General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[connorp]

But was it all tongue in cheek? We will never know

 

Ah. Looks like you didn’t join the Girchuk fapfest. You’re redeemed

[Ray]

Steven Matz's overall numbers have been pretty good. 3.8 FIP, 2 WAR in 118 innings. He's very very borderline, but any chance the Jays extend him the qualifying offer?

 

I suppose it's pretty pricey if he takes it, but it's pretty important to have that pitching depth as well.

 

He’s been fantastic in August. A better ERA than Robbie Ray this month.

 

I wouldn’t mind throwing the Tanner Roark deal at him, but the goal should obviously be that we try to extend Ray first and foremost. We could comfortably fill in Stripling for Matz in the 5th spot next season.

[John_Havok]

He’s been fantastic in August. A better ERA than Robbie Ray this month.

 

I wouldn’t mind throwing the Tanner Roark deal at him, but the goal should obviously be that we try to extend Ray first and foremost. We could comfortably fill in Stripling for Matz in the 5th spot next season.

 

Before I continue... can I confirm that you are not, in fact, saying that Matz is having a better August than Ray?

[Ray]

Before I continue... can I confirm that you are not, in fact, saying that Matz is having a better August than Ray?

 

No you can’t confirm that. All I said was that he’s had a better ERA this month so far, which is factually correct:

 

Matz: 5GS, 1.30 ERA

Ray: 6GS, 1.76 ERA

[glory]

Steven Matz's overall numbers have been pretty good. 3.8 FIP, 2 WAR in 118 innings. He's very very borderline, but any chance the Jays extend him the qualifying offer?

 

I suppose it's pretty pricey if he takes it, but it's pretty important to have that pitching depth as well.

 

Matz would accept the qualifying offer as soon as it was offered to him, so unless the Jays want him back on a 1/18 type of deal, I don't think they'll offer it to him. Bringing him back on a longer term deal is probably something they'll consider, but they really need to aim higher with the rotation, especially if they are losing Ray. With that said, safe to say the Matz trade with the Mets was a really good one. Bought low, and got good value.

[John_Havok]

No you can’t confirm that. All I said was that he’s had a better ERA this month so far, which is factually correct:

 

Matz: 5GS, 1.30 ERA

Ray: 6GS, 1.76 ERA

 

Good, because Ray is outpitching Matz by leaps and bounds, Matz is just having one super lucky month with stranding runners and HR suppression - both really far out of line with his career norms. His fielding independent numbers are pretty unimpressive. Ray is an unlucky May from being the clear Cy Young frontrunner in the AL.

 

that's not to say I would be averse to re-signing Matz either, he's a solid #4/5, but he's not close to Ray's talent.

[Olerud363]

Just a note on Robbie Ray - Ray set a new MLB record for the most strikeouts through the first 1,000 innings of a pitcher's career (1,241), overtaking the previous high of 1,222 that belonged to Yu Darvish.

 

This guy is getting more expensive to re-sign by the day.

 

In retrospect so weird that the was available so cheaply. He is basically Randy Johnson in his 20s with slightly better control. Doesn't mean he'll be Randy Johnson in his 30s, but it's also not as if he came from no where.

 

According to fWAR his 2017 season was about as good as 2021 so far, in the same number of innings. This season will probably end up being better because he'll get 30 more innings pitched.

[Sammy225]

Matz would accept the qualifying offer as soon as it was offered to him, so unless the Jays want him back on a 1/18 type of deal, I don't think they'll offer it to him. Bringing him back on a longer term deal is probably something they'll consider, but they really need to aim higher with the rotation, especially if they are losing Ray. With that said, safe to say the Matz trade with the Mets was a really good one. Bought low, and got good value.

 

I don't know right now going into next year it is locked that it is Ryu, Manoah, and Berrios which is a solid #3. I think Matz is a #5 guy on a contender.....

[Krylian]

Mets cleanup hitter Kevin Pillar

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't know right now going into next year it is locked that it is Ryu, Manoah, and Berrios which is a solid #3. I think Matz is a #5 guy on a contender.....

 

Stripling has been solid this year too and under control for next season as well.

