Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Even if he’s replacement level in 2024 again I can’t see him being cut - he’s become a mascot for the Jays.

[wamco]

I’d see a trade, not an outright release

[BigCecil]

- Gets up

 

- Sips coffee

 

- Checks fangraphs for Vlad's WAR 2023 season today and its 0.2

 

- Checks AAV $14.5M

[L54]

I remember Tango saying happen because people are answering different questions, or not answering... I have three questions. Are these questions really that outlandish?

 

Question 1: What will Vlad's 2024 and 2025 Salary be in comparison to his 2023 performance?

 

Question 2: What are the chances that Vlad's 2024 performance is similar to his 2023 performance?

 

Question 3: What are the chances that a cold hearted front office releases a player as loved as Vladimir Guerrero jr, if his salary is way above his performance level.

 

1: I bet they settle around 20M for next year. Jays won’t want bad blood if they decide to talk extension or in FA. Vlad’s camp will try and get out of the teens and into the 20’s heading into this last arb year in ‘24.

 

2: 30%. 60% chance he’s much better, 10% he’s worse.

 

3: 0%

[Captain_Obvious]

Is there any other org that allows 3 key players to get so out of shape and then continue to reward them?

 

Manoah comes to ST fat and they give him opening day starter. Vlad continues to be fat and they trot him out every game despite being below replacement in the past two months. Kirk gets even fatter and they still have him split time with Jansen.

 

There is no accountability in this org.

[L54]

Is there any other org that allows 3 key players to get so out of shape and then continue to reward them?

 

Manoah comes to ST fat and they give him opening day starter. Vlad continues to be fat and they trot him out every game despite being below replacement in the past two months. Kirk gets even fatter and they still have him split time with Jansen.

 

There is no accountability in this org.

 

I’ll give them this offseason to make the change. The three fatties all had varying degrees of success up until this point. Then they all bottomed out. Let’s see if they can find the common denominator

[BTS]

Bellinger put up 9 fWAR to in his previous 2 seasons before going into a 2 year slump. Vlad isn't getting released tomorrow, but if his combined 2023/24 WAR is where Bellinger's was it's a possibility.

 

Some have mentioned his xwOBA is deceiving because he doesn't pull the ball in the air much anymore. His pull % seems OK, but I wonder if you crunched the data more you'd find some consistent pattern to explain the results. Like maybe his pull percentage is OK because he is pulling the ball hard on the ground, but all his fly balls are to center.

 

It reminds me of Kendry Morrales. He also ran an xOBA of almost .400 for a couple years before the Jays signed him, and there was talk they loved the batted ball data, but he still under-performed EE. In 2015-2019 their xwOBA was close but Kendry under-performed his by more than EE. Pattern held for several years.

 

Would you pay Kendry Morales 25 million?

 

If we're talking about what happens after 2024 if Vlad's 2024 looks a lot like his 2023, then yeah, he probably doesn't get a QO. But I don't think that's likely to happen given how hard he's hitting the ball. Every year of his career, Vlad's wOBA has been within 0.005 of his xwOBA - some years a hair higher, some years a hair lower. This year it's off by 0.55. He crushes the ball. He's probably not doing it in an ideal way, but you still can't expect someone to consistently hit the ball that hard and remain replacement level. I think if we're talking about the probability of possible outcomes for healthy Vlad in 2024 it would be something like:

 

10% - wOBA exceeds xwOBA or xwOBA close to wOBA but xwOBA goes up - MVP caliber season

70% - wOBA close to xwOBA, ~125-150 wRC+, sucks at everything else because he's out of shape, 2-4 win season

10% - wOBA and xwOBA both go down, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

10% - wOBA once again a lot less than xwOBA, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

[Captain_Obvious]

If we're talking about what happens after 2024 if Vlad's 2024 looks a lot like his 2023, then yeah, he probably doesn't get a QO. But I don't think that's likely to happen given how hard he's hitting the ball. Every year of his career, Vlad's wOBA has been within 0.005 of his xwOBA - some years a hair higher, some years a hair lower. This year it's off by 0.55. He crushes the ball. He's probably not doing it in an ideal way, but you still can't expect someone to consistently hit the ball that hard and remain replacement level. I think if we're talking about the probability of possible outcomes for healthy Vlad in 2024 it would be something like:

 

10% - wOBA exceeds xwOBA or xwOBA close to wOBA but xwOBA goes up - MVP caliber season

70% - wOBA close to xwOBA, ~125-150 wRC+, sucks at everything else because he's out of shape, 2-4 win season

10% - wOBA and xwOBA both go down, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

10% - wOBA once again a lot less than xwOBA, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

 

I am way less optimistic. Vlad has no self-awareness and is a pure clown. He probably thinks he is doing great and Jays management continue to coddle him.

