MLB 2021 Draft

[metafour]

Thanks Slade!

 

The Jay Allen connection keeps coming up, and in general there has been much more consistent connection to HS players across the board over recent mock drafts.

[metafour]

Keith Law also released a mock draft yesterday:

 

https://theathletic.com/2669873/2021/06/24/2021-mlb-mock-draft-2-0-jack-leiter-to-tigers-pirates-take-a-high-school-shortstop-in-keith-laws-latest-look/

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (FL) HS

 

The Jays were heavy on Allen during the state’s all-star game late in the year when their scouts were also able to see Florida’s Tommy Mace (who had one of his worst outings).

[Spanky99]

Keith Law's Mock...

 

By Keith Law Jun 24, 2021 120

We’re now two and a half weeks from Draft Day … and there’s a lot of sitting around happening. The players are mostly done playing, aside from a few heading to events like the USA Baseball Combine and Program 15’s Future Stars series. Some teams have shifted amateur scouts, if they still have them, to pro coverage or to head to the Cape or elsewhere to start looking at the 2022 draft. (It looks better than this year’s because next year’s draft class always looks better than this year’s — until you look closer at it.)

 

As always, this is a projection of who I think might go in the top 30 picks if the draft were held today. It’s based on the best information I have from industry sources, although at this point, there isn’t a ton that’s new on that front from last time, and my own deductions based on teams’ draft strategies and track records. It is not a ranking of these players. I’ll update this at least once more and probably twice before the draft itself begins on July 11.

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) HS

I’ve heard the Pirates are only on position players at this point, so it’s Mayer, Jordan Lawlar or Henry Davis, and I suppose some tiny chance of Kahlil Watson on a deal. Mayer seems like the safest bet to go first of the three, as there’s the least disagreement on his upside.

 

2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX)

Texas has obviously seen Lawlar, whose high school is less than half an hour from the Rangers’ ballpark, a ton, so there’s a sense they’re highest on him, but they’ve also been linked to both Vandy arms.

 

3. Detroit Tigers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

Detroit is supposed to covet Mayer, and they’re the first team linked to Jackson Jobe, but they were in heavy at the super regionals to see Leiter and might feel some pressure to take a college player who’ll get there in time to line up with their current wave of prospects, including the trio of hitting prospects in Double A.

 

4. Boston Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

The Red Sox are a huge inflection point in this draft, as they seem to be on the main three college names in Leiter, Rocker and Davis, and now are likely to have a choice of at least two of them.

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

Everyone expects Baltimore to take a position player here and go well under slot so they can go over slot with later picks, as they select again at 41, 65 and 76. They’ve been linked to Harry Ford and Brady House, but it doesn’t seem like either is all that likely to accept a big discount, while Cowser’s market after this probably doesn’t start till pick 9.

 

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS

Watson probably doesn’t get past here unless all hell breaks loose in the top five and, say, Lawlar slips to 6. Watson’s delayed season — North Carolina didn’t begin its high school baseball schedule until the last week of April — has helped him a ton, as he was often the best or only guy to see for a midweek game in the last month.

 

7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The market for Rocker is weirdly specific — it’s Texas, Boston, KC and Washington, with the Mets a possibility, too. The Royals have also been heavy on House and are naturally linked to Jobe since he’s sort of local, although they haven’t taken a high school pitcher in the first round since they took Ashe Russell in 2015.

 

8. Colorado Rockies: Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow (GA) HS

House is a pretty typical Colorado player — big, athletic, powerful, with some swing and miss questions. I’ve also heard them linked to Jobe, and I wonder if they’d push for a college arm (Bachman? Madden?) here.

 

9. Los Angeles Angels: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

McLain broke his thumb, missed only about three and a half weeks, and went 11-for-27 (.407) with six doubles after his return, which is kind of impressive for a guy with only nine healthy fingers. Everyone seems to think the Angels will go college — Cowser’s market might start here — although I don’t think new GM Perry Minasian is averse to taking high school players.

 

10. New York Mets: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)

Bachman missed two starts in the spring with a sore shoulder but was electric after he returned, so his stock is a function of what the doctors say — he’s a top-10 talent on stuff but could easily slip out of the first round if teams are scared of his medicals. I think the Mets would love McLain or maybe Cowser, would at least consider going over slot for Rocker, and I’ve heard Colson Montgomery here.

