MLB 2021 Draft

[BlueRocky]

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo’s latest mock

(04-25-21)

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021.html

 

Honestly never been thrilled with the multi-sport athlete picks, this year’s version is Bubba Chandler. Though he’s more of a RHP than SS I think.

 

Joshua Baez or James Wood might be available at 19, which would be fantastic.

 

Would not rule out Kahlil Watson.

 

This is also the highest I’ve seen Benny Montgomery.

 

Matt McLain & Jud Fabian have really fallen.

Edited April 27, 2021 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

Jim Callis has an AMA at r/MLBDraft @6:30 EST if anyone is interested

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

BA Mock 3.0

 

1

pit400x400.JPG

Jack Leiter

Vanderbilt

RHP

Notes:

Leiter looked surprisingly human in his last outing against Mississippi State last weekend, where he took his first loss of the season. But, if no one’s told you, pitcher wins and losses are fairly meaningless and one five-inning outing where Leiter allowed four earned runs and a pair of homers doesn’t take away from everything he’s done previously this season. Leiter was still the first pitcher among Division I arms to reach 100 strikeouts and on the season, opposing batters are hitting just .115/.230/.175 against him. It’s interesting to think about whether or not a college arm like Leiter or his teammate Kumar Rocker—who would both be quick movers—is a better fit for Pittsburgh’s timeline than a prep player like the top two high school shortstops in the class: Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer. For now there’s still no clear-cut, obvious No. 1 player in the class but Leiter is a deserving 1-1 talent and has performed like it so far this season.

 

LESS

2

tex400x400.JPG

Jordan Lawlar

Dallas Jesuit HS

SS

VIDEO

Notes:

A few sources in the industry are starting to think that Lawlar doesn’t get past Texas, but that could simply be the rumor mill based on a talent fit and geography more than a decision the Rangers have locked in with more than two months still between now and the draft. Lawlar’s talent absolutely fits at the top of the draft and unless you are going to nit-pick swing-and-miss concerns, there’s not much of a hole to speak of in the Vanderbilt commit’s game. There was another Texas prep shortstop with some swing-and-miss concerns drafted No. 2 recently and he seems to be working out in pro ball so far.

 

LESS

3

det400x400.JPG

Marcelo Mayer

Eastlake HS, Chula Visa, Calif.

SS

VIDEO

Notes:

We wrote earlier in the year that Mayer was on the cusp of joining the “big three” at the top of the draft class and it appears that he’s solidly in that group of talent now. Detroit had some heavy hitters in to watch Mayer recently and during that look he hit a ball that still might be soaring through the air. In addition to Mayer, we’ve heard the Tigers have been pretty heavy on Georgia high school shortstop Brady House, who’s physicality and power potential could be a match made in heaven for Detroit. So, maybe the Tigers want to add another bat?

 

LESS

4

redsox-900x6351

Kumar Rocker

Vanderbilt

RHP

Notes:

Boston has been in on all of the top four players in the class, and could be in a position where they simply sit back and grab whoever falls to them at No. 4. Mayer would be a nice fit for them if he made it here and it would be surprising if they passed over either Leiter or Lawlar if one were to make it to this spot as well. Perhaps they’ll get a steal with Rocker, who still might be the most famous player in the 2021 draft class—fitting in nicely with fan-favorite Blaze Jordan from the 2020 class. Despite plenty of hand-waving about Rocker’s velocity, he’s been terrific all season and is coming off of a complete game against Mississippi State, where he struck out eight and walked none, while running his fastball up to 98 mph and sitting in the 93-95 mph range. Through 10 starts, Rocker has posted a 1.55 ERA with 89 strikeouts (fourth among D-I pitchers) and has actually walked fewer batters than both Leiter and Mississippi righthander Gunnar Hoglund—both praised for their pitchability and control.

 

LESS

5

bal400x400.JPG

Brady House

Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga.

SS

VIDEO

Notes:

The powers that be in Baltimore seem to really like taking bats when picking this high in the draft, so an interesting scenario would be one where either of the Vanderbilt arms make it out of the top four. Would the Orioles be willing to pass on either of Leiter or Rocker? It’s hard to say with any confidence, but we have heard them linked to bats. Lately we’ve heard House’s name linked with Baltimore quite a bit. It seems like they have been scouting him hard down in Georgia, where he has produced offensively and continued to look good with the glove. His offensive upside is likely greater than anyone left on the board here, with above-average hitting potential and perhaps 70-grade raw power down the line.

 

LESS

6

ari400x400.JPG

Henry Davis

Louisville

C

Notes:

The top five is a lot easier to project at this point than the picks thereafter, as the player pool quickly starts to get much wider. However, the Diamondbacks have shown they value bat-to-ball skills and zone management, and Davis can claim both of those skillsets. He also can boast more power than Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick, which could be a separator if Arizona wants to add a bit of thump at this spot. We’ve heard from some within the industry who believe that might be the case. College performers like Frelick and righthanders Ty Madden and Gunnar Hoglund could also make sense here, and it wouldn’t be crazy to think Miami catcher Adrian Del Castillo gets back into this range with a strong finish to the season—though it seems at the moment his range starts a bit after this spot.

 

LESS

7

kc400x400.JPG

Sal Frelick

Boston College

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

The same names mentioned above with the Diamondbacks make a lot of sense for the Royals at this pick. Frelick is a high-level performer who should do everything on the field outside of hitting for big-time power. That’s more acceptable when you can patrol center field and defend at a high level, control the strike zone, hit for average and steal bags and Frelick does each of these things. Scouts have compared Frelick to Andrew Benintendi, who also was drafted No. 7 overall, and the industry seems to think Frelick will be one of the first three college bats off the board and solidly inside the top 10 at this point. We’ve also heard the Royals have been in on Georgia high school catcher Harry Ford, and if they want him it’s unlikely he falls to them in the second round at pick No. 43.

 

LESS

8

col400x400.JPG

Adrian Del Castillo

Miami

C

Notes:

It seems like Del Castillo’s range is starting right around here as of April 28 and the Rockies had national-level scouts in to see him this past weekend against North Carolina, where he hit in every game, going 4-for-13 with a couple of doubles. It’s unclear what the departure of general manager Jeff Bridich will mean for the team’s draft philosophy, but with a farm system that ranks 25th in baseball perhaps a safe, reliable pick like Del Castillo makes some sense? Most in the industry view his bat as extremely reliable to play at the next level, and while more home run production this season would be nice to see—he’s currently slugging a career-worst .462 with just four homers—it’s hard to find an evaluator that doesn’t think the Miami backstop will hit.

 

LESS

9

laa400x400.JPG

Ty Madden

Texas

RHP

Notes:

Madden and Mississippi righthander Gunnar Hoglund seem neck and neck to become the third college pitcher selected. The Texas righthander is coming off of a 12-strikeout game against Oklahoma State and has posted at least five innings every week of the season outside of a four-inning effort against Mississippi State in his season debut. His fastball seems to have bat-missing traits on top of velocity that sits in the mid 90s and touches 98-99 mph; his slider is the sort of plus breaking ball that teams typically want to see from the elite college arms in the class; and his changeup could become a solid third offering when he actually begins to use it more frequently at the next level. Through 10 starts and 64.1 innings Madden has posted a 1.68 ERA, struck out 77 batters (10.8 K/9) and walked 22 (3.1 BB/9).