[BigCecil]

I am way less optimistic. Vlad has no self-awareness and is a pure clown. He probably thinks he is doing great and Jays management continue to coddle him.

 

All I can say is his ML numbers and '21 expectations make his swing and base running decisions even more mind boggling at times.

 

0.2 WAR is just the reality for '23 so far, and most of his career thus far is closer to that, than it is to '21.

 

I cling to GB EV's and HR derby results to make myself feel better.

 

I mean everyone was fine with getting rid of LGJ because he was "only" a 1-2 ish WAR player with a year left. At this point in '23, for Varsho and Vlad, that number is an aspirational goal for them lol. I did not see that coming.

[John_Havok]

If we're talking about what happens after 2024 if Vlad's 2024 looks a lot like his 2023, then yeah, he probably doesn't get a QO. But I don't think that's likely to happen given how hard he's hitting the ball. Every year of his career, Vlad's wOBA has been within 0.005 of his xwOBA - some years a hair higher, some years a hair lower. This year it's off by 0.55. He crushes the ball. He's probably not doing it in an ideal way, but you still can't expect someone to consistently hit the ball that hard and remain replacement level. I think if we're talking about the probability of possible outcomes for healthy Vlad in 2024 it would be something like:

 

10% - wOBA exceeds xwOBA or xwOBA close to wOBA but xwOBA goes up - MVP caliber season

70% - wOBA close to xwOBA, ~125-150 wRC+, sucks at everything else because he's out of shape, 2-4 win season

10% - wOBA and xwOBA both go down, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

10% - wOBA once again a lot less than xwOBA, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

 

Vlad just needs to stop thinking, it's not his strong suit. To me, it looks like he's trying to think along with the pitcher instead of just being ready to swing at strikes. I have no idea if this is true, but it sure looks that way

[Olerud363]

If we're talking about what happens after 2024 if Vlad's 2024 looks a lot like his 2023, then yeah, he probably doesn't get a QO. But I don't think that's likely to happen given how hard he's hitting the ball. Every year of his career, Vlad's wOBA has been within 0.005 of his xwOBA - some years a hair higher, some years a hair lower. This year it's off by 0.55. He crushes the ball. He's probably not doing it in an ideal way, but you still can't expect someone to consistently hit the ball that hard and remain replacement level. I think if we're talking about the probability of possible outcomes for healthy Vlad in 2024 it would be something like:

 

10% - wOBA exceeds xwOBA or xwOBA close to wOBA but xwOBA goes up - MVP caliber season

70% - wOBA close to xwOBA, ~125-150 wRC+, sucks at everything else because he's out of shape, 2-4 win season

10% - wOBA and xwOBA both go down, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

10% - wOBA once again a lot less than xwOBA, sucks at everything else because he's out out shape, sub-2 win season

 

The thing I'm not getting about xwOBA is that Vlad is running a .390 this year, same as Juan Soto. He is also way ahead in xwOBA as compared to his 2019, 2020, and 2022.

 

On the other hand everything is the same as those years except his ground ball rate is a bit (but not way) lower.

 

How does Vlad and Juan Soto have the same xOBA when they both hit the ball hard, but one guy draws 150 walks and the other 50, one guy runs a .420 on base average hitting .270, and the other guy .335 hitting .270?

 

So intuitively the xOBA thing doesn't make sense. It is implying that Vlad is even with Soto, so should be hitting .330 or so to compensate for the 100 less walks. While Soto is hitting what he deserves to be (.270 or so).

 

Watching the games seems like his xOBA is too high because he only pulls ground balls, but not fly balls.

[Olerud363]

The thing I'm not getting about xwOBA is that Vlad is running a .390 this year, same as Juan Soto. He is also way ahead in xwOBA as compared to his 2019, 2020, and 2022.

 

On the other hand everything is the same as those years except his ground ball rate is a bit (but not way) lower.

 

How does Vlad and Juan Soto have the same xOBA when they both hit the ball hard, but one guy draws 150 walks and the other 50, one guy runs a .420 on base average hitting .270, and the other guy .335 hitting .270?

