Around Baseball 2022

[Brownie19]

I don't think $12M for a back end starting pitcher is really considered a 'big contract'. It was clearly a high risk / high reward contract. So far, it looks like we're on the risk side of things.

[The Cats Ass]

Does Nolan Arenado opt out after this season? 5 years left at a 28.8 AAV. Currently leading the NL in WAR.

[metafour]

Nope, none of this.

 

If you ran an analysis for team efficiency when allocating free agent expenditures and free agent level extensions, I am just guessing that Toronto would be middle of the pack at best. Probably not a top 10 team in this regard.

 

It's fair to attribute that to bad luck if you want.

 

But there were valid criticisms for these contracts IN CONTEXT. They would be:

 

- Springer is an injury risk

- Ryu is an injury risk

- Kikuchi is just bad

- Berrios is bland / milquetoast and lacks upside on the contract

 

Of course Springer could beast later on and make his contract fine. Kikuchi could pay for his whole contract with one great season. Berrios is far from a lost cause.

 

Right, but there's always going to be "something" potentially wrong with almost any free agent you approach.

 

Ryu was old and injury prone, but he did still give two years of performance on a 4 year deal. This seemed like a very realistic outcome for him. Sure, you would have hoped to get that ~5 WAR season out of him.

 

Springer really wasn't that "injury prone". He played in 51 out of 60 games in 2020 (85%), 122 out of 162 games in 2019 (75%), 140 out of 162 games in 2018 (86%), 140 out of 162 games in 2017 (86%), and 162 out of 162 games in 2016 (100%). The risk there came from his age + defensive position. Of course, his very first year here he plays the least amount of games he's ever played. Year #2 has now also featured a lingering injury. That outcome was always there as a real possibility, but that's the reality with most free agents. It's been pretty bad luck with that signing so far.

 

I don't understand the Berrios one. He's "bland", but his AAV on his extension is only $18.7 million. He's a guy who had 3+ WAR in 3 of the 4 seasons prior to him signing that extension (the one outlier season was the shortened 2020 year). 2 of those seasons were 4+ WAR seasons. At ~$18.7 million, anything close to or over 3 WAR is surplus value on his contract. I don't think that anyone expected 28 year old Berrios to pitch at a 0.3 WAR season. It was still a good signing regardless of how bland he was because the guy is rarely if ever injured. He's just been terrible this season.

 

Age is an obvious risk-factor, but even that one isn't dependable. Look at Carlos Correa - 1.6 WAR season for the Twins and he's only 27. He has a $35 million AAV on his contract.

[AMS528]

I don't think $12M for a back end starting pitcher is really considered a 'big contract'. It was clearly a high risk / high reward contract. So far, it looks like we're on the risk side of things.

 

 

$12M on a one year deal for a back end starting pitcher would not be a big contract.

 

They gave him a three year deal though, and you don't give a three year deal unless you really believe there's at least a chance he's going to be something more than a back end pitcher. Cause there are lots of guys to sign if you just want someone to suck for a single season with some upside and that doesn't hurt as much. Three years was a bit much for a guy who's never shown the performance to match.

[Deadpool]

$12M on a one year deal for a back end starting pitcher would not be a big contract.

 

They gave him a three year deal though, and you don't give a three year deal unless you really believe there's at least a chance he's going to be something more than a back end pitcher. Cause there are lots of guys to sign if you just want someone to suck for a single season with some upside and that doesn't hurt as much. Three years was a bit much for a guy who's never shown the performance to match.

 

He clearly has the stuff to be more than a back-end starter, and perhaps with a full spring training to work with him in the pitching lab they could have unlocked more for this year. I'm not sure what it will take to fix him, but we've all seen those flashes where he looks basically unhitable. It's in there somewhere, and I'm assuming they banked on being able to unlock some more consistency there.

[CrackerJack]

Anybody else not really minding if the Jays miss the playoffs this year? haha

 

If they get in, it's unlikely they'll go on a magical run in October.

 

Imagine if the Orioles got a wild card instead of the Jays? Would Atkins be axed from the embarrassment of missing the playoffs in a year where there's an extra wild card spot ... and the Jays have been settled all season in Toronto ... and they've already scapegoated Charlie ... and after all of the "next level" and "this year you will see the movie" hype?

 

Not to mention, I'm sure they were really hoping for Blue Jays fever to be running wild so they can jack up ticket prices substantially to help pay for Rogers Centre renovations.

[The Cats Ass]

He clearly has the stuff to be more than a back-end starter, and perhaps with a full spring training to work with him in the pitching lab they could have unlocked more for this year. I'm not sure what it will take to fix him, but we've all seen those flashes where he looks basically unhitable. It's in there somewhere, and I'm assuming they banked on being able to unlock some more consistency there.

