General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Stangstag]

If part of the cost of re-signing Semien is moving Bo from Short, then I'm even less interested than I was before. Semien is (likely) better right now, but he's 31, and Bo is 23, so I expect Bo to improve, and Semien to decline going forward. I really think you give Semien a qualifying offer, and a reasonable extension offer to stay at 2B. In the likely event he doesn't take it, you take your draft pick compensation and thank him for the great season.

 

Ray is EASILY the more important extension candidate, IMO.

 

I agree, i'm not sold that Semien will continue this kind of production going forward (offensively and defensively) and he's already past 30.

[glory]

If part of the cost of re-signing Semien is moving Bo from Short, then I'm even less interested than I was before. Semien is (likely) better right now, but he's 31, and Bo is 23, so I expect Bo to improve, and Semien to decline going forward. I really think you give Semien a qualifying offer, and a reasonable extension offer to stay at 2B. In the likely event he doesn't take it, you take your draft pick compensation and thank him for the great season.

 

Ray is EASILY the more important extension candidate, IMO.

 

Agreed. Bichette is still very young and having him at SS hasn't hurt the Jays chances of competing this season. Bringing Semien back as a 2B is fine, but I don't think Bo has Gleyber'd his way out of SS yet, so keep him there and work on his D.

 

I vaguely remember a FG article about how having Matt Chapman at 3B helped Semien's fielding at short. I don't know how true that is, but I guess my point is, buy low on Chapman and keep Bo at short. Problem solved. If only it were that easy.

[max silver]

Semien is too much of a professional to say anything, but it must be hard for a gold glove calibre SS to watch an inferior fielder play your position.

 

Moving Semien to 2B as a rental made perfect sense. But if the Jays are serious about keeping him long term, they'll need to offer him the SS spot.

 

When you start to examine the various defensive metrics it becomes apparent that this is somewhat of a false narrative.

 

I chose to utilize numbers from 2019-2021 to capture a more recent sample and to better compare to Bichette. During this timeframe there really aren't any metrics that show Semien to be an elite defender at this stage of his career. As he isn't getting any younger it seems unlikely that he will suddenly return to the elite defensive production of earlier seasons.

 

The best defensive metric for Semien looks to be UZR. If you are to look at UZR for 2019-2021 Semien ranks better than Bichette with a 9.7 UZR rating with most of his value accumulated in the error runs category. This still only ranks him 15 by UZR/150, good but certainly not elite. Bichette fairs poorly due to errors but when you look at the individual components such as range and double play runs he shows better than Semien in each, it's only large amount of errors from Bichette that is holding him back. He has been cleaning this up as the season has gone along and should continue to improve here.

 

From 2019-2021 In a 1796 inning sample Bichette has 7 DRS vs 2020 innings for Semien with 2 DRS.

 

When you examine Statcast Outs Above Average Semien has produced -14 OAA vs -9 OAA for Bichette. Neither one is great but I'll put my money on the younger player as being more likely to improve these numbers vs the aging veteran.

 

When you compare the metrics as a whole Bichette has actually produced better defensive numbers than Semien in 2 out of 3 of the most commonly cited metrics. Semien is an elite defender at second base, and Bichette looks to be improving to a large degree at short stop, whereas Semien looks to be declining. With Semien at short stop you would see less errors however he has worse range and a weaker arm and subsequently would make fewer tough plays than Bichette is capable of. Which of these players would ultimately save more runs defensively is obviously up for debate, but the one thing that is for certain is that Semien is far from a lock to be an improvement defensively at short stop vs Bichette at this point of his career.

[Stangstag]

Agreed. Bichette is still very young and having him at SS hasn't hurt the Jays chances of competing this season. Bringing Semien back as a 2B is fine, but I don't think Bo has Gleyber'd his way out of SS yet, so keep him there and work on his D.

 

I vaguely remember a FG article about how having Matt Chapman at 3B helped Semien's fielding at short. I don't know how true that is, but I guess my point is, buy low on Chapman and keep Bo at short. Problem solved. If only it were that easy.

 

You guys understand its ok to have 2 valid Shortstops on the team? Moving Bo to 2nd isn't saying he's bad at SS, its just saying the guy playing SS everyday is a better defender there.

 

I didn't agree with moving Bo off SS for a 1 year stopgap guy, but if they want to sign Semien long term then I think it DOES make sense to move Bo to 2nd (or 3rd). We still have guys like Groshans and Orelvis coming up that can take over SS later on...

