Vladdy Guerrero has lost more than 30 pounds (12 pounds in the offseason so far)

[Angrioter]

How's Otto Lopez look Ang?

Really like him.

[G-Snarls]

That swing was f'n beautiful

 

Si senores! Adios!!!

[Jimcanuck]

That swing was f'n beautiful

 

Si senores! Adios!!!

 

Yep, looks like he's making a launch angle adjustment.

[G-Snarls]

Yep, looks like he's making a launch angle adjustment.

 

Yes

 

The power is insane

 

Just needs to sort out the swing plane/launch angle business

[max silver]

Yes

 

The power is insane

 

Just needs to sort out the swing plane/launch angle business

 

If Vladdy Jr. breaks out completely and the Jays add a chunk of quality players to the roster the Jays suddenly look very legit as a contender. They are going to score a ton of runs from the looks of the lineup that's already available, just need to sort out the pitching staff so that the team can slow down the runs from the opposition a bit.

[jerb]

[The Iceman]

Awesome, he looks great.

 

Now if I could only see video of him catching a pop fly at 1st I would be ready to anoint him the Jays 1st baseman for the next 10 years.

[Krylian]

Awesome, he looks great.

 

Now if I could only see video of him catching a pop fly at 1st I would be ready to anoint him the Jays 1st baseman for the next 10 years.

 

Is he not playing 3B in the DWL? Kinda hard for him to make the move back if he isn't able to take advantage of every possible opportunity to work on his craft there.

 

That said.....if he is going to play 1B, I want to see how he handles the grounder between 1st and 2nd. That's the benchmark for me.

[The Iceman]

Is he not playing 3B in the DWL? Kinda hard for him to make the move back if he isn't able to take advantage of every possible opportunity to work on his craft there.

 

That said.....if he is going to play 1B, I want to see how he handles the grounder between 1st and 2nd. That's the benchmark for me.

 

And how many times did you yell at the TV watching him range to his right cutting off a ball to the 2nd baseman. A pretty teachable skill to leave those when you know where the 2nd baseman is set up I would think.

It frustrates me that he is not accepting his move to 1st. I was reading an article where they thought it was for financial reasons. That the 1st baseman of the modern day isn't compensated anywhere as well as a 3rd baseman. I hope this isn't the case.

[Krylian]

And how many times did you yell at the TV watching him range to his right cutting off a ball to the 2nd baseman. A pretty teachable skill to leave those when you know where the 2nd baseman is set up I would think.

It frustrates me that he is not accepting his move to 1st. I was reading an article where they thought it was for financial reasons. That the 1st baseman of the modern day isn't compensated anywhere as well as a 3rd baseman. I hope this isn't the case.

 

I'd be pretty surprised if that's the case. I've been a long time critic of Rogers as it pertains to finances...and I started off as a skeptic with Shapiro and Atkins, but have come around on the two. It would be an awful look if there was any truth to that. I took his move to 1B as a result of his poor D at third. Nothing more. But it sounds like he is committed this time to getting in better shape and the hope is that it'll aid his mobility, range, and skills at the hot corner. I still don't see him sticking there, but I'm willing to at least give him spring training to show that he's a changed man.

[Orgfiller]

And how many times did you yell at the TV watching him range to his right cutting off a ball to the 2nd baseman. A pretty teachable skill to leave those when you know where the 2nd baseman is set up I would think.

It frustrates me that he is not accepting his move to 1st. I was reading an article where they thought it was for financial reasons. That the 1st baseman of the modern day isn't compensated anywhere as well as a 3rd baseman. I hope this isn't the case.

 

Vlad Jr. was one of the worst defensive 3B in the league his rookie year, and then he followed that up by coming into post-lockdown camp completely out of shape and more immobile than before. There was clearly a lot of disappointment from the FO that they were forced to make that move before they wanted to. Anyone who claims his move to 1B was for financial reasons is totally out of it.

[The Iceman]

The Tigers knew the hulking Cabrera wouldn’t be a Gold Glover at the hot corner, but they figured they’d rather have a poor defensive third baseman that could mash, and a slugging first baseman, than Cabrera at first and a more defensive-oriented player at third. As long as their franchise player wasn’t a complete disaster at his new position— which he hadn’t played regularly since 2007— the Tigers figured they’d come out on top. They were right, as Cabrera produced more defensive value in 2012-13 than the next two years, even though he was actually an above-average first baseman.

