Around Baseball 2022

[G-Snarls]

AL ROTY Julio Rodriguez

 

No surprise there

[glory]

 

Losing Rizzo to the Astros would be a gut punch for the Yankees.

[G-Snarls]

NL ROTY Michael Harris II

[G-Snarls]

 

Losing Rizzo to the Astros would be a gut punch for the Yankees.

 

All while they're forced to pay Judge huge $$ to age 41

 

Hehehe

[Laika]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/adley-rutschman-earns-full-service-year-with-rookie-of-the-year-runner-up.html

 

Interesting that the new rookie promotion rules matter in year 1

 

Seattle gets a bonus draft pick for having J Rod on their roster all year because he won ROTY.

 

Meanwhile Rutschman would not have received a full year of service this season but because he finished second in ROTY he is rewarded with a full year of service. That is f***ing huge! Moves up his FA an entire season.

[Brownie19]

That contract was an absolute disaster day 1 and Heyward has been an extreme disappointment since he came up

 

I don't think he disappointed since he came up. 4.6 WAR as a 20 year old was fantastic. He had 25.2 WAR by age 25. Then it was all downhill.

[Ehjays]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/adley-rutschman-earns-full-service-year-with-rookie-of-the-year-runner-up.html

 

Interesting that the new rookie promotion rules matter in year 1

 

Seattle gets a bonus draft pick for having J Rod on their roster all year because he won ROTY.

 

Meanwhile Rutschman would not have received a full year of service this season but because he finished second in ROTY he is rewarded with a full year of service. That is f***ing huge! Moves up his FA an entire season.

 

[Ehjays]

I thought this was wild how close their stats were

 

[G-Snarls]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/adley-rutschman-earns-full-service-year-with-rookie-of-the-year-runner-up.html

 

Interesting that the new rookie promotion rules matter in year 1

 

Seattle gets a bonus draft pick for having J Rod on their roster all year because he won ROTY.

 

Meanwhile Rutschman would not have received a full year of service this season but because he finished second in ROTY he is rewarded with a full year of service. That is f***ing huge! Moves up his FA an entire season.

 

We need more things that f*** the Orioles

[Laika]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/yasiel-puig-pleads-guilty-to-lying-to-federal-investigators-in-gambling-case.html

[L54]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/yasiel-puig-pleads-guilty-to-lying-to-federal-investigators-in-gambling-case.html

 

Wow!

[L54]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/adley-rutschman-earns-full-service-year-with-rookie-of-the-year-runner-up.html

 

Interesting that the new rookie promotion rules matter in year 1

 

Seattle gets a bonus draft pick for having J Rod on their roster all year because he won ROTY.

 

Meanwhile Rutschman would not have received a full year of service this season but because he finished second in ROTY he is rewarded with a full year of service. That is f***ing huge! Moves up his FA an entire season.

 

Another wow! The Orioles should’ve just brought him up on day one if this is the case. Crazy not to actually

[Captain_Obvious]

Another wow! The Orioles should’ve just brought him up on day one if this is the case. Crazy not to actually

 

I do not understand how this rule incentivizes teams to promote good players between start of season and July. Had the Orioles waited a couple months, they would have had an extra year of Rutschman AND a higher draft pick. If I am a team with little to no hope of making the playoffs, I either start the year with my elite prospects or bring them up very late to avoid a top 2 ROTY situation.

[Spanky__99]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/yasiel-puig-pleads-guilty-to-lying-to-federal-investigators-in-gambling-case.html

 

That guy's an asshat.

[Laika]

I do not understand how this rule incentivizes teams to promote good players between start of season and July. Had the Orioles waited a couple months, they would have had an extra year of Rutschman AND a higher draft pick. If I am a team with little to no hope of making the playoffs, I either start the year with my elite prospects or bring them up very late to avoid a top 2 ROTY situation.

 

Well I guess...

 

Under the old system a team could hold a player down for 2 weeks and then control them for like 6.9 seasons. That's pretty perverse. The small amount of time you had to hold a player down meant even GOOD teams often held down ELITE prospects. Kind of gross!

