MLB 2021 Draft

[Krylian]

That's great, until we have another JP Ricciardi at the helm and he trades 5 years worth of 1st round picks for Brad Mench...

 

Hopefully we'll have the GM that scoops up the 5 first rounders for Menchie.

[Daniel Labude]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-jud-fabian-cut-down-on-strikeouts-built-confidence-ahead-of-2021-mlb-draft/

[metafour]

Kiley McDaniel mock draft 3.0 - with some rumored players after the 1st round as well.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31782968/2021-mlb-mock-draft-30-kiley-mcdaniel-predicts-first-two-rounds

 

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Jay Allen, CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (FL), Florida commit

 

The Jays are tied most to Allen, Trey Sweeney, Ryan Cusick and Jud Fabian at this pick, with Tyler Black also mentioned and Thatcher Hurd and Hunter Parks among their targets with a later pick as well.

 

Thatcher Hurd is a HS RHP (#68 overall on Kiley's ranking), Hunter Parks is a JUCO RHP.

[Ray]

Keith Laws mock released today has us taking Jay Allen too.

[metafour]

Keith Laws mock released today has us taking Jay Allen too.

 

Can you post the writeup?

[Laika]

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) HS

 

2. Texas Rangers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

3. Detroit Tigers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

4. Boston Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS

 

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep of Dallas

 

7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) HS

 

8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) HS

 

9. Los Angeles Angels: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (S.C.) HS

 

10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

 

11. Washington Nationals: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) HS

 

12. Seattle Mariners: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

 

13. Philadelphia Phillies: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

 

14. San Francisco Giants: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

 

15. Milwaukee Brewers: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) HS

 

16. Miami Marlins: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS/QB, North Oconee (GA) HS

 

17. Cincinnati Reds: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (NY) HS

 

18. St. Louis Cardinals: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (FL) High

The Blue Jays have been linked to Allen for a while now, having scouted him heavily during the state all-star tournament at the end of the spring. I’d heard them earlier on Florida senior Tommy Mace, but Mace wasn’t good later in the spring, and the Blue Jays don’t have a second-round pick (for signing George Springer) so going under slot here makes little sense; it’s far more likely they’d just go slot on someone like Tyler Black or Connor Norby than try to save some cash.

[InvincibleTiger]

Who are your top 3 realistic targets?

[Spanky99]

Can you post the writeup?

 

Sure...

 

Keith Law 7h ago 93

The draft is about 60 hours away now, so here is my third mock draft, covering the first round (plus one!), what I’m calling my pseudo-final mock because I will update this if and when I hear anything that changes what I’ve written here. There are a lot of rumors now, more than there were even two days ago, but very little certainty — even people with teams drafting in the single digits say they don’t know who’s going ahead of them, all the way up to the first overall pick.

 

As always, this is my best guess at how the top 30 picks might unfold, based on the information I’ve been able to gather so far and my understanding of how certain teams and scouting directors like to draft. My actual opinions of players don’t come into it. I’ll also update my Big Board one last time before the draft.

 

Teams may also “overdraft” players to sign them for bonuses under the MLB slot recommendations, which allows those teams to then go over slot with later picks for other players. The Astros did this in 2012, signing Carlos Correa to a heavily discounted deal (that looks even worse for the player and better for the club in hindsight) which allowed them to sign Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz with later picks.

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) HS

It’s Mayer! It’s Henry Davis! It’s Jack Leiter! The Pirates might know who they’re taking — or they might like multiple players and instead try to spread their money around a bit, going a little under slot here (Davis probably being the ideal player for that) so they can go over slot at No. 37 and nab another first-round talent. I don’t think there’s a wrong choice, but if I’m betting, it’s 80 percent that it’s one of the three guys I mentioned, maybe 90 percent that they’re taking a position player. I’m not sure if I’d take Mayer or Davis, personally, and letting the decision come down to money may be the most rational approach.