[Stangstag]

When you start to examine the various defensive metrics it becomes apparent that this is somewhat of a false narrative.

 

I chose to utilize numbers from 2019-2021 to capture a more recent sample and to better compare to Bichette. During this timeframe there really aren't any metrics that show Semien to be an elite defender at this stage of his career. As he isn't getting any younger it seems unlikely that he will suddenly return to the elite defensive production of earlier seasons.

 

The best defensive metric for Semien looks to be UZR. If you are to look at UZR for 2019-2021 Semien ranks better than Bichette with a 9.7 UZR rating with most of his value accumulated in the error runs category. This still only ranks him 15 by UZR/150, good but certainly not elite. Bichette fairs poorly due to errors but when you look at the individual components such as range and double play runs he shows better than Semien in each, it's only large amount of errors from Bichette that is holding him back. He has been cleaning this up as the season has gone along and should continue to improve here.

 

From 2019-2021 In a 1796 inning sample Bichette has 7 DRS vs 2020 innings for Semien with 2 DRS.

 

When you examine Statcast Outs Above Average Semien has produced -14 OAA vs -9 OAA for Bichette. Neither one is great but I'll put my money on the younger player as being more likely to improve these numbers vs the aging veteran.

 

When you compare the metrics as a whole Bichette has actually produced better defensive numbers than Semien in 2 out of 3 of the most commonly cited metrics. Semien is an elite defender at second base, and Bichette looks to be improving to a large degree at short stop, whereas Semien looks to be declining. With Semien at short stop you would see less errors however he has worse range and a weaker arm and subsequently would make fewer tough plays than Bichette is capable of. Which of these players would ultimately save more runs defensively is obviously up for debate, but the one thing that is for certain is that Semien is far from a lock to be an improvement defensively at short stop vs Bichette at this point of his career.

 

Good points. I think its better if the team walks away from Semien honestly. He's gonna be in the decline stage of his career and he seems adamant on playing SS and going back to Cali.

[Deadpool]

You guys understand its ok to have 2 valid Shortstops on the team? Moving Bo to 2nd isn't saying he's bad at SS, its just saying the guy playing SS everyday is a better defender there.

 

I didn't agree with moving Bo off SS for a 1 year stopgap guy, but if they want to sign Semien long term then I think it DOES make sense to move Bo to 2nd (or 3rd). We still have guys like Groshans and Orelvis coming up that can take over SS later on...

 

I have no objection to having 2 valid shortstops on the team, but of the two, I would prefer Bo play SS both short and long term.

[glory]

You guys understand its ok to have 2 valid Shortstops on the team? Moving Bo to 2nd isn't saying he's bad at SS, its just saying the guy playing SS everyday is a better defender there.

 

I didn't agree with moving Bo off SS for a 1 year stopgap guy, but if they want to sign Semien long term then I think it DOES make sense to move Bo to 2nd (or 3rd). We still have guys like Groshans and Orelvis coming up that can take over SS later on...

 

As mentioned though, Semien is on the wrong side of 30 now, while Bichette is still very young. Semien was a better defensive SS previously but will he be over the next 3-5 years? Another factor is that Bichette wants to be a SS, and the Jays, if they want any chance of extending him, have to consider his wants to some degree (unless he becomes 2019-2020 Vlad, then you just make the move and tell him to be quiet). If the Jays re-sign Semien, and Bo agrees to moving off SS, then that's another story, but I don't see that happening, and if Semien would prefer moving back to SS, then coming back to the Jays becomes a little less of a priority especially if the offers are similar elsewhere.

[max silver]

As mentioned though, Semien is on the wrong side of 30 now, while Bichette is still very young. Semien was a better defensive SS previously but will he be over the next 3-5 years? Another factor is that Bichette wants to be a SS, and the Jays, if they want any chance of extending him, have to consider his wants to some degree (unless he becomes 2019-2020 Vlad, then you just make the move and tell him to be quiet). If the Jays re-sign Semien, and Bo agrees to moving off SS, then that's another story, but I don't see that happening, and if Semien would prefer moving back to SS, then coming back to the Jays becomes a little less of a priority especially if the offers are similar elsewhere.