 

LESS

10

nym400x400.JPG

Gunnar Hoglund

Mississippi

RHP

Notes:

The Mets have been high school heavy with their recent first-round picks, so perhaps players like righthander Jackson Jobe or shortstop Kahlil Watson are of interest here. At the same time, Hoglund’s talent fits inside the top-10 picks according to most sources we’ve spoken with. He has the best fastball command and likely the best overall command in the class, his stuff ticked up this spring and he has a terrific track record dating back to his high school days. After missing his last start he’s worth keeping an eye on moving forward, but if he comes back and continues pitching like he has over his first nine starts, he seems like a safe bet to go inside the top-10 picks. Even with his missed start, Hoglund is tied for fifth among Division I arms with 87 strikeouts this season.

 

LESS

11

was400x400.JPG

Jackson Jobe

Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City, Okla.

RHP

Notes:

Jobe seems to be the sole high school pitcher who is getting top 10 chatter at this point, but every season it seems like prep righthanders slide down the board. The last two years the first prep righthander went 15th (Mick Abel) and 18th (Quinn Priester), respectively, and Jobe doesn’t seem to be in a completely different phylum of player than either of those two—despite his superior feel for spin. However, with fewer college hitters to pick between perhaps that pushes up riskier demographics. It’s also worth wondering how the delayed draft will impact the helium of players like Jobe, who will be done pitching quite a bit before draft day arrives. Either way, the Nationals haven’t exactly been risk-averse with their recent first-round picks and could continue to chase big-time upside with Jobe.

 

LESS

12

sea400x400.JPG

Colton Cowser

Sam Houston State

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

Seattle has spent the last three years taking college arms with their first pick, but with Madden and Hoglund off the board, perhaps they steer towards a college hitter who is trending in the right direction. Cowser is unique among hitters in the 2021 class in that he actually has a reasonably extensive track record as a member of USA Baseball’s collegiate national team in 2019. He’s been hitting well over the past month, showing more in-game power than he has in the past and with a continued strong finish could easily play his way ahead of this pick. In a draft year where teams are longing for college bats, Cowser is sitting here with performance, track record, a center field profile and developing power.

 

LESS

13

phi400x400.JPG

Kahlil Watson

Wake Forest (N.C.) HS

SS

VIDEO

Notes:

Watson seems to have the toolset, athleticism and defensive profile that doesn’t last long in the draft—even in a deep high school shortstop class. He has a chance for above-average hitting ability, solid power, above-average defense at shortstop with 60 or better running ability and a strong arm as well. There’s not much in the package to not like, and his performance last summer against some of the better arms in the class impressed much of the scouting community.

 

LESS

14

sf400x400.JPG

Bubba Chandler

North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga.

RHP/SS

VIDEO

Notes:

If Hoglund somehow winds up available on the board here, it would be surprising for him to fall further than this pick. The Mississippi righthander seems to share some of the qualities that former Braves scouting director Brian Bridges had success with in his pitching selections with Atlanta, and of course now Bridges is a national crosschecker with San Francisco. With Hoglund off the board, however, let’s go for Chandler, who we’ve also heard the Giants have been scouting pretty heavily. Chandler is among the most athletic players in the class and is also a talented football player, and Giants scouting director Michael Holmes was an assistant scouting director with the Athletics when they took Kyler Murray with the No. 9 pick in 2018.

 

LESS

15

New Brewers Logo (1)

Benny Montgomery

Red Land HS, Lewisberry, Pa.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

Montgomery is arguably the most toolsy player in the 2021 class, and if he’s the pick for the Brewers at this spot, that would mark back-to-back years where Milwaukee gets the most toolsy hitter in the class after taking outfielder Garrett Mitchell last year. Somewhere in the middle of the first round seems like the range where Montgomery is likely to go off the board at this point, based on chatter we’ve heard so far.

 

LESS

16

mia400x400.jpg (1)

Matt McLain

UCLA

SS

Notes:

McLain is currently riding a 14-game hitting streak and the nine home runs he’s tallied are already good for a career high. He could be a college hitter who trends up boards with a strong finish, but most upper-level scouts seem to agree that he doesn’t have the sort of upside or toolset typical of a top-of-the-class bat. He does provide value in plenty of ways, between his plus running ability and arm strength that should allow him to play multiple up-the-middle premium positions including shortstop and center field.

 

LESS

17

cin400x400.JPG

Jordan Wicks

Kansas State

LHP

Notes:

This Wicks selection would be reminiscent of Cincinnati taking Texas Christian lefthander Nick Lodolo as the first pitcher off the board in the 2019 class, though Wicks’ double-plus changeup is a louder offering than anything Lodolo had in his arsenal at the same time. Wicks is like many players in this range who could come off the board at any point in the middle of the first round, and what he might lack in front-of-the-rotation upside he makes up for by being as close to a sure-thing big league arm as you’ll find in the class outside of Rocker/Leiter. The Reds should be able to get creative in this year’s draft with the fourth-largest bonus pool and two picks shortly after the first round. Given a deep crop of players who fit in this range, could they find an underslot deal with someone they like and then put more money towards a talented player who is sliding—Jud Fabian, Alex Binelas?—or a high-upside high school player in the 30s? We’ll see how they use their pool money, but they are perhaps the team to watch outside of the top 10.

 

LESS

18

stl400x400.JPG

Harry Ford

North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, Ga.

C

VIDEO

Notes:

Could St. Louis go back into the Georgia high school hitter well in 2021 after taking Jordan Walker last year with the 21st pick? This seems like a fair range for Ford, who is a freak athlete for a catcher, with the tools to stick there if a team wanted to develop him behind the plate, but the running ability and body control to play a number of other premium positions, including second, third or center field if a team wanted. He might not make it this far, as some teams inside the top 10 seem to be scouting him heavily and with enough interested teams throughout the 10-20 range.

 

LESS

19

tor400x400.JPG

Sam Bachman

Miami (Ohio)

RHP

Notes:

If we’re just looking at pure stuff, Bachman likely shouldn’t last this long. However, it’s a pretty good year for college pitchers, and with a number of premium high school athletes in the class as well, perhaps Toronto finds itself a pair of 70-grade pitches with Bachman at No. 19. Wherever Bachman winds up, he should become the highest-drafted player out of Miami (Ohio).

 

LESS

20

nyy400x400.JPG

Ryan Cusick

Wake Forest

RHP

Notes:

New York has plenty of flamethrowers in its farm system, and this pick would give it arguably the best fastball in the 2021 class. On top of velocity that’s consistently in the 94-99 mph range and has gotten into the triple-digits, Cusick’s heater plays up and gets a tremendous amount of whiffs in the zone. He’s shown feel to spin a good breaking ball but the pitch is inconsistent. His pure stuff gives him a big league path even if he isn’t able to start long term, but if he can throw enough strikes to start, the upside is significant. This pick would give Wake Forest back-to-back first round pitchers, after the Braves took lefthander Jared Shuster with the No. 25 pick last year.