 

Maybe working with him over the offseason will help. There's an above average pitcher in there. Even since he's came back from the short minors visit, his 3 starts has been his 3 lowest average exit velocities this year.

[Laika]

He clearly has the stuff to be more than a back-end starter, and perhaps with a full spring training to work with him in the pitching lab they could have unlocked more for this year. I'm not sure what it will take to fix him, but we've all seen those flashes where he looks basically unhitable. It's in there somewhere, and I'm assuming they banked on being able to unlock some more consistency there.

 

Nah man. Not this season.

 

In 2022 Kikuchi's good flashes are just where he looks like a cromulent back end SP.

[AMS528]

He clearly has the stuff to be more than a back-end starter, and perhaps with a full spring training to work with him in the pitching lab they could have unlocked more for this year. I'm not sure what it will take to fix him, but we've all seen those flashes where he looks basically unhitable. It's in there somewhere, and I'm assuming they banked on being able to unlock some more consistency there.

 

There are tons of back end pitchers who have flashes were they don't look hittable as long as you're looking at their best games. Kikuchi isn't unique that way. If you look at say Trent Thornton's game logs in his rookie year, you have plenty of flashes of looking unhittable, but really doesn't mean much.

 

He's even further away than a lot of those back end guys who show flashes, since he has no idea where his fastball is heading a good amount of the time. He has to just get to being a consistent and ok fifth starter, before we're talking about unlocking anything.

[P2F]

Anybody else not really minding if the Jays miss the playoffs this year? haha

 

If they get in, it's unlikely they'll go on a magical run in October.

 

Imagine if the Orioles got a wild card instead of the Jays? Would Atkins be axed from the embarrassment of missing the playoffs in a year where there's an extra wild card spot ... and the Jays have been settled all season in Toronto ... and they've already scapegoated Charlie ... and after all of the "next level" and "this year you will see the movie" hype?

 

Not to mention, I'm sure they were really hoping for Blue Jays fever to be running wild so they can jack up ticket prices substantially to help pay for Rogers Centre renovations.

 

Nope, just you and gruber92

[The Cats Ass]

Yankees should be panicking. Since July 9th they are 10-18. That's good for a .357 win%. The Nationals are the only team with a win% lower than that for the year.

[glory]

I'm not sure what to make of their approach. The goal is to compete every year, and usually teams who operate like that are very risk averse - even the Dodgers are really careful about who they allocate big money to. But Toronto has made a number of high risk decisions:

 

- holding on to JD for 2018, largely for PR reasons and crossing their fingers that he'd maintain value at the deadline

- 80M for Ryu

- 150M for Springer

- trading for Berrios and then giving him 130M

 

They've been a lot more open to risk, at least on the financial side, than I think any of us expected 3-4 years ago. And I'm not sure Ross has been super great at allocating that capital.

 

Agreed. I generally like this FO but having a good plan and executing it well are two different things. I don't think anyone disagrees with "perennial contention", especially coming off 2015-16 which was both super exciting and frustratingly short, but building a roster that can win every year takes some level of risk aversion in free agency combined with being able to create a team friendly financial situation. To this point there have been no team friendly extensions given to core young talent, either out of choice or more likely out of circumstances (Vlad and Bo don't want to sign right now). Then the past two seasons have involved signing players in their 30's to long/big money contracts. The farm system is not in the best shape, and aside from Moreno, lacks upper minors talent both on the position player side and especially on the pitching side.

 

I feel like the next 3 years are probably it as far as this team's window because combining all of those things above together doesn't add up to 5-10 years of a competitive cycle. The Braves signed their stars to team friendly (or borderline exploitative) extensions, so now they have their financial situation locked up and can build around their existing talent. The Jays don't really have that. It's 3 expensive arb years for Vlad/Bo, and then who knows what after that.

 

Obviously, 3+ years is a long time. Maybe by 2025 there will another wave of young talent coming up and the Jays can seamlessly transition into that core without having to do a tear down for a few years. We will have to wait and see. I mean ultimately if the Jays end up making the WC this year (they should), and then have 3 more playoff appearances after that, then you could probably live with a small retool/rebuilding phase after that if there is a reasonable amount of success over that 4 year competitive window (certainly if there is a WS title out of it), but I'm a little skeptical of 2023-25 at this point. Atkins needs to do some things in the winter.

[G-Snarls]

Anybody else not really minding if the Jays miss the playoffs this year? haha

 

If they get in, it's unlikely they'll go on a magical run in October.