 

2. Texas Rangers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The Rangers might have more players still in their decision set — again, if you listen to the teams behind them — than the Pirates do, including all three high school shortstops, both Vandy pitchers, and Davis. They’re certainly Kumar Rocker’s best hope up here; if he doesn’t go at 2, his landing spots are probably 4, 7 and then 10/11 as a floor. GM Chris Young did see the Vandy boys in their regional (I feel like Young has a serious disadvantage when he goes to scout players, since he can’t exactly hide in the crowd), while some teams assume they’ll take Lawlar because he’s a local kid and the team has ties to him through his advisor, Vernon Wells, himself a former first-round pick out of a Texas high school.

 

I think the pendulum on Rocker may have swung too far the other way. He was never the slam dunk 1-1 guy some people assumed he was after his freshman year, but he has few equals in this draft for size, stuff, and athleticism, and he’s been a GUY for four years now. There were critics of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in their draft years for lack of command; Verlander walked too many guys, Cole’s fastball was hit too hard, and so on. I have my own concerns on Rocker dealing with on-field adversity from when I’ve seen him, but I also saw Gerrit Cole show up his own infielder after a missed groundball as a freshman at UCLA. Guys get better in pro ball. They grow up, too. I wouldn’t take Rocker at 1, or even at 2, but I’m not arguing with any team that thinks he should go there, either.

 

3. Detroit Tigers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

So Brady House apparently had a great workout in Detroit — unsurprising, as he looks like he was made to excel in workouts — and they’ve supposedly wanted Mayer all spring, but with nearly all of the top talent in their system in Double A or the majors, Leiter fits better with their current timetable.

 

4. Boston Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

The Red Sox seem to be on the three main college guys — Leiter, Davis and Rocker. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those three taken here. Davis did have an impressive workout for the Red Sox last week, and he’s probably the safest of that group.

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS

Yes, the Orioles are the team most likely to try to do something under slot here — I’ve mentioned Colton Cowser and Harry Ford here before. They could surprise with someone else too, but I really don’t think it’s going to be a pitcher.

 

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep of Dallas

I’ll offer this prediction as well: If Lawlar doesn’t go in the first six picks, he goes to Vanderbilt and tries to be 1-1 in 2023. (Lawlar is 19, so he’ll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in college.) The Diamondbacks also would love to get Watson or Leiter.

 

7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) HS

This has sort of been the Royals’ guy, at least in the industry gossip, all spring, and it’s the sort of high-upside player they used to take before the shift in 2018 to loading up on college pitching. I think they’d take Rocker if he were here, and Jackson Jobe is certainly a contender.

 

8. Colorado Rockies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) HS

This would almost certainly be a discount, letting the Rockies spend more at picks 44, 68 (a Competitive Balance B pick), and/or 79. Everyone assumes they’re on every pitcher, including Jackson Jobe, but Bill Schmidt, now the interim GM, has never just targeted pitching for its own sake, and Montgomery would be far more akin to past Schmidt picks like Zac Veen and David Dahl — very athletic high school outfielders with huge upsides and some questions around their hit tools.

 

9. Los Angeles Angels: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork (S.C.) HS

Taylor is committed to Clemson to play two sports — one of which is football, which, since he’s 175 pounds, I mean, good luck I guess? — but has told teams he has a deal somewhere in the first half of the round, with the Angels coming up often as one of the potential suitors. Look for him to get $4 million or so to buy him away from getting his brains scrambled.

 

10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

They’d love Rocker, and there’s a nonzero chance he gets here. There’s been a consistent rumor that they’d take Colson Montgomery here and cut a severe discount, but they don’t pick again till 46 and don’t have any extra picks this year, so that strategy only makes sense if they think he’s way better than most other teams think. If they wanted to reach a little for someone, it could be Will Bednar.

 

 

Jackson Jobe. (Courtesy of Heritage Hall / Kimberly Richelle)

11. Washington Nationals: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) HS

I should point out the Nats have taken just one high school player in the first round since 2012, Mason Denaburg, who has been hurt pretty much since he signed. (They took Carter Kieboom with a compensation pick in 2016.) That might deter them from taking any high school pitcher, but I think Jobe is in his own tier of prep arms this year, and I would guess he’s the only one they’d consider. They seem like Rocker’s floor — and maybe the floor for any of the top six guys who might slip if, say, Baltimore cuts a deal with someone like Colton Cowser.

