The Blue Jays extend José Berríos for 7 years and $131M

[TwistedLogic]

There were people that wanted to give Steven Matz a QO this year.

 

That 18.7M AAV means the Blue Jays basically just got Berrios to accept six QO's in a row.

[G-Snarls]

Very happy about this

[RobinThicc]

[TwistedLogic]

Opt-out clause after the 5th year and limited no-trade protection.

 

[Jimcanuck]

There were people that wanted to give Steven Matz a QO this year.

 

That 18.7M AAV means the Blue Jays basically just got Berrios to accept six QO's in a row.

 

They might end up wishing they had depending on how the rest of the offseason goes. A 1 year committment is different and priced differently than 7 years.

[Sammy225]

Can't quote it right now but you can look he does have an opt out after your five and a limited no trade clause

[L54]

They might end up wishing they had depending on how the rest of the offseason goes. A 1 year committment is different and priced differently than 7 years.

 

Nobody is going to wish they had paid Steven Matz 20M this year

 

Offering him a QO was never a good idea

[Jimcanuck]

Nobody is going to wish they had paid Steven Matz 20M this year

 

Offering him a QO was never a good idea

 

18.4 and we will see, depends on how the FA market shakes out

[BlueRocky]

Big Boy pants move

[Deadpool]

I still think Martin is going to be a super stud, but this plugs a big hole for a long term at a very reasonable price.

 

I am pleased.

[L54]

18.4 and we will see, depends on how the FA market shakes out

 

The caveat is you commit that up front, you don’t have the luxury of seeing how the market shakes out

 

What’s the upside?

 

The downside is that you tie your hands on other free agent deals to lock up a mediocre starter when there are ten other guys on the market just let him plus trade targets in CIN/OAK/MIA

 

It never made sense to give Matz a QO

[Jimcanuck]

The caveat is you commit that up front, you don’t have the luxury of seeing how the market shakes out

 

What’s the upside?

 

The downside is that you tie your hands on other free agent deals to lock up a mediocre starter when there are ten other guys on the market just let him plus trade targets in CIN/OAK/MIA

 

It never made sense to give Matz a QO

 

If Matz true market value on a one year deal is $15-16M, the $2-3M premium to lock down SP security early in the season in an uncertain FA market has very little impact on the ability to sign other players to multi year deals.

 

Eh, $21M for 1 year of Syndergaard who is probably going to struggle the first few months (like almost every TJS returnee).

[Brownie19]

Plus if he left for a multi-year deal, you get some compensation. This isn't a black or white situation, I'm sure there was a lot to evaluate before the Jays chose not to qualify him.

[Deadpool]

The caveat is you commit that up front, you don’t have the luxury of seeing how the market shakes out

 

What’s the upside?

 

The downside is that you tie your hands on other free agent deals to lock up a mediocre starter when there are ten other guys on the market just let him plus trade targets in CIN/OAK/MIA

 

It never made sense to give Matz a QO

 

IMO, the QO would have been leverage against a multi-year deal. Making it harder for other teams to sign him to give yourself an advantage.

 

I didn't want Matz for 1, $18.4, but I would take Matz on 4, ~$50-$60M

[L54]

IMO, the QO would have been leverage against a multi-year deal. Making it harder for other teams to sign him to give yourself an advantage.

 

I didn't want Matz for 1, $18.4, but I would take Matz on 4, ~$50-$60M

 

I believe he takes the QO if offered

[Ryu In My House]

He was the 18th most valuable pitcher in baseball last year and has been the 13th most valuable pitcher in baseball since 2018. Please do not refer to him as a #3 pitcher.

 

No kidding. He is in the #1 on more than half the MLB teams.

[L54]

Syndergaard 21M>>>Matz 18M

[Ryu In My House]

Big Boy pants move

 

Yep, for sure. For the first off-season move, this is really something. IMO.

[Jimcanuck]

Syndergaard 21M>>>Matz 18M

 

Big ???? actually

[Sammy225]

Does this open up Pearson to be a piece for jose ramirez. Or are we holding on to him

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Does this open up Pearson to be a piece for jose ramirez. Or are we holding on to him

 

Holding onto him....I think if traded now the Jays will be selling low. Yes, he does have injuries concerns but lets see how his groin operation has helped him.

[Spanky99]

Nobody is going to wish they had paid Steven Matz 20M this year

 

Offering him a QO was never a good idea

 

The caveat is you commit that up front, you don’t have the luxury of seeing how the market shakes out

 

What’s the upside?

 

The downside is that you tie your hands on other free agent deals to lock up a mediocre starter when there are ten other guys on the market just let him plus trade targets in CIN/OAK/MIA

 

It never made sense to give Matz a QO

 

It didn't, I never understood that people wanted to do that. Yikes.

[Brownie19]

I believe he takes the QO if offered

 

Syndergaard 21M>>>Matz 18M

 

I highly doubt the evaluation of whether to offer Matz a QO or not was as basic as you suggest and the Thor signing really doesn't impact that.

 

I suspect there was a very real discussion and evaluation on whether or not to offer Matz a QO. Matz is VERY likely to get a multi year deal in this market. We all expected Thor would get a 1 year pillow deal to rebuild value and we all know that Thor has way more upside than Matz (and it's Thor @ $21M + 2nd rounder in your comparison).