Or they could hold them down for like 6-8 weeks to avoid them being a Super 2 player, then control them for like 6.6 seasons. Cheaper teams would do this.

 

Under the new system you should no longer see the GOOD teams hold down ELITE prospects because:

- there is a positive incentive for rostering your elite prospects from day 1, being the draft pick if they win awards

- there is a negative incentive for calling up your prospects a month or two into the year because if they win awards they get a full year of service time. Meaning you get the player for only ~5.8 seasons!

 

Now, to your point... when I first read these rules before 2022 my thought was also that it would chill early to mid season callups for elite prospects. My thought was that teams would want to avoid that "worst case scenario" at all costs so the elite prospects would either make the opening day roster or be held down until mid-summer when they no longer had any chance of winning awards. I thought this would create a scenario where elite prospects are controlled for 6 full seasons or maybe 6.5 seasons at the most. And a good chunk would be controlled for like 6.2 seasons, because if they have less than 60 days of service time in year 1 so they maintain rookie status they are eligible for that bonus pick in year 2 if they are on the opening day roster and win awards.

 

One of the weird things is that to be eligible for the award pick, the prospects need to be top 100 ranked. That's kind of f***ing stupid that ESPN, BA, and MLB Pipeline rankings all of a sudden matter for real baseball stuff. I hate that.

 

I think I need to change my opinion a bit. I think with so many moving parts to the scheme, teams will just handle this differently and uniquely.

 

1. teams like the Rays will try to min/max and you will see them call up their top prospects at efficient and ideal times

2. most teams will probably just focus on development while avoiding the big negative outcomes

 

Like the Pirates calling up Oneil Cruz in June this year. That gave him 110 service time days. He could not have realistically won any awards in 87 games so they were almost certain to not get screwed over. So they chose to control him for 6.5 years and just give him 87 big league games in 2022 in order to help him develop.

[L54]

Was Michael Harris a top 100 prospect? I’m assuming he was on lists but I don’t think he was very high

[Spanky__99]

Was Michael Harris a top 100 prospect? I’m assuming he was on lists but I don’t think he was very high

 

89 by MLB Pipeline, 37 Fangraphs, 46 by Baseball America...

 

Ranked Atlanta Braves #1 prospect in 2022

Track Record: Most of the scouting industry seemed to prefer Harris as a lefthanded pitcher out of Stockbridge (Ga.) in 2019. He touched 93 mph with his fastball and showed feel to spin a big curveball. Harris preferred hitting, though, and the Braves liked his upside enough as a position player to give him a chance with the bat. They drafted him in the third round as an outfielder and signed him for $547,500 to forgo a Texas Tech commitment. After flashing solid tools in his pro debut after signing, Harris impressed Braves officials in 2020 with quality at-bats against many of the team’s top pitching prospects at the alternate training site. He carried that into 2021 with a breakout season at High-A Rome, finishing among the Braves organization leaders in hits (110), doubles (26), RBIs (67), stolen bases (27) and earning a selection to the Futures Game.

 

Scouting Report: Harris has developed rapidly into the consensus best pure hitter in the Braves’ system. Officially listed by Major League Baseball as a switch-hitter, he took all his swings from the left side in 2021 and shows impressive feel to hit with loose wrists, easy hands and impressive plate coverage. Harris’ plate coverage is so good that he gives away at-bats at times by being overly aggressive and chasing balls he can’t drive, but he identifies pitches well. When he focused on eliminating his chases on the inner half during the second half of the season, his on-base percentage shot up to .400 over the final two months. Harris has plenty of strength in his filled-out frame and drops the bat head with force throughout the zone. He routinely produces exit velocities in the 110-114 mph range, and while he hit just seven home runs this year, he played his home games in one of the toughest offensive environments in minor league baseball. All of his seven home runs came on the road, and his home (.282/.361/.363) and road (.305/.363/.498) splits suggest above-average power potential his overall numbers might not indicate. Harris combines that power potential with plus speed and aggressive baserunning that make him a dangerous stolen base threat. In addition to his offensive prowess, Harris was voted the best defensive outfielder in High-A East by league managers. He draws praise for his instincts and ability in center field and could be an above-average or plus defender at the position if he maintains his plus speed. His thicker lower half and filled-out frame raise the possibility he will slow down in the future, but he should remain an above-average defender even if he has to eventually move to a corner outfield spot. His plus arm strength will play at any position.