 

12. Seattle Mariners: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

I’d be floored if the Mariners took a high school guy. I think it’s Cowser, Sal Frelick, Ty Madden, or someone else in that cluster.

 

13. Philadelphia Phillies: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

The Phillies have been linked to Benny Montgomery and Anthony Solometo, because they’re local, of course, although I don’t think either would be a bad pick here. When Dave Dombrowski has had a first-round pick as a GM, however, he’s tended toward college guys, occasionally going for a high school guy if he has some exceptional tool like a huge fastball (Jacob Turner). If that’s still accurate, they could be Jobe’s floor.

 

14. San Francisco Giants: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

I don’t think they’re definitely going college, but it’s more likely. Frelick, Cowser, McLain are the most likely names, depending on who gets here; I don’t think there’s a college pitcher who fits unless they want to go under slot.

 

15. Milwaukee Brewers: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) HS

This name has come up a few times with the Brewers already, as they’ve scouted him heavily and seem to buy into his bat, even with questions about his ultimate position.

 

16. Miami Marlins: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS/QB, North Oconee (GA) HS

Chandler is also committed to play football at Clemson, and is also really unlikely to stay on campus at this point, with multiple teams interested in him as a pitcher and a few even interested in him as a position player. The Marlins have shown interest in him on the mound and are generally linked to high-ceiling guys.

 

17. Cincinnati Reds: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East (NY) HS

Mack really made himself some money in his late spring, showing better at the plate and behind it than he had prior to 2021. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds try to slip under slot here so they can go over at picks 30 and 37, so that could mean a college bat like Tyler Black.

 

18. St. Louis Cardinals: Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois

Sweeney has emerged as a favorite of model-heavy teams based on his big statistical performance against weak pitching this spring, but scouts question the swing-and-miss and don’t think he stays at shortstop. That said, the Cardinals took a very toolsy, high-upside high school player last year in Jordan Walker, so I’m not ruling out any player type here.

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic (FL) High

The Blue Jays have been linked to Allen for a while now, having scouted him heavily during the state all-star tournament at the end of the spring. I’d heard them earlier on Florida senior Tommy Mace, but Mace wasn’t good later in the spring, and the Blue Jays don’t have a second-round pick (for signing George Springer) so going under slot here makes little sense; it’s far more likely they’d just go slot on someone like Tyler Black or Connor Norby than try to save some cash.

 

 

Gavin Williams pitches for East Carolina against Vanderbilt in the NCAA super regional in June. (Mark Humphrey / Associated Press)

20. New York Yankees: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina

I’ve heard the Yankees on everything, from high school pitching (Anthony Solometo) to prep bats (Benny Montgomery) to college arms. Williams has some dings on him, but his stuff and performance this year would put him squarely in the first round for teams unconcerned about his health history. You could say the same about Sam Bachman as well.

 

21. Chicago Cubs: Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) HS

I’d heard them heavily on Will Taylor, but he’s going to be long gone. Their approach seems to be more for high-upside high school position players, which could mean Pacheco, Allen, Braden Montgomery (if he’d sign), or maybe Tyler Whitaker.

 

22. Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge (IN) HS

All spring it’s been Colson Montgomery, Chase Petty and Pacheco for the White Sox. They might have their pick of all three.

 

23. Cleveland: Anthony Solometo, RHP, Bishop Eustace (NJ) Prep

Solometo goes somewhere in the 16-25 range, I think, and fits Cleveland’s recent m.o. of taking high-upside high school arms even if they have something unconventional in their deliveries.

 

24. Atlanta: Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP/SS, Nebraska

I just haven’t heard any other name linked to Atlanta this strongly all spring. I could see them going for the Tyler Black/Connor Norby group of college hitters (maybe Trey Sweeney or Ethan Wilson), or taking a different college arm like Jordan Wicks or Michael McGreevy, who I will forever think is the guitarist for Pearl Jam.

