General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Jonn]

This is why it was important acquiring another SP at the deadline. Mitch White will fill in nicely for Stripling, but now have to hope Kikuchi doesn't implode and the Jays big three of Gausman, Manoah and Berrios stay healthy or else things could get ugly. Lack of depth in the rotation is worrisome.

 

It’s also why you don’t trade Max Castillo. I would feel much more comfortable with our depth if he was still in the picture.

[Laika]

This is why it was important acquiring another SP at the deadline. Mitch White will fill in nicely for Stripling, but now have to hope Kikuchi doesn't implode and the Jays big three of Gausman, Manoah and Berrios stay healthy or else things could get ugly. Lack of depth in the rotation is worrisome.

 

For a full MLB season yes the rotation is too thin

 

But they only have 59 games left

 

And 6 off days on the calendar

 

So they may not need the SP5 slot for as many turns as we think.

 

And they have some cushion in the WC race now too. And most of the teams chasing them are clearly inferior. And a relative easy schedule too.

 

fingers crossed

 

worst case ontario just call up Ricky Tiedemann and ask him to give you 4 competitive innings

[jaysblue]

For a full MLB season yes the rotation is too thin

 

But they only have 59 games left

 

And 6 off days on the calendar

 

So they may not need the SP5 slot for as many turns as we think.

 

And they have some cushion in the WC race now too. And most of the teams chasing them are clearly inferior. And a relative easy schedule too.

 

fingers crossed

 

worst case ontario just call up Ricky Tiedemann and ask him to give you 4 competitive innings

 

Yeah fingers crossed.

 

Just need to get to the Postseason right now and the top of this rotation is good enough in a short series. If Kikuchi implodes or the Jays lose one of Gausman, Manoah or Berrios for an extended period, things could definitely spiral out of control quickly.

[jaysblue]

It’s also why you don’t trade Max Castillo. I would feel much more comfortable with our depth if he was still in the picture.

 

Yup. I'm not losing sleep over his long term potential because he was traded, though he was a nice arm to have around for depth. Wish they could have traded another arm who wasn't at the MLB level, but oh well.

[jerb]

 

Tim and Friends

@timandfriends

 

Fresh off a busy MLB trade deadline... Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins joins us today!

 

Tune in LIVE at 5 ET / 2 PT on @Sportsnet

[jaysblue]

 

Tim and Friends

@timandfriends

 

Fresh off a busy MLB trade deadline... Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins joins us today!

 

Tune in LIVE at 5 ET / 2 PT on @Sportsnet

 

Bring back Sid!

[jerb]

 

OverDrive

@OverDrive1050

 

A double dose of GMs on today’s edition of OverDrive as both Ross Atkins and Alex Anthopoulos join the show!⚾️

 

Watch on TSN4. Listen

@TSN1050Radio

[jaysblue]

 

OverDrive

@OverDrive1050

 

A double dose of GMs on today’s edition of OverDrive as both Ross Atkins and Alex Anthopoulos join the show!⚾️

 

Watch on TSN4. Listen

@TSN1050Radio

 

OneDrive > Tim and Friends

[Dagagad]

 

I found this interesting because it goes against everything I believe lol.

 

Although I still think that swing and miss is important in the regular season but the playoffs is a crap shoot where all you need is for your bullpen to get hot (and lucky). Or maybe swing and miss isn’t that important?

[Big Sexy]

 

I found this interesting because it goes against everything I believe lol.

 

Although I still think that swing and miss is important in the regular season but the playoffs is a crap shoot where all you need is for your bullpen to get hot (and lucky). Or maybe swing and miss isn’t that important?

 

Honestly surprised KC was so low

 

In my memory that BP was elite in 2015

[Krylian]

 

I found this interesting because it goes against everything I believe lol.

 

Although I still think that swing and miss is important in the regular season but the playoffs is a crap shoot where all you need is for your bullpen to get hot (and lucky). Or maybe swing and miss isn’t that important?

 

Where does the Jays BP rank in swing & miss this season?

[max silver]

Where does the Jays BP rank in swing & miss this season?

 

According to Fangraphs down in 28th place.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=10,d

[Brownie19]

According to Fangraphs down in 28th place.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=10,d

 

Jesus, there's only 3.1% difference between 1st and last. 1% from the Jays jumping from 28th to 13th. Do these very small margins make a tangible difference? Perhaps that Chris Black tweet suggests they don't? Beats me.

[Laika]

 

I found this interesting because it goes against everything I believe lol.

 

Although I still think that swing and miss is important in the regular season but the playoffs is a crap shoot where all you need is for your bullpen to get hot (and lucky). Or maybe swing and miss isn’t that important?

 

Not really a good measure. Playoff teams tend to add good RP at the deadline so full season SWSTR is not necessarily bullpen SWSTR during the playoffs.