 

LESS

21

chc400x400.JPG

James Wood

IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

OF

Notes:

There’s been some chatter within scouting circles that Wood is sliding and his selection here by the Cubs could represent one of the bigger steals of the class. Wood has some of the biggest pure upside in the 2021 class thanks to his power potential, athleticism, bat speed and size—it wasn’t long ago that he was considered a potential top-five pick by some scouts. He performed well over the summer and showed power against top pitchers, but he’s shown more swing and miss than some scouts are comfortable with this spring. Perhaps this is a case of nit-picking or prospect fatigue, because as one upper-level scout put it, “if he didn’t swing and miss he would be going 1-1.”

 

LESS

22

cws400x400.JPG

Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

Painter is another high schooler out of Florida who is probably lower on the board than you would have thought back in January. He is no longer the consensus top arm in the class thanks to Jobe’s development, but he is still solidly a first round talent. It would be difficult to find a high school pitcher with his combination of a solid four-pitch mix, size and advanced command of his entire arsenal.

 

LESS

23

cle400x400.JPG

Michael McGreevy

UC Santa Barbara

RHP

Notes:

McGreevy has one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios of any Division I pitcher in the country, and if there’s one thing the Indians like it seems to be command-oriented pitchers. And why wouldn’t they, considering some of the names currently locking down spots in their big league rotation? On top of that, McGreevy is young for the class. It’s hard to get more of a Cleveland vibe than this.

 

LESS

24

atl400x400.JPG

Joshua Baez

Dexter Southfield HS, Brookline, Mass.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

As Ben Badler noted in a draft notebook today, the Braves had a few decision-makers in to see Baez in a recent doubleheader, where he left the yard twice. Baez could find homes throughout the second half of the first round, but Atlanta seems like one of many teams invested in him at this point. Baez has some of the best raw power in the class and massive arm strength that could fit in a corner, but also has good instincts in center field at the moment.

 

LESS

25

oak400x400.JPG

Joe Mack

Williamsville East HS, East Amherst, N.Y.

C

VIDEO

Notes:

Mack has some similarities to Tyler Soderstrom, whom the Athletics took last year with the 26th pick. This would feel a lot like deja vu if it were to happen, but like Soderstrom, Mack has the offensive chops to handle another position if he has to move off of catcher. A lefthanded power bat with feel to hit and a chance to catch is a good get even if you just popped that exact profile a year prior, and it feels like the riskier high school catching profile is the defensive-oriented one—which Mack is not.

 

LESS

26

min400x400.JPG

Ethan Wilson

South Alabama

OF

Notes:

Minnesota has taken a number of offensive-oriented corner-type profiles in recent years and its farm system is chock full of those players right now. Still, it’s a top-10 farm system in baseball so perhaps this is one of those “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it” scenarios where you happily take a productive college bat you can feel good about. Wilson started the season slowly, but he’s trending in the right direction, hitting .328/.442/.531 through 36 games, with more walks than strikeouts for the first time in his career.

 

LESS

27

New Padres Logo

Will Taylor

Dutch Fork High School, Irmo, S.C.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

San Diego is one of several teams that had a few decision-makers running through the Northeast recently to see some of the better high school talents in the area. Benny Montgomery was one such player and his toolset and general upside profile fit San Diego’s tendencies perfectly. It’s unlikely Montgomery makes it to this pick, similar to Bubba Chandler, who could also fit San Diego’s M.O. and who we’ve heard it likes quite a bit. There’s no shortage of upside, toolsy athletes in this year’s prep class though, so what about Taylor, who is a double-plus runner and high school quarterback who swung the bat well last summer?

 

LESS

28

tb400x400.JPG

Jay Allen

Carroll Catholic, Fort Pierce, Fla.

OF

VIDEO

Notes:

Tired of multi-sport players going in the first round? Hopefully not. Allen is another multi-sport athlete in the class who’s a talented basketball player and quarterback when he’s not on the diamond. On top of that, Allen stepped right on the field this spring and hit the ground running, hitting the ball well in front of plenty of scouts before his basketball season even fully finished. Allen has the speed and instincts defensively to become a good defender in center field, and he impressed with his hitting ability last summer as well. There are some questions about how much power he’ll access in the long run, but he has everyday tools and plenty of upside remaining once he’s focused exclusively on baseball.

 

LESS

29

lad400x400.JPG

Chase Petty

Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, N.J.

RHP

VIDEO

Notes:

Petty has been hitting 100 mph in high school games this spring and perhaps ten years ago that would have been good enough for him to be a locked-in, no-doubt, top-10 pick in the draft. That isn’t the case these days, however, and while Petty might still go higher than this, the Dodgers were one of many teams to bring some scouting heat in to see him last week.

[Daniel Labude]

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo’s latest mock

(04-25-21)

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/mock-mlb-draft-2021.html

 

Honestly never been thrilled with the multi-sport athlete picks, this year’s version is Bubba Chandler. Though he’s more of a RHP than SS I think.

 

Joshua Baez or James Wood might be available at 19, which would be fantastic.

 

Would not rule out Kahlil Watson.

 

This is also the highest I’ve seen Benny Montgomery.

 

Matt McLain & Jud Fabian have really fallen.

 

Fabian has picked it up a lot since the slow start

[BlueRocky]

Yep hearing Fabian sneaking back up into first round stock. Though hard to see him a top 5 pick now.

[Slade]

I don't know the more and more I look into the draft the less enthused I am with a lot of the mid tier college guys. I like Bubba Chandler on the mound, I think he has a great pitcher body but I have such irrational hate for anyone with the name Bubba. Plus we really don't have a huge presence in GA.

 

These are the guys I am looking for, Josh Baez and Kahlil Watson at the top.

 

Sam Bachman

Michael McGreevy

 

Josh Baez

Kahlil Watson

James Wood

Andrew Painter

Will Taylor

Chase Petty

Thatcher Hurd

Edited April 30, 2021 by Slade

[Krylian]

I don't know the more and more I look into the draft the less enthused I am with a lot of the mid tier college guys. I like Bubba Chandler on the mound, I think he has a great pitcher body but I have such irrational hate for anyone with the name Bubba.

 

 

How can anyone hate Bubba?

 

[BlueRocky]

[Daniel Labude]

 

 

Here was the first off Leiter tonight

[Daniel Labude]

 

Here was the first off Leiter tonight

 

2 more homers again tonight for Fabian against UK. I should have gone to the game lol

[Daniel Labude]

[Brownie19]

Just read they scratched Leiter just 2 hours prior to his scheduled start last Saturday. They claimed they were monitoring his innings, but the timing seems odd.

[Krylian]

Just read they scratched Leiter just 2 hours prior to his scheduled start last Saturday. They claimed they were monitoring his innings, but the timing seems odd.

 

The only finished calculating how many innings he pitched 2 hours before the game. Sounds legit.

[Slade]

Kiley McDaniel's latest mock draft.

 

We're two months out from the first day of the 2021 MLB draft (July 11-13), and things are starting to come into focus, both in terms of ranking prospects and connecting players, or at least types of players, with teams in the first round.

 

This draft class is down a bit because it lacks a slam dunk No. 1 overall pick and because the group of flawed players starts around a dozen players in, which is a little earlier than usual.

