General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Olerud363]

That isn't true. BB% and K% fluctuate throughout the year. Last year Vlad's best offensive month was June (220 wRC+), but he also had a K% of 24% In September his K% was only 12%. You can't just watch his BB% and K% regress back to his career averages (or better) and caulk that up to Teo returning and give yourself the W.

 

Not sure it's the smart move to fight this. Jays offense will regress back to true talent level and they will also face easier competition. All of a sudden they will look like one of the best offenses in the league and it will correlate with Teo coming back... Correlation is not Causation, but that's going be hard to argue on this board.

[Daniel Labude]

No Teo or Springer tonight

[connorp]

No Teo or Springer tonight

 

That has all the makings of a sexy lineup then.

[JaysAllMighty]

Why no Springer?

 

[JuniorFelix54]

Damn do I hope you are right! I would LOVE to see Chappy explode.

 

Wouldn't we all, I'd like to see all of them explode but Chapman is going to hit .210-.220 and be good for a HR once every 5 games or so and that's about it

[Stangstag]

No Teo or Springer tonight

 

Yeesh.

 

Tap probably leading off then

[Daniel Labude]

Yeesh.

 

Tap probably leading off then

 

Yep

[JuniorFelix54]

Why no Springer?

 

 

Montoyo manager of the year, the team's averaging 1.5 runs a game might as well bench the guy who has been accounting for half of that the past week. Benches Springer but there's Zimmer back in there again, that's f***ing incredible

[JaysAllMighty]

this is what someone tweeted, not sure if it's the truth

 

[JuniorFelix54]

this is what someone tweeted, not sure if it's the truth

 

 

Exactly how many hours before a game do you need to arrive to play? 11 hours ago and there's still 3 hours til game time. Available off the bench but can't start? That makes sense...

[Stangstag]

this is what someone tweeted, not sure if it's the truth

 

 

Saw him go to a knee on one swing yesterday… telltale sign he’s hurt something.

 

He should NOT be available off the bench, give the guy a full day off

[Brownie19]

Wouldn't we all, I'd like to see all of them explode but Chapman is going to hit .210-.220 and be good for a HR once every 5 games or so and that's about it

 

which still makes him a 4 WAR player - which is all star level.

[glory]

Charlie’s love for Joe Panik wasn’t as obnoxious as his love for Tapia is now. At least Panik was a good player at one point.

[Daniel Labude]

Saw him go to a knee on one swing yesterday… telltale sign he’s hurt something.

 

He should NOT be available off the bench, give the guy a full day off

 

He does that 100% healthy lol

 

Also, probably weather related for both

[Deadpool]

Charlie’s love for Joe Panik wasn’t as obnoxious as his love for Tapia is now. At least Panik was a good player at one point.

 

Despite the absolutely putrid results (and man, have they been putrid), Tapia's expected numbers have actually been quite decent, he's just unable to get anything to fall in at all. He's hitting the ball in the air a lot more this year, and he's hitting the ball hard.

 

xBA: .293

xSLG: .465

xwOBA: .321

 

He should never, ever bat anywhere near the top of the order though. Good god no, but I'd absolutely take him over Panik any day of the week.

[max silver]

Despite the absolutely putrid results (and man, have they been putrid), Tapia's expected numbers have actually been quite decent, he's just unable to get anything to fall in at all. He's hitting the ball in the air a lot more this year, and he's hitting the ball hard.

 

xBA: .293

xSLG: .465

xwOBA: .321

 

He should never, ever bat anywhere near the top of the order though. Good god no, but I'd absolutely take him over Panik any day of the week.

 

If Charlie were to bat him appropriately in the 8th or 9th spot it would be a lot easier to handle seeing his name in the lineup.

 

Tapia's expected stats look nice but the hits haven't been dropping for him as you say. Something I've wondered about is whether statcast is able to account for increased drag levels on the baseball. This year's baseball looks to have greatly increased drag compared to recent seasons and league wide offence is down to a large degree as a result. Maybe this could lead to some pretty sizeable gaps between WOBA and xWOBA when the ball simply doesn't travel to the same degree as the quality of contact would suggest.

[glory]

Despite the absolutely putrid results (and man, have they been putrid), Tapia's expected numbers have actually been quite decent, he's just unable to get anything to fall in at all. He's hitting the ball in the air a lot more this year, and he's hitting the ball hard.

