MLB 2021 Draft

[Laika]

Alright maybe this Jud Fabian guy is not a first rounder.

 

[BlueRocky]

Alex Binelas saw his stock drop a bit too but looks like he’s getting himself out of it. He was considered a top 10 pick preseason.

 

 

33 Last: 9

Alex Binelas

Louisville

3B

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Nationals '18 (35)

Age At Draft: 21.1

 

Binelas is one of the better in-game power hitters of the 2021 class and showed that sort of impact ability with the bat in his freshman season. An immediate regular with Louisville, Binelas posted a .291/.383/.612 line with 14 home runs. He was the first Louisville freshman to hit 10 or more homers since Chris Dominguez did it in 2007. The 6-foot-3, 210-pound third baseman doesn’t do it at the plate with a picturesque swing or operation and he has plenty of swing and miss (48 strikeouts in 243 plate appearances in 2019) in his game, but the production and all-fields impact is undeniable. Binelas plays a workman’s style third base with stiff actions and fringe-average defense, but he does have enough arm to play the position and he’s an accurate thrower. He might have to move to first base in the future if he doesn’t continue to make improvements on the defensive side, but he should have the plus power to profile there if necessary. A hamate injury limited Binelas in 2020 and he played just two games before the season was shut down.

[TheHurl]

Leiter gave up no hits again this week.

[Slade]

Latest BA Mock

 

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Jordan Lawlar

Dallas Jesuit HSSS

Notes:

BA pick: With the first pick for the Pirates, I knew I was going with one of Lawlar or either of the two Vanderbilt righthanders: Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter. All three seem to be in the top tier of the class at this point, and I was curious to see which of the two Vandy Boys our scout went with at No. 2 if I gave him the opportunity to select either. This would be the first time the Pirates have used the No. 1 overall pick on a high school player in franchise history. The four previous times the organization has had the top pick in a draft, it has taken a prospect out of a four-year university.

 

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Kumar Rocker

VanderbiltRHP

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout goes with Rocker, taking the more established of the two Vandy arms, though both have first round pedigree coming out of high school and both have dominated so far this spring. Rocker has struck out 53 batters (12.9 K/9) and walked 12 (2.9 BB/9) through six starts and 37 innings, while allowing just three earned runs (0.73 ERA).

 

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Jack Leiter

VanderbiltRHP

Notes:

BA pick: I would have taken whichever of the Rocker/Leiter combination made it to No. 3 with this pick. Leiter has actually slightly outperformed Rocker through six starts. He has struck out 59 batters (14.8 K/9) and walked 13 (3.3 BB/9) through 36 innings and allowed just one earned run (0.25 ERA). After no-hitting South Carolina over a full game two weeks ago, Leiter threw seven no-hit innings against Missouri last Friday.

 

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Marcelo Mayer

Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif.SS

Notes:

Scout pick: It seems like Mayer is the clear No. 4 after the top trio of players on the board. Whether he is in the mix of the top tier or just on the cusp of joining that top tier is still to be determined. Some scouts believe he has a chance to be the best pure hitter in the draft—college or high school—and with an impressive glove at a premium position, that gives him a two-way toolset that shouldn’t last long on the board. At the moment, it seems like the “place to pick” in this year’s draft class is either No. 3 or 4.

 

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Adrian De Castillo

MiamiC

Notes:

BA pick: Things become less obvious at this point on the board as we sit here in late March. Sure, taking a catcher might seem misguided considering Baltimore has the best catching prospect in the world in its farm system, but let’s point out a few things. 1. Teams should take the best player available on the board, regardless of the farm system. It’s possible Del Castillo is that sort of talent at this spot. 2. We saw just last year from the Giants that having Joey Bart in their system didn’t preclude them from using a first-round pick on Patrick Bailey. 3. Del Castillo has defensive questions and depending on the team, he might be a candidate to move off the position anyway. In this specific situation, moving him becomes more of a no-brainer, but his bat is good enough to profile elsewhere.

 

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Sal Frelick

Boston CollegeOF

Notes:

Scout pick: One scouting director told us that based on Frelick’s play thus far, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go off the board as the No. 1 or 2 college bat. Our scout is buying the performance and the hitterish qualities of Frelick’s game seem to match up with the sort of player that Arizona seems to like. Frelick is hitting .406/.468/.677 with more walks (11) than strikeouts (10) through 22 games, with five home runs—a new season best—nine doubles and five stolen bases in seven tries. It’s also worth noting that D-backs assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye oversaw the Red Sox 2015 draft (among others) when the team took Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi with the seventh overall pick. This Frelick selection would draw plenty of comparisons to Boston/Benintendi, though Frelick’s collegiate track record is more impressive than Benintendi’s at the time.

 

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Henry Davis

LouisvilleC

Notes:

BA pick: With Frelick off the board the choices here for the Royals would seem to be a number of college righthanders or a riskier, high-upside prep bat like James Wood or Brady House—along with my actual choice, Louisville catcher Henry Davis. Davis has vaulted himself into solid top-10 range thanks to his offensive performance this season and he’s hitting .370/.470/.617 with five home runs, five doubles and 14 walks to just eight strikeouts. On top of that he’s gone 8-for-9 in stolen base attempts, a high total and impressive rate for a catcher. It wouldn’t at all be surprising for the Royals to continue hoarding arms at this spot, but this class is rich in pitching and light on college bats, so perhaps they could take the other half of the battery with their first pick this time around with Davis, who has a 70-grade arm.

 

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Gunnar Hoglund

MississippiRHP

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout dives into the second tier of college arms here for the Rockies, taking Hoglund, who moved up 13 spots in our most recent update to the No. 10 overall player in the class. Hoglund entered the year with some of the best command in the class but now he’s locating with a harder fastball that’s sitting 92-94 mph and a slider that has more velocity as well. In terms of performance he’s been brilliant through six starts, with a 2.63 ERA and 65 strikeouts to just eight walks in 37.2 innings. Hoglund has struck out 10 or more batters in five of his six outings and has walked one batter or fewer in four of six.

 

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Ty Madden

TexasRHP

Notes:

BA pick: With Hoglund off the board to the Rockies, I was deciding between Madden, Louisiana State righthander Jaden Hill and the top prep prospects on the board, shortstops Brady House and Kahlil Watson and outfielder James Wood. After allowing three earned runs in four innings to Mississippi State in his opening start of the season, Madden has been rock solid, allowing just five earned runs over 35.1 innings against Brigham Young, Houston, South Carolina, Baylor and Oklahoma.

 

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Jackson Jobe

Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City, Okla.RHP

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout goes with prep righthander Jackson Jobe, who began the year as the No. 30 player in the class, but shot up to No. 18 as the new top prep arm overall thanks to a few loud performances this spring. Jobe’s elite-spin breaking ball is the headliner, but scouts have loved the progress of his changeup this season and some think he could have three future plus offerings. This pick would make Jobe the highest-selected prep righthander since Carter Stewart (No. 8, Braves) in 2018.

 

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Brady House

Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga.SS

Notes:

BA pick: The Nationals like physically developed high school players, so I think House fits the bill here. He could give them the sort of impact bat their farm system could use after taking pitchers in the first round in each of the last four drafts. The last first-round bat the Nationals selected was Carter Kieboom (2016, No. 28), who was also a high school shortstop out of Georgia—though House’s offensive upside is significantly louder than Kieboom’s was at the same time.