 

The crop of college position players is a clear weakness of this draft class, while the group of high school position players is one of the notable strengths. Because of this and the impact of the pandemic on scouting, I think you'll see prep hitters with a long track record of hitting treated like college hitters traditionally are. Meanwhile, college hitters don't have their usual two or three years plus a recent summer of performance, due to the pandemic, so there is less information associated with them than usual.

 

Here's how I see the first 29 picks (remember, the Houston Astros again do not have a first-round draft pick this year) playing out right now.

 

 

See full 2021 draft order here | Top 100 prospects

 

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit H.S. (TX), Vanderbilt commit

 

Lawlar is still the favorite to go first, partly because he fits Pittsburgh's organizational focus (upside, regardless of how long it takes). He's also the best prospect at the moment, despite some swing-and-misses in high school games. He's a 6-foot-2 shortstop who is a plus runner with above-average hit and power tools. Only a handful of prospects like that are in the minors right now.

 

play

2:21

Who should the Pirates take with the top pick in the MLB draft?Jeff Passan lists the four players he expects to be in contention for the No. 1 pick in the 2021 MLB draft.

 

2. Texas Rangers

Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

Leiter has proved mortal in his past few outings and was a late scratch against Alabama last weekend, but indications are that it's nothing serious. The Rangers need dynamic talent in their system, and this may be the easiest pick in the draft because Texas will decide based on whichever -- Lawler or Leiter -- Pittsburgh passes on.

 

 

3. Detroit Tigers

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake H.S. (CA), USC commit

 

Mayer is a fluid defender with advanced feel for contact and above-average power potential in a projectable 6-3 frame. There isn't an outrageous 70-grade tool, but basically everything else is here, and you can't rule out one showing up later.

 

EDITOR'S PICKS

 

Breaking down the historic seasons of Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker

 

The new Moneyball? Two MLB teams everyone else is copying when evaluating prospects

 

'House made some money tonight': How one high school game could change the MLB draft

Detroit has been on Mayer heavy, and he's the leading candidate to go third, but the Tigers are known to put enormous weight on SEC performance and love power pitchers, so either of the Vandy arms is still a possibility. They've also been in deep on multiple occasions, including GM Al Avila, to see Brady House.

 

 

4. Boston Red Sox

Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

 

I wouldn't say that Rocker is exactly Chaim Bloom's type, per se, but there's widespread industry speculation that the Red Sox are likely to take Rocker if he's available, which he's expected to be. His velocity has rebounded a bit since dipping in March, but his last outing vs. Alabama was less than stellar.

 

 

5. Baltimore Orioles

Henry Davis, C, Louisville

 

Davis may be the best hit/power/performance combination in the draft, and he has a real shot, in baseball's automatic-strike-calling future, to do it at the most valuable position on the field. He's not a very good receiver but can catch the ball well enough to stay at the position. Offensively, Davis has plus-plus raw power with an effective, strength-based swing that has crushed the ACC this year. GM Mike Elias has been in to see House a few times, and the O's are rumored to be high on Mayer as well, with almost no chance they take a pitcher at this pick. Seriously, look at their last two drafts.

 

If you're wondering if Adley Rutschman means the O's won't take Davis, I don't think it does. Davis has played a little bit of third base in the past (and done so capably), and even rotating the two of them between DH, first base and maybe left field should work to get both bats in the lineup. In the batter's box alone, I think Davis is better than Heston Kjerstad -- whom Baltimore took with the No. 2 overall pick last year as a right fielder.

 

 

6. Arizona Diamondbacks

Sal Frelick, CF, Boston College

 

It's unclear exactly what the Diamondbacks do here, but Frelick fits their preferences perfectly. Davis is a nice fit as well, and House doesn't really fit them at all. Looking at Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Matt McLain, you can see the trend in up-the-middle contact-first shorter-armed types, and Frelick is exactly that. He's a 70 runner with at least average raw power, above-average contact skills and some background playing the infield if they want to move him to second base at some point. Due to his size, I don't think Frelick goes much higher than this, but I also don't think he gets out of the top 10.

 

 

7. Kansas City Royals

Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow H.S. (GA), Tennessee commit

 

House is in play for the Tigers and Orioles, but this is his sweet spot as he's very likely to go in the top 10 picks. I wrote up his heavily scouted matchup with top 2022 prep arm Dylan Lesko and why teams are concerned about his contact rate against pro-level stuff, but not really anything else. The parallels to Bobby Witt Jr. (dynamic, tooled-up infielder with huge power, three years of national scouting track record) are compelling, and those two would strike a nice balance with the Royals' recent run of college pitchers with top picks. It's unlikely, but it should be mentioned that the Royals would do backflips if Rocker somehow got to this pick.

 

 

8. Colorado Rockies

Editor's Note: Hoglund will need Tommy John surgery on his right arm according to a source on Tuesday afternoon, which would make UCLA's Matt McLain the most likely pick for Colorado at No. 8 and drop Hoglund to the 15-25 range of Round 1.

 

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

 

Hoglund walked off the mound in the first inning of Friday's start due to what his coach called forearm stiffness after the game. It isn't clear yet how serious this is, so I'll operate as though he'll be fine until we know for sure. With Rocker's recent velocity bounce-back, Hoglund was generally seen as the third college arm, just ahead of the Cusick/Madden/Bachman group. That likely puts him outside of the top five but securely in the top half of the first round.

 

The State of Baseball

 

Are games too long? How can baseball maximize its new generation of stars? We dig into the topics that will shape the game far beyond this season. The State of Baseball »

 

His diagnosis obviously could adjust this, but his stuff fits the Rockies' stated preference to lean toward sinker-type fastballs rather than four-seamers. It sounds like House is a leading possibility if he makes it to this pick.

 

 

9. Los Angeles Angels

Bubba Chandler, SS/RHP, North Oconee H.S. (GA), Clemson commit

 

The Angels have been all over Chandler all spring, and the chatter is that they prefer him as a switch-hitting shortstop, where some scouts have suggested physical and swing similarities to a certain former switch-hitting Braves legend and Hall of Famer that I won't name. Making it even more intriguing is that most teams seem to prefer Chandler on the mound, where he's up to 97 mph and flashes a solid three-pitch mix with some feel despite limited baseball reps. He's also committed to Clemson to play quarterback and shortstop. One more element on the intrigue-o-meter is that Kumar Rocker also went to North Oconee three years ago.

 

The fascinating question is if the consensus view of Chandler is a mid-to-late first-round pitcher and a compensation-to-second-round position player, do you take him in the top half of the first round because he can do both, giving you a backup plan? Do you let him do both in pro ball? We still haven't totally answered that question with Shohei Ohtani.

 

 

10. New York Mets

Matt McLain, 2B, UCLA

 

McLain broke his thumb last week and will miss at least a few weeks, but I ultimately don't think it'll affect his draft stock two months from now. McLain got off to a slow start this spring before heating up the last month or so.

 

 

11. Washington Nationals

Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall H.S. (OK), Ole Miss commit

 

Jobe was up to 99 mph in his last outing and, for some scouts, has three plus pitches headlined by his 3,000-plus rpm two-plane breaking ball. He's not huge but possesses incredible stuff with solid arm action and delivery. He could go as high as No. 6 to Arizona, but medium-framed prep righties can be a risky proposition, so I could also see him sliding as far as a few picks behind this.