 

So intuitively the xOBA thing doesn't make sense. It is implying that Vlad is even with Soto, so should be hitting .330 or so to compensate for the 100 less walks. While Soto is hitting what he deserves to be (.270 or so).

 

Watching the games seems like his xOBA is too high because he only pulls ground balls, but not fly balls.

 

I thought the new higher walls might hurt him, because line drive homers would become singles at Rogers Center... however by memory I can only remember that happening once this year (that 9th inning against Atlanta), when other years Vlad line drive singles off the wall happened a few times.

 

Total 'low sample size' eye test here -- but Sundays game makes me think there is an issue with xOBA. Vlad hit a 385 foot fly ball out to center, a 410 foot 110 mph double to center, and a couple of other hard hit balls, probably had an awesome expected oba, and had a .250 on base and .500 slugging on one of his best days.

 

This could be just stupid thinking because maybe all these balls to centerfield are a fluke or something and it will start evening out, but game after game now almost August it sure doesn't seem like it is going to change.

[John_Havok]

The thing I'm not getting about xwOBA is that Vlad is running a .390 this year, same as Juan Soto. He is also way ahead in xwOBA as compared to his 2019, 2020, and 2022.

 

On the other hand everything is the same as those years except his ground ball rate is a bit (but not way) lower.

 

How does Vlad and Juan Soto have the same xOBA when they both hit the ball hard, but one guy draws 150 walks and the other 50, one guy runs a .420 on base average hitting .270, and the other guy .335 hitting .270?

 

So intuitively the xOBA thing doesn't make sense. It is implying that Vlad is even with Soto, so should be hitting .330 or so to compensate for the 100 less walks. While Soto is hitting what he deserves to be (.270 or so).

 

Watching the games seems like his xOBA is too high because he only pulls ground balls, but not fly balls.

 

xwOBA, not xOBA

 

You're adding in spray angle to your perception of what xwOBA should be. xwOBA doesnt do that because doing so more decribes the play, not the player.

[Olerud363]

xwOBA, not xOBA

 

You're adding in spray angle to your perception of what xwOBA should be. xwOBA doesnt do that because doing so more decribes the play, not the player.

 

I'm not adding anything into my perception of what xwOBA should be. Tango is an insightful guy and realized right away this board is constantly answering questions that were not asked.

 

I asked why Vlad and Soto have almost the same xwOBA when Soto has 100 more walks. Also asked why Vlad 2022 has a much higher xwOBA then 2019,20 and 22 when his hard hit rates are similar (ground ball rate is a bit lower than 2019/20, 22 but not extreme lower).

 

If spray was included that could explain the above... however only explanation I see is Vlad is hitting the ball much harder and at better angles than 2023 Soto, or 2019, 20, and 22 Vlad. That could be true, but doesn't seem the case by the eye test.

[Olerud363]

xwOBA, not xOBA

 

You're adding in spray angle to your perception of what xwOBA should be. xwOBA doesnt do that because doing so more decribes the play, not the player.

 

I remember a few years ago most people on the board thought that Vlad can't really control hitting so many fly balls to center and that would even out, but in some discussions a few weeks ago I sensed that view was changing, and spray rate to center is a thing...

 

It's a subtle point. Of course there are pull hitters and guys who hit to all fields, but is there a 'center field' hitter? Like a guy who hits a disportionate number of fly balls to center field, and fewer near the lines (not saying there is or isn't but if this could explain Vlad).

[John_Havok]

Simple answer to your question that you're overthinking by still talking about spray angle.

 

If Soto walks that much more, he's putting far fewer balls in play than Vlad is.

 

All those extra murdered baseball that Vlad is putting into play vs the fewer walks is making up that difference in xwOBA. Vlad has 54 more balls in play than Soto. Walks only get you 1 base. 54 balls in play at those elite velos are probably worth about the same in xwOBA as 100 walks.

 

Elite walk rates though would make an xwOBA fluctuate less and be closer to actual wOBA though.

 

And yes, Tom was answering questions that werent being asked, because people were asking questions (myself included) that were not actually asking the questions designed to get the answers we thought we were looking for. He provided the alternate viewpoint and provided the real answer, not the answer to the wrong question.

[Olerud363]

Simple answer to your question that you're overthinking by still talking about spray angle.

 

If Soto walks that much more, he's putting far fewer balls in play than Vlad is.

