Spring/Summer Training, 2020

[Deadpool]

Ah, the problem here seems to be that you believe Puig is much worse than he actually is.

 

I'm legitimately confused as to why anyone would expect Puig from 2014 to show up again, when he's been slightly above average for the past 5 seasons. I mean, there's a chance he could put up a season of 2+ WAR in 2020, but he has managed that once in the past 5 seasons. Projections don't seem to think he's going to, and Kevin Pillar (one of the guys you suggest was ludicrous to compare favourably to Puig) has put up 11.5 WAR since 2015, to Puig's 8.4 over the same time frame.

 

It's very reasonable to assume that Puig just isn't good anymore, and if he's as much of a PITA as pretty much everyone admits that he is, then why would you take that risk?

[Carlos Danger]

Quite a shame it is a Sunday and no televised game... I expect at least Sunday games to be televised in ST..

[Laika]

I'm legitimately confused as to why anyone would expect Puig from 2014 to show up again, when he's been slightly above average for the past 5 seasons. I mean, there's a chance he could put up a season of 2+ WAR in 2020, but he has managed that once in the past 5 seasons. Projections don't seem to think he's going to, and Kevin Pillar (one of the guys you suggest was ludicrous to compare favourably to Puig) has put up 11.5 WAR since 2015, to Puig's 8.4 over the same time frame.

 

It's very reasonable to assume that Puig just isn't good anymore, and if he's as much of a PITA as pretty much everyone admits that he is, then why would you take that risk?

 

Nobody thinks he can be that good. But his maximum exit velocity and sprint speed are still upper-end, so he still has his elite total athleticism. At 29 years old he isn't far from his physical prime - it's not hard to imagine some tiny little tweaks unlocking more. And even if he doesn't improve his talent has been pretty flat from 2015 through 2019. Here are his WAR/150 rates for those seasons:

 

2.85

1.44

2.86

2.16

1.21

1.85 (2020 ZiPS)

2.09 (2020 Steamer)

 

We're talking about a guy who, in baseball terms, has actually been almost remarkably consistent as an average talent for the last five years. He is also obviously one teeny tiny swing adjustment, or some more intelligent baserunning, or some better outfield positioning, away from being comfortably above average. It's not like he is maxed out defensively or has been exhibiting a lack of power or huge strikeout issues. He just has not been able to be as good as the sum of his parts.

[Deadpool]

Nobody thinks he can be that good. But his maximum exit velocity and sprint speed are still upper-end, so he still has his elite total athleticism. At 29 years old he isn't far from his physical prime - it's not hard to imagine some tiny little tweaks unlocking more. And even if he doesn't improve his talent has been pretty flat from 2015 through 2019. Here are his WAR/150 rates for those seasons:

 

2.85

1.44

2.86

2.16

1.21

1.85 (2020 ZiPS)

2.09 (2020 Steamer)

 

We're talking about a guy who, in baseball terms, has actually been almost remarkably consistent as an average talent for the last five years. He is also obviously one teeny tiny swing adjustment, or some more intelligent baserunning, or some better outfield positioning, away from being comfortably above average. It's not like he is maxed out defensively or has been exhibiting a lack of power or huge strikeout issues. He just has not been able to be as good as the sum of his parts.

 

This seems a lot like the arguments I've made that Alford has all the tools and is a few adjustments away from being a valuable MLB piece that generally get ridiculed around here. (note: I'm not arguing that Alford is a better player that Puig, or that Alford is presently a valuable MLB piece, just that "[h]e is also obviously one teeny tiny swing adjustment, or some more intelligent baserunning, or some better outfield positioning, away from being" a valuable MLB piece.)

 

Also, man I hope Shoemaker is healthy this year, he's been SO GOOD for the Jays when healthy (SSS, sadly).

[Laika]

This seems a lot like the arguments I've made that Alford has all the tools and is a few adjustments away from being a valuable MLB piece that generally get ridiculed around here. (note: I'm not arguing that Alford is a better player that Puig, or that Alford is presently a valuable MLB piece, just that "[h]e is also obviously one teeny tiny swing adjustment, or some more intelligent baserunning, or some better outfield positioning, away from being" a valuable MLB piece.)

 

Also, man I hope Shoemaker is healthy this year, he's been SO GOOD for the Jays when healthy (SSS, sadly).

 

Sorry, but Puig literally is a tiny adjustment away from being good. Alford is a thousand large adjustments from perhaps being a replacement level Baltimore Oriole. Log off right now!

