The Jays can only afford 8-10 more losses in 2021 | Basic schedule analysis update

[Scion]

For those who are smarter than me, what do you think the magic number is to get into the 2nd wild card this year? 90? 91? 92?

[z3r0s]

I just feel like the key to the Jays making the playoffs will be winning 3 or more games more than 3 of Boston, NYY, Oakland and Seattle. If we can do that I would say we are a playoff team.

 

That's analysis is why you get paid the big bucks Hurlo

[John_Havok]

I just feel like the key to the Jays making the playoffs will be winning 3 or more games more than 3 of Boston, NYY, Oakland and Seattle. If we can do that I would say we are a playoff team.

 

In other deep analysis news, if we score more runs that our opponents, we will win each game.

[Krylian]

In other deep analysis news, if we score more runs that our opponents, we will win each game.

 

Source?

[TwistedLogic]

One loss burned.

 

15-7.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

[Krylian]

The only thing missing from this countdown is like what they did in Major League with that cutout of the slut owner they'd peel a piece of clothing from after every win.

 

Should have something like that with Hazel Mae.

[Jonn]

The only thing missing from this countdown is like what they did in Major League with that cutout of the slut owner they'd peel a piece of clothing from after every win.

 

Should have something like that with Hazel Mae.

 

Can we aim a little higher. I know she doesn’t work for Sportsnet anymore but I volunteer Caroline Szwed as tribute.

[Krylian]

Can we aim a little higher. I know she doesn’t work for Sportsnet anymore but I volunteer Caroline Szwed as tribute.

 

I was just picking a female who's most tied to the Blue Jays for authenticity... But your point is well taken

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

 

10 wins down.

 

13-7.

[Krylian]

13-7 sounds like a very reasonable ask. Still have to play very well for the next 3 weeks, but they don't have to basically be perfect.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

 

10 wins down.

 

13-7.

 

11 wins down.

 

12-7.

[Jonn]

11 wins down.

 

12-7.

 

All of a sudden this number sounds reasonable as f*** lol.

[Stangstag]

This may be the greatest thread of all time

[Dick_Pole]

To hit 92-70:

 

Jays 12-7 .632

Red Sox 11-6 .647

Yankees 13-6 .684

A's 15-4 .789

M's 15-4 .789

 

These are the games left between these teams:

A's/M's - 7 games

BOS/NYY - 3 games

Bos/M's - 3 games

 

If you assume every team splits those games:

 

Red Sox 3-3

Yankees 1.5-1.5

A's 3.5-3.5

Mariners 5-5

 

Subtract that out from the records needed to get to 92 wins and you get these records in the remaining games:

 

Red Sox 8-3 .727

Yankees 11.5-4.5 .719

A's 11.5-0.5 .958

M's N/A

 

A very good chance that 92-70 is playing for WC1 now as all four of these teams have an uphill battle just to make it to that record. The Jays aren't competing with four teams. They are competing with two. We just don't know which two yet. But scoreboard watching on all four is more fun.

[G-Snarls]

If Jays get home advantage as WC1 how many tickets will they be allowed to sell??

[Stangstag]

If Jays get home advantage as WC1 how many tickets will they be allowed to sell??

 

Depends who wins the election.

 

Jk. Im hoping that since vaccination proof will soon be required to enter the stadium, they’ll be allowed to have higher capacity. 30k would be nice.

[wilko]

If Jays get home advantage as WC1 how many tickets will they be allowed to sell??

 

Yes.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

 

Nine wins down.

 

14-7.

 

10 wins down.

 

13-7.

 

11 wins down.

 

12-7.

 

12 wins down.

 

11-7.

[glory]

If Jays get home advantage as WC1 how many tickets will they be allowed to sell??

 

I'm curious about this as well. The visual of a playoff game having 15k in attendance is really bad, even though Jays fans are loud and rowdy regardless. Even 50% capacity would be a letdown. I guess it's a bridge to cross if/when it actually happens, but I hope they make some type of exception for a home WC game.

[Krylian]

I doubt it changes. Covid numbers are slowly rising. They won't budge from 15k

[rydermike]

Forget about 11-7....Let's go 18-0 and win the AL East. :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

 

 

I mean, I am joking, but then again the Jays are 12-1 and this thread began and were 4.5 games out of the wild card. I never would've predicted we'd go 12-1, so why not lol

[204BJs]

This thread is going to age so nicely. Keep it going boys

[Dr. Dinger]

This thread is going to age so nicely. Keep it going boys

 

This thread aging like Jennifer Lopez.

[RustyTrombone]

This thread aging like Jennifer Lopez.

 

Getting pumped full of silicone and botox?

[WryNGinger]

I am personally willing to sacrifice several thousand un-vaccinated people for the cause of a better fan experience. Fill the house.

[Boxcar]

I am personally willing to sacrifice several thousand un-vaccinated people for the cause of a better fan experience. Fill the house.

 

You seem like a nice person

[Grant77]

I'm curious about this as well. The visual of a playoff game having 15k in attendance is really bad, even though Jays fans are loud and rowdy regardless. Even 50% capacity would be a letdown. I guess it's a bridge to cross if/when it actually happens, but I hope they make some type of exception for a home WC game.

 

The only certainly is that I will be in the crowd and it's going to be incredibly loud.

[harvey16]

In order for the Jays to catch Tampa, we need to go 15-3 the rest of the way and take 5 of 6 from the Rays.

 

Sweep current series vs Rays

Sweep Twins

Take 2 of 3 @ Rays

Take 3 of 4 @ Twins

Take 2 of 3 vs Yanks

Sweep Baltimore

 

I honestly don't think this is that far fetched. That would give us 96 wins. Tampa also finishes with 2 tough series on the road in Houston and New York.

[KevinGregg]

Forget about 11-7....Let's go 18-0 and win the AL East. :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

 

 

I mean, I am joking, but then again the Jays are 12-1 and this thread began and were 4.5 games out of the wild card. I never would've predicted we'd go 12-1, so why not lol

 

Sweep the 5 remaining games against the rays and we have 13 games to make up the remaining 3 GB of the division, that sounds pretty reasonable if we can just sweep the rays!!