 

But this is more or less to be expected. The bullpen is less important than the starters of course and this is just one specific aspect of the pen; I would not expect to see a strong result in small/random samples like the playoffs. I would imagine you'd still see a positive correlation if you looked at bullpen SWSTR vs winning and of course you would see one if you looked at bullpen SWSTR vs bullpen results (ERA).

 

This also really muddles the water because playoff bullpens are not regular season pens. Most teams in the playoffs have a functional pen of like 3-4 best RP and their SPs who are shifted into the pen; all other relievers tend to only get used in mop up roles. Like a guy can be a borderline setup RP all season and not have that role in the playoffs.

[Carlos Danger]

Bunch of guys look like they were banned. What happened, which thread, share the gossip!

[Brownie19]

Not really a good measure. Playoff teams tend to add good RP at the deadline so full season SWSTR is not necessarily bullpen SWSTR during the playoffs.

 

But this is more or less to be expected. The bullpen is less important than the starters of course and this is just one specific aspect of the pen; I would not expect to see a strong result in small/random samples like the playoffs. I would imagine you'd still see a positive correlation if you looked at bullpen SWSTR vs winning and of course you would see one if you looked at bullpen SWSTR vs bullpen results (ERA).

 

This also really muddles the water because playoff bullpens are not regular season pens. Most teams in the playoffs have a functional pen of like 3-4 best RP and their SPs who are shifted into the pen; all other relievers tend to only get used in mop up roles. Like a guy can be a borderline setup RP all season and not have that role in the playoffs.

 

That's fair - but what about my comment. A 3% difference from 1st to last doesn't seem like a tangible difference at all. The best team gets 3 more swinging strikes per 100 pitches than the worst team? I find it hard to believe that 3-4 more swinging strikes per game makes a major difference. Am I wrong?

[Laika]

That's fair - but what about my comment. A 3% difference from 1st to last doesn't seem like a tangible difference at all. The best team gets 3 more swinging strikes per 100 pitches than the worst team? I find it hard to believe that 3-4 more swinging strikes per game makes a major difference. Am I wrong?

 

I think that's a bit of a data presentation issue

 

the difference between 10.2% and 13.3% is actually 30.4%. As in, team B is 30.4% better than team A.

 

You wouldn't really expect teams to be like, TWICE AS GOOD at a granular skill that literally everybody chases and values, right? That doesn't track with most of the other stuff in baseball; you don't see teams with .250 OBPs and teams with .400 OBPs, it's more like .280 to .330.

 

You actually see these types of issues all the time in medical statistics that the general public has trouble wrapping their heads around. Like you'll see "QOVID20 kills 0.1% of infected men and 0.5% of infected women" or something like that. People on Facebook will say "women are only 0.4% more likely to die than men, QOVID20 does not discriminate, don't be scared ladies!" and it's like, no, you are FIVE TIMES as likely to die as men! You should be scared.

 

On the team level, three extra whiffs per 100 pitches is a lot, over the course of a whole season. Even think anecdotally, imaging it's one pitcher throwing a 100 pitch outing... three extra whiffs could mean one extra strikeout and two less balls in play. Could be a big deal even in that one start. Would be meaningful for sure across many starts.

[Laika]

Bunch of guys look like they were banned. What happened, which thread, share the gossip!

 

just 1 day timeouts for refusing to stop posting about vaxx / covid s***

[Dagagad]

Not really a good measure. Playoff teams tend to add good RP at the deadline so full season SWSTR is not necessarily bullpen SWSTR during the playoffs.

 

But this is more or less to be expected. The bullpen is less important than the starters of course and this is just one specific aspect of the pen; I would not expect to see a strong result in small/random samples like the playoffs. I would imagine you'd still see a positive correlation if you looked at bullpen SWSTR vs winning and of course you would see one if you looked at bullpen SWSTR vs bullpen results (ERA).

 

This also really muddles the water because playoff bullpens are not regular season pens. Most teams in the playoffs have a functional pen of like 3-4 best RP and their SPs who are shifted into the pen; all other relievers tend to only get used in mop up roles. Like a guy can be a borderline setup RP all season and not have that role in the playoffs.

 

Yea, good point. A playoff bullpen includes starters and lops off innings from the worst guys.

 

I still see in season swinging strike rate as a good indicator that a team is good at the ‘pitching thing’ or at least they have been good for a while. You need to have a pretty deep strike throwing pen to be good at this over an entire season and that requires org depth.

[Brownie19]

I think that's a bit of a data presentation issue

 

the difference between 10.2% and 13.3% is actually 30.4%. As in, team B is 30.4% better than team A.

 

You wouldn't really expect teams to be like, TWICE AS GOOD at a granular skill that literally everybody chases and values, right? That doesn't track with most of the other stuff in baseball; you don't see teams with .250 OBPs and teams with .400 OBPs, it's more like .280 to .330.