 

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Jaden Hill

Louisiana StateRHP

Notes:

Scout pick: I avoided picking Hill in my previous two selections to try and gauge how far our scout would let him drop after a rough start to the season. The answer seems to be not much. That seemed to be the thoughts of the industry as well, as we gathered feedback for our updated rankings that saw Hill slide from No. 6 to just No. 8. Hill has posted a 6.35 ERA over six starts and 28.1 innings, while striking out 23 batters (7.3 K/9) and walking 10 (3.2 BB/9). His worst start of the season was against Oral Roberts—where he allowed five hits, two walks and eight earned runs while getting just one out—but he has also been hit around against Mississippi State (7.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) and Tennessee (4 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 6 K) in his two most recent starts. Hill is holding similar velocity in a starting role this season, but scouts are wondering how hittable his fastball is given its movement profile and his lack of deception, and his slider hasn’t been as sharp as teams have seen it in the past. Hill is one of the bigger question marks in the first round at the moment.

 

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Jordan Wicks

Kansas StateLHP

Notes:

BA pick: The board seems to be opening up for a variety of different demographics at this range. There are a few college hitters trending in the wrong direction (Matt McLain, Jud Fabian), a few upside preps (James Wood, Kahlil Watson, Bubba Chandler) or perhaps a surging college righthander (Sam Bachman) or one of the few rising college bats (Luca Tresh) that could make some sense. Instead of any of those, how about Kansas State ace Jordan Wicks, who is one of the safest profiles in the class. He’s coming off of his worst outing of the season against Oklahoma State—6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 9 K—but has posted a 2.65 ERA over six starts and 37.1 innings, while striking out 51 batters (12.3 K/9) and walking just 10 (2.4 BB/9). Wicks sits with an average fastball around 92 mph, but his changeup is potentially a double-plus pitch and he’s an above-average strike thrower. There is more upside in the draft, but perhaps no safer bet to be a solid, back-end starter than Wicks.

 

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Matt McLain

UCLASS

Notes:

Scout pick: McLain entered the season as a top-10 talent at No. 8 overall on the board, but recently dropped to No. 14 as scouts felt like he was more of a middle-of-the-first sort of talent instead of an elite, top-of-the-class bat. Teams still seem to really like McLain’s bat, but wonder if he’s more of a doubles hitter who lacks real in-game power, and also wonder if he’s a no-doubt shortstop at the next level. Our scout takes McLain here with the Giants, putting him more in the Bryson Stott/Will Wilson tier of players than the Austin Martin/Nick Madrigal tier among the top five picks of the class.

 

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James Wood

IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.OF

Notes:

BA pick: After thinking about Wood with each of my last three picks, I had to stop his fall here. Wood seems like a bit of a split-camp type player at the top of the draft, with some teams thinking of him as a real top-five talent thanks to his tremendous upside, while others put him more in the 10-15 range. This pick would give the Brewers another high-upside talent that fell down the board to them after taking UCLA outfielder Garrett Mitchell (the No. 6 player in the 2020 class) with the 20th pick last year. This selection would make Wood the highest-drafted player in IMG Academy history, topping the likes of Brady Aiken (17, 2015) and Brennan Malone (33, 2019).

 

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Sam Bachman

Miami (Ohio)RHP

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout goes with Bachman to the Marlins, which would give Miami back-to-back years with a college righthander in the first round who could have a pair of 70-grade pitches. Bachman’s fastball has been up to 100 mph this season and sits around 96, and he’s also snapped off a hard and sharp slider in the upper-80s that some scouts have put plus-plus grades on. Bachman has missed a few weeks due to arm soreness, but struck out all nine batters he faced last Saturday against Northern Illinois.

 

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Kahlil Watson

Wake Forest (N.C.) HSSS

Notes:

BA pick: This is a similar pick to the Wood selection at No. 15 to the Brewers. It seems like Watson has a chance to go before this, and anywhere around the 10-20 range given his profile, bat speed, athleticism and the hit tool he showcased last summer against good competition. With plus running ability and plus arm strength, Watson has an electric package of tools and significant upside, and the Reds haven’t been afraid to take profiles like that out of high school.

 

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Bubba Chandler

North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga.RHP/SS

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout takes perhaps the biggest helium high schooler in the class here in Bubba Chandler. Clemson fans perhaps squirm at this selection, as Chandler is a four-star quarterback who is committed to the program for both football and baseball. Chandler is a bit of a freak athlete. He can throw a football 40 yards downfield with his off (left) hand, he can windmill dunk on the basketball court, he’s a switch hitting shortstop and on the mound he runs his fastball into the upper 90s with a potential plus hammer as well. If teams believe he’s signable in July, it’s difficult to see him falling out of the first round.

 

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Luca Tresh

North Carolina StateC

Notes:

BA pick: This almost feels like the start of another tier in the class, given the players who have gone in front of the Blue Jays. Perhaps a few players still on the board like Florida outfielder Jud Fabian or prep righthander Andrew Painter fit in that tier, but I’m going with the hottest hitting prospect to start the year out of the first round: Luca Tresh. Tresh has hit .339/.394/.729 through 15 games this season, with seven home runs. He produces loud exit velocities off the bat and has a swing that both scouts and analytical departments seem to like—while potentially being able to handle the game’s most demanding defensive position. The defense is what scouts are still bearing down on, with some scouts saying he could go in front of where fellow North Carolina State catcher Patrick Bailey went last year (No. 13) if a team believes in the defense.

 

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Tommy Mace

FloridaRHP

Notes:

Scout pick: With our scout making this selection, Mace becomes the first member of the 2020 draft class to return and get drafted in 2021. Like a few pitchers in this mock, Mace is coming off of his worst start of the season this week—4 IP 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K—but has been successful on the whole, with a 2.91 ERA over six starts and 34 innings. He has an excellent ratio of strikeouts (46) to walks (5) so far this season, which would easily be good for the best K/9 (12.6) and BB/9 (1.2) ratios of his career.

 

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Joe Mack

Williamsville East HS, East Amherst, N.Y.C

Notes:

BA pick: There are a significant number of toolsy preps on the board and I’ll take one of them here for the Cubs in Mack. Sure, Mack is a high school catcher and that demographic is among the riskiest you can pick from, but he also has the sort of bat that can profile at another position, which lessens the risk in my mind. Putting him with a team like the Cubs gives me some confidence, but the Northeast high school players could be difficult to place for a while longer.

 

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Jud Fabian

FloridaOF

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout finally stops Fabian’s slide down the board. As I did with Hill previously, I avoided taking Fabian to see how long our scout would let him slide, and he makes it to the White Sox in the final third of the first round in this scenario. Fabian is perhaps the most difficult player to assess at the moment. He is a no-doubt center fielder who should be a plus defender at the position, he has plus power and he is also the youngest collegiate hitter among the top 300 prospects. That toolset and profile should have him selected in a solid range—particularly in a draft class down on college hitters—but teams have significant reservations due to his swing-and-miss tendencies and 36% strikeout rate this season.

 

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Joshua Baez

Dexter Southfield HS, Brookline, Mass.OF

Notes:

BA pick: Baez looked good all over the field last weekend, going 4-for-7 over two games with a double against a slider, a few good jumps in center field and a sliding catch and also hopped on the mound and touched 96 mph—albeit without great control. Baez has some of the best raw power in the high school class, and while he does have more swing and miss in his game than a typical Indians draftee, he’s also one of the younger players in the class and turns 18 just two weeks before the draft. Draft age has been an emphasis for Cleveland more so than any other team in baseball in recent years.