[Deadpool]

Sorry, but Puig literally is a tiny adjustment away from being good. Alford is a thousand large adjustments from perhaps being a replacement level Baltimore Oriole. Log off right now!

 

I mean, if any team thought Puig was likely to be good this season, he'd have been signed already. There are 30 teams staffed with dozens of player evaluators who have passed on him so far. I do not see him as being anything more than "above average, but with enough baggage that he's not remotely worth it", and it seems that literally every MLB team agrees with me.

[glory]

[Laika]

I mean, if any team thought Puig was likely to be good this season, he'd have been signed already. There are 30 teams staffed with dozens of player evaluators who have passed on him so far. I do not see him as being anything more than "above average, but with enough baggage that he's not remotely worth it", and it seems that literally every MLB team agrees with me.

 

That’s not absolutely true. I mean last year Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel were free agents until the all star break.

 

Puig could just be demanding too much money

[saskjayfan]

butterbean rules!

[Spanky__99]

Good game by the Shoe and Co. Nice to see Shaw hit a jack in the last 2 games.

[Spanky__99]

butterbean rules!

 

Can you not do this, please.

[Deadpool]

Can you not do this, please.

 

Agreed. That's arguably the stupidest forcedbysomeoneotherthantercet nickname I've ever heard.

[agrushcow]

 

Shoemaker looked fantastic live, got ahead of virtually every hitter. I'm pretty bullish on him being our 2nd best pitcher if he can stay healthy. Kirk is an absolute specimen.

[saskjayfan]

Can you not do this, please.

 

I can do whatever I want. He's a fat bastard who's remarkably good at his sport for his size just like Butterbean. I hope he flies through the minors and is brought up this year. Go butterbean!

[Boxcar]

This seems a lot like the arguments I've made that Alford has all the tools and is a few adjustments away from being a valuable MLB piece that generally get ridiculed around here. (note: I'm not arguing that Alford is a better player that Puig, or that Alford is presently a valuable MLB piece, just that "[h]e is also obviously one teeny tiny swing adjustment, or some more intelligent baserunning, or some better outfield positioning, away from being" a valuable MLB piece.)

 

Also, man I hope Shoemaker is healthy this year, he's been SO GOOD for the Jays when healthy (SSS, sadly).

 

Hahaha

 

You seriously need a "Deadpool is wrong" counter because to compare a successful MLB player despite underperforming for his talent level to a s***** prospect who can't hit, hasn't any stretch of even lukewarm success is so ridiculous.

[Boxcar]

butterbean rules!

 

That's racist

[saskjayfan]

That's racist

 

yes comparing one fat man to another is racist. I hope Kirk loses 30 or 40lbs and I'll just call him Kirk. The guy is a hitting machine. I really like the kid.

[Boxcar]

yes comparing one fat man to another is racist. I hope Kirk loses 30 or 40lbs and I'll just call him Kirk. The guy is a hitting machine. I really like the kid.

 

Butterbean. Surely you know that's a pejorative for Mexicans?

[Spanky__99]

Agreed. That's arguably the stupidest forcedbysomeoneotherthantercet nickname I've ever heard.

 

lol... yes.

[max silver]

Agreed. That's arguably the stupidest forcedbysomeoneotherthantercet nickname I've ever heard.

 

That Ryan Borucki aceucki nicknake or whatever the f*** it is even worse.

[Deadpool]

Hahaha

 

You seriously need a "Deadpool is wrong" counter because to compare a successful MLB player despite underperforming for his talent level to a s***** prospect who can't hit, hasn't any stretch of even lukewarm success is so ridiculous.

 

You need a "Boxcar is making a strawman argument" counter, in that case. The comparison wasn't between the two players (I literally said that I wasn't arguing that Alford was better), but between the arguments that they are better than their numbers. The argument that Puig could be better than a 2 WAR player is exactly the same argument that Alford could be better than below replacement. "If they do some things better, they will be better."

 

Puig had 2 really great seasons. FIVE YEARS AGO. He hasn't been good (in this case, meaning "worth more than Kevin Pillar") for the majority of his career. There's as much of a chance of Puig putting up 4 WAR in 2020 as there is of Alford putting up 2 WAR. (Neither are likely, but both could theoretically happen.)

[Deadpool]

That Ryan Borucki aceucki nicknake or whatever the f*** it is even worse.

 

The absolute worst attempted forced nickname around these parts was Guribabip, but you are correct, aceueki was almost as terrible.