 

You actually see these types of issues all the time in medical statistics that the general public has trouble wrapping their heads around. Like you'll see "QOVID20 kills 0.1% of infected men and 0.5% of infected women" or something like that. People on Facebook will say "women are only 0.4% more likely to die than men, QOVID20 does not discriminate, don't be scared ladies!" and it's like, no, you are FIVE TIMES as likely to die as men! You should be scared.

 

On the team level, three extra whiffs per 100 pitches is a lot, over the course of a whole season. Even think anecdotally, imaging it's one pitcher throwing a 100 pitch outing... three extra whiffs could mean one extra strikeout and two less balls in play. Could be a big deal even in that one start. Would be meaningful for sure across many starts.

 

Thank you for correctly pointing out how dumb I am. I still struggle to believe this makes a huge difference. If you're comparing the Jays at 28th v. 10th place (because if we were 10th in the league, nobody would be talking about this), it's a difference of 1.1% and if we're just looking at relief pitchers and assuming they throw 50 pitches per game on average, that's only 0.55 more swinging strikes per game out of the pen. I can't wrap my head around that being the difference between winning and losing consistently. Or at least that it matters enough that media outlets and fans are so focused on the Jays lack of swing and miss stuff in our bullpen. I'll just go back to my day job.

[Laika]

Thank you for correctly pointing out how dumb I am. I still struggle to believe this makes a huge difference. If you're comparing the Jays at 28th v. 10th place (because if we were 10th in the league, nobody would be talking about this), it's a difference of 1.1% and if we're just looking at relief pitchers and assuming they throw 50 pitches per game on average, that's only 0.55 more swinging strikes per game out of the pen. I can't wrap my head around that being the difference between winning and losing consistently. Or at least that it matters enough that media outlets and fans are so focused on the Jays lack of swing and miss stuff in our bullpen. I'll just go back to my day job.

 

No I mostly agree with you. It's not as important as the media says. There are different ways to pitch well... SWSTR is great if it helps you have better K-BB results but there are other ways to get there, like called strikes or limiting walks or generating foul balls (there are pitches that are good at getting foul balls but not great at getting whiffs). Also non K-BB factors like ground ball rate. And of course some pitchers with high whiff rates also have high BB rates which becomes counterproductive at a point.

 

Like, Toronto pen ranks higher in called strike rate so their CSW% is better than their SWSTR%.

 

Toronto pen is also good at limiting hits on balls in play, I wonder if that is defense related or maybe a bit of it is due to having funko pitchers like Cimber

[Omar]

I like this guy already…

 

[gruber92]

Bo finally gets dropped a spot to fifth, but hitting ahead of Gurriel is still a head scratcher. Merrifield in CF batting eighth while Springer is back leading off DHing.

[M.E.]

Bo finally gets dropped a spot to fifth, but hitting ahead of Gurriel is still a head scratcher. Merrifield in CF batting eighth while Springer is back leading off DHing.

 

They push collins down. How the hell does Zimmer survive? I thought for sure he was going with Whit coming in

[Terminator]

They push collins down. How the hell does Zimmer survive? I thought for sure he was going with Whit coming in

 

Since neither of them ever play they went with the defensive replacement/pinch runner over the emergency catcher. Also Collins has an option and Zimmer doesn't.

[Laika]

Zimmer is definitely more useful than Collins. You can use Zimmer a little bit here and there. But Toronto has like ONE player you might ever pinch hit for with Collins (Espinal) and even then it's so specific because Espinal is a better contact hitter against even RHP I bet.

[Terminator]

Merrifield is starting in CF tonight. We could see a lot of that with Springer playing hurt. When Springer is in the OF Merrifield probably plays a lot at 2B. After an awful April he's been really hot, hopefully he can keep it up.

[Brownie19]

Since neither of them ever play they went with the defensive replacement/pinch runner over the emergency catcher. Also Collins has an option and Zimmer doesn't.

 

That's the primary reason right there.

[L54]

Would way rather have Zimmer than Collins on the roster

 

Zimmer does a couple things well. Collins does nothing

[max silver]

Merrifield is starting in CF tonight. We could see a lot of that with Springer playing hurt. When Springer is in the OF Merrifield probably plays a lot at 2B. After an awful April he's been really hot, hopefully he can keep it up.

 

I'm curious to see what Merrifield has to offer with the bat. His April start was amazingly bad at 1 WRC+, but this included a .162 BABIP for a guy with a .323 career BABIP mark. He didn't really catch fire until July though as he had rather pedestrian months of May and June with WRC+ values of 93 and 78. He has hit better on the road vs at home this season with 71 WRC+ at home vs 88 on the road so hopefully he gets a bit of a bump from playing in more favorable offensive environments.