 

All those extra murdered baseball that Vlad is putting into play vs the fewer walks is making up that difference in xwOBA. Vlad has 54 more balls in play than Soto. Walks only get you 1 base. 54 balls in play at those elite velos are probably worth about the same in xwOBA as 100 walks.

 

Elite walk rates though would make an xwOBA fluctuate less and be closer to actual wOBA though.

 

And yes, Tom was answering questions that werent being asked, because people were asking questions (myself included) that were not actually asking the questions designed to get the answers we thought we were looking for. He provided the alternate viewpoint and provided the real answer, not the answer to the wrong question.

 

I'm not overthinking anything. Again haven't even got into spray angle too much, other than to wonder if it is repeatable and could explain the pattern.

 

54 balls in play are not worth as much as 100 walks. If that was true we'd see way more walks and intentional walks.

 

When not walking Soto is a better hitter anyway (lifetime, .280 with .521 slugging). So you are saying Soto should try to put more balls in play and walk less? That makes no sense. Even if you converted his 100 extra walks to non-walk outcomes (80 balls in play and 20 ks) at the same rate as his lifetime averages he'd still hit .280 just with a much lower on base percentage. So

 

And in fact Vlad and Soto's wOBA and xwOBA are consistent for their careers just not this year. If you trust xwOBA Vlad is getting unlucky and Soto a bit lucky this year. It's not that the 100 walks are worth more than 50 balls in play, it's that Vlad should have a .550 slugging based on how hard he is hitting the ball, but is at .450 instead.

 

We all agree that xwOBA doesn't include spray angle, it's not overthinking to ask if a more advanced stat that does include it should be developed. It would only be worth it to do that if spray angle on different types of batted balls is a reproducible stat.

 

And if you look at how the shifts were (are) done (often shift to pull in infield, straight away or opp-o for fly balls) it's obvious that fly balls are sprayed differently than ground balls for everyone.

 

Then the next question is what is the fly ball spray trend compared to ground ball spray trend for Vlad? Is the trend repeatable?

 

And you can answer a question without accusing people of overthinking. Just say 'Vlad has hit ___ percentage of his fly balls to center this year, but that trend is likely not repeatable, and he will regress to hitting ___ fly balls to center", or "Vlad does not hit an unussual number of fly balls to center", or "I don't know", or "I do know but have signed an NDA with the Cincinnati Reds (I consult for them) so can't answer".

[Olerud363]

I said this in the game thread but will put here simply because when the rise and fall of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is studied by baseball historians this thread will be a key document. This thread, while annoying to many, has many hard truths (thus why it is so annoying, the truth hurts).

 

Forget mechanics, maturity, mental state, wrist injury, spray angle and launch angle the hard truth is this...

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not have elite pitch recognition thus will never be an elite player on a consistent basis.

 

This should be obvious watching him compared to Soto in the San Diego series. If not obvious then it should be obvious watching a couple of at bats this series.

 

Two times he has gotten totally fooled by breaking stuff a foot outside and almost in the dirt. Most players, even good players get fooled like this once and a while. But guys with elite pitch recognition, Soto, Bonds, Judge don't get fooled like this I don't think. Even Judge who strikes out a lot is mostly (like Belt actually) striking out by taking strikes he doesn't like and humongous rips at good pitches. Elite hitters don't swing at some of the crap Vlad does. (good hitters/good players do and Vlad is (I guess) a 'good' hitter, for a hitter, but not an elite hitter, which he needs to be given his defense and base running).

[Laika]

I said this in the game thread but will put here simply because when the rise and fall of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is studied by baseball historians this thread will be a key document. This thread, while annoying to many, has many hard truths (thus why it is so annoying, the truth hurts).

 

Forget mechanics, maturity, mental state, wrist injury, spray angle and launch angle the hard truth is this...

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not have elite pitch recognition thus will never be an elite player on a consistent basis.

 

This should be obvious watching him compared to Soto in the San Diego series. If not obvious then it should be obvious watching a couple of at bats this series.

 

Two times he has gotten totally fooled by breaking stuff a foot outside and almost in the dirt. Most players, even good players get fooled like this once and a while. But guys with elite pitch recognition, Soto, Bonds, Judge don't get fooled like this I don't think. Even Judge who strikes out a lot is mostly (like Belt actually) striking out by taking strikes he doesn't like and humongous rips at good pitches. Elite hitters don't swing at some of the crap Vlad does. (good hitters/good players do and Vlad is (I guess) a 'good' hitter, for a hitter, but not an elite hitter, which he needs to be given his defense and base running).