 

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Ryan Cusick

Wake ForestRHP

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout takes another college righthander who we have ranked right at the back of the first round range with Cusick, who is the No. 31 player in the class. This would give the Braves their second straight first-rounder out of Wake Forest, but a player significantly different from lefthander Jared Shuster. Cusick’s fastball sits in the 95-97 mph range and he’s been up to 99—it’s one of the better pure fastballs in the class—but he struggles with his control and the consistency of his breaking ball. Those questions give him reliever risk, but he’s still produced through four starts this spring, posting a 2.82 ERA over 22.1 innings and four starts, with 43 strikeouts (17.4 K/9) and 12 walks (4.8 BB/9).

 

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Harry Ford

North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, Ga.C

Notes:

BA pick: This is now the second time I have selected a catcher for a team who recently took a catcher in the first round. Stick with me, it makes sense I promise. First of all, Ford fits here on talent and that is the most important thing. Secondly, he’s a freakish athlete for a catcher and a legit plus runner who could easily move off the position and play somewhere else (Center field? Second base? Third base?) and play it well. Third, the Athletics seem to love taking players with athleticism, as evidenced by recent picks like Logan Davidson, Kyler Murray and Austin Beck. There’s a chance Ford doesn’t make it this far down the board given the chatter about him early this spring.

 

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Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.RHP

Notes:

Scout pick: Before the season started, it would have been crazy to see Painter’s name this far down the board, but prep righties routinely slide and Painter has struggled at times this spring. His fastball has been hittable and his breaking ball has been more inconsistent, but teams won’t soon forget just how good he looked last summer. Our scout is in charge of this selection, but I have to say it would be a bit surprising to see a team like the Twins take a prep righthander in the first round.

 

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New Padres Logo

Thatcher Hurd

Mira Costa HS, Manhattan Beach, Calif.RHP

Notes:

BA pick: What strange territory the Padres scouting department is in, picking all the way down here. Their last five first-round picks were all among the top 10—and boy did San Diego really knock them out of the park with righthander Cal Quantrill, lefthander MacKenzie Gore, lefthander Ryan Weathers, shortstop CJ Abrams and outfielder Robert Hassell. All of the high school selections seem like great picks at this point. Will the Padres continue their drafting magic at the back of the first round? We’ll see, but Thatcher Hurd is a (reasonably) local product who plays in the Los Angeles area, and is the biggest non-Bubba Chandler riser in the high school class so far this season.

 

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Chase Petty

Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, N.J.RHP

Notes:

Scout pick: Our scout continues this run on high school players by pairing the Rays with Petty, who has easily the best fastball in the prep class. Petty recently ran his heater up to 102 mph in a bullpen session and also features a hard slider. However, the recent track record of hard-throwing high school righthanders is not a good one. Hunter Greene (2017), Riley Pint (2016) and Tyler Kolek (2014) all touched 102 mph in high school, and that will understandably scare teams off of the profile. Perhaps the Rays can afford to tolerate more risk given the insane depth of their farm system.

 

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Will Bednar

Mississippi StateRHP

Notes:

BA pick: I stopped the run of preps by going with another college arm, bringing our tally of first round college righthanders to nine—which would be the most in a first round since the 2006 draft that had 11 college righthanders. Bednar cruised through his first four outings of the season before running into Arkansas last weekend—5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. He has a 2.12 ERA through five games and 17 innings, with 31 strikeouts (16.4 K/9) and just two walks (1.1 BB/9). Bednar has a limited collegiate resume overall, but his fastball gets a ton of whiffs in the zone and his slider can be an out pitch as well.

[Krylian]

Draft confirmed 20 Rounds

[Ehjays]

MLB Informs Teams 2021 Draft Will Be 20 Rounds

By Steve Adams | April 2, 2021 at 1:07pm CDT

 

Major League Baseball has settled on a 20-round draft for the 2021 season, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America reports. That outcome has long seemed likely, as it is the minimum number of rounds required in the 2020 agreement between MLB and the MLBPA. While it’s obviously a step up from last year’s five-round event, the 20-round length still clocks in at half the length of the standard 40-round draft.

 

This year’s draft was already set to look quite a bit different. For starters, it’s been known for months that the event will be moved back to July. Major League Baseball also announced back in November the formation of the MLB Draft League — a six-team showcase league that will offer some of the country’s top amateurs the opportunity to compete against one another in the weeks leading up to the draft. There’s also been talk of an NFL-style combine of sorts, which would give clubs more up to date medical information on potential draftees. Pushing the draft back until after the College World Series and state high school tournament completions also avoids injury risk for top talent after the draft.

 

Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, meanwhile, has a full breakdown of each team’s league-allotted bonus pool for this year’s draft. The Pirates, picking first overall, lead the way at $14.394MM. The Tigers check in with the second-largest pool at $14.253MM and stand as the only other team north of $13MM. The Astros, who had their first- and second-round picks stripped as part of the organization’s punishment stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal, have just a $2.94MM bonus pool. As Collazo observes, the individual slot values of the first 22 picks in the draft are all greater than Houston’s entire bonus pool. The Astros do not have a selection until the 87th overall pick.

 

On that note, it’s worth reminding that the assigned slot values for selections in the top 10 rounds have not progressed from 2020 — another element to which the union agreed in last year’s negotiations with ownership. That means the top slot will again be valued at $8,415,300, and values will gradually descend from there. There are no slot values after the tenth round, as usual. Teams can spend up to $125K per pick in Rounds 11 through 20 without any money counting against their pool. Any dollars over that mark will count against a team’s pool. Undrafted players can again become free agents who are free to sign with any club, but those bonuses are capped at $20K apiece.

[BlueRocky]

Per Collazo’s article, the Blue Jays have $5,775,900 pool for the draft, 3rd lowest in the MLB.

 

The #19 pick slot value is $3,359,000.

Pick 91 is $647,300.

 

They don’t have a 2nd round pick in 2021.

 

Their international pool is set to $4,644,000.

[BlueRocky]

70 grade strut, but he’s still young. There’s still time.

 

[Brownie19]

Leiter has a high effort delivery - but man, the swagger is really good.

[Krylian]

Leiter has a high effort delivery - but man, the swagger is really good.

 

The ego is hereditary.

[Laika]

I don't see Leiter's delivery as that high effort. I see very quick but sort of smooth.

 

Jaden Hill TJS. Was mocked in the top 10. Available at 19 now?

[BlueRocky]

It’s possible he falls from top 10 to out of the first round like JT Ginn.

 

He’s still young enough to come back from UCL injuries, but his performance pre-injury was pedestrian. Hill is being ranked so highly purely based on stuff and athleticism.

 

Not really a guy I want the Jays to take a flyer on in the first round, during a draft class with an abundance of intriguing prep bats and college arms.

[Slade]

I would definitely consider Hill but you're not wrong his in game performance has been pedestrian. I still think he's worth it but probably not to us with a limited bonus pool.

 

I'd really like to see us grab a guy like Josh Baez,

[Laika]

It’s possible he falls from top 10 to out of the first round like JT Ginn.

 

He’s still young enough to come back from UCL injuries, but his performance pre-injury was pedestrian. Hill is being ranked so highly purely based on stuff and athleticism.

 

Not really a guy I want the Jays to take a flyer on in the first round, during a draft class with an abundance of intriguing prep bats and college arms.

 

I wonder if the performance was affected by the injury. I think he's worth considering if the scouting data from prior years has his upside up near the top of the draft. He basically has no college sample - only a couple of games in 2019, then covid, now this.