 

2012

3B

-1.6

1.5

-0.1

2013

3B

-6

2

-4

2014

1B

3.1

-11.9

-8.8

2015

1B

2.2

-9.2

-7

Cabrera won consecutive MVPs in his years at third, while the Tigers were able to construct a lineup that also featured Fielder and full-time DHs (Delmon Young in 2012 and Victor Martinez in 2013) that drove deep playoff runs.

 

We shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves with this comparison, because Cabrera was in the midst of a Hall of Fame peak offensively, and he was a better fielder than what Guerrero Jr. is today. Vladdy isn’t an above-average first baseman, and he projects to be worse than Cabrera was at third.

 

That said, we can use this framework to mock out the defensive value of Guerrero Jr. at the two positions. Here’s what his defensive production looks like on a per 1,350 inning (150 game) basis so far in his young career, using the 2020 positional adjustments from the Ramirez-Olson example:

 

3B

-15.4

1.9

-13.5

1B

-8.1

-11.6

-19.7

Based on those numbers, you could argue that Guerrero Jr. should be the third baseman already, even if he’s no better there than he was in 2019. However, there are a couple of problems with that.

 

First, Vladdy probably wouldn’t be nearly as poor a first baseman in 2021 as he showed in a 34-game sample this past season. His weight loss would help him there too, as would getting more experience at the position. The sample is also small enough that it’s hard to take it too literally.

 

The other issue is that his work at third was bad enough that he could reasonably be considered “unplayable” there given the adverse effect he’d have on the pitching staff. The question is how much can his body transformation improve his defensive production, and in what areas. It seems fair to assume that his weight loss could help him in terms of both quickness and range.

 

In 2019, we saw a few examples of Guerrero Jr. just not moving well enough to handle his position. Perhaps a trimmer Vladdy would watch fewer grounders make their way down the third-base line

 

Whether he could reach the level of an acceptable everyday third baseman is hard to know, but we can make a few educated guesses.

 

Let’s say Guerrero Jr. was able to split the difference between his brutal range in 2019 and a league-average one, still leaving him as a significant net negative in the area. Considering his size, he’s never going to look like Nolan Arenado out there, but he could be far better than he showed as a rookie. Also, let’s do the same thing with his errors. That may sound like a lot, but the 21-year-old ranked dead last among 30 third baseman in error runs below average (-3.7) in 2019. If we bring him to -1.8, that only ticks him up to 27th. Considering 76.5 percent of his errors were of the fielding variety, as opposed to throws, there’s plenty of room to improve. We won’t touch his double-play runs because those are tougher to link to body composition.

 

The result is a third baseman who’s still pretty poor across the board.

 

-8.2

1.9

-6.3

That attainable improvement would make him significantly more valuable defensively than he would be even if he were an average first baseman, which is probably a stretch — at least in 2021.

 

 

0

-11.6

-11.6

Beyond Guerrero Jr.’s literal value, if he was able to play third he would open up a number of roster construction possibilities for the Blue Jays. As it stands, the club needs one full-time position player, but its options for what kind of player that can be are somewhat limited.

 

Unless the Blue Jays make a significant acquisition, the outfield of Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is locked in. Adding someone else to that mix would have to bring the DH spot into play for one of the outfielders. Right now, that’s an issue with one of Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez occupying that spot on a regular basis.

 

A year ago, sidelining Tellez looked advisable, bordering on necessary. However, after a 2020 season in which he cut his strikeout rate almost in half while maintaining his power, he looks like a guy you want in your lineup — especially if you’re short on left-handed thump. This profile is awfully tough to leave on the bench:

 

 

 

That means if the Blue Jays want to make a big splash they are either being funneled towards infielders or away from Tellez. Even if they opt for a third baseman, or a middle infielder that eventually pushes Cavan Biggio to third, they are still stuck with an inflexible roster that doesn’t allow them to use the DH to exploit specific matchups or give their guys a rest.