 

The Future: With above-average or better tools across the board, Harris has a chance to be an impact, everyday big leaguer. He will move to Double-A Mississippi in 2022, where the Braves would like to see him continue to mature as a hitter. His defense gives him a shot to be a very well-rounded player.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Spanky99

[Laika]

Was Michael Harris a top 100 prospect? I’m assuming he was on lists but I don’t think he was very high

 

He was. ESPN left him off but the other two ranked him.

 

It's honestly so dumb.

[Stangstag]

He was. ESPN left him off but the other two ranked him.

 

It's honestly so dumb.

 

Does Atlanta get the draft pick for him then or not? I would have thought yes since he won ROY…

[BTS]

Harris was a massive miss for the stat scouts. I wouldn’t even have had him on my dynasty draft boards.

[Captain_Obvious]

Does Atlanta get the draft pick for him then or not? I would have thought yes since he won ROY…

 

Was he or Strider on opening day roster?

[Laika]

Does Atlanta get the draft pick for him then or not? I would have thought yes since he won ROY…

 

No the team is only rewarded if the player was on the opening day roster. Like Julio.

 

Actually, Atlanta would have been "punished" because Harris would have been awarded a full year of service time. But they extended him so that is moot.

Harris still gets a full year of service time but it only matters for his 10 & 5 rights, or whatever.

[Laika]

Welcome to the era where...

 

If a player needs some weeks/months in the minors teams DON'T WANT HIM to make any offseason prospect lists

lmao!

 

Teams will only want their MLB ready prospects to make prospect lists if they plan to call them up right out of spring. Otherwise their ranking is an annoyance!

 

Clear opportunities for bribery. "Hey Kiley, do you have Tim Tickle at the back end of your top 100? You do? That's kind of annoying... why don't we have lunch and talk about it ;)"

[Spanky__99]

Welcome to the era where...

 

If a player needs some weeks/months in the minors teams DON'T WANT HIM to make any offseason prospect lists

lmao!

 

Teams will only want their MLB ready prospects to make prospect lists if they plan to call them up right out of spring. Otherwise their ranking is an annoyance!

 

Clear opportunities for bribery. "Hey Kiley, do you have Tim Tickle at the back end of your top 100? You do? That's kind of annoying... why don't we have lunch and talk about it ;)"

 

lmao

[Stangstag]

Was he or Strider on opening day roster?

 

Strider was... then wouldn't they get the pick for him?? This s*** is confusing

[Laika]

Strider was... then wouldn't they get the pick for him?? This s*** is confusing

 

Strider was not a top 100 prospect! Somehow.

 

lmao it's so dumb

 

I truly cannot believe that "Jonathan Mayo likes him" is a thing with significance in the f***ing CBA

[Stangstag]

Strider was not a top 100 prospect! Somehow.

 

lmao it's so dumb

 

I truly cannot believe that "Jonathan Mayo likes him" is a thing with significance in the f***ing CBA

 

Yeah it’s ridiculous Braves have the 1-2 ROY guys and don’t get any draft pick compensation

[BCZ]

He's a catcher, man? Only 7 players had more innings than him... Derp!

 

Look at DRS and FRM numbers, it isn't close.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=350&type=1&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=4,d

 

I concede

[Spanky__99]

Strider was not a top 100 prospect! Somehow.

 

lmao it's so dumb

 

I truly cannot believe that "Jonathan Mayo likes him" is a thing with significance in the f***ing CBA

 

Is it really contingent on Pipeline? lol

[BCZ]

You guys showed me.