 

xBA: .293

xSLG: .465

xwOBA: .321

 

He should never, ever bat anywhere near the top of the order though. Good god no, but I'd absolutely take him over Panik any day of the week.

 

Yeah I noticed the increased statcast numbers, but Charlie isn't even waiting until it manifests into results before he starts batting him 1st, or 5th, or 6th. Panik was awful, but Buntoyo being a minor league manager showing respect to a vetrin who used to be good at least had some (annoying) logic to it. But Tapia has sucked for years, and this year he has still sucked while having better underlying numbers. His road slash line with the Rockies was .243/.285/.320 (61 wRC+). I just don't get why he's been given so much reverence by Charlie.

[M.E.]

Yeah I noticed the increased statcast numbers, but Charlie isn't even waiting until it manifests into results before he starts batting him 1st, or 5th, or 6th. Panik was awful, but Buntoyo being a minor league manager showing respect to a vetrin who used to be good at least had some (annoying) logic to it. But Tapia has sucked for years, and this year he has still sucked while having better underlying numbers. His road slash line with the Rockies was .243/.285/.320 (61 wRC+). I just don't get why he's been given so much reverence by Charlie.

 

I have zero belief that Charlie makes the line up.

[Stangstag]

I have zero belief that Charlie makes the line up.

 

There's no way the front office is deciding to bat Tapia 1st and Kirk 8th. Kirk still projects to be the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in today's lineup.

[M.E.]

There's no way the front office is deciding to bat Tapia 1st and Kirk 8th. Kirk still projects to be the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in today's lineup.

 

If the front office isn't I can't understand why they would let him do these things. They have tighter hold on the organization and what it does then to let Charlie be Charlie

[JFD]

Where do I go to complain about todays lineup?

[gruber92]

I have zero belief that Charlie makes the line up.

 

I think it's a combined effort, but ultimately Shatkins calls the shots on the field. This is why Chuckles was hired in the first place and I'm not holding my breath that we'll see a strong independent manager managing this team anytime soon.

[Stangstag]

If the front office isn't I can't understand why they would let him do these things. They have tighter hold on the organization and what it does then to let Charlie be Charlie

 

The answer is that they probably feel that the lineup construction ultimately doesn’t matter.

 

I think I recall a study that shows over the course of an entire year, the worst possible lineup every day vs the best possible lineup every day amounts to +\- 1 win or something.

[Stangstag]

Where do I go to complain about todays lineup?

 

Better to just ignore it and enjoy watching the game. We could whine about the lineup almost every single game with genius Charlie in charge

[Spanky99]

Danny Jansen (oblique) is with the Blue Jays in Cleveland to participate in pre-game activities.

 

Advice: Jansen will do some running and hit in the batting cages, according to Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet. The backstop told reporters he's hopeful to begin a rehab assignment soon, but that will depend on how he feels as his workouts intensify. The 27-year-old looks like he's on track to return before the end of the month, but when he can start that rehab assignment will obviously play a big part in his timeline.

[BigCecil]

The answer is that they probably feel that the lineup construction ultimately doesn’t matter.

I think I recall a study that shows over the course of an entire year, the worst possible lineup every day vs the best possible lineup every day amounts to +\- 1 win or something.

 

How many games did we miss the playoffs by last year again? Uno.

 

I just ask myself in what world does it make sense to have Tapia get more PA's in a game than Vlad? There is no excuse for that in a W or L for us. On the FO and Charlie. This is a bizarro decision in 2022.

 

Even if you apply the old school lead off hitter rationale, he isn't BBing, he is still K'ing 18% of the time and he is fast but not that fast. I think 60th percentile speed. His underlying numbers are better but still makes no sense.

[Laika]

I think I finally figured out the WHY TAPIA question with inspiration from the Athletic article today from Eno Sarris about the value of swinging.

 

Basically:

 

- Swinging has negative value in most run environments. The teams that swing less, win more.

- Players demonstrate this with their actions but the best example is Alex Bregman saying "I only swing at pitches I think I can homer on"

- The only exception is in very low home run environments where teams that swing more start to win more. 2014 Royals an example, and apparently in 2014 the general trend of "swing less = win more" was reversed. Remember in 2014 MLB had the lowest HR numbers in like, 20 years, and that prompted them to probably juice the baseballs. When it is very hard to hit home runs, singles become relatively more valuable so swinging more starts to have value and teams start to value high contact swingers as opposed to patient sluggers.