 

In a world where Guerrero Jr. is viable at third, Rowdy Tellez slots in at first, and the DH spot is ripe for rotating players through. That would make free-agent corner outfielders such as Michael Brantley, or even an international import like Sung-bum Na, more realistic options to bolster their lineup. The Blue Jays could shop for offensive firepower and lineup fit, as opposed to defensive need.

 

How Guerrero Jr. at third base helps Guerrero Jr.

While part of Guerrero Jr.’s motivation to take back third base relates to helping the Blue Jays, his determination to do so almost certainly has to do with his own earning potential.

 

To be clear, that’s far from a criticism. It’s natural for any athlete to want to maximize their ability to provide for themselves and their families — and gain the industry-wide acclaim that comes with landing a major contract. For superstars, a group Guerrero Jr. could conceivably join, there’s also the responsibility of setting favourable precedents for future generations.

 

If Guerrero Jr. and his representatives are thinking strategically about his career, the reality is that he stands to earn far more money as a third baseman than he does at first. If we look at active contracts signed in the last five years, the top 10 contracts for free-agent third baseman are worth a collective $1.375 billion. The top 10 first baseman are making $872.8 million.

 

That number is misleading as well because $248 million of the first base total belongs to the Miguel Cabrera contract in 2016 that was considered a huge mistake at the time and looks even worse now. The group of first baseman who gets paid is also extremely shallow. You’ll notice I said the “top 10 first baseman” as opposed to the “top 10 contracts.” That’s because the 10th first baseman in terms of total cash is Josh Bell, and his $6 million is just an arbitration projection for 2021. The 10th third baseman is Matt Carpenter at $39 million.

 

In recent seasons, we’ve also seen 1B/DH types consistently non-tendered by teams, even after solid seasons. Pedro Alvarez was cut loose in 2015 after four straight above-average offensive seasons in which he hit 111 home runs. Chris Carter was famously cut after a 40-homer 2016. The next year, Matt Adams got the ax after posting an .856 OPS in 100 games with the Atlanta Braves. In 2019, C.J. Cron was non-tendered after a 30-homer, 2.2 WAR season with the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

Things would have to go terribly wrong for Guerrero Jr. to find himself in the non-tender conversation, but the activity in that area proves how fungible teams around the league consider first baseman at the moment. In the last two offseasons, the only full-time 1B/DH to secure a multi-year free-agent contract was Daniel Murphy, who the Colorado Rockies gave a relatively-modest two-year $24 million deal. Over the same period, as many as 10 third basemen have secured multi-year commitments, depending on how you want to define multi-positional players.

 

If you’re a first baseman and you want to score the big contract these days, you need to be a future Hall of Famer (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera), franchise icon (Joey Votto, Chris Davis), multiple-time all-star in their prime (Prince Fielder, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman), or have the GOAT agent find you an inexplicably good deal (Eric Hosmer). Most of those deals have turned out to be regrettable ones teams aren’t eager to repeat and nobody who these labels don’t apply to has grabbed a contract worth even $75 million in the last 10 years. One of them could apply to Guerrero Jr. someday, but that’s far from a guarantee despite his talents.

 

Conversely, if you’re a third baseman you can get your money if you’re a good-but-not-great hitter (Kyle Seager), one with conditioning concerns (Pablo Sandoval), a 34-year-old with chronic lower leg issues (Josh Donaldson), a 32-year-old that has been a below-average player the vast majority of his career (Justin Turner), or a younger version of that (Eugenio Suarez). All of those guys made between $60 million and $100 million. The superstar third basemen (Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon, and Arenado) all topped Pujols’s all-time record deal for a first baseman.

 

Guerrero Jr.’s efforts to reclaim third base could prove futile by a Blue Jays’ move in the days to come, or simply his inability to make a significant enough improvement defensively following his weight loss. For now, though, the dream of Vladdy at third is alive, and if he can make it a reality it would pay off handsomely for everyone involved.

[keggy]

If we can't identify the problem, we are guaranteed to fail. The question isn't whether Guerrero is entitled a starting position at 3B, the question is whether he is even salvageable at 1B.

 

Scouts have been projecting Guerrero to move off of 3B since he was a 16 year old kid. In 2019 he accumulated the most negative defensive value at 3B in the league despite playing a partial season. The eye test, numbers and basically common sense tell us that he shouldn't be out there.