 

11. Washington Nationals: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) HS

Everyone assumes that this is Rocker’s floor. I don’t think the Nats would take any high school pitcher here other than Jobe. If both he and Rocker are gone, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Madden or Bachman or another hard-throwing college pitcher.

 

12. Seattle Mariners: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

Madden has his adherents despite the heavy workload and lack of a third pitch, and he did throw well down the stretch. Everyone expects Seattle to take a college guy, with Cowser mentioned often too.

 

13. Philadelphia Phillies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) HS

I admit this is an uninspiring name for the mock, especially since I had the Phils taking him last time as well, but I hear these two connected quite often — possibly because he plays about two hours from Philly.

 

14. San Francisco Giants: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

Frelick got off to a huge start, with five homers in the first month, but hit just one in his last 30 games, which cooled off talk of him coming into power. He has the defensive chops to play center or right in San Francisco, however.

 

15. Milwaukee Brewers: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) HS

The Brewers have scouted Ford pretty heavily this spring, although it’s unknown if they’d keep him at catcher or take advantage of his athleticism at another position.

 

16. Miami Marlins: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee (GA) HS

Would the Marlins let Chandler, one of the draft’s best athletes, develop as a pitcher and position player? Miami has gone with college players in the first round in the last two years, but high school guys after that.

 

17. Cincinnati Reds: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (NY)

Mack’s season started late, but he’s made up for lost time, taking advantage of scouts having fewer players to see in the south and west. He’s catching and hitting better this spring while still showing big power. The Reds are also linked to Chandler and Fordham lefty Matt Mikulski, and with two more picks at 30 and 37 may try to go under slot here and go big at the later selections.

 

18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

I could see the Cardinals going in a lot of directions — they are the high mark for prep outfielder Jay Allen, one of the only teams linked to Stanford commit Braden Montgomery, and might also be on Mississippi State right-hander Will Bednar, who has shown one of the better sliders in the draft. Or maybe none of these.

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (FL) HS

The Jays were heavy on Allen during the state’s all-star game late in the year when their scouts were also able to see Florida’s Tommy Mace (who had one of his worst outings).

 

20. New York Yankees: Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham

It would be poetic, certainly, since Mikulski plays just six stops on the D train from Yankee Stadium, although you don’t get extra points for taking the local guy. I’ve also heard them with Benny Montgomery, and they’re one of the teams rumored to be considering Gunnar Hoglund after his Tommy John surgery. I could also see them taking Will Bednar, whose slider and fastball grade out well for teams that emphasize Statcast-style data in their models.

 

21. Chicago Cubs: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (SC)

Nothing new here — which includes nothing new from Taylor, who still hasn’t indicated to scouts whether he plans to play baseball or play football for Dabo Swinney at Clemson. If he’s willing to sign, he could go higher than this, maybe to St. Louis or Philly.

 

22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, IF, Southridge (IN) HS

The White Sox come up the most around Montgomery’s name, while they’ve also been linked to Chase Petty and Isaac Pacheco, whom they were on heavily late in his season.

 

23. Cleveland: Mike McGreevy, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara

Cleveland’s shift away from traditional scouting and towards a more model-based approach will favor high performers like McGreevy and very young players like Joshua Baez; they might be the only team in the first round that would gamble on Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, whose miserable year left him third in the SEC in strikeouts.

 

24. Atlanta: Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP/SS, Nebraska

Nothing much new here. They’re expected to go college, but that could be one of the college bats fighting to get into the back of the round, like a Tyler Black or Connor Norby.

 

25. Oakland Athletics: Tyler Black, 2B/3B, Wright State

Black made the most of a few opportunities against better pitching before laying waste to the Horizon League. Where Oakland’s picking, they seem likely to go for value rather than for pure ceiling.

 

26. Minnesota Twins: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois

Sweeney beat up on awful competition this year, but he’s 6’4″ with a good swing and has attracted some attention from teams that focus heavily on performance, as the Twins do.