 

I have suspicions Bo would be willing to move off of short stop if it meant the team was able to retain Semien. He was reportedly willing to move off of the position for Didi Gregorius prior to the 2020 season and Gregorius is a fraction of the player that Semien is. The team is just so much better with Semien on board than without and I have a hard time seeing any comparable free agents with respect to expected contract vs actual production offered. In a perfect world the team could sign somebody like Correa, but he is more likely to receive an 8-10 year mega contract which will make it hard to squeeze him into the team budget. Perhaps Story or Seager could be attained without completely breaking the bank but I simply think Semien is a better overall player than either right now and into the immediate future.

[Brownie19]

't agree with moving Bo off SS for a 1 year stopgap guy, but if they want to sign Semien long term then I think it DOES make sense to move Bo to 2nd (or 3rd). We still have guys like Groshans and Orelvis coming up that can take over SS later on...

 

These 2 will be 3rd basemen by the time they hit the majors.

[Stangstag]

These 2 will be 3rd basemen by the time they hit the majors.

 

Mayhaps

[Jonn]

Man, Jonn's dumn. Stick to the Jays bro.

 

Suck a plethora of cock Spanky.

[Spanky99]

This past month has been great, we've basically been playing playoff baseball for the better part of the month. None bigger than the next game... GO JAYS GO!!!

[Eat My Shatkins]

This past month has been great, we've basically been playing playoff baseball for the better part of the month. None bigger than the next game... GO JAYS GO!!!

 

Agreed. The team should be already clinched and as disappointing as it is that they aren't, at least they got scorching hot in September and made the last few weeks of the season matter. It looked they were cooked when they were down 8-2 to the A's a few weeks ago.

[Spanky99]

Agreed. The team should be already clinched and as disappointing as it is that they aren't, at least they got scorching hot in September and made the last few weeks of the season matter. It looked they were cooked when they were down 8-2 to the A's a few weeks ago.

 

My sig of Laika, was from that game, lol.

 

Oops... no that was from a big comeback against the Bosox.

[G-Snarls]

MLB Network

 

Pedro Martinez and Harold Reynolds are convinced the Jays will make it to the post season

 

Can't decide if that's good or bad LOL

[John_Havok]

MLB Network

 

Pedro Martinez and Harold Reynolds are convinced the Jays will make it to the post season

 

Can't decide if that's good or bad LOL

 

We're doomed. I mean, it's possible.. but not overly realistic.

[CBlake]

It seems of the 6 home games with the expanded capacity, the biggest run on tickets came for Thursday night with Ray on the mound. They have gradually been opening up rows and sections in the 500 level for the Yankees series. Looking forward to some good crowds down at the dome. Heading to at least three games at this point.

[Dick_Pole]

I know the conversations about Ryu versus Matz that took place a couple of weeks ago and the absolute disdain for the Matz supporter(s). But man, I'd feel better with Matz on the mound tomorrow. He's a more known commodity right now. Who knows what the Jays get out of Ryu. Let's hope the rest did him well and if not, he has a very short leash. The Jays can't afford to lose tomorrow's game.

[Abomination]

I know the conversations about Ryu versus Matz that took place a couple of weeks ago and the absolute disdain for the Matz supporter(s). But man, I'd feel better with Matz on the mound tomorrow. He's a more known commodity right now. Who knows what the Jays get out of Ryu. Let's hope the rest did him well and if not, he has a very short leash. The Jays can't afford to lose tomorrow's game.

 

 

Definitely a short leash. On the plus side, he's pitched pretty well in all four appearances against the Yankees this year.

[keggy]

When you start to examine the various defensive metrics it becomes apparent that this is somewhat of a false narrative.

 

I chose to utilize numbers from 2019-2021 to capture a more recent sample and to better compare to Bichette. During this timeframe there really aren't any metrics that show Semien to be an elite defender at this stage of his career. As he isn't getting any younger it seems unlikely that he will suddenly return to the elite defensive production of earlier seasons.

 

The best defensive metric for Semien looks to be UZR. If you are to look at UZR for 2019-2021 Semien ranks better than Bichette with a 9.7 UZR rating with most of his value accumulated in the error runs category. This still only ranks him 15 by UZR/150, good but certainly not elite. Bichette fairs poorly due to errors but when you look at the individual components such as range and double play runs he shows better than Semien in each, it's only large amount of errors from Bichette that is holding him back. He has been cleaning this up as the season has gone along and should continue to improve here.

 

From 2019-2021 In a 1796 inning sample Bichette has 7 DRS vs 2020 innings for Semien with 2 DRS.