[BlueRocky]

If he was an absolute stud when healthy and has performed (ala Garrett Crochet) even in a BP capacity, but lack of starting track record, I’d say consider him.

The college track record doesn’t exist because he just can’t stay healthy in LSU.

 

Jaden Hill is already 21, turning 22. By the time he recovers from elbow surgery he’ll be almost 23 and pitching his first professional game in A-ball. Now you’re also betting his stuff returns AND he suddenly figured out how to command it AND he can stay healthy to remain a starting pitcher.

 

We also don’t have a second rounder this year. There’s gonna be so many options at 19, I don’t know why we’d consider Hill. If you want high ceiling arm that can throw 102 MPH, draft Chase Petty. If you want a college arm that throws gas draft Sam Bachman. There’s no need to roll the dice on Hill. There’s also a slew of really intriguing position players projected middle of the first round that all have top 10 upside.

[Spanky99]

Damn, I like that prep arm in Petty.

[WONDERBAT]

The college prospects are pretty underwhelming this year outside of the top 5-6 guys. The high school guys look to have much more potential and they'd probably be ranked higher if all the circuits were running last year.

 

I would be all over guys like Kahlil Watson, Andrew Painter, Joshua Baez, Ben Montgomery, Thatcher Hurd and James Wood.

 

We got Austin Martin last year and a bunch of college pitchers, I think we can take some riskier picks this year.

[BlueRocky]

James Wood looks ridiculously.

Andrew Painter is a real possibility, though not sure if I like him more or Jackson Jobe, his spin rate metrics are insane with projectable velo.

 

Going based on the middle infield with power types that FO likes they’d likely have on their radar James Wood, Brady House, Izaac Pacheco, and Joshua Baez. There’s a couple HS catching prospects too with legit bats but I’ve haven’t dug deep enough into them and it’s a riskier demographic.

[BlueRocky]

[BlueRocky]

 

 

[Laika]

Lawlar could go #1

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/live-looks-scouting-reports-on-potential-first-rounders-top-100-draft-prospects/

 

Live Looks: Scouting Notebook On Top 100 Draft Prospects

 

By Ben Badler on April 15, 2021

 

Over the last few weeks, I've had the opportunity to get live looks at several players listed among the top 100 prospects in our 2021 draft rankings, including multiple projected first-round picks.

 

Below are reports and videos on those players, with reports based on seeing these players in person and conversations with scouts who have also seen them live this year.

 

Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

 

In a year in which not many upper-tier college hitters have distinguished themselves from the pack at the top of the draft, Frelick has been an exception, ranking as the No. 6 prospect for the draft. A 5-foot-9, 175-pound center fielder, Frelick is hitting .360/.438/.576 with 16 walks and 15 strikeouts through 144 plate appearances, putting himself in the mix to be a top-10 overall pick. Frelick is an explosive, bursty athlete with 70 speed, getting home to first consistently in 4.0 seconds from the left side, sometimes in the high 3.9 seconds. He has shown solid defensive instincts to be able to handle center field, showing a fringy-to-average arm in these looks with good accuracy.

 

Frelick has a fairly simple, direct and quick swing from the left side without much movement. He has good hand-eye coordination with a small strike zone and he mostly stays within that zone, with the bat-to-ball skills to be able to put the ball in play even when he does chase. Frelick does a good job of going with where the ball is pitched, as he can pull his hands inside a pitch up and in and is adept at serving pitches on the outer half the opposite way. Frelick has quick hand speed and sneaky pull power for his size, but it's more occasional home run power that grades out below-average.

 

With the way Frelick's swing works, he does most of his damage when pitchers attack him from the thighs up, showing the ability to drive and elevate those balls, but he can run into issues with pitches in the lower tier of the strike zone or below. He doesn't put his "A" swing on those pitches, especially against soft stuff down. Frelick still has the hand-eye coordination to serve the ball into play, but it usually leads to a ground ball and him relying on his 70-grade wheels to put pressure on the defense.

 

That last part is somewhat nitpicking a high first-round pick who should be one of the top college hitters off the board. If everything clicks for Frelick, he can be a spark plug at the top of a lineup while playing a premium position.

 

 

Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS (Brookline, Mass.)

 

I've seen Baez play four games this spring, which is every game his team has played, with the exception of one road game where no outside spectators were allowed (including scouts) due to the school's Covid-19 restrictions. Right now, James Wood in Florida is the top-ranked high school outfielder in the class, but Baez has a case for that claim, and he's playing like a first-round pick (currently the No. 21 prospect on the BA board).

 

Baez has an exciting package of physicality, explosive athleticism and loud tools. He's 6-foot-3, 220 pounds with fast bat speed, lots of strength and plus raw power that could develop into a 70 tool. He's also one of the youngest players in the class, turning 18 at the end of June, so he's nine months younger than Wood. There's little question about Baez's power, but he did show some swing-and-miss tendencies last summer and fall. Last year he didn't seem to be out of control at the plate for the most part, and so far this year, he has done the same. In his first plate appearance of the season, he lined a breaking ball into the left-center field gap for a double. In 14 trips to the plate that I've seen, he's gone 5-for-11 with three walks and no strikeouts, and three of those six outs were smashed for hard contact. He has swung and missed just three times, once on a breaking ball and twice on fastballs in 2-0 and 3-1 counts where he was looking to launch. He isn't a free-swinger, showing the ability to manage his at-bats well. He overswings at times when he tries to do too much, so there will probably always be some strikeouts that come with his power, but the quality of his at-bats this spring have been encouraging.

 

On defense, Baez is an above-average runner in center field with a 70 arm. He's built like a corner outfielder, but he has a chance to play center field. He has shown good defensive instincts this year, making a sliding catch charging in on a ball and getting good reads off the bat. He's not a classic gliding center fielder, but more of a power runner who chews up ground in center with good closing speed. Baez might end up outgrowing the position, but he should go out in pro ball and develop as a center fielder at the lower levels.

 

He has a chance to be a George Springer-type physical center fielder with a strong arm capable of staying there, but if he ends up being teammates with a better defensive center fielder, he has the offensive upside where he could slide over to right field and be a plus defender there.

 

Baez also pitches for his high school team, with a fastball that has ranged from 90-96 mph. He pairs it with tight raw spin at times on his inconsistent breaking ball, but his control is scattered and he's fairly raw on the mound because he hasn't spent much time focusing on pitching. If things don't work out for him as a hitter, down the road he has a legitimate fallback option as a power-arm reliever, but he's a first round talent as an outfielder.

 

 

Luca Tresh, C, North Carolina State

 

After the Giants drafted Patrick Bailey with their first-round pick last year, Tresh took over at catcher for North Carolina State. With the way Tresh is playing, the Wolfpack could have first round catchers in consecutive drafts, with Tresh ranked No. 25 on the BA board. Tresh is loose and flexible behind the plate with a plus arm. He showed off that arm multiple times, including when he caught Frelick on a stolen base attempt with an outstanding 1.85-second pop time. He had another laser throw that was right on target, with the only problem being that neither of his middle infielders went to cover the bag (it was a 1.90-second pop time from mitt to the turf behind second base). Tresh has recorded several pop times in the 1.85-to-low-1.9-second range this year. His footwork and exchange are quick, but sometimes this season (particularly early in the year) he has tried to be too quick, causing him to either bobble the transfer or rush his throws that ended up one-hopping the bag. But when he's able to sync everything up, he produces plus times on his throws to second. Tresh isn't as athletic as Bailey, and scouts who have seen Tresh this year have noted that there's some stiffness to his actions and that he doesn't look like a natural receiver, with six passed balls in 25 games.