 

25. Oakland Athletics: Tyler Black, IF, Wright State

Black’s floor is somewhere right around here; I don’t think Oakland has a “typical” pick any more, but Black does satisfy both scouts and analysts, especially since he hit well in non-conference play against Vanderbilt earlier in the spring.

 

26. Minnesota Twins: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

Bednar was already going in the first round before his performance on short rest — because winning a college game is everything! — in Omaha in the College World Series, with one of the best sliders in the draft this year.

 

27. San Diego Padres: Tyler Whitaker, OF, Bishop Gorman (NV) HS

Whitaker’s a right fielder with huge power already, and reportedly put on a show in a workout for the team last week. They’re going to go for upside here, whether it’s a bat or an arm, and almost certainly will go high school.

 

28. Tampa Bay Rays: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

I’ve heard the Rays on all manner of guys — high school hitters like Wes Kath, college hitters like Ryan Bliss, and college arms.

 

29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (FL) HS

The Dodgers have shown no fear of taking high-upside and high-dollar high school arms, even if those guys might not sign (J.T. Ginn). Painter was supposed to be a mid-first round pick, and was better after a rough start to the spring.

 

30. Cincinnati Reds: Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham

I mean, they could take Mikulski at 17 and try to float Mack here, but that might be too risky. My bet is that one of the Reds’ three picks at 17, 30 and 36 is on a college guy who’d take less than slot, and Mikulski, as a college senior, probably would have to do so. They could then go bigger at 36 on a position player like Max Muncy or Whitaker, or a high school arm like Michael Morales or Ben Kudrna.

[Jimcanuck]

A BA sleeper pick.

 

 

Calvin Ziegler, RHP, St. Mary’s HS (Kitchener, Ont.)

BA Rank: 272

 

Why he might be undervalued: Ziegler is one of the hardest-throwing high school hurlers Canada has seen in recent memory, and the improvements he’s made with his strike-throwing ability to go along with decent secondaries are cause for excitement. The 18-year-old righthander has gotten his fastball into the upper 90s this spring, showing more velocity than any other Canadian high schooler in decades, sitting more consistently in the mid 90s. His ability to make improvements in a tight timeframe bodes well for his future, especially as a 6-foot-2, 205-pound hurler without much physical projection remaining. The Auburn commit has a top-to-bottom curveball and a changeup that he was able to get continual work on this season despite his home province being void of opportunities because of strict pandemic protocols. Ziegler headed south to Florida early this year to get some time in on the mound at TXNL Academy, where he proved that he can find success beyond the border before returning home recently. The last 16 months have been especially hard on draft-eligible Canadians living in their home country, but Ziegler has found ways to continue his development, and it’s likely that those efforts could be recognized much earlier in the draft than where he sits on our list.

[Krylian]

A BA sleeper pick.

 

 

Calvin Ziegler, RHP, St. Mary’s HS (Kitchener, Ont.)

BA Rank: 272

 

Why he might be undervalued: Ziegler is one of the hardest-throwing high school hurlers Canada has seen in recent memory, and the improvements he’s made with his strike-throwing ability to go along with decent secondaries are cause for excitement. The 18-year-old righthander has gotten his fastball into the upper 90s this spring, showing more velocity than any other Canadian high schooler in decades, sitting more consistently in the mid 90s. His ability to make improvements in a tight timeframe bodes well for his future, especially as a 6-foot-2, 205-pound hurler without much physical projection remaining. The Auburn commit has a top-to-bottom curveball and a changeup that he was able to get continual work on this season despite his home province being void of opportunities because of strict pandemic protocols. Ziegler headed south to Florida early this year to get some time in on the mound at TXNL Academy, where he proved that he can find success beyond the border before returning home recently. The last 16 months have been especially hard on draft-eligible Canadians living in their home country, but Ziegler has found ways to continue his development, and it’s likely that those efforts could be recognized much earlier in the draft than where he sits on our list.

 

Make it happen, Shatkins

[Sorrow]

Yes bring me a Kitchener boy. I used to (going back 15 years) played baseball with a Ziegler and I'm originally from Kitchener wonder if it could be a cousin.