 

Somehow he managed to play even worse at 1B. Just by memory, he dropped at least one chest-level throw from the infield and overran MULTIPLE routine popups. These are among the highest percentage plays in baseball, I'm talking little league stuff here. I'm not even going to touch his journeys into 2B.

 

I'm fine with using Guerrero as a third string/emergency 3B for roster flexibility, but indulging him with a shot at the starting 3B job that he hasn't earned won't help at all with his maturity/baseball IQ issues. He's basically Ryan Braun/Gary Sheffield out there, and the coaching staff/management should be threatening to make him a full time DH if he plays even remotely as bad as he did last year.

 

This will probably raise a lot of eyebrows, but from a pure baseball standpoint I would really have liked if they moved Vlad to RF earlier in his development. He has a good arm and he can run after the ball all he wants out there. His footspeed is actually playable in right, especially if he loses weight.

 

When it comes to the weight, fielding, etc. management needs to communicate a clear plan with expectations and stick with it. Teasing fans by having him take grounders at 3B in the middle of the season when he was drowning at 1B was silly. Vlad has clearly been confused over the past couple of years and that's mostly on management. He seems to be taking his weight more seriously which is a great first step.

[G-Snarls]

I just want him to play a position adequately, ANY position...

 

And slash .275/.340/.610/.950

[RobinThicc]

He'll absolutely make himself more money if he's an average 3b, so im not surprised he's trying to play there.

 

It would give the team a lot more flexibility if he could give them innings at 3b anyways. Just gotta hope he's at least adequate at third.

[G-Snarls]

He'll absolutely make himself more money if he's an average 3b, so im not surprised he's trying to play there.

 

It would give the team a lot more flexibility if he could give them innings at 3b anyways. Just gotta hope he's at least adequate at third.

 

At this point its probably more a pride/prove himself thing rather than financial motivation. He's cost controlled for 6 years either way. (Maybe he makes a little more in arbitration as a 3B I suppose, I just don't think thats likely his main motivation)

Edited December 15, 2020 by G-Snarls

[wamco]

The Tigers knew the hulking Cabrera wouldn’t be a Gold Glover at the hot corner, but they figured they’d rather have a poor defensive third baseman that could mash, and a slugging first baseman, than Cabrera at first and a more defensive-oriented player at third. As long as their franchise player wasn’t a complete disaster at his new position— which he hadn’t played regularly since 2007— the Tigers figured they’d come out on top. They were right, as Cabrera produced more defensive value in 2012-13 than the next two years, even though he was actually an above-average first baseman.

 

2012

3B

-1.6

1.5

-0.1

2013

3B

-6

2

-4

2014

1B

3.1

-11.9

-8.8

2015

1B

2.2

-9.2

-7

Cabrera won consecutive MVPs in his years at third, while the Tigers were able to construct a lineup that also featured Fielder and full-time DHs (Delmon Young in 2012 and Victor Martinez in 2013) that drove deep playoff runs.

 

We shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves with this comparison, because Cabrera was in the midst of a Hall of Fame peak offensively, and he was a better fielder than what Guerrero Jr. is today. Vladdy isn’t an above-average first baseman, and he projects to be worse than Cabrera was at third.

 

That said, we can use this framework to mock out the defensive value of Guerrero Jr. at the two positions. Here’s what his defensive production looks like on a per 1,350 inning (150 game) basis so far in his young career, using the 2020 positional adjustments from the Ramirez-Olson example:

 

3B

-15.4

1.9

-13.5

1B

-8.1

-11.6

-19.7

Based on those numbers, you could argue that Guerrero Jr. should be the third baseman already, even if he’s no better there than he was in 2019. However, there are a couple of problems with that.

 

First, Vladdy probably wouldn’t be nearly as poor a first baseman in 2021 as he showed in a 34-game sample this past season. His weight loss would help him there too, as would getting more experience at the position. The sample is also small enough that it’s hard to take it too literally.

 

The other issue is that his work at third was bad enough that he could reasonably be considered “unplayable” there given the adverse effect he’d have on the pitching staff. The question is how much can his body transformation improve his defensive production, and in what areas. It seems fair to assume that his weight loss could help him in terms of both quickness and range.

