The Cardinals to acquire Nolan Arenado from the Rockies

[Spanky99]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cardinals-acquire-nolan-arenado-in-blockbuster-trade/

[Grant77]

This. Shapiro was talking about flexibility just the other day.

 

He also called next year one of the best free agent classes in history, so I would think that they expect to make more additions.

[THANOS]

This is a very unique and completely different situation IMO. Unloading a massive deal like Arenado's in a year when like 5 teams are spending (and most of those teams have already spent their wad) and the player can control which team he goes to (or doesn't want to go to) is a lot different than unloading your top pitcher who's still in his arbitration years.

 

I agree with everything you said. I'm mostly pointing to the ineptitude of their FO. Even will all those hindrances on the return, this deal is still generally looked at as a poor return for Colorado.

 

Logic would dictate you may be able to pry good assets from that FO for returns smaller than other competent FOs would receive.

[DigitalRock]

As has been pointed out, he likely doesn't waive his NTC for Toronto.

 

I hate the entire concept of a no trade clause, these athletes are so spoiled.

[JFD]

The Cubs should just give up and give us Hendricks now

[G-Snarls]

The Cubs should just give up and give us Hendricks now

 

Exactly that I was thinking

 

Or the Reds could do something similar

[TwistedLogic]

lmao

[Krylian]

I hate the entire concept of a no trade clause, these athletes are so spoiled.

 

The teams don't have to give it to them

[Laika]

Still waiting on the full details here eh.

 

There has to be more complexity to it than has been reported. I just cannot accept, until it is confirmed, that the Rockies are just throwing $50M away with Arenado.

[G-Snarls]

The teams don't have to give it to them

 

Especially in a situation like this where you're giving a massive contract extension to a player already under control

 

A full no trade cause and crippling opt outs? Why??

Edited January 31, 2021 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

Still waiting on the full details here eh.

 

There has to be more complexity to it than has been reported. I just cannot accept, until it is confirmed, that the Rockies are just throwing $50M away with Arenado.

 

It's so egregiously bad I actually hope it's not as simple as that

 

Refused to trade him in division to the Dodgers even though they were supposedly offering a better return. Why the f*** not? You're not competitive with the Dodgers any time soon with or without Arenado

[G-Snarls]

These opt outs are crippling

 

I'll bet all teams learn from this and they become less popular

[connorp]

I hate the entire concept of a no trade clause, these athletes are so spoiled.

 

Yeah man. Agreed. Imagine having a one-in-a-million talent and trying to maximize your earnings. And just imagine having the nuts to tell your employer you’re only coming on board if they don’t have the option of sending you packing to other the other side of the country on a whims notice

[G-Snarls]

Yeah man. Agreed. Imagine having a one-in-a-million talent and trying to maximize your earnings. And just imagine having the nuts to tell your employer you’re only coming on board if they don’t have the option of sending you packing to other the other side of the country on a whims notice

 

Yeai have a way bigger problem with the opt outs than with the concept of a no trade clause

[connorp]

Yeai have a way bigger problem with the opt outs than with the concept of a no trade clause

 

Nothing about professional athletes irk me. Instagram Influencers and the like get under my skin a bit but I accept that society is to blame

[jerb]

 

Mark Feinsand

@Feinsand

 

In the final deal, the Rockies will send $51 million to the Cardinals to pay down Arenado’s salary, per source. The majority of that will be due after Arenado’s two opt-out clauses have passed -- assuming he hasn’t opted out of his contract.

[Spanky99]

lol... just terrible return.

[Jays24]

I'm surprised we haven't benefited from teams trying to offload salary like how we got Lirano + Reese + someone else who i can't remember.

[G-Snarls]

I'm surprised we haven't benefited from teams trying to offload salary like how we got Lirano + Reese + someone else who i can't remember.

 

I still want to help the Cubs unload salary

[Jays24]

I still want to help the Cubs unload salary

 

Such a humanitarian you are lol

[Terminator]

Just got caught up on the Rockies press conference. Monfort is so full of s*** lol. He said the motivation for the trade was that they were worried that Arenado would opt out at the end of the year and they would get nothing in return. But this trade is worse than nothing in return as they got a bunch of slop and had to pay $50M bucks for it.