 

27. San Diego Padres: Anthony Solometo, RHP, Bishop Eustace (NJ) HS

The Padres are one of the few teams down in this range of the round who are more likely to go for big upside, before we get to the comp round and teams start picking off the big high school prospects who’ve dropped. I could also see Jay Allen here or someone like Taylor or Chandler if they slid.

 

28. Tampa Bay Rays: Ryan Bliss, SS, Auburn

I had them with Arizona infielder Wes Kath last time around, and that could still happen. Bliss is one of the most underrated prospects in this draft, in my view, after raking in the SEC all year and showing good range at short even while playing part of the year with a sore hamstring.

 

29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

I mean, they’ve done it before (Walker Buehler, Michael Grove) and this year there are at least three top 100 prospects — Hoglund, Jaden Hill and Mo Hanley — who have already undergone Tommy John surgery and would be ripe for the Dodgers to take somewhere on Day 1.

 

30. Cincinnati Reds: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) HS

I expect the Reds to go big here, and Painter, one of the best high school pitchers in the class, would qualify, as would Chase Petty or Josh Baez.

[TheHurl]

BA mock is out. Sorry if this was posted already.

 

Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.RHP

Notes:

We’ve heard the Blue Jays tied to two of the better high school players in Florida recently, in Painter and Jay Allen. Painter’s range seems quite wide, which is common for prep righthanders, but the Blue Jays sound like a team that has invested a lot of looks into him. This could be a nice addition to a farm system that has one of the best collections of bats in baseball. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Toronto add yet another catcher to that farm system either, with Ford or Joe Mack.

[TwistedLogic]

MLB Draft Combine is live.

 

Dan O'Dowd just said that, as a GM, he walked out of prospect interviews and ruled out drafting them because their life experiences didn't match their culture.

 

lmao.

[TwistedLogic]

Man, I rewound to the start of the Combine stream and this Alex Binelas kid has a gorgeous swing with some really loud pop.

 

He's ranked #64 on MLB.com but I'm reading his scouting report and it looks like he's rated as low as he is because of a lack of a defensive profile.

 

I really like everything else I'm reading on this kid and I'm hoping he's in play for the Jays second round pick.

 

[TwistedLogic]

Actually, I'm looking at some older lists and Binelas used to be ranked top 10 so I'm highly doubting he'll drop low enough for the Jays to grab him in the second round. I'm sure at least a few front offices out there still internally rate him higher than his stock has dropped on public lists.

[Spanky99]

MLB Draft Combine is live.

 

Dan O'Dowd just said that, as a GM, he walked out of prospect interviews and ruled out drafting them because their life experiences didn't match their culture.

 

lmao.

 

Sadly it's true, but makeup is really a tough thing to read when they are so young.

[InsideThePark]

Man, I rewound to the start of the Combine stream and this Alex Binelas kid has a gorgeous swing with some really loud pop.

 

He's ranked #64 on MLB.com but I'm reading his scouting report and it looks like he's rated as low as he is because of a lack of a defensive profile.

 

I really like everything else I'm reading on this kid and I'm hoping he's in play for the Jays second round pick.

 

 

Jays don't have a 2nd round pick because they signed Springer. They pick 19th and then 91st because symmerty.

[TwistedLogic]

Jays don't have a 2nd round pick because they signed Springer. They pick 19th and then 91st because symmerty.

 

Ugh, I forgot about that lol.

[TheHurl]

There are going to be some steals on College bats in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

[Scion]

MLB Draft Combine is live.

 

Dan O'Dowd just said that, as a GM, he walked out of prospect interviews and ruled out drafting them because their life experiences didn't match their culture.

 

lmao.

 

What is funny about that? I'm willing to bet there are some kids you wouldn't want to invest in either because they are f*** heads. Dan just phrased it nicer.

[Spanky99]

What is funny about that? I'm willing to bet there are some kids you wouldn't want to invest in either because they are f*** heads. Dan just phrased it nicer.

 

Agreed, makeup has guys drop all the time.

[G-Snarls]

Ben Cherington was just on MLB Network

 

They've narrowed down the players they're considering "into the single digits"

 

He hasn't gone to see any of the players the Pirates might draft #1

 

He went to the combine and met a lot of them there

 

Trade calls have picked up the last two weeks, at the same time as usual even with the later draft

[TwistedLogic]

He hasn't gone to see any of the players the Pirates might draft #1

 

I don't get it. The Pirates GM didn't go to see any of the players his team might draft first overall?