 

Imagine if the Orioles got a wild card instead of the Jays? Would Atkins be axed from the embarrassment of missing the playoffs in a year where there's an extra wild card spot ... and the Jays have been settled all season in Toronto ... and they've already scapegoated Charlie ... and after all of the "next level" and "this year you will see the movie" hype?

 

Not to mention, I'm sure they were really hoping for Blue Jays fever to be running wild so they can jack up ticket prices substantially to help pay for Rogers Centre renovations.

 

Hell no

 

I want to see them in the playoffs 100%

[G-Snarls]

I'm not really complaining about it.

 

I also don't think the Ryu contract was bad.

 

It's just a fact that Toronto is not getting optimal or great results from their free agent expenditures and free agent level extensions.

 

Yeah

 

All seemed like acceptable risks.

 

This year we're just not getting the results desired from those 3 (Ryu, Berrios, Springer)

 

OTOH Gausman has been good relative to contract and I'm hopeful that Springer and Berrios regress favorably

[wilko]

anybody else not really minding if the jays miss the playoffs this year? Haha

 

if they get in, it's unlikely they'll go on a magical run in october.

 

Imagine if the orioles got a wild card instead of the jays? Would atkins be axed from the embarrassment of missing the playoffs in a year where there's an extra wild card spot ... And the jays have been settled all season in toronto ... And they've already scapegoated charlie ... And after all of the "next level" and "this year you will see the movie" hype?

 

Not to mention, i'm sure they were really hoping for blue jays fever to be running wild so they can jack up ticket prices substantially to help pay for rogers centre renovations.

 

This is supposed to be the movie!

[Davie]

Giles dfa'd by the Mariners

 

Bring him home?

[Jonn]

Giles dfa'd by the Mariners

 

Bring him home?

 

Yes and give him an MLB deal and the most money to get it secured and done.

[CrackerJack]

This is supposed to be the movie!

 

Well if this is the movie, then maybe we'll get a helluva ending . . . game 162 in Baltimore with the winner grabbing the final wild card!

[Stangstag]

Well if this is the movie, then maybe we'll get a helluva ending . . . game 162 in Baltimore with the winner grabbing the final wild card!

 

I really don’t think it will be that close at all. Maybe homefield advantage/WC1 decided on the last day of the season. I don’t see Baltimore coming close to a wildcard spot when all is said and done

[CrackerJack]

I really don’t think it will be that close at all. Maybe homefield advantage/WC1 decided on the last day of the season. I don’t see Baltimore coming close to a wildcard spot when all is said and done

 

I'd like to see the Orioles still alive going into the final series with the Jays ... (for the story and the drama.)

 

But (yeah) the Mariners, Rays and Twins/Guardians are the more serious threats for a wild card.

[jaysblue]

I don't think $12M for a back end starting pitcher is really considered a 'big contract'. It was clearly a high risk / high reward contract. So far, it looks like we're on the risk side of things.

 

3 years at $12. If it was one year at $12-15M with a club option, fine. The money they spent on Kikuchi could have been used on the bullpen.

[jaysblue]

He clearly has the stuff to be more than a back-end starter, and perhaps with a full spring training to work with him in the pitching lab they could have unlocked more for this year. I'm not sure what it will take to fix him, but we've all seen those flashes where he looks basically unhitable. It's in there somewhere, and I'm assuming they banked on being able to unlock some more consistency there.

 

Love yours and Brownie19s optimism surrounding every player on the Blue Jays! You both love investing so much time on a 5th starter!

[jaysblue]

Holy stupid-leaving-out-half-the-narrative-Batman dumb s*** is this? I don't have a hard on for this current iteration of the Jays head office but this is just lazy.

 

The AA "World Series contender" team was all-in. It was Peaks and Valleys management. Go all in once a cycle... This team and organizational depth is CLEARLY a much different model. Atkins et al are obviously trying to establish depth AND a winning product. This is really obvious honestly.

 

Blue Jays were still a World Series contender in 2016 after AA left. They had a bad start to 2017 with some major injuries. As well, this current FO rather than trading Donaldson at his high point, wasted that opportunity. Plus giving some questionable players like Kendrys Morales multiple years, which was very mind boggling.

 

I'm not suggesting the Blue Jays go all in and trade every top prospect. They don't need to. They have a very strong core intact and all they need to do is spend some money in the offseason on some areas to improve the team such as the bullpen which is easer in the offseason than trading top prospects for guys at the deadline. If you're so concerned about the farm system, wouldn't you agree?

 

I just would hate seeing all this talent and roster go to waste because the Blue Jays were too cheap on adding a bullpen arm or two in the offseason. Like I said, I'm all for this team handing an elite reliever BJ Ryan money at this stage.