 

 

12. Seattle Mariners

Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

 

Cusick is probably a reliever, but he's been up to 100 mph with the best fastball in the draft (the exact type who gets whiffs up in the zone) and a 55-maybe-60 grade breaking ball, but no real usable third pitch and 45-grade command. It's unlikely he solves the command and third pitch enough to be a 180-inning starter, but he could be a late-inning and/or multi-inning relief option pretty quickly. I would expect a college player to be the pick here.

 

 

13. Philadelphia Phillies

Benny Montgomery, CF, Red Land H.S. (PA), Virginia commit

 

Montgomery is one of the bigger risers in recent weeks, as high-level scouts have been running through to see the unusually high dozen or so notable potential early-round picks at northeastern high schools. Montgomery had a quirky hand pump in his swing but otherwise was an elite prospect over the summer. He's now toned that down a bit, letting his above-average contact skills and speed stand out.

 

 

14. San Francisco Giants

Colton Cowser, CF, Sam Houston State

 

2021 MLB draft rankings 2.0

 

There are two prospects in a tier of their own atop our list. Is Jordan Lawlar or Jack Leiter No. 1 in our top 100?

 

Kiley McDaniel

 

Cowser got on the national radar during the summer after his freshman year, playing for Team USA and standing out as one of the best pure hitters -- but a bit of a tweener in terms of power/speed -- on a team of high draftees. He's still benefiting from that familiarity with scouts given his mid-major spring competition while developing a little more power, performing well and looking like he can play center field for some teams. All of this has helped him make his way into mid-first-round discussions.

 

 

15. Milwaukee Brewers

Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami Ohio

 

Bachman is exciting -- and a little risky -- as a relatively late pop-up arm who is over 100 mph with a 70-grade breaking ball but some reliever-ish vibes to the delivery and some minor dings this spring.

 

 

16. Miami Marlins

Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest H.S. (NC), North Carolina State commit

 

Watson was arguably the best overall hitter on the showcase circuit last summer, but has come out of the gates a little slowly in a later-than-usual start to the North Carolina prep season. He's only an average runner, and my guess is that he ends up at second base, but there's above-average raw power and potential for a plus hitter. Typically when the industry misses the evaluation on a prep hitter, it's because they considered a poor spring too much over a strong summer, so I wouldn't expect Watson to slide that far.

 

 

17. Cincinnati Reds

Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian H.S. (FL), Florida commit

 

Painter is the consensus second-best prep arm behind Jobe, and Painter checks all the basic boxes with size, delivery, above average-to-plus stuff and track record. There isn't a knockout 70-grade pitch, and the prep righty demographic is scary, but he's doing almost everything he can do.

 

 

18. St. Louis Cardinals

Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

 

Madden is a big power righty from Texas that relies on a standout fastball/slider combination. He is generally seen as likely to fit at picks eight to twelve as a safer college arm with some stuff and performance, but a number of teams aren't as enthusiastic about him in that area (I won't spend time in the mock breaking down his vertical approach angle). If someone slides a half-dozen picks from general expectations, he's a decent guess.

 

 

19. Toronto Blue Jays

Harry Ford, C, North Cobb H.S. (GA), Georgia Tech commit

 

Ford is from the risk-laden subset of high school catchers, but has the components to make teams more comfortable: standout athleticism, speed, defensive skills and contact skills. He's also got above-average raw power and has been steadily improving his swing mechanics throughout the spring.

 

 

20. New York Yankees

Will Taylor, CF, Dutch Fork H.S. (SC), Clemson commit

 

Taylor is largely getting lumped together with Montgomery, Watson and Ford, as the prep bats in the middle of the round, so the exact order will be mostly a function of team preference. Taylor is a Clemson football commit like Chandler, but as a slot receiver. He also won a state championship as a quarterback and has three state titles in wrestling.

 

 

21. Chicago Cubs

Jud Fabian, CF, Florida

 

Fabian was in the top half of the first round to start the year but fell because of whiff problems. Due to the high bonus expectations, he is likely to go back to Florida for the 2022 draft to prove himself again. He has trended up the last few weeks though and now is seen as likely to find a home in the middle to latter part of the first round.

 

 

22. Chicago White Sox

Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

 

Hill was a top-10 pick entering the year despite a short track record on the mound and some injuries. He was up-and-down with flashes of greatness this spring, then went down with Tommy John surgery. The lack of track record and polish puts him next to advanced high school pitchers, but the surgery timeline pushes Hill behind the top couple of prep arms. He also may land in the comp or early second round where a team can spread savings from their first pick, but I'd expect a bonus in line with the 15th to 25th overall pick (i.e. $3-4 million).

 

 

23. Cleveland Indians

Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami

 

Ranking MLB's current aces

 

What is an ace? Well, that's complicated. So we set specific criteria and identified the pitchers who fit.

 

Kiley McDaniel's ace rankings

 

Del Castillo isn't the most exciting prospect. He's a fine defender and hitter with offensive upside who stood out for his first two years in Miami but has been just OK this spring. The position is grueling, making the offensive bar low. Del Castillo has a history of hitting going back to high school, so he shouldn't get much further than this.

 

 

24. Atlanta Braves

Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

 

Wicks could go as high as the middle of the teens, but slides a bit in this scenario due to a lack of impact stuff. He should miss a decent amount of bats with a plus changeup, solid pitchability and an average fastball/slider combo even though his slider is inconsistent.

 

 

25. Oakland Athletics

Alex Mooney, SS, St. Mary's Prep H.S. (MI), Duke commit

 

Mooney is old for the prep class (19 on draft day) but otherwise performed well last summer and this spring at the plate, with improved in-game power, above-average speed and a glove that can stick at short. Mooney was scouted by Tigers GM Al Avila recently, clearly hoping he makes it to their pick at 32nd overall.

 

 

26. Minnesota Twins

Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East H.S. (NY), Clemson commit

 

Mack is one of the better prep bats in the class, with a combination of contact, power and track record. He's also a solid defender, especially in light of likely changes to automatic strike calling. His older brother, infielder Charles, was an over-slot 6th-round pick of the Twins out of the same high school in 2018.

 

 

27. San Diego Padres

Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace H.S. (NJ), North Carolina commit

 

Solometo has come out of the gates hot, hitting as high as 98 mph in 2021 after showing well last summer as more of a pitchability lefty. The concern is his longer arm action, but the combination of above-average stuff and feel from the left side fits the Padres type. GM A.J. Preller has been seen scouting a number of the prep hitters in this area already this spring.

 

 

28. Tampa Bay Rays

Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

 

McGreevy has been a steady riser since opening the spring as a second-round pick and could fit in a number of spots from 25 to 35. He draws Shane Bieber comps since they both went to UCSB with some similarities in their amateur profile. It's just very unlikely McGreevy takes off in pro ball like Bieber did. The Rays pick again at 34, and I'd expect a prep pitcher or middle infielder (two common demographics for them) to be one of their early picks.

 

 

29. Los Angeles Dodgers

Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest H.S. (KS), LSU commit

 

Kudrna fits in the Dodgers mold of power arms, and they've been tied mostly to prep players, which makes sense given their top-tier development.