 

Tresh has hit well every season at NC State, though this year is his first as a regular. He's batting .308/.365/.587 with a team-high eight home runs in 115 plate appearances with 10 walks and 23 strikeouts. He has a spread-out stance with a simple lower half load and takes a professional batting practice with hard line drive contact to all fields and bigger power in games. Tresh is strong and has leverage in his swing with an approach geared to hammer fastballs. He rarely swings through a fastball and does most of his damage against heaters, including a home run and a double in this series, as well as a deep fly out to the left field warning track on a 94 mph fastball from Boston College righthander Mason Pelio.

 

Tresh's 20% strikeout rate (which is manageable, but on the high side) seems to mostly stem from offspeed stuff. With the exception of a hanging breaking ball that he lined over the shortstop's head for a single, Tresh showed swing-and-miss tendencies against both breaking balls and changeups when they were located down or beneath the strike zone. His swing has a bat wrap and he has an out-front contact point suited to pull a fastball, so whether it's an issue of swing adjustability, approach or pitch recognition, Tresh will have to prove he can adjust to secondary pitches down. As a catcher with a chance to hit for power and control the running game, Tresh could fit into the back of the first round, though other clubs would have him a tier below that range on their boards.

 

 

Cody Morissette, 2B, Boston College

 

Morissette currently ranks as the No. 56 prospect on the BA draft board, which would put him in the second round. Whereas Frelick is a bursty, explosive athlete, Morissette is more of a steady player with a mix of tools that grade out around average, carried by an easy lefthanded swing.

 

He's 6 feet, 175 pounds, with a chance to be an offensive second baseman, hitting .264/.382/.429 in 110 plate appearances with 17 walks and 20 strikeouts after working his way back from a hand injury. He has a good setup with quiet hands in a fluid swing that's calm, smooth and under control with a direct path to the ball. Morissette has a good sense of the strike zone and doesn't chase much off the plate. His swing is conducive to getting the ball airborne, with good bat speed and a chance for average raw power.

 

Morissette is an average runner with an average arm. He doesn't have the range for shortstop, but he's a comfortable defender at second base, where he's not flashy but is a fairly steady, reliable defender.

 

 

Jose Torres, SS, North Carolina State

 

Torres was born in the Dominican Republic and graduated from Calvert Hall in Maryland in 2019, when he was a BA 500 draft prospect who went unsigned as a 24th-round pick of the Brewers. He's now draft eligible as a 21-year-old and immediately draws attention for his defensive skills. Watching him take infield, he's extremely light on his feet, floating around at shortstop with graceful footwork, fluid actions and quick hands. He's smooth on both ends of the double play with a swift transfer and good body control. In games he showed quick first-step reads off the bat and a good internal clock, knowing when to get rid of the ball in a hurry and when to slow it down. Torres has shown a 55 arm in the past, though he missed time early this year with an oblique injury and might still be nursing it based on his throws, but he has the arm for shortstop. He went home to first on a groundout in 4.25 seconds from the right side, showing solid-average speed.

 

Whichever team drafts Torres is going to be drawn to a player who projects as a true shortstop with a chance to be a plus defender. Offensively, there are more questions, but Torres has hit .278/.326/.481 through 86 plate appearances. It's a handsy, slasher-type approach with an aggressive mentality that leads him to chase pitches outside the zone. Torres does have good hand-eye coordination, but he might need some swing adjustments in pro ball to improve his balance and swing efficiency. He's not a big power threat, with the ability to sneak a ball out to his pull side but mostly gap power, most likely projecting as a bottom-of-the-order hitter. Jeremy Peña was a more selective hitter with more strength to his body, but he had some similarities to Torres coming out of Maine when the Astros drafted him in the third round (No. 102 overall) in 2018, and that could be the same neighborhood where Torres ends up getting drafted.

 

 

Mason Pelio, RHP, Boston College

 

A 6-foot-3, 230-pound righthander with big velocity, Pelio came into the year with a lot of buzz as one of the top college pitching prospects in the country. Instead, he got off to a rough start, we dropped him to No. 80 in our latest draft rankings update, and he continued to scuffle. Through eight starts, Pelio has a 6.70 ERA in 41.2 innings with 36 strikeouts and 28 walks.

 

Pelio's issues aren't difficult to diagnose. He throws hard—his fastball sits at 92-95 mph, he ran it up to 98 mph against NC State last weekend and he's touched 99 this year—but he struggles to throw his fastball for strikes. When he does throw his fastball in the zone, he's not commanding it, so it's getting hit hard, often with hitters working from favorable counts. Pelio does have an effective changeup, flashing as an above-average weapon in the mid 80s that he can use to miss bats when he keeps it down, though his control of that pitch has escaped him too often as well. He doesn't have a reliable breaking ball, with a fringy curveball that doesn't get many whiffs.

 

With his stock sliding, Pelio needs to rebound in the second half of the season by showing better fastball command. Whatever team drafts Pelio should continue to develop him as a starter, but long term he might end up in a bullpen role where he can throw upper-90s fastballs in short bursts and won't have to get through a lineup multiple times.

[BlueRocky]

Foreshadowing Joshua Baez as a Farrell/Atkins pick

[BlueRocky]

 

Kumar Rocker upping his swag

 

1 –Last: 1

Kumar Rocker

VanderbiltRHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 255 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Rockies '18 (38)

Age At Draft: 21.6

 

In a 2021 college class filled with uncertainty, Rocker is the top prospect of the group thanks to his combination of stuff, physicality and track record. The highest-ranked prep prospect of a loaded 2018 high school pitching class to make it to campus, no one has ever questioned the 6-foot-4, 255-pound righty’s raw stuff. He is regularly in the mid 90s with his fastball and can touch the upper 90s when he wants more, with a power breaking ball and tumbling changeup that both have plus potential. Additionally, Rocker has logged 114.2 innings with Vanderbilt—all in a starting role—and has posted a 3.06 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine and just 2.3 walks per nine. His 11-strikeout game against Michigan in the 2019 College World Series made him one of college baseball’s most prominent names, and he should be one of the first names called in the draft next summer.

Edited April 17, 2021 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

9 Last: 12

Ty Madden

TexasRHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Royals '18 (34)

Age At Draft: 21.4

 

Madden was a lanky, skinny high school arm who put on a massive amount of strength during his final year with Cypress (Texas) Ranch High. Ranked No. 240 on the BA 500 in the 2018 draft, at his best Madden reached 96 mph with his fastball and showed a hammer slider, but he struggled with consistency and strike throwing. A few years later and Madden has continued to fill out his frame—he is now listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds—and harness his impressive stuff. The Texas righty had a solid freshman campaign in a split starter/reliever role, posting a 3.40 ERA over 42.1 innings with 37 strikeouts (7.9 per nine), but walked 24 batters (5.1 per nine). Through four starts in 2020, Madden seemed to have taken a step forward in the strikes department (just four walks in 25 innings) but he’ll need to show that improvement over a full season. He has two potential plus pitches in a fastball that sits 90-94 mph and can get up to 96 at its peak and a standout changeup. Madden has also continued to flash a hard slider in the mid 80s, but he still needs to find consistency with the breaking ball.

[Krylian]

Rocker is gonna be Stroman level hated.

[BlueRocky]

[AdamGreenwood]

Rocker is gonna be Stroman level hated.

 

Or maybe the same level of hate as that pitcher from the Braves that made all the comments about the queers on the subway.

