world by storm in this new world....

[Olerud363]

Yeah.. so context for people who weren't following the changes with the baseball... they claimed they were doing it for 2021, but offense didn't totally collapse until 2022. Could be they still used old balls for 2021... could be short spring training. Could be pitchers were lost a bit without sticky stuff but have adjusted, could be short spring training, could be humidor, could be Camden Yards is now a homerun wasteland to left, could be all of it.

 

(obviously a change in one ball park isn't going to change much overall, but Camden and maybe the new Arlington park may both be pitchers parks now, and changed the math a bit, will be fun to watch Vlad hit a 118 mph 400 foot single in the new Camden.... or Chapman have the one ball he gets a hold of a week be a fly out.)

[Laika]

Yeah.. so context for people who weren't following the changes with the baseball... they claimed they were doing it for 2021, but offense didn't totally collapse until 2022. Could be they still used old balls for 2021... could be short spring training. Could be pitchers were lost a bit without sticky stuff but have adjusted, could be short spring training, could be humidor, could be Camden Yards is now a homerun wasteland to left, could be all of it.

 

(obviously a change in one ball park isn't going to change much overall, but Camden and maybe the new Arlington park may both be pitchers parks now, and changed the math a bit, will be fun to watch Vlad hit a 118 mph 400 foot single in the new Camden.... or Chapman have the one ball he gets a hold of a week be a fly out.)

 

The balls were mixed in 2021. Some of the new 2022 balls were in circulation but as far as I understand, many were the gopher balls still.

[Stangstag]

Manfred is f***ing dumb. Can’t wait for the documentary 20 years from now where they discuss how Manfred tinkered and f***ed with the ball for a decade

[Laika]

I dunno

 

Baseball is a technical sport with small margins for error/success

 

It has a long history of f***ery

 

Mound changes, wilful blindness with steroid use, spitballs, wonky stadiums, the list goes on and on

 

really, the ball probably went through massive changes in prior decades but we just didn't have the data to know

[Stangstag]

I dunno

 

Baseball is a technical sport with small margins for error/success

 

It has a long history of f***ery

 

Mound changes, wilful blindness with steroid use, spitballs, wonky stadiums, the list goes on and on

 

really, the ball probably went through massive changes in prior decades but we just didn't have the data to know

 

The difference I think is that with mound changes and stuff the league was super transparent about it.

 

Steroids and spitballs you can’t really compare because it was individual players cheating/bending the rules, much like using spider tack.

 

The ball seems to be frequently changed with no warning and no input from any of the players.

[jaysblue]

I would have said earlier, maybe a shorter spring training might have contributed to the downturn in offensive numbers, though that would have been maybe for the first two or three weeks of the season.

[Olerud363]

I dunno

 

Baseball is a technical sport with small margins for error/success

 

It has a long history of f***ery

 

Mound changes, wilful blindness with steroid use, spitballs, wonky stadiums, the list goes on and on

 

really, the ball probably went through massive changes in prior decades but we just didn't have the data to know

 

87 to 88 was a huge change. Similar to this with guys collapsing out of no where. Bell, Moseby and Barfield showed up at 28 years old and weren't the same guys any more. Bell was top 5 in MVP in 89, but with an crafty 18 homer 'clutch' hitting season... that's a lot of different than the 47 homer monster who won an RBI Juan Gonzales type MVP in 1987.

 

Then 93 to 94 was a huge change the other way, but maybe that was gradual from 92-94 with steroids becoming popular. Though 94 was weird with several guys becoming Babe Ruth/Ted Williams when no one had every seen that in 50 years.

[Krylian]

I would have said earlier, maybe a shorter spring training might have contributed to the downturn in offensive numbers, though that would have been maybe for the first two or three weeks of the season.

 

I would've guessed a shorter spring training would have a greater impact on pitchers.

[Jimcanuck]

I would've guessed a shorter spring training would have a greater impact on pitchers.

 

no its the reverse, historically pitcher numbers are better in the early going, decline from then on

[TwistedLogic]

I would have said earlier, maybe a shorter spring training might have contributed to the downturn in offensive numbers, though that would have been maybe for the first two or three weeks of the season.

 

Nah I looked into it. It's obvious the ball is dead and nothing else.

 

 

[Daniel Labude]

Nah I looked into it. It's obvious the ball is dead and nothing else.

 

 

 

Watch for numbers to rebound in warmer weather. Id say the temperature impacts the ball more than they say, causing the dead ball effect at the moment

[TwistedLogic]

Watch for numbers to rebound in warmer weather. Id say the temperature impacts the ball more than they say, causing the dead ball effect at the moment

 

If you read the post you quoted, I compared numbers only to this same time period last year. It's a nearly 30K plate appearance sample across the league. Averages and K/BB rates are practically identical to last year, power is way down. Has nothing to do with the weather unless April 2021 was somehow warmer than April 2022.

[Daniel Labude]

If you read the post you quoted, I compared numbers only to this same time period last year. It's a nearly 30K plate appearance sample across the league. Averages and K/BB rates are practically identical to last year, power is way down. Has nothing to do with the weather unless April 2021 was somehow warmer than April 2022.

 

1. They used this ball part of last year...so that makes sense potentially

2. It was colder longer and across the board this year

3. Have you filtered each year to see the difference between warmer weather and colder

[Deadpool]

If you read the post you quoted, I compared numbers only to this same time period last year. It's a nearly 30K plate appearance sample across the league. Averages and K/BB rates are practically identical to last year, power is way down. Has nothing to do with the weather unless April 2021 was somehow warmer than April 2022.

 

I don't know about everywhere, but last spring was much colder than this spring in my neck of the woods.

[ColdPint]

It’s embarrassing for MLB that they can’t even get a baseball that everyone agrees upon.

 

Never hear anything about the pucks in hockey or the footballs in the NFL.

[wilko]

It’s embarrassing for MLB that they can’t even get a baseball that everyone agrees upon.

 

Never hear anything about the pucks in hockey or the footballs in the NFL.

 

#glowpucks #deflategate

[Laika]

It’s embarrassing for MLB that they can’t even get a baseball that everyone agrees upon.

 

Never hear anything about the pucks in hockey or the footballs in the NFL.

 

"never hear anything about footballs in the NFL"

 

are you 3 years old?

[glory]

Did Manfred deaden the balls so that teams would stop promoting the three true outcomes and start changing their approach to hitting to a more viewer friendly approach? I'm not sure what the end game is here.

[Stangstag]

Did Manfred deaden the balls so that teams would stop promoting the three true outcomes and start changing their approach to hitting to a more viewer friendly approach? I'm not sure what the end game is here.

 

I think that’s the idea yeah. In the short term its just caused an increase in warning track flyball outs.