 

The truth is that they wanted him to opt out to save money but didn't think he would. So they did a ham-fisted salary dump and added a bunch of non-prospects that they can try and dress up to spin this trade as an actual baseball move. "We aren't cheap! We paid 50 mil to get these young studs with great futures!" It's pathetic and the Monforts are cementing themselves as the worst owners in North American sports. Sad!

[Laika]

Just got caught up on the Rockies press conference. Monfort is so full of s*** lol. He said the motivation for the trade was that they were worried that Arenado would opt out at the end of the year and they would get nothing in return. But this trade is worse than nothing in return as they got a bunch of slop and had to pay $50M bucks for it.

 

The truth is that they wanted him to opt out to save money but didn't think he would. So they did a ham-fisted salary dump and added a bunch of non-prospects that they can try and dress up to spin this trade as an actual baseball move. "We aren't cheap! We paid 50 mil to get these young studs with great futures!" It's pathetic and the Monforts are cementing themselves as the worst owners in North American sports. Sad!

 

It's a hard trade to analyze because of the opt out.

 

It might a horrible trade. It might be fine.

 

My assumption was that Colorado might pay down some portion of Arenado's 2021 salary but the majority of the $51M would only become applicable if he does not opt out. But no! Morosi said:

 

Jon Morosi

@jonmorosi

Source: The #Rockies are paying Nolan Arenado's $35 million salary this season; $15 million is owed to the Cardinals in this calendar year, with the remaining $20 million deferred.

 

Which really makes it seem like the "$20 million deferred" is already locked in and guaranteed.

 

So in Scenario A where Arenado opts out, the Cardinals are giving up Gomber and the "prospects" and will have to pay Arenado $20M in 2021, but the Rockies at some point will reimburse them for the $20M. So it's like Gomber + the "prospects" for one year of Arenado that really only costs a couple million bucks, or whatever it costs to pay that $20M up front considering the time value of money blah blah. In Scenario A the Cardinals make out like absolute bandits because they get a 4 WAR player for not much more than Gomber and some s*** prospects. Arenado at a cost of say $2M is probably worth like $30M in surplus value and I doubt Gomber and Montero etc. combined are worth more than $10M.

 

Scenario B is where Arenado does not opt out. The Cardinals then pay him $214M through 2027, less the $51M from Colorado, so 7/$163M. He's 1.5 years younger than George Springer and projects to be slightly worse in 2021 by both Steamer and ZiPS....

 

.... Scenario B actually does strike me as a negative value scenario. I think Arenado has less than no projected surplus value on that contract and it has albatross risk. Gomber and the prospects aren't a big package to give up but they also make it a bit worse. People can say that he would absolutely get 7/$163 with the signing team sacrificing a high draft pick on the open market, and they might be right, but that doesn't make it a positive contract.

 

So the whole thing swings on whether or not he opts out. How do you straddle that risk? The negotiations must have been fascinating.

 

If he opts out after 2021 he will be opting out of 6/$179M. Pretty huge risk. Doubt he does that but he might if he has a career year. Is he capable of a 7+ WAR season?

 

If he opts out after 2022 it will be 5/$144. Again a huge risk. Again I doubt he opts out, but I think it's a but more likely for him to opt out after 2022 than after 2021.

 

The CBA will also be expiring before 2022 so that has to be considered somehow.

 

It's hilarious but St. Louis is likely hoping he is so amazing in 2021 and or 2022 that he just opts out and f***s off.

[wilko]

Just got caught up on the Rockies press conference. Monfort is so full of s*** lol. He said the motivation for the trade was that they were worried that Arenado would opt out at the end of the year and they would get nothing in return. But this trade is worse than nothing in return as they got a bunch of slop and had to pay $50M bucks for it.

 

The truth is that they wanted him to opt out to save money but didn't think he would. So they did a ham-fisted salary dump and added a bunch of non-prospects that they can try and dress up to spin this trade as an actual baseball move. "We aren't cheap! We paid 50 mil to get these young studs with great futures!" It's pathetic and the Monforts are cementing themselves as the worst owners in North American sports. Sad!

 

 

The Rockies should clean house and move to Montreal. They are a joke of a team.