Marcus Semien to the Jays

[jerb]

 

Kaitlyn McGrath

@kaitlyncmcgrath

 

Marcus Semien said the #BlueJays were one of the first teams to call him and express their interest in signing him. Talks ramped up in late January. As for whether a return to Oakland was on the table, he said “We called them. I’ll leave it at that…"

 

Kaitlyn McGrath

@kaitlyncmcgrath

 

Semien said he’s excited to join a young, exciting group of players in Toronto. The FO expressed interest in Semien being in a sort of clubhouse leader role, which is a role he is happy to do.

 

Kaitlyn McGrath

@kaitlyncmcgrath

 

As for the position change, Semien said the #BlueJays asked him and he picked second base, if shortstop was unavailable. Mentioned he preferred staying up the middle.

[Brownie19]

Dammit... 2nd base confirmed lol

 

you need to let this one go. The FO knows what they are doing.

[Spanky99]

you need to let this one go. The FO knows what they are doing.

 

Yeah, he's on Tim and Sid right now, signed here because of the MIF factor, he believes his position is still SS moving forward, but couldn't help but keep coming back to our talent.

[Stangstag]

Projections. Steamers has Vlad projected as the 9th best hitter in baseball this year. History suggests batters who were 15% above league average at the age of 21 become beasts at the plate.

 

Will Vlad? I don't know - projections obviously aren't always right. But that's why you'll see many pencil him into the cleanup spot (for the next 10 years I hope).

 

I don’t understand how Vlad continues to have high/unrealistic projections after failing to come close to his projections the for the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile Gurriel has been solid the past couple seasons and the projections don’t like him at all. Also the projections don’t believe in Teoscar’s monster 2020.

[Spanky99]

I don’t understand how Vlad continues to have high/unrealistic projections after failing to come close to his projections the for the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile Gurriel has been solid the past couple seasons and the projections don’t like him at all. Also the projections don’t believe in Teoscar’s monster 2020.

 

Because he's a kid, not hard bro. Most guys his age are in AA hoping for a shot at the MLB. He hasn't been terrible and continues to improve.

[Orgfiller]

I don’t understand how Vlad continues to have high/unrealistic projections after failing to come close to his projections the for the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile Gurriel has been solid the past couple seasons and the projections don’t like him at all. Also the projections don’t believe in Teoscar’s monster 2020.

 

Dude, Vlad hasn't even turned 22. His first two seasons have been at ages 20 and 21, following a complete and utter annihilation of the minor leagues at the ages that. Throughout the entirety of his career, most "good" prospects would either still be in college or high school, or getting what might be considered an aggressive promotion to A+/AA. He projects highly because the kind of guys that are above average hitters at 20 and 21 with good K and BB rates and decent power tend to go on to be exceptional hitters. This is not to mention that what he did in the minors and at the age that he did it is basically a Hall of Fame level talent.

 

For as much as the projections don't like Teoscar as much as we might, what do you expect? The entirety of his breakout came in a 50 game sample with an elevated BABIP and worse BB rate. 2020 was a small sample size, guys put up a great 2-3 months all the time and then go back to being their usual self. I hope Teoscar builds on his offensive breakout, but the truth is the most likely scenario is he's exactly who he's been his whole career, maybe a slight upgrade on that.

[Orgfiller]

Because he's a kid, not hard bro. Most guys his age are in AA hoping for a shot at the MLB. He hasn't been terrible and continues to improve.

 

When Bo was Vlad's age while the latter has been in the MLB, the former was putting up decent-not-great numbers in AA and AAA with a 50 game cup of coffee in the MLB.

[Spanky99]

When Bo was Vlad's age while the latter has been in the MLB, the former was putting up decent-not-great numbers in AA and AAA with a 50 game cup of coffee in the MLB.

 

Exactly, I feel like this is "THE" year for Vladito.

[Angrioter]

Vladdy pegará muchos roletazos en la tierra entre la tercera base y el campocorto haciendo que los jardineros lo odien.