What was him name again? John something...

[Krylian]

Or maybe the same level of hate as that pitcher from the Braves that made all the comments about the queers on the subway.

What was him name again? John something...

 

Smoltz

[Slade]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31269026/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-20-jordan-lawlar-jack-leiter-no-1-our-top-100

 

The 2021 MLB draft picture is coming into focus now, with all the top prospects playing for multiple weeks and plenty of time for pop-up types to be seen multiple times by each team. After this group of the top 100 players plus seven who just missed, things really open up and there's a seemingly endless number of players you could squint at and see sneaking into the fourth round if things break right.

 

Texas high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar and Vanderbilt ace Jack Leiter started to separate themselves as a clear top tier in this group. Beyond them, a pretty consensus second tier has formed, with the majority of teams calling it an overall top eight with the players listed below in a similar order, but there's obviously some room for disagreement toward the tail end of Tier 2 and the top of Tier 3.

 

The 2021 class is generally seen as a down crop since there isn't a slam-dunk clear 1-1 choice (not to mention no generational talent), but I also found there are about 10-12 players to feel good about as top-20 picks, then a gap where we're missing about 10 players, then some solid 20-30 types, with broad agreement from the industry on this instinct. Obviously, some players will step forward and fill those spots, but 2022's draft class is already seen as better, with a potentially historic prep pitching class and Florida prep CF Elijah Green as that once-every-few-years, slam-dunk talent at the top.

 

I've had a decent feel for club preference in the top five to seven picks for a few weeks, but not a ton behind that. Events like the Brady House matchup I wrote about last week help greatly to reveal both where I should rank a player, where the interest is, and which teams are in even more than you'd expect. There was one GM at the game I went to, then two GMs at House's next game that I didn't attend, but the information-collecting inclination of scouts (to be fair, I also do it) has them noticing these sorts of team preferences via attendance at specific games.

 

The last thing to note is an interesting demographic glut of prep hitters in the 20-40 area. There's a big demand for polished position players and a real lack of quality in the college ranks this year, so teams are turning to high schoolers. Some have a strong summer of performance with wood bats against strong competition, which is almost as powerful as one spring of college looks if there's a question about upside, health, competition level, etc. on the college options. I've shuffled the order of these 20-40 prep bats a number of times and clubs seems to be revealing their overall preference for style of hitting prospect by whom they're most enthusiastic about now. The candidates from the colder locales specifically (Benny Montgomery, Lonny White Jr., Alex Mooney, Joe Mack, Josh Baez) just began their seasons and have a chance to jump with a strong start while top-level scouts are coming in now.

 

I included a tier system for the more casual reader and FV grades for the hard-core types who want to slot players into their team's prospect lists.

 

 

Tier 1

See full 2021 draft order here | Initial 2021 rankings

 

1. Jordan Lawlar (19.0), SS, Jesuit HS (Texas), Vanderbilt commit, 55 FV

 

Lawlar offers a wide base of exciting tools: a 6-foot-2 shortstop with five above-average tools, plus speed and a long track record of hitting with wood bats against strong pitching. Pick your favorite All-Star shortstop and there's probably at least one thing Lawlar does similar to him. This spring, there has been some swing-and-miss to his game, and he's a little old for the class, which hurts him empirically in draft models. He's still seen as the top prospect in this class by a bit, even amidst Jack Leiter steamrollering the SEC, but it's now close.

 

2. Jack Leiter (21.2), RHP, Vanderbilt, 55 FV

 

Leiter has an elite, mid-90s fastball that's a plus-plus pitch and a curveball that's slightly ahead of his slider, but both can be used to put away hitters, and he has the pitchability to help him post what are frankly some totally goofy numbers this year in his first extended exposure to SEC hitters: 55.1 IP, 17 H, 22 BB, 94 K's, 0.98 ERA. The only light negatives here are he's only 6-foot-1, there isn't a 70-grade off-speed pitch, and pitchers get hurt much more often than position players.

 

Pittsburgh at 1-1 seems inclined to chase upside -- and show patience in a longer full-reset-style rebuild -- so Leiter's shorter timetable doesn't perfectly fit that plan, but neither does Ke'Bryan Hayes already being good for the Pirates in the big leagues, so that's more of a tiebreaker than anything else.

 

Tier 2

3. Marcelo Mayer (18.6), SS, Eastlake HS (California), USC commit, 50 FV

 

Mayer's spring season just began, and he's got a real shot to be at the top of this second tier on draft day because he has both the safety (elite hit tool by performance and to the eye, likely to stick at shortstop) and upside (stars in the draft are most often found among elite high school shortstops). He was at only a few events last summer, so his spring performance from here on out will carry some weight, but he has been seen a decent amount before that at Team USA events and because he played alongside 2019 first-rounder Keoni Cavaco at Eastlake. Chatter within the industry is that the slick-handed infielder likely goes either third (Detroit), fourth (Boston) or fifth (Baltimore).

 

EDITOR'S PICKS

 

'House made some money tonight': How one high school game could change the MLB draft

 

Who is 2021 MLB draft's No. 1 pitching prospect? Scouting Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker

 

Predicting the next MLB Rank top 100 player for all 30 MLB teams

4. Kumar Rocker (21.6), RHP, Vanderbilt, 50 FV

 

You could argue Rocker belongs at any slot in this second tier, either near the top by leaning on his elite track record, or near the bottom by leaning more on his recent raw stuff. It's going to be dependent on the team we're talking about at each pick, with some strong buzz that Detroit at No. 3 and Kansas City at No. 7 are his most likely landing spots. There's no telling what happens with regard to bonus demands (Rocker is rumored to have turned down big money out of high school and rightfully was seen as the 1-1 favorite a year ago) if he gets past the third pick. Mark Appel's journey as an amateur prospect (No. 8 overall in 2012, didn't sign with Pittsburgh, went No. 1 overall in 2013) is one relevant precedent if Rocker doesn't regain his velocity.

 

5. Gunnar Hoglund (21.6), RHP, Ole Miss, 50 FV

 

Hoglund was a mid-first-round prospect entering the spring, then came out firing at 93-96 early in starts with a scouting card littered with 55s and 60s. His four pitches all grade out as 55s, so that's why he isn't right on Leiter's tail, but he's got a good shot to be first to the big leagues in this class and his qualities (good stuff, great feel, great numbers in the SEC, long track record of health, clean delivery/arm action) seem to be appreciated similarly by every team regardless of its evaluative leanings.

 

6. Henry Davis (21.8), C, Louisville, 50 FV

 

Davis has really improved and won over doubters this spring, with some hanging 55 hit tool, 60 game power and 65 or 70 raw power, with the performance this year to match those tool grades. He has an Evan Gattis-ish strength-based look to his swing, whereas scouts generally prefer the loose, big-bat-speed type of swing, but that's getting nitpicky for an elite prospect. This at the plate from a first base-only prospect would likely land him around this area in the draft, but he has a little bit of background playing third base (solidly for some scouts), and while a little rough receiving behind the plate, he has a legit 80-grade arm and has plenty of skill in an automatic strike-calling future that might be coming in 2022.

 

Given the upside of a middle-of-the-order bat who can be a solid catcher in that new reality, Davis is a candidate to get run up even higher on the board. For reference, I prefer him to Heston Kjerstad (last year's underslot No. 2 overall pick by the Orioles, a 45+ FV for me then and now) as a hitter, not to mention the higher defensive upside.