[jaysblue]

Nope, none of this.

 

If you ran an analysis for team efficiency when allocating free agent expenditures and free agent level extensions, I am just guessing that Toronto would be middle of the pack at best. Probably not a top 10 team in this regard.

 

It's fair to attribute that to bad luck if you want.

 

But there were valid criticisms for these contracts IN CONTEXT. They would be:

 

- Springer is an injury risk

- Ryu is an injury risk

- Kikuchi is just bad

- Berrios is bland / milquetoast and lacks upside on the contract

 

Of course Springer could beast later on and make his contract fine. Kikuchi could pay for his whole contract with one great season. Berrios is far from a lost cause.

 

I don't really have an issue with any of these contracts, other than maybe Kikuchi, and even that one doesn't bother me.

 

Springer was the top FA that offseason and the Blue Jays signing him showed the rest of the baseball they were serious. Also, showed other FAs that the Blue Jays were willing to spend and make significant improvements to the team. If he's healthy, he can be a 5-6 WAR player. That's why it's best the Blue Jays take advantage of putting together the best team possible during the earlier years of the Springer contract, because likely the latter years are when he'll be declining.

 

Same with the Ryu contract the offseason prior. He was one of the top SPs on the market. Also at the time they signed Ryu, Blue Jays pitching at the MLB level was pretty depleted. They pretty much just had Trent Thornton.

 

Berrios can be a solid No. 2 starter, proven to be durable and was under 30 when they traded and signed him to an extension. I think he's a better pitcher than his 2022 numbers indicate.

 

As for Kikuchi, I'm not a fan of the 3 years. I think signing him to a one-year contract + with a club option would have been a fine gamble. I don't know why they want to try turning him from a No. 5 starter into a No. 3 starter over three years. Just pay a couple extra more bucks for a No. 3 starter to slot in the No. 4 or 5 slots at this point given where the team is. Also, wasn't a fan of the Roark contract or the Morales contract as well. Don't understand again why they went multiple years on veterans over 30 and on the downturn in their careers, who likely would only get one-year contracts from the 29 other teams.

[John_Havok]

I don't really have an issue with any of these contracts, other than maybe Kikuchi, and even that one doesn't bother me.

 

Springer was the top FA that offseason and the Blue Jays signing him showed the rest of the baseball they were serious. Also, showed other FAs that the Blue Jays were willing to spend and make significant improvements to the team. If he's healthy, he can be a 5-6 WAR player. That's why it's best the Blue Jays take advantage of putting together the best team possible during the earlier years of the Springer contract, because likely the latter years are when he'll be declining.

 

Same with the Ryu contract the offseason prior. He was one of the top SPs on the market. Also at the time they signed Ryu, Blue Jays pitching at the MLB level was pretty depleted. They pretty much just had Trent Thornton.

 

Berrios can be a solid No. 2 starter, proven to be durable and was under 30 when they traded and signed him to an extension. I think he's a better pitcher than his 2022 numbers indicate.

 

As for Kikuchi, I'm not a fan of the 3 years. I think signing him to a one-year contract + with a club option would have been a fine gamble. I don't know why they want to try turning him from a No. 5 starter into a No. 3 starter over three years. Just pay a couple extra more bucks for a No. 3 starter to slot in the No. 4 or 5 slots at this point given where the team is. Also, wasn't a fan of the Roark contract or the Morales contract as well. Don't understand again why they went multiple years on veterans over 30 and on the downturn in their careers, who likely would only get one-year contracts from the 29 other teams.

 

The extra years are probably just the "playing in Canada" tax.

[Jonn]

The extra years are probably just the "playing in Canada" tax.

 

I feel the players should be playing a tax for getting to play in Canada. America has some real s*** hole cities that I would never consider living in even if I was making more money and paying less to live there.

 

Like in the Summer playing Toronto if not the best city to play and live in. It’s easily Top 3. San Diego and Arizona would probably be the only rival for me.

[Laika]

I feel the players should be playing a tax for getting to play in Canada. America has some real s*** hole cities that I would never consider living in even if I was making more money and paying less to live there.

 

Like in the Summer playing Toronto if not the best city to play and live in. It’s easily Top 3. San Diego and Arizona would probably be the only rival for me.

 

Arizona? I've never heard of that being a world class place to live. The weather is also not for everybody but I know ideal for certain people.

[Jayzfan79]

Oh boy.....

[RobinThicc]

Probably took something to speed up his recovery. Tough to see

[Angrioter]

BREAKING

 

San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. has violated Major League Baseball’s performance-enhancing drug policy.

 

Tatis Jr. will be facing a suspension, per @JeffPassan https://t.co/sGvhW60fNc