 

Wajajajajja

 

Muy bien español. Maldito Vladimir Junior

[Carlos Danger]

I don’t understand how Vlad continues to have high/unrealistic projections after failing to come close to his projections the for the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile Gurriel has been solid the past couple seasons and the projections don’t like him at all. Also the projections don’t believe in Teoscar’s monster 2020.

 

I am probably one of the only ones here in your camp.

 

I think the issue was is his peers.. Acuna, Soto, Tatis were in the same boat and they didn't really skip a beat.. Then there is the weight thing.. and those guys being plus D or solid D at their positions... I thought Vlad's path would be like Miguel Caberra... But Miggy stayed at 3b longer and started out in fire and continued...

 

I think Vlad will come around, but just seems to be at a more normal rate for guys his age vs some others with same hype... I am also not going to lie and say the weight issue at such a young age doesn't concern me, because yea, you can Crossfitt the s*** out of it at 19,20, 21, but as you get older it ain't going to be any easier for him..

[Jays24]

you need to let this one go. The FO knows what they are doing.

 

Agreed I'm beating a dead horse so I'll stop until the games begin.

[Spanky99]

I am probably one of the only ones here in your camp.

 

I think the issue was is his peers.. Acuna, Soto, Tatis were in the same boat and they didn't really skip a beat.. Then there is the weight thing.. and those guys being plus D or solid D at their positions... I thought Vlad's path would be like Miguel Caberra... But Miggy stayed at 3b longer and started out in fire and continued...

 

I think Vlad will come around, but just seems to be at a more normal rate for guys his age vs some others with same hype... I am also not going to lie and say the weight issue at such a young age doesn't concern me, because yea, you can Crossfitt the s*** out of it at 19,20, 21, but as you get older it ain't going to be any easier for him..

 

Cringe... Vlad's coming is his bat and only his bat... 70 hit tool with 70 in game power, period. You guys need to relax. Let him adjust, he'll be basically going into his second full season now. He hasn't turned 22 yet, damn.

[Jimcanuck]

Statistical projection systems do a better job than one person's opinion.

 

The fact Vlad hasn't met fan expectations is the sole reason fans are down on him. If he didn't destroy MiLB baseball, y'all would be downright giddy about what he might do in 2021.

[Carlos Danger]

Statistical projection systems do a better job than one person's opinion.

 

The fact Vlad hasn't met fan expectations is the sole reason fans are down on him. If he didn't destroy MiLB baseball, y'all would be downright giddy about what he might do in 2021.

 

That is basically exactly what I said.. His peers set a bar and everyone thought he would reach that bar or surpass. He is progressing as a normal kid his age/ages.. but if you compare to Acuna, Soto, Tatis etc, no...

[Jimcanuck]

That is basically exactly what I said.. His peers set a bar and everyone thought he would reach that bar or surpass. He is progressing as a normal kid his age/ages.. but if you compare to Acuna, Soto, Tatis etc, no...

 

Hey if Vlad takes it to another level this year and is talked about in the same breath as 3 of the top 5 players in the game, hallelujah!

[Orgfiller]

That is basically exactly what I said.. His peers set a bar and everyone thought he would reach that bar or surpass. He is progressing as a normal kid his age/ages.. but if you compare to Acuna, Soto, Tatis etc, no...

 

A normal kid his age isn't an above average major league hitter lol.

[max silver]

Dude, Vlad hasn't even turned 22. His first two seasons have been at ages 20 and 21, following a complete and utter annihilation of the minor leagues at the ages that. Throughout the entirety of his career, most "good" prospects would either still be in college or high school, or getting what might be considered an aggressive promotion to A+/AA. He projects highly because the kind of guys that are above average hitters at 20 and 21 with good K and BB rates and decent power tend to go on to be exceptional hitters. This is not to mention that what he did in the minors and at the age that he did it is basically a Hall of Fame level talent.

 

For as much as the projections don't like Teoscar as much as we might, what do you expect? The entirety of his breakout came in a 50 game sample with an elevated BABIP and worse BB rate. 2020 was a small sample size, guys put up a great 2-3 months all the time and then go back to being their usual self. I hope Teoscar builds on his offensive breakout, but the truth is the most likely scenario is he's exactly who he's been his whole career, maybe a slight upgrade on that.