 

7. Brady House (18.1), SS, Winder Barrow HS (Georgia), Tennessee commit, 50 FV

 

You can read more about House in this story about his huge matchup last week, but he has had a strong spring and still has 70 raw power, 60 bat speed, deceptive athleticism and some shot to stick at shortstop.

 

8. Sal Frelick (21.2), CF, Boston College, 50 FV

 

Frelick is small (listed a 5-foot-9, 170 pounds) and some scouts still can't get the top-10-pick kind of excited about a player of that size. The vast majority think he's a slam-dunk member of this consensus top eight, with 70-grade speed, above-average bat speed, average raw power, at least a 55 hit tool and the multisport background and mentality that make it easier to project improvement.

 

Tier 3

9. Kahlil Watson (18.2), SS, Wake Forest HS (North Carolina), NC State commit, 45+ FV

 

Watson is arguably the best hitter in the prep class, he had a strong summer at a number of events, and he's young for the class. Those three facts will help him a ton in the draft models every team is using, with maybe a dozen clubs that lean on them hard. Watson is generally seen as a second baseman long-term and is only a solid-average runner, with above-average raw power he hasn't gotten to in games much yet.

 

Ranking MLB's current aces

 

What is an ace? Well, that's complicated. So we set specific criteria and identified the pitchers who fit.

 

Kiley McDaniel's ace rankings

 

10. Jackson Jobe (18.9), RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma), Ole Miss commit, 45+ FV

 

Jobe was right behind Painter off of the summer, but was the smaller (6-foot-1 or so), more athletic (a real prospect as a position player) type with insane spin rates (over 3,000 RPM on his breaking ball). He has come out even stronger this spring, with some scouts hanging 65 or 70 grades on all three pitches, with only the rightful stigma/risk profile of prep righty as a negative to consider.

 

11. Matt McLain (21.9), 2B, UCLA, 45 FV

 

McLain didn't sign out of high school after being a first-round pick by the Diamondbacks and has had some ups and downs at UCLA, ultimately not making a ton of overall progress on campus similar to last year's first-rounder Garrett Mitchell. McLain has more power now but is not a shortstop for almost any scout now, and his offensive production hasn't matched his upside though there were some signs he might be turning the corner in recent weeks. His younger brother Nick is a prep senior this year and might work his way into the top three rounds.

 

12. Ty Madden (21.3), RHP, Texas, 45 FV

 

Madden gets his heater into the upper 90s, goes deep into games with gaudy strikeout numbers, and has a plus slider and a sturdy 6-foot-3 frame; I think that completes Texas power pitcher bingo.

 

13. Sam Bachman (21.8), RHP, Miami (Ohio), 45 FV

 

Bachman exploded out of the gates early this spring, hitting 100 mph often (or higher in some cases), with a breaking ball that many scouts have called a 70-grade offering. He has had some arm soreness, has a short track record, isn't facing great competition and comes with some reliever risk, but generally fits the trends within the game and looks ticketed for the top 20 picks.

 

14. Adrian Del Castillo (21.8), C, Miami, 45 FV

 

Del Castillo doesn't really light up any scouts, but he's a good-enough catcher with advanced feel to hit and some raw power but more doubles-type power in games right now. That might not inspire you with all these gaudy tools around him on the list, but every-day catchers don't slide far in the draft.

 

15. Andrew Painter (18.3), RHP, Calvary Christian HS (Florida), Florida commit, 45 FV

 

Painter was the consensus top prep arm in the class over the summer, with a bag of 55-grade pitches and the frame, delivery and feel to project as a mid-rotation starter. He came out of the gates a bit slow but has come on of late, with his mid-90s heater and slider grading as a 60 in some games.

 

16. Ryan Cusick (21.7), RHP, Wake Forest, 45 FV

 

Cusick has the best fastball in the draft, with the bat-missing, backspinning four-seam style that analysts love, up to 100 mph at times, and working in the mid-90s deep into starts. His curveball has below-average spin but plays at least above average in games. His changeup is a nonentity and his command is below average; if a team thinks it can fix both, then he'll go ahead of this slot. He's more likely a quick-moving, high-leverage reliever who can go multiple innings if needed.

 

17. Jordan Wicks (21.9), LHP, Kansas State, 45 FV

 

Wicks is the top college lefty with the next one ranked No. 64, so scarcity should help his case in the first round. He came out getting into the mid-90s early in the spring, but works around 90-92 now, with a fringe-to-average slider, but a plus changeup that's his separator.

 

18. Harry Ford (18.4), C, North Cobb HS (Georgia), Georgia Tech commit, 45 FV

 

I've often said I don't like picking from the demographic of high school catching early, but Ford has the qualities to make me consider it. He's built like a power lifter but with the elite flexibility to make that work behind the plate, where he'll be an above-average defender who is deceptively at least an above-average runner. He was strong over the summer, adjusted his swing in a bad way this spring and is now in the middle of adjusting it back with the potential for plus raw power.

 

19. Will Taylor (18.5), CF, Dutch Fork HS (South Carolina), Clemson commit, 45 FV

 

Taylor is a state championship quarterback, three-time state champion wrestler and now a consensus first-round talent as a center fielder. He's committed to Clemson for baseball and football, though likely to play a slot receiver role. He was solid over the summer as a dynamic athlete and 70 runner who made a lot of contact, then he came out this spring with a more developed upper body and 55-grade raw power.

 

20. Bubba Chandler (18.8), SS/RHP, North Oconee HS (Georgia), Clemson commit, 45 FV

 

Chandler is also committed to Clemson but as a quarterback (Dabo Sweeney is not happy with baseball scouts right now) and is a top-50-pick talent as both a switch-hitting infielder and pitcher, though the vast majority of teams prefer him on the mound. He'll sit 93-96 and hit 97 mph early in starts and flash solid-average off-speed pitches with a solid delivery and feel, despite limited reps. Having a real backup option if the position you select him for doesn't work out might get him picked 10-12 slots higher than a comparable prospect.

 

Kiley McDaniel's 2021 top MLB prospects

 

The best prospect since Mike Trout leads our rankings. Where do your team's future stars land on the list?

 

Top 100 prospects for 2021 »

 

Ranking all 30 farm systems »

 

2021 breakout candidates »

 

Top 10s by team: AL » | NL »

 

21. Jaden Hill (21.6), RHP, LSU, 45 FV

 

Hill was a top-five prospect entering the year despite very few reps in college due to various injuries and the pandemic. He was a bit up-and-down, with some issues around precision and execution (still up to 98 mph, with a 55-grade breaker and 70-grade changeup) and had Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago. I'd expect a bonus for a pick around this area (around $3 million), but likely selected with a team's second pick.

 

22. Lonnie White Jr. (18.5), CF, Malvern Prep HS (Pennsylvania), Penn State commit, 45 FV

 

White is a wide receiver commit to Penn State, with more of a running back build than the traditional lanky wide receiver. Some scouts think his type of speed plays down a bit on the diamond and will eventually force a move to right field, but he has plus raw power, big exit velos over the summer, a plus arm and real bat speed, so even those scouts see a candidate for the first or compensation rounds.

 

23. Benny Montgomery (18.8), CF, Red Land HS (Pennsylvania), Virginia commit, 45 FV

 

Montgomery has a hand hitch of sorts in his swing but possesses the tools to go ahead of this spot and performed well over the summer. Early buzz from the first wave of evaluators going into Pennsylvania to see him, White and Morales is positive on all three of them.