 

If Matz signs for 3 year $50M, or 4 years $60M or something like that, then there's probably an argument we should have offered him a QO so get the 2nd round compensation. If that's the market for him, then I don't think it's a guarantee he would have accepted the QO.

 

If guys like DeSclafani, Gray and Wood start signing 1 year $10M or 2 year $20M deals, then sure, offering Matz a QO would have been a bad idea - if they sign 1 year $16M or 2 years $30M, then a QO for Matz was probably perfectly fine (as there's value in securing someone and not missing out) but it's yet to be seen how this will all play out. I trust this FO has done their due diligence and determined the market won't be hot enough this year to justify the risk/reward of a QO to Matz. That's good news for the Jays who look to be big players as they push to become elite.

 

Now I'm almost certain that when Matz signs, you'll come back and say "see - I told you guys the QO for Matz was stupid - why would anyone suggest it was worth evaluating" - which just means the FO read the market correctly and made the right choice. It doesn't mean the evaluation wasn't worthwhile and necessary. I'd say there's probably a 25% chance the FO is wrong (if I were to guess).

Edited November 16, 2021 by Brownie19

[Spanky99]

So anyone still upset with the trade? lol

 

[Spanky99]

I high doubt the evaluation of whether to offer Matz a QO or not was as basic as you suggest and the Thor signing really doesn't impact that.

 

I suspect there was a very real discussion and evaluation on whether or not to offer Matz a QO. Matz is VERY likely to get a multi year deal in this market. We all expected Thor would get a 1 year pillow deal to rebuild value and we all know that Thor has way more upside than Matz (and it's Thor @ $21M + 2nd rounder in your comparison).

 

If Matz signs for 3 year $50M, or 4 years $60M or something like that, then there's probably an argument we should have offered him a QO so get the 2nd round compensation. If that's the market for him, then I don't think it's a guarantee he would have accepted the QO.

 

If guys like DeSclafani, Gray and Wood start signing 1 year $10M or 2 year $20M deals, then sure, offering Matz a QO would have been a bad idea - if they sign 1 year $16M or 2 years $30M, then a QO for Matz was probably perfectly fine (as there's value in securing someone and not missing out) but it's yet to be seen how this will all play out. I trust this FO has done their due diligence and determined the market won't be hot enough this year to justify the risk/reward of a QO to Matz. That's good news for the Jays who look to be big players as they push to become elite.

 

Now I'm almost certain that when Matz signs, you'll come back and say "see - I told you guys the QO for Matz was stupid - why would anyone suggest it was worth evaluating" - which just means the FO read the market correctly and made the right choice. It doesn't mean the evaluation wasn't worthwhile and necessary. I'd say there's probably a 25% chance the FO is wrong (if I were to guess).

 

If... if... if...

 

Atkins and Co. all broke that down. He wasn't worth it when it came to that decision. Simple.

[Ray]

27 year old RHP

3.66 ERA last 3 seasons with elite walk and strikeout rates

Good velocity and spin numbers

Arguably the best curveball in the majors.

 

If you took the above properties into account blindly and were to project a contract extension for that caliber of pitcher, chances are it would land at significantly more than $131M.

 

What a great deal of business here by the front office. I knew they had to have some sort of inside track on this extension when they gave up Martin and Woods-Richardson. Berrios also just finished his age 27 season and pitchers have a tendency to blossom in their late 20’s/early 30’s. You give him a full offseason with our coaching and strength and conditioning staff, and I’m sure he’ll mature into a bona fide #1.

[Spanky99]

This should make it even easier to lock up Rodon.

 

To a year contract?

[Virgil_Hiltz]

27 year old RHP

3.66 ERA last 3 seasons with elite walk and strikeout rates

Good velocity and spin numbers

Arguably the best curveball in the majors.

 

If you took the above properties into account blindly and were to project a contract extension for that caliber of pitcher, chances are it would land at significantly more than $131M.

 

What a great deal of business here by the front office. I knew they had to have some sort of inside track on this extension when they gave up Martin and Woods-Richardson. Berrios also just finished his age 27 season and pitchers have a tendency to blossom in their late 20’s/early 30’s. You give him a full offseason with our coaching and strength and conditioning staff, and I’m sure he’ll mature into a bona fide #1.

I think Berrios could have gotten more $ with same term from others but this dispels some of the myths players are just mercenaries. I suspect Berrios looked at that 140 mil figure and thought "yeah, I can live with that being on what looks like a solid contender"! Wonder if he talked with Marcus and Robbie about what their plans are looking like?

[Krylian]

So two more elite starters?

 

Someone to replace Ray (or Ray himself), and a surprise addition.

 

A lot to ask, but that would be awesome

[BigCecil]

So anyone still upset with the trade? lol

 

 

It wasn't so much upset with trade for me at least (its kind of funny to reread the initial reactions to the deal ITT). Just seemed a bit inconsistent with drumbeat of building system to field consistent winner anchored from within. In retrospect lots of criticisms of the 2 who went now, but they were highly touted by the same FO. Seems like this FO is doing their best to balance strategic external signings while farming internal resources to bring up. Given our payroll probably a wise approach. A lot of the concern at the time was that he couldn't be resigned....and...well....thats no longer an issue.