 

If they can get Ray signed, the rotation is set up pretty good and would still have guys like Pearson and Hatch as dark horse/depth starters.

 

Ray

Berrios

Ryu

Manoah

Stripling

 

Pearson

Hatch

Bowden

 

 

Really want to see Ray back though.

[bones10]

How the f*** does fWAR for pitching work I'm ready to call Robbie Ray the best starter in the AL after considering where he pitches (AL East AND 3 bandbox home stadiums), the defense behind him and the fact that Cole is a dirty cheater. But he's in a complete log jam for even top 5.

[John_Havok]

How the f*** does fWAR for pitching work I'm ready to call Robbie Ray the best starter in the AL after considering where he pitches (AL East AND 3 bandbox home stadiums), the defense behind him and the fact that Cole is a dirty cheater. But he's in a complete log jam for even top 5.

 

He just gives up too many HRs, that's pretty much his only problem when it comes to fWAR.

[bones10]

He just gives up too many HRs, that's pretty much his only problem when it comes to fWAR.

 

Interestingly, bWAR does have him as the best pitcher in the AL and almost the entire league. I'm just going to side with that.

[John_Havok]

Interestingly, bWAR does have him as the best pitcher in the AL and almost the entire league. I'm just going to side with that.

 

Yeah, bWAR uses actual runs given up in their calcs rather than FIP which is what Fangraphs uses. I also misspoke earlier when i said that his HRs given up were the only thing hurting him. His runners stranded rate is also pretty god-tier and unsustainable which is another reason his fWAR takes a hit.

 

See of all the top tier pitchers, Ray has the lowest babip, highest strand rate, doesn't have the best K rate (but it's still great) or walk rate (again still pretty good), and the lowest ground ball rate. Each of those factors, since they get normalized to a degree with fWAR calcs, take him down ever so slightly but bWAR doesnt care about that.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Jays have signed Gregory Polanco to a minor league deal, and they also re-signed Luciano to a minor league deal as well.

 

Toronto will only Polanco the prorated league minimum salary if he makes it onto the big league roster, with that mark subtracted from Pittsburgh’s obligations. Because the Jays worked out a deal with Polanco before September 1, he would be eligible for their postseason roster. That’d require him to perform well enough to earn an MLB look and the Jays to erase a four and a half game deficit in the Wild Card race over the season’s final month. Polanco will again reach free agency this offseason.

 

Luciano was cut loose last week to open a spot on the Jays’ 40-man roster. He’ll now return without requiring a 40-man spot. Luciano has spent the season with Double-A New Hampshire, where he’s posted a 3.41 ERA across 34 1/3 innings but suffered through a pair of stints on the injured list.

 

[Spanky99]

Jays have signed Gregory Polanco to a minor league deal, and they also re-signed Luciano to a minor league deal as well.

 

Nice that we got Luciano back. Polanco suxxxxxx

[Daniel Labude]

[Eat My Shatkins]

Bryan Baker?

 

Wow.

 

I'll be glad to get a look at him, but weird as hell that it isn't Merryweather. I wonder what is up with that.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nice that we got Luciano back. Polanco suxxxxxx

 

Haha, yeah I didn't post that for the Polanco news, very nice that they got to keep Luciano after all and freed up a spot on the 40 man in the process.

[Daniel Labude]

Bryan Baker?

 

Wow.

 

I'll be glad to get a look at him, but weird as hell that it isn't Merryweather. I wonder what is up with that.

 

I think he has had only 3 innings at AAA after being out all year, so it will take probably 3 more until they fill like he is up to speed

[The Cats Ass]

Nice that we got Luciano back. Polanco suxxxxxx

 

Polanco still hits the ball hard. No risk, potential reward situation. 97 percentile in Max Exit Velocity, 84 percentile in HardHit%. Also has above average speed, avg exit velocity, and barrel%.

 

Good chance he ends up doing nothing for us. But there's also a slight chance the organization can unlock his bat, since the Pirates haven't been able to.

Edited September 1, 2021 by The Cats Ass

[Brownie19]

Polanco still hits the ball hard. No risk, potential reward situation. 97 percentile in Max Exit Velocity, 84 percentile in HardHit%. Also has above average speed, avg exit velocity, and barrel%.