 

In 2019, we saw a few examples of Guerrero Jr. just not moving well enough to handle his position. Perhaps a trimmer Vladdy would watch fewer grounders make their way down the third-base line

 

Whether he could reach the level of an acceptable everyday third baseman is hard to know, but we can make a few educated guesses.

 

Let’s say Guerrero Jr. was able to split the difference between his brutal range in 2019 and a league-average one, still leaving him as a significant net negative in the area. Considering his size, he’s never going to look like Nolan Arenado out there, but he could be far better than he showed as a rookie. Also, let’s do the same thing with his errors. That may sound like a lot, but the 21-year-old ranked dead last among 30 third baseman in error runs below average (-3.7) in 2019. If we bring him to -1.8, that only ticks him up to 27th. Considering 76.5 percent of his errors were of the fielding variety, as opposed to throws, there’s plenty of room to improve. We won’t touch his double-play runs because those are tougher to link to body composition.

 

The result is a third baseman who’s still pretty poor across the board.

 

-8.2

1.9

-6.3

That attainable improvement would make him significantly more valuable defensively than he would be even if he were an average first baseman, which is probably a stretch — at least in 2021.

 

 

0

-11.6

-11.6

Beyond Guerrero Jr.’s literal value, if he was able to play third he would open up a number of roster construction possibilities for the Blue Jays. As it stands, the club needs one full-time position player, but its options for what kind of player that can be are somewhat limited.

 

Unless the Blue Jays make a significant acquisition, the outfield of Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is locked in. Adding someone else to that mix would have to bring the DH spot into play for one of the outfielders. Right now, that’s an issue with one of Guerrero Jr. and Rowdy Tellez occupying that spot on a regular basis.

 

A year ago, sidelining Tellez looked advisable, bordering on necessary. However, after a 2020 season in which he cut his strikeout rate almost in half while maintaining his power, he looks like a guy you want in your lineup — especially if you’re short on left-handed thump. This profile is awfully tough to leave on the bench:

 

 

 

That means if the Blue Jays want to make a big splash they are either being funneled towards infielders or away from Tellez. Even if they opt for a third baseman, or a middle infielder that eventually pushes Cavan Biggio to third, they are still stuck with an inflexible roster that doesn’t allow them to use the DH to exploit specific matchups or give their guys a rest.

 

In a world where Guerrero Jr. is viable at third, Rowdy Tellez slots in at first, and the DH spot is ripe for rotating players through. That would make free-agent corner outfielders such as Michael Brantley, or even an international import like Sung-bum Na, more realistic options to bolster their lineup. The Blue Jays could shop for offensive firepower and lineup fit, as opposed to defensive need.

 

How Guerrero Jr. at third base helps Guerrero Jr.

While part of Guerrero Jr.’s motivation to take back third base relates to helping the Blue Jays, his determination to do so almost certainly has to do with his own earning potential.

 

To be clear, that’s far from a criticism. It’s natural for any athlete to want to maximize their ability to provide for themselves and their families — and gain the industry-wide acclaim that comes with landing a major contract. For superstars, a group Guerrero Jr. could conceivably join, there’s also the responsibility of setting favourable precedents for future generations.

 

If Guerrero Jr. and his representatives are thinking strategically about his career, the reality is that he stands to earn far more money as a third baseman than he does at first. If we look at active contracts signed in the last five years, the top 10 contracts for free-agent third baseman are worth a collective $1.375 billion. The top 10 first baseman are making $872.8 million.

 

That number is misleading as well because $248 million of the first base total belongs to the Miguel Cabrera contract in 2016 that was considered a huge mistake at the time and looks even worse now. The group of first baseman who gets paid is also extremely shallow. You’ll notice I said the “top 10 first baseman” as opposed to the “top 10 contracts.” That’s because the 10th first baseman in terms of total cash is Josh Bell, and his $6 million is just an arbitration projection for 2021. The 10th third baseman is Matt Carpenter at $39 million.

