General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Brownie19]

Bryce Harper?

 

yes.

[Stangstag]

Would you give this guy 260M after these seasons?

 

wRC+

121

137

115

197

111

155

135

 

Depends what position he plays. Shortstop? absolutely every day. Outfield? fair. First base/DH? Maybe

[THANOS]

Depends what position he plays. Shortstop? absolutely every day. Outfield? fair. First base/DH? Maybe

 

Yes, position absolutely matters.

[G-Snarls]

Yes, position absolutely matters.

 

And do they play the position well

 

Does Harper provide value from OF play? Does Soto?

 

Does Tatis just because he plays SS?

 

Then again being even an average defender helps if you can put them somwhere besides 1B/DH because that keeps that spot open for a bat first player. The fact the NL has a DH now helps with guys like Soto and Harper long term.

[Daniel Labude]

And do they play the position well

 

Does Harper provide value from OF play? Does Soto?

 

Does Tatis just because he plays SS?

 

Soto is one of the worst OFs in baseball defensively

 

Harper has had been pretty bad as well with one year worst than Soto this year

 

Tatis wasn't very good but got better the last 2 seasons he played, but injuries forcing a position change to OF

[THANOS]

And do they play the position well

 

Does Harper provide value from OF play? Does Soto?

 

Does Tatis just because he plays SS?

 

Then again being even an average defender helps if you can put them somwhere besides 1B/DH because that keeps that spot open for a bat first player. The fact the NL has a DH now helps with guys like Soto and Harper long term.

 

I do wish 1B defense got more credit in fWAR than it currently gets.

 

That said, using fWAR & wRC+ is likely the best way to determine extensions.

[Stangstag]

And do they play the position well

 

Does Harper provide value from OF play? Does Soto?

 

Does Tatis just because he plays SS?

 

Then again being even an average defender helps if you can put them somwhere besides 1B/DH because that keeps that spot open for a bat first player. The fact the NL has a DH now helps with guys like Soto and Harper long term.

 

I think we can all agree Tatis>Harper>Soto>Vlad in terms of athleticism. Could probably move any of those guys to first base if it was needed later in their careers.

[Stangstag]

I do wish 1B defense got more credit in fWAR than it currently gets.

 

That said, using fWAR & wRC+ is likely the best way to determine extensions.

 

It is a bit confusing how Vlad has such negative defensive WAR, my eyes tell me he seems to play the position well and i've never heard anyone say he looks bad there (post-2020)

[Daniel Labude]

It is a bit confusing how Vlad has such negative defensive WAR, my eyes tell me he seems to play the position well and i've never heard anyone say he looks bad there (post-2020)

 

I think that is why a gold glove or a topish finish in the gold glove will negate his lower WAR (defensively caused) in the contract discussions

[Brownie19]

I hope to god Gold Glove trophies are NEVER mentioned during contract negotiations.

 

Can you imagine contract negotiations with Rafael Palmerio after he won the gold glove in 1999?

 

Agent - "well I think he's worth more - I mean he did just win the gold glove award!"

GM - "he won that award while starting 128 games at DH and 28 at first base. Kindly - f*** off"

Agent - "that's how good he is defensively at 1st base!"

[Jonn]

Vladdy’s current season is way more in line with his first 2 seasons. The expectation going’s forward is this more the norm from him. It can ofcourse get a little better but people need to accept 2021 might and probably won’t happen again.

[G-Snarls]

I hope to god Gold Glove trophies are NEVER mentioned during contract negotiations.

 

You know it happens though, come on

[Daniel Labude]

Vladdy’s current season is way more in line with his first 2 seasons. The expectation going’s forward is this more the norm from him. It can ofcourse get a little better but people need to accept 2021 might and probably won’t happen again.

 

I dont think 4 seasons, 3 being impacted by Covid and a lockout is a good baseline of expectations going forward for a 23 year old

[Solaxys]

Sign Vlad this year if its a team friendly deal. 20M/y or so for 10? do it.

I don't think Vlad will sign that. If Vlad and co. want to sign based on what he is capable of, then let him show that he can consistently produce that #.

This is not anyone judging him based on one good year or one mediocre year, its just a bad business if you invest into what can be than what is in front of you.

 

But I don't see us ever letting Vlad walk unless he completely and utterly regresses to insignificance; the question is just when is the best time to sign him - for us, its this year; for him, its definitely not this year unless he loves Toronto (like JRam loves CLE) and takes a paycut.

[jaysblue]

If you have to pay $300M + for Vlad now, better to wait maybe another year or so to see if he returns to his 2021 level where he can be a 5-6 WAR player consistently. Let him prove himself which benefits both him and the Jays. I doubt the price changes that much given he's a 1B/DH bat and will even be a couple of years older as well afterwards. If you're only getting a 3 WAR player like this season, he's not worth the $300M + contract.

[Orgfiller]

I dont think 4 seasons, 3 being impacted by Covid and a lockout is a good baseline of expectations going forward for a 23 year old

 

Not to mention, Vlad is 20 points higher by wRC+ than his first two seasons (where he was 20 and 21 lol) and his defense now is a lot better/much less negative than it used to be then. The projections see him as a ~150 wRC+ bat moving forward, and despite my own frustrations with him that seems quite attainable for a 23 year old with a career wRC+ of 133 through 500 MLB games.