 

It's worth noting a couple of players who didn't make this projection, but could go right after this pick and will be much higher in the next version of my rankings: Nebraska SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach and SoCal prep SS/RHP Carson Williams. Both are legitimate two-way prospects with big arm speed, but both are likely just shortstops in pro ball.

[Daniel Labude]

We should not pass up Fabian if he is available at our spot

 

 

And again

 

[Spanky99]

I agree, LTBF.

[BlueRocky]

Fabian has regained his stock quite a bit. The college hitting pool is so thin I have doubts he gets to 19 given he was arguably a top 5 talent pre-season. I’m guessing he’ll land around pick 7-15.

 

I think they’re going prep bat or best arm available, but in terms of college bat there’s guys like Del Castillo, Tresh, Wilson, Binelas.

 

The prep group is so much more interesting at this pick range: Henry Ford, Joshua Baez, James Wood, Benny Montgomery, Isaac Pacheco, Will Taylor, Peyton Stovall

 

College & prep arms: Hoglund (TJS), Hill, Bachman, Wicks, Chandler, Painter, Petty, Hartle, Cusick,

Edited May 16, 2021 by BlueRocky

[Spanky99]

Fabian has regained his stock quite a bit. The college hitting pool is so thin I have doubts he gets to 19 given he was arguably a top 5 talent pre-season. I’m guessing he’ll land around pick 7-15.

 

I think they’re going prep bat or best arm available, but in terms of college bat there’s guys like Del Castillo, Tresh, Wilson, Binelas.

 

The prep group is so much more interesting at this pick range: Henry Ford, Joshua Baez, James Wood, Benny Montgomery, Isaac Pacheco, Will Taylor, Peyton Stovall

 

College & prep arms: Hoglund (TJS), Hill, Bachman, Wicks, Chandler, Painter, Petty, Hartle, Cusick,

 

Birds could land Hoglund with their 2nd pick. I'd be disappointed if the DOT let him slide. Fabian that is... can't wait for the draft.

[Daniel Labude]

MLB updated their draft prospects rankings

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/

[metafour]

Can anyone post BA's newest mock from today?

[BlueRocky]

By Carlos Collazo

 

With the college regular season winding down, it feels like the draft should be right around the corner. However, we still have about two months to go—and teams think this year is more wide open than many of recent drafts given a perceived light class at the top, and less consensus on the talent overall.

 

“This year I have no expectations because it is so wide open,” said one scouting director. “When I walk into that draft room the night of the draft I wouldn’t be surprised if it was completely all over the place in terms of where guys go. Just not a lot of consensus.”

 

Related: Updated BA 400 Draft Rankings

 

While there’s not much consensus to be found, there has been a consistent group of 10-12 players who many teams seem to think will form much of the first half of the first round. Additionally, the latest buzz has been on the top high school shortstops getting pushed up the board. It’s potentially one of the best high school shortstop classes we’ve seen, so that makes sense, especially when combined with a down college hitting class, and some attrition by way of injury to the college pitching.

 

There’s still time for college players to move up or down boards in the next few weeks, but here is how the first round is shaping up today in Mock Draft V 4.0.

 

1

pit400x400.JPG

Jordan Lawlar

Dallas Jesuit HS SS

Notes:

Lately we’ve been hearing a lot of chatter about high school shortstops being tied to the top three teams. Additionally, it sounds like the top teams—including Pittsburgh—still have a wider net around a group of players than perhaps the top picking team would in a normal year. Louisville catcher Henry Davis is a possibility as well.

 

LESS

2

tex400x400.JPG

Marcelo Mayer

Eastlake HS, Chula Vista, Calif. SS

Notes:

Multiple sources seem to think that the Rangers would be hard-pressed to let local product Jordan Lawlar get past them if he were available at No. 2, but in this situation he’s not. Instead we have them taking the best prospect on the West Coast in Mayer, who some scouts think is the best overall hitter in the draft. As of today, it sounds like Lawlar and Mayer aren’t getting out of the top three.

 

LESS

3

det400x400.JPG

Brady House

Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga. SS

Notes:

We’ve heard the Tigers are more on bats than pitchers to this point, but that doesn’t mean they are entirely out on the Vanderbilt righthanders. Still, a high school shortstop has been in the rumor mill lately at this spot and we’ve heard consistently throughout the spring that the Tigers really like House, his physicality and his power potential. This would mark the first time in the Baseball America era (since 1981) that three prep shortstops were selected among the top 10 picks.

 

LESS

4

redsox-900x6351

Jack Leiter

Vanderbilt RHP

Notes:

We think the Red Sox are interested in all of the three prep shortstops who went in front of them in this mock draft, along with Henry Davis and the Vanderbilt duo. At this point it sounds like Kumar Rocker is more likely to slip down the board a bit than Leiter, though both have raised a few questions in recent weeks.

 

LESS

5

bal400x400.JPG

Henry Davis

Louisville C

Notes:

Baltimore could be put in a bit of a tough spot with this outcome, as Kumar Rocker and Henry Davis might be the top players on the board here. We’ve heard from some teams who think Baltimore would prefer a bat, which leads us to Davis, but they did just draft Adley Rutschman in 2019. Even though catching is a bit different, we still think best player available is the strategy teams should pursue in the first several rounds, and Davis is pretty consistently seen as the top college hitter in the class—which is potentially a steal here for Baltimore.

 

LESS

6

ari400x400.JPG

Kahlil Watson

Wake Forest (N.C.) HS SS

Notes:

Watson’s name has been heating up after getting his season started in North Carolina. He was one of the most impressive hitters last summer, and the reports on him this spring continue to be impressive. Some scouts believe he has the best toolset and upside in the class, and he also has traits that the D-backs have previously targeted. We’ve heard Arizona is scouting him pretty heavily. If Davis is available here he would make sense as well.

 

LESS

7

kc400x400.JPG

Kumar Rocker

Vanderbilt RHP

Notes:

This is the lowest we’ve mocked Rocker all spring, but there’s a very real possibility that he slides due to teams targeting hitters at the top of the draft. It’s worth noting that both Rocker and Leiter should have more time to push themselves back up draft boards than high school players and other college players who won’t play as deep into the postseason, so this could look like nothing more than wishful thinking in July if Rocker shoves.

 

LESS

8

col400x400.JPG

Sal Frelick

Boston College OF

Notes:

We have heard some chatter about the Rockies looking for a bat with this pick. Perhaps they would love for one of the prep shortstops to make it here, but if they don’t they could be picking from the second tier college trio of Sal Frelick, Matt McLain and Colton Cowser. One thing to note with Frelick is that Boston College’s season is over after a three-game series with Virginia this weekend, so teams might be drafting him without having seen him play for more than a month. That’s a new dynamic this year with the later draft and it’ll be interesting to see how—if at all—it impacts a player’s stock. Frelick finished with a .359/.443/.559 line with six home runs, 17 doubles, 27 walks to 28 strikeouts and went 13-for-18 in stolen base attempts.

 

LESS

9

laa400x400.JPG

Matt McLain

UCLA SS

Notes:

We’ve heard the Angels like both Bubba Chandler and Jackson Jobe, so there’s a real possibility they go the high school route here. Sources also seem to think that there’s a solid chance McLain goes among the top 10 picks given his performance prior to sustaining a thumb injury. The college shortstops fall off extremely quickly once McLain is off the board.