 

When you examine Statcast Outs Above Average Semien has produced -14 OAA vs -9 OAA for Bichette. Neither one is great but I'll put my money on the younger player as being more likely to improve these numbers vs the aging veteran.

 

When you compare the metrics as a whole Bichette has actually produced better defensive numbers than Semien in 2 out of 3 of the most commonly cited metrics. Semien is an elite defender at second base, and Bichette looks to be improving to a large degree at short stop, whereas Semien looks to be declining. With Semien at short stop you would see less errors however he has worse range and a weaker arm and subsequently would make fewer tough plays than Bichette is capable of. Which of these players would ultimately save more runs defensively is obviously up for debate, but the one thing that is for certain is that Semien is far from a lock to be an improvement defensively at short stop vs Bichette at this point of his career.

 

I chose 2018-2020 because it was the time period Semien played a full time SS and after his true talent defense seemed to shift for the better. I'm making the assumption he's not the same horrible defender from 2015.

 

Including raw 2021 defensive metrics to compare Semien to Bichette as a SS is completely wrong. Semien played 2B this year. That's like saying Gurriel is a better outfielder than Springer because you counted all of his DH games.

 

Ignoring Semien completely, Bichette rates in the bottom tier of SS defenders over his career. Over that time, his performance on the field has matched the metrics (in my opinion). He looks like he's improving, we shall see what his defensive ceiling is.

[max silver]

I chose 2018-2020 because it was the time period Semien played a full time SS and after his true talent defense seemed to shift for the better. I'm making the assumption he's not the same horrible defender from 2015.

 

Including raw 2021 defensive metrics to compare Semien to Bichette as a SS is completely wrong. Semien played 2B this year. That's like saying Gurriel is a better outfielder than Springer because you counted all of his DH games.

 

Ignoring Semien completely, Bichette rates in the bottom tier of SS defenders over his career. Over that time, his performance on the field has matched the metrics (in my opinion). He looks like he's improving, we shall see what his defensive ceiling is.

 

If we are comparing the short stop play of Semien and Bichette I hardly see how a year when Bichette wasn't even in the league has any relevance. Are 2018 defensive numbers for a 32 year old player really of any relevance at this point anyway?

 

What in the world is wrong with including Semien's 2021 short stop metrics for this comparison? Semien played 134 innings in 2021 for the Blue Jays and the defensive metrics are separated by position so I really don't see how it isn't relevant here. It's not like I'm putting any of Semien's second base numbers into the comparison, and you still end up with a very close innings total for each player which is making for a very good apples to apples comparison over the chosen time frame. I really have no idea what you are trying to get at with the Gurriel/Springer tidbit.

 

Over the time that Bichette has been in the league the simple fact remains that during this time frame Semien has actually ranked worse in 2 of 3 major metrics. Semien is by no means a bad defender at short stop as he is sure handed and doesn't make a lot of mistakes, but it's really not true that he is some kind of gold glove calibre defender at the position.

[InvincibleTiger]

Oh God, Ryu is pitching today? Would rather even see Matz vs Yankees.

[Stangstag]

Oh God, Ryu is pitching today? Would rather even see Matz vs Yankees.

 

Have faith little one

[CBlake]

Whats the over/under on the crowd tonight , 25K?

[Stangstag]

Whats the over/under on the crowd tonight , 25K?

 

Im hoping its at least close to the current allowed capacity. Anything less than 25k would be upsetting

[LGBJ29]

Im hoping its at least close to the current allowed capacity. Anything less than 25k would be upsetting

 

According to the seat map looks like lots of seats still available. Im guessing mid-week short notice didnt give a lot of out of town fans a chance to book

[Dick_Pole]

Toronto is an expensive city. Between rising costs of food, gas and rent, no one within driving/walking distance can afford Blue Jays tickets anymore. I could with all my penny stock gains but I'm not allowed to attend for ***censored*** reasons.

[BCZ]

Ryu pitching is so dispiriting but it shouldn't be. Prove that feeling wrong mofo.

[CBlake]

Im hoping its at least close to the current allowed capacity. Anything less than 25k would be upsetting

 

According to the seat map looks like lots of seats still available. Im guessing mid-week short notice didnt give a lot of out of town fans a chance to book

 

Thursday night seems to be the one where there has been a run tickets, looks like it will be a near full capacity crowd.

[Jays24]

Anyone feel it's weird that Biggio hasn't been called back up yet in a reserve role at least? I'm not his biggest supporter but he'd a great piece off the bench.