 

Projection systems don't seem to be a great indicator for the future success of Teoscar Hernandez, as his run of success has been predicated on squaring up baseballs at a very high level. His success has come regardless of high strikeout rates or low walk rates. Teoscar's outbreak goes further back than a 50 game sample from 2020. He originally broke out in July of 2019. Since then he's produced a WRC+ of 140 with an exit velocity of 93.6 MPH. This has continued over a 5 month period which spans over two separate seasons and 117 games. The high BABIP is no fluke, he's been squaring up the ball with astonishing regularity over this entire timeframe. When a player hits the ball hard half of the time the expected results are going to follow. In 2020 Teoscar's xWOBA of .381 would seem to indicate that the WOBA of .378 is no fluke. Obviously if he stops squaring up baseballs the results are going to drop precipitously, hopefully he can clean up the plate discipline numbers a bit to help with obtaining future success.

[Jimcanuck]

Blue Jays

 

• Marcus Semien played through pain last season.

 

 

On top of that, Semien experienced a slump at the plate during summer camp that carried over into the start of the season. The stress of how a slow start in a 60-game season would affect his numbers led to more hours hitting in the cage, which led to a strained side that cost him seven games, but, more crucially, caused him to play through the pain for a large chunk of the year.

 

There were days when instead of taking batting practice, he was receiving treatment. Before the game, he’d take 15 quick swings in the cage, then go out to face the best pitchers on the planet.

 

“It wasn’t necessarily a recipe for success,” he said. “But once that got healthy, things picked up and I wish the season kept going because I knew I was headed in the right direction.”

 

Semien’s production lines up with this narrative, a slow start to the season but finished at his average production level.

[Jays24]

How many times do we hear the story about "a person played through some pain/discomfort" as to their reasoning on why they suck. Not saying it can't be true but it also doesn't mean it can't be false.

 

Loved the whole "Morales needed contacts and couldn't see pitches... thats why he sucked." It sure did work out for him eh lol.

[connorp]

Blue Jays

 

• Marcus Semien played through pain last season.

 

 

On top of that, Semien experienced a slump at the plate during summer camp that carried over into the start of the season. The stress of how a slow start in a 60-game season would affect his numbers led to more hours hitting in the cage, which led to a strained side that cost him seven games, but, more crucially, caused him to play through the pain for a large chunk of the year.

 

There were days when instead of taking batting practice, he was receiving treatment. Before the game, he’d take 15 quick swings in the cage, then go out to face the best pitchers on the planet.

 

“It wasn’t necessarily a recipe for success,” he said. “But once that got healthy, things picked up and I wish the season kept going because I knew I was headed in the right direction.”

 

Semien’s production lines up with this narrative, a slow start to the season but finished at his average production level.

 

So he was slumping hard during summer camp and that carried over to the start of season but it must’ve been the injury? As was discussed before, you can make whatever narrative you want based on data. If he had a really bad last two weeks you could just say he was really dinged up through the year and it caught up to him at the end

 

The week he missed was the second part of the season when he was doing good (started to hit). It’s just a dumb way to spin the narrative.

 

Not saying I dislike him or the signing...but it should be noted the “average production level” he finished at was his 90+ bat... so there’s really no glory in that. Not sure why that was added to the article like it was a win

[Jimcanuck]

So he was slumping hard during summer camp and that carried over to the start of season but it must’ve been the injury? As was discussed before, you can make whatever narrative you want based on data. If he had a really bad last two weeks you could just say he was really dinged up through the year and it caught up to him at the end

 

The week he missed was the second part of the season when he was doing good (started to hit). It’s just a dumb way to spin the narrative.

 

Not saying I dislike him or the signing...

 

Well if he played through pain for part of the season, and also ended up with a .260 BABIP, what I take from these two facts is he should have much better outcomes in 2021.

[connorp]

How many times do we hear the story about "a person played through some pain/discomfort" as to their reasoning on why they suck. Not saying it can't be true but it also doesn't mean it can't be false.