 

Great hit tool

Mediocre pitch recognition

 

The annoying thing is that at time his pitch recognition has seemed better. But, swing decisions have always been one of his issues.

[metafour]

Great hit tool

Mediocre pitch recognition

 

The annoying thing is that at time his pitch recognition has seemed better. But, swing decisions have always been one of his issues.

 

There is more to this than just pitch recognition. I'm seeing him routinely missing completely hittable pitches down the heart of the plate. So the "hit tool" has declined significantly as well. I have no idea what happened to him because hit tool and pitch recognition were not issues for him as a prospect. He just looks like a completely forgettable hitter in every regard. It is infuriating that of course the one "generational talent" out of the pool league-wide who ends up completely tanking is the one who the Jays control.

[Omar]

Great hit tool

Mediocre pitch recognition

 

The annoying thing is that at time his pitch recognition has seemed better. But, swing decisions have always been one of his issues.

 

What if it is the third option.

 

great hit tool with great pitch recognition

 

but too dumb to come to grips that he isn’t his father and can’t barrel up pitches out of the zone. I’ve been saying this for two seasons now: he has a hero complex and thinks he is a better hitter than he actually is because he was able to skate through lower levels without effort on his part. The competition level has caught up and surpassed his delusion.

 

Vlad Sr > Vlad Jr

Edited August 3, 2023 by Omar

[metafour]

This past at-bat: swings through a completely hittable FB, fouls off a few pitches, then singles after getting jammed on a FB right down the middle of the plate. There's just no authority to his swing.

[Stangstag]

This past at-bat: swings through a completely hittable FB, fouls off a few pitches, then singles after getting jammed on a FB right down the middle of the plate. There's just no authority to his swing.

 

That first pitch needs to be hammered.

[Terminator]

Could Vlad's shortcomings be fixed with a simple change in approach? What if he just crowded the plate more and pulled dat ball? I'm sure it's easier said than done.

[Stangstag]

Could Vlad's shortcomings be fixed with a simple change in approach? What if he just crowded the plate more and pulled dat ball? I'm sure it's easier said than done.

 

Pete Rose said the easiest adjustments to make and see immediate results:

 

Move up in the box, move back in the box

Move closer to the plate, move further from the plate

Choke up on the bat, choke down on the bat

 

Depending on the situation and what the pitcher is trying to do to you. IDK if Vlad is smart enough to make these adjustments game to game

[hanton]

Pete Rose said the easiest adjustments to make and see immediate results:

 

Move up in the box, move back in the box

Move closer to the plate, move further from the plate

Choke up on the bat, choke down on the bat

 

Depending on the situation and what the pitcher is trying to do to you. IDK if Vlad is smart enough to make these adjustments game to game

 

different times, I doubt it has anything to do with smarts. Hitting is complicated and it's why some teams have started using external resources, outfits that specialize in biomechanics.

[max silver]

different times, I doubt it has anything to do with smarts. Hitting is complicated and it's why some teams have started using external resources, outfits that specialize in biomechanics.

 

Just imagine if Vlad spend an offseason working at somewhere like Driveline. He is one of baseball's most physically gifted hitters and something like this could be the key to unlocking all of that potential for good.

[Spanky99]

Just imagine if Vlad spend an offseason working at somewhere like Driveline. He is one of baseball's most physically gifted hitters and something like this could be the key to unlocking all of that potential for good.

 

He has it at his fingertips in Dunedin?

 

Baseball is hard folks... remember that.

[hanton]

Just imagine if Vlad spend an offseason working at somewhere like Driveline. He is one of baseball's most physically gifted hitters and something like this could be the key to unlocking all of that potential for good.

 

He is a gifted hitter.

 

A place like Driveline wasn't around when his father played so he had to figure things out on his own - there's no need for that anymore. Vlady's swing needs to be changed so it's more swing plane oriented, this will allow him to get the ball up in the air. The problem is obvious, too many ground balls - this is something Driveline can fix.

[max silver]

He has it at his fingertips in Dunedin?

 

Baseball is hard folks... remember that.

 

I'm not entirely convinced the Jays hitting lab has reached the same level as more established outfits like Driveline as we really haven't seen a lot of big time success stories yet.