The Jays can only afford 8-10 more losses in 2021 | Basic schedule analysis update

[InvincibleTiger]

26 games left.

 

So 19-7**

[Laika]

Visual strength of schedule using my arbitrary opponent quality bins.

I chose not to include Seattle.

I also could not bring myself to call Seattle a hard opponent but it seemed dishonest to just call them average so they get a special colour.

Did not colour the matchups between these teams because we know those will be critical. Was mostly interested in the strength of schedule outside of those matchups between competitors.

 

Takeaways:

 

- Oakland has a tough grind towards the end and not a lot of easy matchups overall, especially if Seattle stays in it and has something to play for mathematically to the bitter end.

- Yankees kind of have an easy road; TB will probably be locked into winning the division and playing reserves in the final series. Makes it even more crucial to take the majority of the games against them.

- Toronto has the most easy opponents, but also has TB six times. Got to take care of business against the trash teams and then not lose ground during those TB series.

- All eyes will be on New York and their 9 games with Toronto and Boston. Those three series have a good chance of deciding the wild card teams.

 

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

[Spanky99]

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

I love this!!!

[Spanky99]

Luis Gil tomorrow, hasn't given up an ER yet this season... suxxx for you kid.

 

*pronounced heel*

[InvincibleTiger]

Luis Gil tomorrow, hasn't given up an ER yet this season... suxxx for you kid.

 

*pronounced heel*

 

Who is pitching in the finale for the Yankees? Montgomery?

[Spanky99]

Who is pitching in the finale for the Yankees? Montgomery?

 

Yes.

[John_Havok]

Who is pitching in the finale for the Yankees? Montgomery?

 

Likely yes

[Grant77]

Tied for a playoff spot in the loss column. I love it.

[HealthDream007]

Keep it going guys. Take down the damn Yankees! Also, the Sox are tied with you guys in the loss column so you have fate in your own hands.

[Eat My Shatkins]

A week and a half ago the Jays were 9.5 games behind the Yankees, now they're 2.5 games back.

 

Wow.

[max silver]

A week and a half ago the Jays were 9.5 games behind the Yankees, now they're 2.5 games back.

 

Wow.

 

Holy s*** that's crazy. It's time to really go for the jugular and sweep the Yankees in their home ballpark. This is the game of the 4 which I thought would be the hardest to win, but with this out of the way it's time to go for broke.

[THANOS]

Holy s*** that's crazy. It's time to really go for the jugular and sweep the Yankees in their home ballpark. This is the game of the 4 which I thought would be the hardest to win, but with this out of the way it's time to go for broke.

 

Fingers crossed we get good Manoah!

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

[Scion]

If the Yankees and Athletics keep struggling maybe the second wc spot isn't 90 wins.

[InsideThePark]

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Once we reach 24 wins are you going to continue into the negatives? Seems to be working, you couldn't risk changing it

[G-Snarls]

Unbelievable change in tone from page 1 of this thread to now

 

Loving this run. Did NOT see it coming.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I still can believe where the Jays are now.

 

9.5 games back of the Yankees 11 days ago.

 

1.5 games back now.

[keggy]

I still can believe where the Jays are now.

 

9.5 games back of the Yankees 11 days ago.

 

1.5 games back now.

 

We should've traded Ray and Semien to build up depth for our 2024 wildcard run. Now all we get is compensation picks. This front office just doesn't get it.

[Buster]

We should've traded Ray and Semien to build up depth for our 2024 wildcard run. Now all we get is compensation picks. This front office just doesn't get it.

 

That was my position. I am VERY glad to have been wrong.

[Grant77]

The White Sox are lining up Rodon, Cease, and Lynn against Boston, so they should be heavy favourites to take the series. That's a good opportunity for us to pass them for good.

[Stangstag]

The White Sox are lining up Rodon, Cease, and Lynn against Boston, so they should be heavy favourites to take the series. That's a good opportunity for us to pass them for good.

 

Hell yeah, big series. Also our remaining games against Tampa will be key

[Sammy225]

Hell yeah, big series. Also our remaining games against Tampa will be key

 

I think we HAVE to go 3-3 against them would be nice to have a winning record but f*** have they been good. Just have to take care of business with the s***** teams.

[Dr. Dinger]

Is this thread the ultimate reverse jinx?

[connorp]

Is this thread the ultimate reverse jinx?

 

You picked the crap game to go to

[Dr. Dinger]

You picked the crap game to go to

 

Holy f*** was that ever a long game… 4 hours then I had to take the subway all the way from Bronx to 1st st. But it was worth it to watch that Vladdy rope off of Chapman and boo that piece of s*** Odor.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

 

Two wins down.

 

21-8.

Three wins down.

 

20-8.

Four wins down.

 

19-8.

 

Five wins down.

 

18-8.

 

Six wins down.

 

17-8.

 

Seven wins down.

 

16-8.

 

Eight wins down.

 

15-8.

[Dick_Pole]

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Jays are up to 52%, Yankees down to 58%. A Mets sweep would work well right about now.

[Laika]

Fangraphs has the A's odds at just 10.9%. M's at just 5.5%.

 

Sort of interesting that Boston's odds aren't just right there in the 50s or 60s with Toronto and Boston. Yeah they are 1 and 1.5 games up but Toronto is a better team.

 

I guess you could say that Boston IS probably better than the Yankees.

 

Toronto has FOURTEEN games left against the Orioles (45 wins) and Twins (62 wins). I guess the Twins could be an annoying team, they still have some talent; 6 or 7 good to decent hitters and a few spoilery arms like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.

[TheHurl]

I just feel like the key to the Jays making the playoffs will be winning 3 or more games more than 3 of Boston, NYY, Oakland and Seattle. If we can do that I would say we are a playoff team.