 

Loved the whole "Morales needed contacts and couldn't see pitches... thats why he sucked." It sure did work out for him eh lol.

 

Yeah.. I mean there’s definitely situations where an injury can cause bad numbers. Not saying there isn’t. But in this case it just seems like making a narrative to excuse a really bad start to the season. It happens. Batters slump. And yeah when he was sucking he probably started going nuts in the cage.

[connorp]

Well if he played through pain for part of the season, and also ended up with a .260 BABIP, what I take from these two facts is he should have much better outcomes in 2021.

 

It’s a complicated set of numbers to crunch so I’ll go with the computer view that he’ll be like a 106-111 bat. I just take exception to excusing away his slump to start the year like it didn’t happen

[Jays24]

Yeah.. I mean there’s definitely situations where an injury can cause bad numbers. Not saying there isn’t. But in this case it just seems like making a narrative to excuse a really bad start to the season. It happens. Batters slump. And yeah when he was sucking he probably started going nuts in the cage.

 

Exactly. It would be unwise to judge a player one way or another for last season since it was such a weird year. A lot of people are a creature of habit and it could be as simple as that for most.

 

I'm pumped thinking he bet on himself and believes he will be closer to the 2019. We'll get to reap the benefits for one season hopefully.

[max silver]

It’s a complicated set of numbers to crunch so I’ll go with the computer view that he’ll be like a 106-111 bat. I just take exception to excusing away his slump to start the year like it didn’t happen

 

There's no denying the slump happened, but he also had a slump in 2019 as well which he eventually worked his way through on the way to an elite season.

 

Semien played in 60 games in 2020, including the playoffs. Here’s how they break down in 30-game chunks:

 

First 30 Games: 7.2 BB%, 23.2 K%, .219 AVG, .275 OBP, .352 SLG

Last 30 Games: 14.7 BB%, 14.7 K%, .273 AVG, .380 OBP, .473 SLG

 

These numbers shouldn’t tell us that the first half of the season means nothing and the second half is a definitive indicator of where he’ll be in 2021. However, they do tell us that when we’re talking about Semien’s unimpressive offensive performance in 2020, we’re really talking about approximately a one-month slump.

 

“I came back to summer camp, and had a slump in the middle of summer camp that I brought into the season for the first two weeks,” Semien told reporters of his rough start in his introductory press conference Tuesday. “Those things happen over the course of a long season, but when it’s in the beginning and you know it’s only a 60-game season it kind of stresses you out a little bit more.”

 

When the veteran says “those things happen over the course a long season” he’s exactly right. Even in the midst of his stellar 2019 he had an extremely similar rough 30-game stretch. His worst OPS in a 30-game span that season was .591. In 2020 his worst was .590.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/exploring-blue-jays-semien-can-rediscover-elite-offensive-form/

[L54]

I don’t think it’s far fetched at all that players never really got into rhythm in 2020 for whatever reason. Whether it was injury, no access to tape between at bats, interrupted season or anything in between. These guys are creatures of habit and 2020 was extremely abnormal.

 

Semien is a 10-20% above league average hitter who plays up the middle. If he’s healthy he’s a lock for like 3 WAR and anything else is gravy.

[Spanky99]

I don’t think it’s far fetched at all that players never really got into rhythm in 2020 for whatever reason. Whether it was injury, no access to tape between at bats, interrupted season or anything in between. These guys are creatures of habit and 2020 was extremely abnormal.

 

Semien is a 10-20% above league average hitter who plays up the middle. If he’s healthy he’s a lock for like 3 WAR and anything else is gravy.

 

Ya mon, c-poop is dumn. He's going to rake this year.

[L54]

Ya mon, c-poop is dumn. He's going to rake this year.

 

I think so. He's always walked at a decent clip and kept K's in check which is a recipe for success in this offense.

[connorp]

Ya mon, c-poop is dumn. He's going to rake this year.

 

I didn’t say he wouldn’t. 2019 happened. The slump that killed last season happened too. That’s why he didn’t get a long-term deal but it’s also why he got a pretty lucrative 1 year deal to prove he’s legit. I hope he lights it up.