Semien/Ray/Matz vs Chapman/Gausman/Kikuchi

[Jays24]

I believe most can agree that we essentially have the same team but swapped Semien/Ray/Matz for Chapman/Gausman/Kikuchi. Now I understand the easy answer could be the top 3 finalist and CY Young winner from last year but I think the answer is a bit more complicated than that.

 

First, you'd have to assume that Ray/Semien would be able to replicate the same year after cashing in on their performances. Then you have to be an optimist and believe Chapman has more room for improvements and will be hungry for his big pay day exactly like Semien was prior to joining us.

 

You'd also have to consider factors like Semien being a 2B, which created a hole for us at 3B whereas a player like Chapman plugs that hole and let's Biggio play in his more suitable position at 2B.

 

So ultimately, which trio of players would you want on this team going forward if money wasn't a factor for the Jays? And if you feel the answer is Semien/Ray/Matz, do you feel we're a worse team than last year? Or do you assume the uptick in our young players should easily cover the downgrade and more?

[JFD]

Can I take Semien/Chapman/Ray?

[Jays24]

Can I take Semien/Chapman/Ray?

 

No, you fail the test.

[connorp]

Freeman/J Ram/Ray

[Jays24]

Freeman/J Ram/Ray

 

2 F's and counting lol.

[connorp]

2 F's and counting lol.

 

I’ve never been good at coloring inside the lines

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hard to say, I mean flip a coin really. Chapman maybe tips the scales in the latter trio's favor because I think he fits a much bigger need at 3B defensively than Semien did at 2B.

 

Bottom line is I'm more excited this year because I see the "trio-swap" as a wash basically, and we are starting the season with Berrios/Manoah instead of Roark/Zeuch and the bullpen looks much better on paper at least.

[L54]

Add their salaries to the equation and then ask the same question

[Spanky99]

Steib, Halladay and Gruber, the latter's a good fit at 3rd base, to be honest.

[connorp]

Steib, Halladay and Gruber, the latter's a good fit at 3rd base, to be honest.

 

You meant to type: Baileys/Stoli/Goldschlager

[Spanky99]

You meant to type: Baileys/Stoli/Goldschlager

 

Eat a truckload of dicks, Achmed... before I wreck you, ya minion.

 

[InsideThePark]

I think it's a more interesting question once you factor in the opportunity cost. We lose 2 picks by resigning Semien and Ray but we keep Hoglund, Smith++. However we're spending 25 million on a 2nd baseman for the rest of the decade basically.

 

I like the route we took.

[Stangstag]

Hard to say, I mean flip a coin really. Chapman maybe tips the scales in the latter trio's favor because I think he fits a much bigger need at 3B defensively than Semien did at 2B.

 

Bottom line is I'm more excited this year because I see the "trio-swap" as a wash basically, and we are starting the season with Berrios/Manoah instead of Roark/Zeuch and the bullpen looks much better on paper at least.

 

I forgot we started the season with Zeuch and Roark in the rotation. Ooof.

[Grant77]

Tough call. I think last year's trio will have higher WAR, but it also means Biggio at 3B.

[Deadpool]

All things being equal, I'd probably take Ray over Gausman (though, that may be more a "devil you know" thing, since they really are pretty close talent level), but I take Chapman over Semien and Kikuchi over Matz, so I like this year better.

[HERPDERP]

I'm pretty high on Kikuchi and have full trust in Pete

[G-Snarls]

I voted for Semien and Ray but I think the difference overall is small

[Jimcanuck]

If you asked the question a year ago, probably the 2nd grouping easily. Just goes to show the year to year volatility of the game.

 

Considering recent and career results for these players, its now a toss up.

[TheHurl]

I don't think that there is any chance that those three put up 13.4 wins. I also don't think the three we had last year will either. The difference in this season should be an extra 200ish innings from Manoah and Berrios. A hopefully 200 extra (healthy) PA's from Springer, and not having to waste him in a DH spot. Biggio and Espinal in positions where they can help the team. And a good enough start to add at the deadline without having to come from outside a playoff spot would be hopeful too.

[TwistedLogic]

I'm taking Gausman, Chapman and Kikuchi (even though I don't like Kikuchi) because I'm a homer.

 

I was also among the few fans that really didn't care about losing Semien, Ray and Matz. I thought a scenario in which the Jays brought all three of those guys back was the most boring potential outcome of this off-season so I'm pretty glad it didn't happen.

 

I also don't subscribe to the idea that the Jays are just running it back with an even or worse roster to what they had last year.

 

Bichette and Gurriel both looked much better defensively by the end of the season, Chapman will have a massive impact with the glove, the rotation is much stronger to start the season, there's a potential to have Pearson and Merryweather as healthy pen arms, Springer will hopefully be more healthy, they'll have full seasons of Manoah Cimber and Richards, Moreno will likely be up at some point, Biggio and Jansen both had health-related struggles and began bouncing back in the second half last year and, hopefully, Montoyo will be less of a f***ing troglodyte after getting another year of experience.

 

There are obviously a lot of variables that can hurt the team but there are just as many things that can go right and improve the team.

[max silver]

I don't think that there is any chance that those three put up 13.4 wins. I also don't think the three we had last year will either. The difference in this season should be an extra 200ish innings from Manoah and Berrios. A hopefully 200 extra (healthy) PA's from Springer, and not having to waste him in a DH spot. Biggio and Espinal in positions where they can help the team. And a good enough start to add at the deadline without having to come from outside a playoff spot would be hopeful too.

 

Some key subtractions will really help the club out as well. Removed are the likes of professional hitter Joe Panik, Rowdy Tellez and pitching staff dumpster fires the likes of Zeuch, Hand and Roark. This group combined for -2.1 WAR. The depth will need to step up this season to avoid a repeat "performance".

[Signal]

I think it might be a push.

 

What will make the Jays a MUCH better team this year is the strong possibility that many of the young players on the team will become more experienced fielders and batters. They now have had a couple of years under their belt playing some big games and coming close. Third year is the charm. Those at bats in high pressure games, the young talent is now much better prepared for those moments. AND yes, defensively the young talent made a lot of mistakes last year and do think that too will improve.

[Key22]

Ray, Semien, Matz were probably as good as they get.

 

Chapman and Kikuchi have rebound/upside potential and Gausman seems to be about a draw.

 

But Ray, Semien, Matz did it in the AL East so they are more of a known quantity.

 

Still, the opening day roster has to be considered a massive MASSIVE upgrade to what we had on opening day last year.

 

This year you have 5 good or better than good starting pitchers. We have Berrios and Manoah all year. We don't have Biggio at third base.

 

We have guys like Richards and Cimber and a healthy Mayza from the beginning of the year over Tyler Chatwood and Dolis stinking it up.

[wamco]

I think it's a more interesting question once you factor in the opportunity cost. We lose 2 picks by resigning Semien and Ray but we keep Hoglund, Smith++. However we're spending 25 million on a 2nd baseman for the rest of the decade basically.

 

I like the route we took.

 

This along with L54 reminding to keep salaries in mind are pertinent points. If/when we use the funds saved (from semien to chapman), I think that will tip the scales to this year’s squad.

To me Kikuchi is a complete wild card where I believe in matz going forward. Semien will have a significant war drop off from last year while Chapman should increase over last year imo.