 

And they've just narrowed the players they're considering down into the single digits? So they're still considering 8 or 9 guys for #1 overall?

[G-Snarls]

I don't get it. The Pirates GM didn't go to see any of the players his team might draft first overall?

 

And they've just narrowed the players they're considering down into the single digits? So they're still considering 8 or 9 guys for #1 overall?

 

Yeah. On point number one it seemed odd. He said if he couldn't go see all the players they were consdering with the number 1 pick he didn't want to go see one or two and bias the scouting departments decision.

 

As for second point is it fair to say the top of the draft class is pretty close this year?

[metafour]

[Slade]

Has that Mason Mcrae guy been right about anything? He always throws out speculation and deletes his tweets later.

 

I remember last year or the year before he had tweets about how much Shapiro loved Owen Cassie or Calabrese and told staff to make sure they get him. Then later deleted his tweet.

[King]

Has that Mason Mcrae guy been right about anything? He always throws out speculation and deletes his tweets later.

 

I remember last year or the year before he had tweets about how much Shapiro loved Owen Cassie or Calabrese and told staff to make sure they get him. Then later deleted his tweet.

 

He's just a glorified superfan with some inside connections to an unknown college baseball analytics staff.

[Laika]

Has that Mason Mcrae guy been right about anything? He always throws out speculation and deletes his tweets later.

 

I remember last year or the year before he had tweets about how much Shapiro loved Owen Cassie or Calabrese and told staff to make sure they get him. Then later deleted his tweet.

 

No, he's a total f***ing LARPer. It's all pretend.

 

I mean he follows college ball in detail but his predictions suck, his analysis is worse than bad, and I doubt he has any connections.

 

He had so many tweets hating on Alek Manoah a while ago. All deleted now, no doubt.

[BlueRocky]

To be fair I did hear the rumor with Anthony Solometo being scouted by the Jays. A little bit surprising if they reach a bit for a prep arm in a deep class year without a 2nd round pick.

 

His scouting reports are pretty glowing as one of the top prep lefties in the class. But I think there are potentially better options at #19.

 

28 –

Last: 28

Anthony Solometo

Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, N.J.

LHP

VIDEO

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: North Carolina

Age At Draft: 18.6

RapScore: 50

 

BA Grade: 55 | Risk: Extreme

Fastball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55

 

Solometo has continued to build his stock from last summer, growing from a promising lefty with a funky delivery into one of the top prep arms in the country. He starts his delivery with a big leg kick leading into a long, deep arm swing in the back reminiscent of Madison Bumgarner's arm action. That delivery adds deception and makes for uncomfortable at-bats, but all those long, moving parts also gave several scouts hesitancy about his ability to repeat and throw strikes consistently. However, Solometo performed well last summer, stamped by an outstanding showing at the Future Stars Series at Fenway Park in September. He continued to show command of both his fastball and slider this spring, though there have been outings where his control backed up and he missed to his arm side. His fastball sits around 89-93 mph with arm-side life and he has the ability to reach back for 96 when he needs an extra gear. He consistently gets ahead of hitters, throwing strikes with his fastball to both sides of the plate. His low-80s slider is a plus pitch at times and Solometo is adept at executing it down in the zone, comfortably throwing it to the back foot of righthanded hitters or landing it to his arm side. Solometo doesn't throw his changeup much and it's hit or miss, but he has shown some feel for that pitch too. Solometo doesn't have the same fastball or athleticism as fellow New Jersey prep pitcher Chase Petty, but he's a lefty who throws more strikes with a less stressful delivery, so some scouts prefer Solometo. His combination of stuff, pitchability and track record should make him one of the first high school pitchers off the board.

[metafour]

To be fair I did hear the rumor with Anthony Solometo being scouted by the Jays.

 

Callis and Mayo over at MLB.com have been pumping Solometo to the Jays in their last few mocks and the recent Prospects Live mock also mentioned it as a very strong (and growing) connection. It definitely seems to have wheels at this point, but of course, at #19 they can go in so many directions depending on what happens in front of them that even a "strong connection" can be nullified in an instant.