 

24. Jackson Baumeister (19.0), RHP, Bolles HS (Florida), Florida State commit, 45 FV

 

Baumeister has helium with a strong month of performances in some high-profile matchups, and as a very good athlete with big projection, excellent extension and above-average pitches, command and feel for pitching, despite limited innings. I see a lot of similarities with Jack Flaherty at the same stage.

 

25. Tommy Mace (22.7), RHP, Florida, 45 FV

 

Mace has been a steady performer over the years, taking a step forward with the shape and style of his stuff this year after spurning mid-second-round money last year. He's old for the class but is one of the more polished prospects in the draft.

 

Tier 4

26. Alex Binelas (21.1), 3B, Louisville

 

27. Alex Mooney (19.0), SS, St. Mary's Prep HS (Michigan), Duke commit

 

28. James Wood (18.8), RF, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Mississippi State commit

 

29. Thatcher Hurd (18.6), RHP, Mira Costa HS (California), UCLA commit

 

30. Joe Mack (18.5), C, Williamsville East HS (New York), Clemson commit

 

31. Ben Kudrna (18.4), RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS (Kansas), LSU commit

 

32. Chase Petty (18.3), RHP, Mainland Regional HS (New Jersey), Florida commit

 

33. Josh Hartle (18.3), LHP, Reagan HS (North Carolina), Wake Forest commit

 

34. Jud Fabian (20.8), CF, Florida

 

35. Tyler Black (21.0), 2B, Wright State

 

36. Peyton Wilson (21.7), 2B, Alabama

 

37. Izaac Pacheco (18.6), 3B, Friendswood HS (Texas), Texas A&M commit

 

38. Tyler Whitaker (18.9), RF, Bishop Gorman HS (Nevada), Arizona commit

 

39. Josh Baez (18.0), RF, Dexter Southfield HS (Massachusetts), Vanderbilt commit

 

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40. Will Bednar (21.1), RHP, Mississippi State

 

41. Colton Cowser (21.2), RF, Sam Houston State

 

42. Michael McGreevy (21.0), RHP, UC Santa Barbara

 

43. Michael Morales (18.8), RHP, East Pennsboro Area HS (Pennsylvania), Vanderbilt commit

 

44. Gage Jump (18.2), LHP, JSerra Catholic HS (California), UCLA commit

 

45. Luca Tresh (21.5), C, North Carolina State

 

46. Wes Clarke (21.7), 1B, South Carolina

 

47. Cooper Kinney (18.5), 3B, Baylor HS (Tennessee), South Carolina commit

 

48. Braden Montgomery (18.2), RF, Madison Central HS (Mississippi), Stanford commit

 

49. Jay Allen (18.6), CF, John Carroll Catholic HS (Florida), Florida commit

 

50. Jonathan Cannon (21.0), RHP, Georgia

 

51. Mike Vasil (21.2), RHP, Virginia

 

52. Peyton Stovall (18.4), 2B, Haughton HS (Louisiana), Arkansas commit

 

53. Maddux Bruns (19.1), LHP, UMS-Wright Prep HS (Alabama), Mississippi State commit

 

54. McCade Brown (21.2), RHP, Indiana

 

55. Anthony Solometo (18.6), LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep HS (New Jersey), North Carolina commit

 

56. Troy Melton (20.6), RHP, San Diego State

 

57. Cody Schrier (18.4), SS, JSerra Catholic HS (California), UCLA commit

 

58. Luke Albright (21.6), RHP, Kent State

 

59. Jac Caglianone (18.4), LHP, Plant HS (Florida), Florida commit

 

60. Trey Sweeney (21.2), SS, Eastern Illinois

 

61. Dylan Smith (21.1), RHP, Alabama

 

62. John Rhodes (20.9), CF, Kentucky

 

63. Ethan Wilson (21.6), LF, South Alabama

 

64. Ryan Webb (22.2), LHP, Georgia

 

65. Colson Montgomery (19.3), SS, Southridge HS (Indiana), Indiana commit

 

66. Max Muncy (18.7), SS, Thousand Oaks HS (California), Arkansas commit

 

67. Drake Varnado (18.6), SS, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Arkansas commit

 

68. Wes Kath (18.9), 3B, Desert Mountain HS (Arizona), Arizona State commit

 

69. Hunter Goodman (21.8), C, Memphis

 

70. Edwin Arroyo (17.9), SS, Central Pointe HS (Florida), Florida State commit

 

71. Jonathan Vastine (18.7), SS, Bartow HS (Florida), Vanderbilt commit

 

72. Philip Abner (19.2), LHP, Charlotte Christian HS (North Carolina), Florida commit

 

73. Bryce Miller (22.9), RHP, Texas A&M

 

74. Christian MacLeod (21.2), LHP, Mississippi State

 

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75. Cody Morissette (21.5), 2B, Boston College

 

76. Ricky Tiedemann (18.9), LHP, Golden West JC (California)

 

77. Carter Holton (18.9), LHP, Benedictine Military HS (Georgia), Vanderbilt commit

 

78. Andrew Abbott (22.1), LHP, Virginia

 

79. Mason Albright (18.6), LHP, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Virginia Tech commit

 

80. Max Ferguson (21.9), 2B, Tennessee

 

81. Ian Moller (18.7), C, Wahlert HS (Iowa), LSU commit

 

82. Malakhi Knight (18.8), RF, Archbishop Murphy HS (Washington), UCLA commit

 

83. Jose Torres (21.8), SS, North Carolina State

 

84. Steven Hajjar (20.9), LHP, Michigan

 

85. Dustin Saenz (22.1), LHP, Texas A&M

 

86. Christian Franklin (21.6), RF, Arkansas

 

87. Joe Rock (21.0), LHP, Ohio

 

88. Kevin Abel (22.3), RHP, Oregon State

 

89. Brock Selvidge (18.9), LHP, Hamilton HS (Arizona), LSU commit

 

2021 MLB Rank Top 100

 

Who is the No. 1 MLB player for the 2021 season? Our experts ranked the 100 best as Opening Day approaches.

 

Top 25 | 26-50 | 51-100

 

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90. Sean Burke (21.6), RHP, Maryland

 

91. Doug Nikhazy (21.9), LHP, Ole Miss

 

92. Drew Gray (18.2), LHP, IMG Academy HS (Florida), Arkansas commit

 

93. Caedmon Parker (18.1), RHP, Woodlands Christian HS (Texas), TCU commit

 

94. Nathan Hickey (21.6), C, Florida

 

95. Noah Miller (18.7), SS, Ozaukee HS (Wisconsin), Alabama commit

 

96. Irv Carter (18.8), RHP, Calvary Christian HS (Florida), Miami commit

 

97. Will Koger (18.7), RHP, Bardstown HS (Kentucky), Louisville commit

 

98. Daylen Lile (18.6), RF, Trinity HS (Kentucky), Louisville commit

 

99. Gavin Williams (22.0), RHP, East Carolina

 

100. Calvin Ziegler (18.8), RHP, TNXL Academy HS (Florida), Auburn commit

 

Just missed

Tyree Reed (18.5), CF, American Canyon HS (California), Oregon State commit

 

Lorenzo Carrier (18.1), CF, Appoquinimink HS (Delaware), Miami commit

 

Peter Heubeck (19.0), RHP, Gilman HS (Maryland), Wake Forest commit

 

Grant Holman (21.1), RHP, Cal

 

Richard Fitts (21.6), RHP, Auburn

 

Seth Lonsway (22.8), LHP, Ohio State

 

Nic Kent (21.3), 3B, Virginia