 

LESS

10

nym400x400.JPG

Ty Madden

Texas RHP

Notes:

Madden seems to be the consensus No. 3 college arm after the Vanderbilt duo, especially now that Mississippi righthander Gunnar Hoglund is done for the season after having Tommy John surgery. Madden's range seems to be somewhere around the 8-15 spots, but most people have him included among the top 10-12 players in the class at this point.

 

LESS

11

was400x400.JPG

Jackson Jobe

Heritage Hall HS, Oklahoma City, Okla. RHP

Notes:

Jobe separated himself from the rest of the high school pitching class this spring and there are sources who believe he has a chance to go inside the top 10 picks. That would be the first time a prep righty has gone that high in a few years, but with a down class at the top and limited college bats to go in front of him, it’s a real possibility. The Nationals are one of the teams who haven’t been scared of the demographic in recent years.

 

LESS

12

sea400x400.JPG

Colton Cowser

Sam Houston State OF

Notes:

Cowser might have to fight against the mid-major narratives that will pop up, but he also has a longer track record than many college hitters in the class and has 13 homers and more walks than strikeouts, with a center field profile as a lefthanded hitter. You start to add everything up and Cowser has a pretty attractive profile, especially for a team like Seattle that loves to take college players.

 

LESS

VIDEO

13

phi400x400.JPG

Jordan Wicks

Kansas State LHP

Notes:

The top 12 players who have gone in front of the Phillies in this mock seem to be a fairly well established top group in the class at this point. Beyond Cowser, things start to get much dicier and the player pool that makes sense rapidly gets wider. Teams picking in this range and lower are still combing through plenty of names, but Wicks has posted all season and has good command of a solid three-pitch mix that includes arguably the best changeup in the class.

 

LESS

14

sf400x400.JPG

Bubba Chandler

North Oconee HS, Bogart, Ga. RHP/SS

Notes:

Chandler’s range seems to be throughout the entire first round, as high as around No. 9 with the Angels and as low as the back of the first round. We’ve heard the Giants are one of the teams that likes him, but they also might be a team that jumps at the chance to get Gunnar Hoglund—who if healthy wouldn’t have made it outside of the top 10 picks.

 

LESS

VIDEO

15

New Brewers Logo (1)

Adrian Del Castillo

Miami C

Notes:

Del Castillo has been sliding all season, so this might represent the high water mark for him, and his average is now under .300 on the year after a 1-for-12 series against Louisville. At the same time, there are essentially no college bats to be found at this point that teams have high confidence in and even if teams have questions about Del Castillo’s impact or future defensive home, most evaluators still believe in the hit tool.

 

LESS

16

mia400x400.jpg (1)

Sam Bachman

Miami (Ohio) RHP

Notes:

Bachman seems to be solidly in the mix of college arms that Wicks, UC Santa Barbara righthander Michael McGreevy and Wake Forest righthander Ryan Cusick are lumped into—all of whom could go in the middle of the first or in the 20s. Bachman has the most explosive two-pitch mix of anyone in the draft class, but he also has more reliever risk and more medical questions that could make him a polarizing, high-risk, high-reward player.

 

LESS

17

cin400x400.JPG

Benny Montgomery

Red Land HS, Lewisberry, Pa. OF

Notes:

Montgomery has had huge crowds of scouts to see him at every game this spring in the Northeast, and there’s a solid chance he is the top high school outfielder taken thanks to an explosive all-around toolset. If Cincinnati wants to add some athleticism to its farm system, Montgomery would satisfy that.

 

LESS

18

stl400x400.JPG

Gunnar Hoglund

Mississippi RHP

Notes:

With Hoglund going down with Tommy John surgery, he immediately becomes one of the more difficult players to project. There seems to be enough interest still that he could go anywhere throughout the teens, and that makes it seem like he’ll still find a home in the first round. St. Louis took lefthander Zack Thompson in the first round in 2019, and he carried some medical history, so perhaps that doesn’t bother the Cardinals as much as it might other teams.

 

LESS

19

tor400x400.JPG

Harry Ford

North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, Ga. C

Notes:

Ford hasn’t had the most electric spring, but he was one of the best performers during the summer showcase circuit last year and brings rare athleticism and running ability for the catcher position—enough that he could easily move off to another position with a chance to play it well, while bringing bat-to-ball skills and more power than you’d think. We’ve heard the Blue Jays are one of the teams in on Ford.

 

LESS

20

nyy400x400.JPG

Andrew Painter

Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. RHP

Notes:

Painter is no longer considered the top high school righthander in the class, but he’s pitched better later in the season than he did at the beginning, has a great pitcher’s frame and perhaps the best command in the high school class. He has a plus fastball and changeup and throws both a curveball and slider that are solid as well. It’s been a while since the Yankees have drafted a high school righty in the first round, but they could be in a spot to take Painter or a player like Chase Petty this year. They’ve also been scouting Ryan Cusick, who could make sense in this spot, but has been slipping a bit.

 

LESS

21

chc400x400.JPG

Michael McGreevy

UC Santa Barbara RHP

Notes:

McGreevy’s name is frequently mentioned as the top college righthander after the Vanderbilt arms, Madden and Bachman, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he went higher than this. Along with Hoglund, he has some of the best overall command in the class, is young, still-projectable and has two plus offerings in his fastball and curveball.

 

LESS

22

cws400x400.JPG

Chase Petty

Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, N.J. RHP

Notes:

The White Sox have gone after a few flamethrowers in recent drafts (Garrett Crochet, Jared Kelley) and if they wanted to chase velocity once again, Petty is the guy. He has the hardest fastball in the prep class and has shown glimpses of a plus slider as well, but there’s effort to his operation and spotty control at times. He figures to be a polarizing prospect for teams, but the sense around the industry seems to be that he’ll find a spot in the back of the first. Haughton (La.) High shortstop Peyton Stovall might be a target here as well.

 

LESS

23

cle400x400.JPG

Joe Mack

Williamsville East HS, East Amherst, N.Y. C

Notes:

Flip a coin between Mack and Harry Ford if you want to know who is going to be the first high school catcher off the board. Mack only recently got his season started in upstate New York, but impressed evaluators last summer with his lefthanded bat and arm behind the plate. Think a bit less bat and a bit more glove than Bo Naylor at the time he was drafted, Indians fans.

 

LESS

24

atl400x400.JPG

Ryan Cusick

Wake Forest RHP

Notes:

Virginia pieced up Cusick a week ago (4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 4 K), but Cusick shoved against Pittsburgh Thursday night (7.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K) and he also has one of the most overpowering pitches in this year’s draft class with a fastball routinely in the upper 90s. It also sounds like the Braves are one of many teams who have been on high school outfielder Joshua Baez, but he swung and missed a decent bit in his last game.

 

LESS

25

oak400x400.JPG

Will Taylor

Dutch Fork HS, Irmo, S.C. OF

Notes:

Taylor hit well last summer and has added more strength early this spring, though power is still perhaps the one question mark in his game. He can run, throw, hit and field and he’s been tagged in the back of the first round frequently of late, though his multi-sport commitment to Clemson could complicate things.