 

I think perhaps Toronto knew about the ball and humidor changes in 2022 and thought they needed to diversify and bring in some higher contact swingers with speed, etc. Like 2014 Royals type of s***.

 

Note that the Yankees did the same s***, arguably, in bringing in Kiner-Kalefa.

 

I think this is the major premise under which ROCKET RAIMEL TAPIA was brought in. The team thought he would be a good hedge against a massive scoring environment change.

 

RESULTS TO BE DETERMINED IT IS STILL EARLY.

 

But yeah the HR rate is the lowest since 2014!

[DigitalRock]

I have zero belief that Charlie makes the line up.

 

We're down this idiotic narrative that shatkins decides the lineup?

[Olerud363]

I think I finally figured out the WHY TAPIA question with inspiration from the Athletic article today from Eno Sarris about the value of swinging.

 

Basically:

 

- Swinging has negative value in most run environments. The teams that swing less, win more.

- Players demonstrate this with their actions but the best example is Alex Bregman saying "I only swing at pitches I think I can homer on"

- The only exception is in very low home run environments where teams that swing more start to win more. 2014 Royals an example, and apparently in 2014 the general trend of "swing less = win more" was reversed. Remember in 2014 MLB had the lowest HR numbers in like, 20 years, and that prompted them to probably juice the baseballs. When it is very hard to hit home runs, singles become relatively more valuable so swinging more starts to have value and teams start to value high contact swingers as opposed to patient sluggers.

 

I think perhaps Toronto knew about the ball and humidor changes in 2022 and thought they needed to diversify and bring in some higher contact swingers with speed, etc. Like 2014 Royals type of s***.

 

Note that the Yankees did the same s***, arguably, in bringing in Kiner-Kalefa.

 

I think this is the major premise under which ROCKET RAIMEL TAPIA was brought in. The team thought he would be a good hedge against a massive scoring environment change.

 

RESULTS TO BE DETERMINED IT IS STILL EARLY.

 

But yeah the HR rate is the lowest since 2014!

 

The 2014 Royals had a bad offense. Why would anyone care whether swinging is correlated to wins? Need to know how it's correlated to scoring runs.

[bones10]

I think I finally figured out the WHY TAPIA question with inspiration from the Athletic article today from Eno Sarris about the value of swinging.

 

Basically:

 

- Swinging has negative value in most run environments. The teams that swing less, win more.

- Players demonstrate this with their actions but the best example is Alex Bregman saying "I only swing at pitches I think I can homer on"

- The only exception is in very low home run environments where teams that swing more start to win more. 2014 Royals an example, and apparently in 2014 the general trend of "swing less = win more" was reversed. Remember in 2014 MLB had the lowest HR numbers in like, 20 years, and that prompted them to probably juice the baseballs. When it is very hard to hit home runs, singles become relatively more valuable so swinging more starts to have value and teams start to value high contact swingers as opposed to patient sluggers.

 

I think perhaps Toronto knew about the ball and humidor changes in 2022 and thought they needed to diversify and bring in some higher contact swingers with speed, etc. Like 2014 Royals type of s***.

 

Note that the Yankees did the same s***, arguably, in bringing in Kiner-Kalefa.

 

I think this is the major premise under which ROCKET RAIMEL TAPIA was brought in. The team thought he would be a good hedge against a massive scoring environment change.

 

RESULTS TO BE DETERMINED IT IS STILL EARLY.

 

But yeah the HR rate is the lowest since 2014!

 

What I don't understand is the main reason, in my opinion, baseball is disliked by a lot of people is the fact the games are way too long. While the juiced ball was a lot of fun to watch, offense in baseball lengthens the f*** out of the games. Longer at bats, longer innings, more pitching changes all increase the game time. To be fair, pitching dominating lowers how long it takes to complete a game but it is also not really a solution as pitching and no bats is often seen as "boring as tears".

 

I'm not really sure the solution, pitch clock seems to be a step in the right direction, but baseball games will.always tend to be longer than basketball or hockey game and that combined with 162 game schedule will be a tough buy from a casuals perspective. I think baseball will always occupy a niche at the minimum, but a continued decline in viewership wouldn't be surpirsing