 

In recent seasons, we’ve also seen 1B/DH types consistently non-tendered by teams, even after solid seasons. Pedro Alvarez was cut loose in 2015 after four straight above-average offensive seasons in which he hit 111 home runs. Chris Carter was famously cut after a 40-homer 2016. The next year, Matt Adams got the ax after posting an .856 OPS in 100 games with the Atlanta Braves. In 2019, C.J. Cron was non-tendered after a 30-homer, 2.2 WAR season with the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

Things would have to go terribly wrong for Guerrero Jr. to find himself in the non-tender conversation, but the activity in that area proves how fungible teams around the league consider first baseman at the moment. In the last two offseasons, the only full-time 1B/DH to secure a multi-year free-agent contract was Daniel Murphy, who the Colorado Rockies gave a relatively-modest two-year $24 million deal. Over the same period, as many as 10 third basemen have secured multi-year commitments, depending on how you want to define multi-positional players.

 

If you’re a first baseman and you want to score the big contract these days, you need to be a future Hall of Famer (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera), franchise icon (Joey Votto, Chris Davis), multiple-time all-star in their prime (Prince Fielder, Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman), or have the GOAT agent find you an inexplicably good deal (Eric Hosmer). Most of those deals have turned out to be regrettable ones teams aren’t eager to repeat and nobody who these labels don’t apply to has grabbed a contract worth even $75 million in the last 10 years. One of them could apply to Guerrero Jr. someday, but that’s far from a guarantee despite his talents.

 

Conversely, if you’re a third baseman you can get your money if you’re a good-but-not-great hitter (Kyle Seager), one with conditioning concerns (Pablo Sandoval), a 34-year-old with chronic lower leg issues (Josh Donaldson), a 32-year-old that has been a below-average player the vast majority of his career (Justin Turner), or a younger version of that (Eugenio Suarez). All of those guys made between $60 million and $100 million. The superstar third basemen (Manny Machado, Anthony Rendon, and Arenado) all topped Pujols’s all-time record deal for a first baseman.

 

Guerrero Jr.’s efforts to reclaim third base could prove futile by a Blue Jays’ move in the days to come, or simply his inability to make a significant enough improvement defensively following his weight loss. For now, though, the dream of Vladdy at third is alive, and if he can make it a reality it would pay off handsomely for everyone involved.

 

-no

[G-Snarls]

There's fat, and then there's ex-Blue Jay Juan Francisco fat...

 

[wilko]

There's fat, and then there's ex-Blue Jay Juan Francisco fat...

 

 

s*** I forgot about him! He had monster power, but just couldn't put it all together. He's still only 33!

[L54]

Who remembers Juan Francisco's bomb against the Reds like 4 years ago when they were down 8 and came back and won with like three innings to play? I DO!

[G-Snarls]

Who remembers Juan Francisco's bomb against the Reds like 4 years ago when they were down 8 and came back and won with like three innings to play? I DO!

 

Every caller to Mike Wilner that night thought they had found another Bautista/Encarnacion

[Angrioter]

 

101 mph pitch

[G-Snarls]

So guys dance after hitting doubles in the DWL? Lol

[G-Snarls]

His speed running the bases didn't look half bad

[keggy]

His speed running the bases didn't look half bad

 

Kid has terrible baserunning and statcast numbers, but he can clearly run. Losing weight and gaining some baseball IQ will pay dividends in so many ways.

[G-Snarls]

Nice...

 

Toronto Blue Jays (@bluejays) • Instagram photos and videos

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

19K likes, 138 comments - bluejays on December 19, 2020: "Who wants to see ANOTHER Vladdy rocket? 🤚 #PLAKATA 💥".

[Spanky99]

Nice...

 

Toronto Blue Jays (@bluejays) • Instagram photos and videos

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

19K likes, 138 comments - bluejays on December 19, 2020: "Who wants to see ANOTHER Vladdy rocket? 🤚 #PLAKATA 💥".

 

Cool kid's on fire!

[THANOS]

Cool kid's on fire!

 

Smashed, but, is it just me, or does he look like he put on a few more pounds since he started playing games?

[Grant77]

Smashed, but, is it just me, or does he look like he put on a few more pounds since he started playing games?

 

It's difficult to notice a few pounds on your own body, let alone on someone else wearing a baggy uniform. I can't really tell to be honest.

[Sorrow]

His swing reminds me a lot more of his dads now, a lot more explosive.