 

LESS

26

min400x400.JPG

Jud Fabian

Florida OF

Notes:

Fabian has cut down his strikeout rate over the last month or so, and is one of the leaders in the nation in homers, while also playing a terrific center field. Perhaps no player can impact his stock more in either direction than Fabian in the closing weeks of the season. Some sources believe with a strong finish he could still go as high as the early teens thanks to his power, defensive profile and age. Going 1-for-11 with nine strikeouts this weekend vs. Arkansas wasn’t ideal though.

 

LESS

27

New Padres Logo

Anthony Solometo

Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, N.J. LHP

Notes:

San Diego GM AJ Preller has been scouting the Northeast a lot this spring—but then again, Preller is seemingly scouting constantly, so perhaps we shouldn’t read into this too much. We’ve heard them tied to a number of the toolsy, high-upside prep outfielders like Montgomery and Joshua Baez, but Solometo has trended up with a fastball up to 96, a plus slider and impressive ability to spot to both sides of the plate for a prep arm with the length he has in his arm action.

 

LESS

28

tb400x400.JPG

Lonnie White

Malvern (Pa.) Prep OF

Notes:

White doesn’t have the gaudy toolset that his contemporaries in the Northeast like Joshua Baez and Benny Montgomery bring to the table, but he does have solid tools and a more advanced hitting approach than either of them. He’s been getting some back-of-the-first buzz, but like Will Taylor his football commitment at the next level could complicate things for teams. Prep hitters like Peyton Stovall or Harry Ford might be interesting here as well.

 

LESS

29

lad400x400.JPG

Carson Williams

Torrey Pines HS, San Diego SS

Notes:

Williams has been getting a lot of helium of late as an athletic shortstop with above-average power potential and a fastball up to 95 on the mound. The Dodgers sound like one of the teams interested in him, and if they don’t take him here there’s a chance he doesn’t make it to their next pick. They lost their second-round selection after signing Trevor Bauer, so Los Angeles picks here and then at the end of the third round with the 101st pick of the draft.

 

Guess no Watson for us.

[Slade]

I think that's three links to Harry Ford already with McDaniels, Law and Collazo now. If we picked him I wonder if we would move him off catcher to like CF position to take advantage of his speed.

[Daniel Labude]

I think that's three links to Harry Ford already with McDaniels, Law and Collazo now. If we picked him I wonder if we would move him off catcher to like CF position to take advantage of his speed.

 

I just don't see it

[Daniel Labude]

I dont see them going with a high school catcher who they would be relying on last summer's results because he hasn't faired as well this year vs a 20 year old Fabian who has done well against SEC pitching and vs the top pitcher in this draft. I think they are trying to fit Ford with us just because we have looked at him

[metafour]

I think that's three links to Harry Ford already with McDaniels, Law and Collazo now. If we picked him I wonder if we would move him off catcher to like CF position to take advantage of his speed.

 

There have been a number of links to Joe Mack as well - both guys seemingly being the best HS hitters in that range while also just so happening to both play catcher. It seems like overkill (especially considering that their top IFA signing in the next class is ALSO supposed to be a catcher) but I think they're likely considering BPA at that pick.

[metafour]

vs a 20 year old Fabian who has done well against SEC pitching and vs the top pitcher in this draft.

 

Fabian just went 1 for 11 with 9 strikeouts against Arkansas so it doesn't look like the contact issues just magically disappeared - thats a bad as he was showing earlier this spring.

 

But the other thing that needs to be considered: we have no 2nd round pick which means we have a reduced bonus pool, and it looks like Fabian wants over slot or he's going back to school. He doesn't seem to be a "fit" for us. Do we want to go overslot and allocate most of our pool to a guy who showed major whiff problems this year? His whole hype/fall reminds me a bit of Jaren Kendall from the 2017 draft who went right behind our pick of Logan Warmoth. Kendall was a CF from Vanderbilt who entered the season at one point with #1 hype, showed major contact issues, and then dropped to the Dodgers while being praised as a "huge steal" (lots of Jays fans wanted us to take him too, not that Warmoth turned out any better). In the minors, Kendall has basically been a continuation of his final season at Vandy. With Fabian, I'm not sure the risk vs. commitment required makes sense for us.

[Slade]

I dont see them going with a high school catcher who they would be relying on last summer's results because he hasn't faired as well this year vs a 20 year old Fabian who has done well against SEC pitching and vs the top pitcher in this draft. I think they are trying to fit Ford with us just because we have looked at him

 

How come you like Fabian so much? His stock is falling quite a bit cause he is proving his critics right, lots of power but can't make adjustments for breaking balls. He reminds me a lot of Griffin Conine but he strikes out even more.

 

Ford seems like he has so much of what the Jays value. Age, athleticism, bat speed, premium position, Summer circuit success, High IQ. I can see the fit more than Fabian, I am not even sure Fabian makes it in the first round anymore now that the high school kids seasons have started.

[Daniel Labude]

How come you like Fabian so much? His stock is falling quite a bit cause he is proving his critics right, lots of power but can't make adjustments for breaking balls. He reminds me a lot of Griffin Conine but he strikes out even more.

 

Ford seems like he has so much of what the Jays value. Age, athleticism, bat speed, premium position, Summer circuit success, High IQ. I can see the fit more than Fabian, I am not even sure Fabian makes it in the first round anymore now that the high school kids seasons have started.

 

The strikeouts were a problem on his slow start. Once he got going he has been a beast. He has the same tools as before the year, but has shown a lot more power. Even vs the top pitchers in this draft. He is also only 20. He will have the potential to hit for average and power, with some stolen bases and really good defense in CF. He has a 36% K rate and a 18% BB rate in the best college conference even with his horrible start. Given the lost time and issues with the pandemic I think he is just getting back up to speed.

[The Cats Ass]

Fabian just went 1 for 11 with 9 strikeouts against Arkansas so it doesn't look like the contact issues just magically disappeared - thats a bad as he was showing earlier this spring.

 

But the other thing that needs to be considered: we have no 2nd round pick which means we have a reduced bonus pool, and it looks like Fabian wants over slot or he's going back to school. He doesn't seem to be a "fit" for us. Do we want to go overslot and allocate most of our pool to a guy who showed major whiff problems this year? His whole hype/fall reminds me a bit of Jaren Kendall from the 2017 draft who went right behind our pick of Logan Warmoth. Kendall was a CF from Vanderbilt who entered the season at one point with #1 hype, showed major contact issues, and then dropped to the Dodgers while being praised as a "huge steal" (lots of Jays fans wanted us to take him too, not that Warmoth turned out any better). In the minors, Kendall has basically been a continuation of his final season at Vandy. With Fabian, I'm not sure the risk vs. commitment required makes sense for us.

 

How does this draft compare to 2022? If it's looking like 2022 is going to be better we could take the risk of drafting Fabian and offering him slot, while also going with slot for all our other picks. 2 first round picks with their values might be nice to have in 2022, it would really open up the possibilities on what a team could do.

[BlueRocky]

I think that's three links to Harry Ford already with McDaniels, Law and Collazo now. If we picked him I wonder if we would move him off catcher to like CF position to take advantage of his speed.

 

Ford is interesting, I can see him moving to 2B/3B if they love the bat. I still think they’ll gravitate towards a prep shortstop or college SP.