 

A little bit surprising if they reach a bit for a prep arm in a deep class year without a 2nd round pick.

 

One of the comments I remember seeing from Callis was that scouts were struggling to find 29 "first round talents" this year, and we kind of pick in the range where things get extremely jumbled. For example, MLB.com has Solometo 17th - whereas BA has him 28th. Most of the players in that range past even 12-15 seem to be highly variable depending on who you're asking and what their preference is. There may be some decent depth, but there definitely doesn't seem to be a set order in terms of the first 19 picks - which means that it makes sense to try to save some money while also taking a high-upside player you like. I'm not sure if Solometo would save any money like Mason McRae suggests, but that does seem to make sense for someone like him considering the expected randomness after our pick wherein the next team up for him might be the Padres who are also apparently high on him, but pick 27th. They've used this strategy before with the Groshans pick. If you feel really strongly about a HS kid who also saves you money, then it's a major win-win if you actually hit on that pick, especially with no 2nd round pick for us.

[metafour]

New Fangraphs mock draft:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0-3/

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL)

 

Sources told us Allen was in for a private workout and he starts getting mentioned consistently in this range of the first round.

[metafour]

Kiley McDaniel just updated his Top 200 rankings and he has an interesting name all the way up at #16:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31770656/kiley-mcdaniel-final-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-top-200-prospects

 

 

16. Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State

 

My pick to click is a late-blooming, mid-major, Canadian second baseman with a spotless track record and power potential. Get on the bandwagon while you still can.

 

 

And a few potential Jays targets:

 

 

18. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL) (Florida commit)

Basically everything Painter (great name for a pitcher) does grades as a 55 or 60, and the frame, delivery and feel all check out. You only pause because prep righties are all terrifying.

 

25. Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL) (Florida commit)

 

Accomplished prep QB has chosen baseball and offers above-average tools and strong performance.

 

35. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep HS (NJ) (North Carolina commit)

 

Big lefty competes and has been as high as 98 mph from a funky long arm action, pitches with more 55-grade stuff.

 

37. Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY) (Clemson commit)

 

Mack had an uneven spring, but for a couple summers, he has shown a solid glove and bat, with standout lefty plus power as a separator.

[Ray]

I inevitably will be okay with whoever they end up picking (I think this front office has earned that after their success with past drafts).

 

I reallllllly want to stay away from Jud Fabian however. Seems like Jeren Kendall all over again.

[BlueRocky]

I’m also on the stay away from Fabian train.

 

Possible names at our range.. long list and huge volatility with some of these guys.

 

College Pitching: Bednar, Hoglund, Hill, McGreevy, G Williams, Cusick

College Bat: Wilson, Del Castillo, Fabian, Morissette

 

Prep Pitching: Painter, Chandler, Solometo, Petty, Mozicatto, Burns

Prep Bat: Ford, Taylor, Mack, Allen, Montgomery, Baez, Wood, Stovall, White jr, Pacheco, Muncy, C Williams

 

 

Guys probably out of our reach: Frelick, McLain, Cowser, Madden, Bachman, Wicks

 

A couple two-way players in the top 50 and a couple multi-sport athletes, it’s gonna be a weird class.

 

Draft starts on sunday.

Edited July 9, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Ray]

Note that we're missing our 2nd round pick due to signing Springer. So our overall bonus pool will be lower as well (I think 2nd or 3rd lowest in the MLB)

[Krylian]

Note that we're missing our 2nd round pick due to signing Springer. So our overall bonus pool will be lower as well (I think 2nd or 3rd lowest in the MLB)

 

MLB needs to get their act together and start allowing all draft picks to be tradable, like in every other sport.

[Deadpool]

MLB needs to get their act together and start allowing all draft picks to be tradable, like in every other sport.

 

That's great, until we have another JP Ricciardi at the helm and he trades 5 years worth of 1st round picks for Brad Mench...

[RustyTrombone]

That's great, until we have another JP Ricciardi at the helm and he trades 5 years worth of 1st round picks for Brad Mench...

 

Ill never forgive that bastard for breaking Doc's leg in '05 costing him the CY.