 

Like that's really all you need to mention, he's 23 years old with over 2000 PAs in the MLB and a career wRC+ of 133. Yes, the position and lack of value added on the bases hurts him, but just about every projection system would have his current track record as a generational hitting talent. And his one flaw is that he hits a lot of grounders? It almost seems like a joke that fixing/improving on that by a bit is all it takes for him to become great. Doesn't strike out much, walks enough (2021 levels would be even better) and has unteachable raw power and contact ability.

[Captain_Obvious]

I dont think 4 seasons, 3 being impacted by Covid and a lockout is a good baseline of expectations going forward for a 23 year old

 

If you want to go with that logic, we should not count the juiced balls season either.

[Orgfiller]

I feel like if you look at risk profiles for a prospect, especially hitting wise, Vlad is so low on that chart. Which of these issues would you rather have on a seemingly prodigious hitting talent with one flaw:

 

- Injury prone/a headcase (Fernando Tatis Jr.)

- Too contact-oriented/swings a pool noodle (Wander Franco)

- Crushes the ball, all the time, but far too often on the ground (Vlad Jr.)

[jaysblue]

Not to mention, Vlad is 20 points higher by wRC+ than his first two seasons (where he was 20 and 21 lol) and his defense now is a lot better/much less negative than it used to be then. The projections see him as a ~150 wRC+ bat moving forward, and despite my own frustrations with him that seems quite attainable for a 23 year old with a career wRC+ of 133 through 500 MLB games.

 

Like that's really all you need to mention, he's 23 years old with over 2000 PAs in the MLB and a career wRC+ of 133. Yes, the position and lack of value added on the bases hurts him, but just about every projection system would have his current track record as a generational hitting talent. And his one flaw is that he hits a lot of grounders? It almost seems like a joke that fixing/improving on that by a bit is all it takes for him to become great. Doesn't strike out much, walks enough (2021 levels would be even better) and has unteachable raw power and contact ability.

 

Lets say if Vlad goes out in 2023 and 2024 posting similar numbers to his 2021 season, would he all of a sudden go from being a $300M + contract extension to a $400M contract extension? Like if we're all throwing numbers in the $300M range right now after his 2022 season, wouldn't it still be close to the same two years down the road? Sure maybe a little more money, though nothing too drastic.

[harvey16]

Weather not looking good in Baltimore over the next few days. What happens if games get rained out? There is no extra days now to make up games??

[jaysblue]

Weather not looking good in Baltimore over the next few days. What happens if games get rained out? There is no extra days now to make up games??

 

If the games are meaningless, I'm assuming you would have a double-header one of those days or MLB would just cancel them rather than having the Jays make up those games on the Thursday. If it's a definite that Seattle gets the second wildcard, no need to play those games on the Jays end. Baltimore is already eliminated as well.

[G-Snarls]

Ricky Romero co-hosting a show on MLB Network today

 

Says Manoah should win the Cy Young over Verlander because Manoah hasn't missed a start all season.

[jaysblue]

Ricky Romero co-hosting a show on MLB Network today

 

Says Manoah should win the Cy Young over Verlander because Manoah hasn't missed a start all season.

 

Manoah will only have made three more starts than Verlander at seasons end, unless Manoah pitches Game 162 lol.

[G-Snarls]

Manoah will only have made three more starts than Verlander at seasons end, unless Manoah pitches Game 162 lol.

 

 

Verlander

17-4

170 IP

1.80 ERA

175K

28 BB

FIP 2.57

ERA+ 214

 

Manoah

16-7

196.2 IP

2.24 ERA

180K

51 BB

FIP 3.35

ERA+ 174

 

Verlander should win it

[G-Snarls]

Ricky is still Blue Jays biased even though J.P. Riccardi dissed him and Alex Anthopolous dumped him

[jaysblue]

Ricky is still Blue Jays biased even though J.P. Riccardi dissed him and Alex Anthopolous dumped him

 

Maybe Manoah character wise reminds him a lot of his old self when he was pitching with the Jays.

[Deadpool]

Vladdy’s current season is way more in line with his first 2 seasons. The expectation going’s forward is this more the norm from him. It can ofcourse get a little better but people need to accept 2021 might and probably won’t happen again.

 

I'll give you "might" but I absolutely will not give you "probably".

[G-Snarls]

I'll give you "might" but I absolutely will not give you "probably".

 

Ditto

 

He likely has more huge seasons in his future.

 

I think he's too good a natural hitter not to.

[Solaxys]

 

Looks like Nate isn't gonna be here; next year it is.

[Daniel Labude]

Verlander

17-4

170 IP

1.80 ERA

175K

28 BB

FIP 2.57

ERA+ 214

 

Manoah

16-7

196.2 IP

2.24 ERA

180K

51 BB

FIP 3.35

ERA+ 174

 

Verlander should win it

 

Verlander should win it...but Manoah has a case. If he can increase his K rate vs LHH in future seasons he definitely has a good chance to win one