 

Good chance he ends up doing nothing for us. But there's also a slight chance the organization can unlock his bat, since the Pirates haven't been able to.

 

He's the next Jose Bautista!!!

[TheHurl]

He's the next Jose Bautista!!!

 

Except he was given every possible chance to succeed in the majors and did not, which kind of makes him not like Bautista at all.

[Stangstag]

Polanco still hits the ball hard. No risk, potential reward situation. 97 percentile in Max Exit Velocity, 84 percentile in HardHit%. Also has above average speed, avg exit velocity, and barrel%.

 

Good chance he ends up doing nothing for us. But there's also a slight chance the organization can unlock his bat, since the Pirates haven't been able to.

 

Crazy that he went from being a great prospect and having a decent sophomore season to just losing it completely... kinda reminds me of Jason Heyward with less tools.

[The Cats Ass]

Except he was given every possible chance to succeed in the majors and did not, which kind of makes him not like Bautista at all.

 

Nelson Cruz lite maybe?

[Stangstag]

Nelson Cruz lite maybe?

 

Lets get him on the juice program in the offseason then maybe

[Brownie19]

Except he was given every possible chance to succeed in the majors and did not, which kind of makes him not like Bautista at all.

 

C'mon Hurl - Bautista had 1573 PA's before he joined Toronto. He was 27 and had a BB% just under 10 and a K% in the low 20's. We don't have statcast data, but I would suspect he was hitting the ball hard and we know he had a canon for an arm.

 

Polanco's obviously had more opportunity and is 2 years older, but his career BB% is at 8.9, K% 21.6 and he's a toolsy f*** who hits the ball very hard.....oh, and he comes from Pittsburgh to Toronto.

 

The tongue and cheek comparison isn't too bad man.

[Olerud363]

Except he was given every possible chance to succeed in the majors and did not, which kind of makes him not like Bautista at all.

 

Sort of. Bautista had about 400 games with the Pirates, while Polanco had 800... so yeah given a lot of chances. And he was OK his first few seasons, but absolute garbage the last 3.

 

Polanco's also 2 years older than Bautista was when he joined the Jays. Bautista kind of had 2008 and 2009 to get hitting tips from Murph and Cito, before breaking out in 2010. if Polanco needs the same two years to get hitting tips from Martinez and Bichette he'll be 31 before being ready for a big break out. Unlikely.

[Brownie19]

Sort of. Bautista had about 400 games with the Pirates, while Polanco had 800... so yeah given a lot of chances. And he was OK his first few seasons, but absolute garbage the last 3.

 

Polanco's also 2 years older than Bautista was when he joined the Jays. Bautista kind of had 2008 and 2009 to get hitting tips from Murph and Cito, before breaking out in 2010. if Polanco needs the same two years to get hitting tips from Martinez and Bichette he'll be 31 before being ready for a big break out. Unlikely.

 

The good news is it's 2021 and we have much more advance ways to change swings than taking tips from Cito and Murph. Throw him in the lab this offseason and see what happens....now obviously you'd think that if it were that easy, Pittsburgh would have done the same, but there still seem to be organizations out there who simply can't get the most of the talent they have (Cole, Meadows, Glasnow, Musgrove, etc.) are all recent examples out of Pittsburgh.

 

Now that said - I was just trying to make a little joke comparison. There's probably a 98% chance Polanco is pure garbage and nobody can fix him.

[Spanky99]

The good news is it's 2021 and we have much more advance ways to change swings than taking tips from Cito and Murph. Throw him in the lab this offseason and see what happens....now obviously you'd think that if it were that easy, Pittsburgh would have done the same, but there still seem to be organizations out there who simply can't get the most of the talent they have (Cole, Meadows, Glasnow, Musgrove, etc.) are all recent examples out of Pittsburgh.

 

Now that said - I was just trying to make a little joke comparison. There's probably a 98% chance Polanco is pure garbage and nobody can fix him.

 

Different FO now in Pittsburgh, they recognized a turd when they saw one, lol. He hasn't been good since he was popped for roids...