[saskjayfan]

Butterbean. Surely you know that's a pejorative for Mexicans?

 

I don't think you can make than connection and support trump at the same time. In light of your sensitivities I will now call Kirk Kung Fu Panda or Fat Bastard just for you.

[Boxcar]

You need a "Boxcar is making a strawman argument" counter, in that case. The comparison wasn't between the two players (I literally said that I wasn't arguing that Alford was better), but between the arguments that they are better than their numbers. The argument that Puig could be better than a 2 WAR player is exactly the same argument that Alford could be better than below replacement. "If they do some things better, they will be better."

 

Puig had 2 really great seasons. FIVE YEARS AGO. He hasn't been good (in this case, meaning "worth more than Kevin Pillar") for the majority of his career. There's as much of a chance of Puig putting up 4 WAR in 2020 as there is of Alford putting up 2 WAR. (Neither are likely, but both could theoretically happen.)

 

What would that argument for Alford be? That he's fast and black? He does literally nothing well. Puig's argument is that he's already an average player and even if he doesn't unlock that potential, he's still an upgrade. Alford f***ing blows and has no redeeming qualities. The arguments are not equivalent, or even similar.

[Laika]

There's as much of a chance of Puig putting up 4 WAR in 2020 as there is of Alford putting up 2 WAR.

 

Bigly doubt this, lol

[Deadpool]

What would that argument for Alford be? That he's fast and black? He does literally nothing well. Puig's argument is that he's already an average player and even if he doesn't unlock that potential, he's still an upgrade. Alford f***ing blows and has no redeeming qualities. The arguments are not equivalent, or even similar.

 

The argument is that he could Kevin Pillar himself to a 2 WAR season. He's fast, he gets good reads on the ball in CF, and he clunks the f*** outta things out there when he's under pressure. He's got the "catching the ball" version of the yips. If he could figure out when to close his glove, he could be a VERY solid CF (something we don't really have, outside of maybe Davis). I don't think he's going to be a star or anything, but he has the tools to be an excellent CF, with an 85 wRC+ kinda bat, and can be a good tool as the 26th man as a pinch runner/defensive replacement type.

 

Puig is absolutely an upgrade over Alford, I'm not trying to argue that he's not, I just don't think that Puig has any more great seasons in him, and he's probably not enough of an upgrade to justify the cost, or the ******** that he brings with him.

[Deadpool]

Bigly doubt this, lol

 

I think you guys have WAY too much faith that Puig is anything more than he has shown for the past 5 years.

[Boxcar]

The argument is that he could Kevin Pillar himself to a 2 WAR season. He's fast, he gets good reads on the ball in CF, and he clunks the f*** outta things out there when he's under pressure. He's got the "catching the ball" version of the yips. If he could figure out when to close his glove, he could be a VERY solid CF (something we don't really have, outside of maybe Davis). I don't think he's going to be a star or anything, but he has the tools to be an excellent CF, with an 85 wRC+ kinda bat, and can be a good tool as the 26th man as a pinch runner/defensive replacement type.

 

Puig is absolutely an upgrade over Alford, I'm not trying to argue that he's not, I just don't think that Puig has any more great seasons in him, and he's probably not enough of an upgrade to justify the cost, or the ******** that he brings with him.

 

So despite an actual career with success and tools that are undeniably better than Alford's, you can see Alford putting up 2-3 WARz because reasons but can't see Puig putting up better than advertised numbers.

 

Hopefully you can see the little problem there and consider if you're just locked in as a pointless Alford fanboy.

[Boxcar]

I think you guys have WAY too much faith that Puig is anything more than he has shown for the past 5 years.

 

It's not about faith in Puig you dummy. It's a lack of faith in Alford. Alford sucks. Alford really, really sucks. Puig does not. There's probably a better chance of Puig putting up 4 WAR than Alford putting up 0.5.

[Laika]

I think you guys have WAY too much faith that Puig is anything more than he has shown for the past 5 years.

 

It's not faith in any sense of the word. He projects for 2 wins and was a 3 win player as recently as 2017, and his skills have not changed since then.

 

We have projections for every player and, centered around those projections, we can reason our way to upper and lower tier outcomes. Puig is expected to be worth about 2 WAR. It would not be that weird to see 3 WAR because he did it recently while exhibiting the same tools. If you get super optimistic and say, presume he has a good defensive year and figures something tiny out on offense, 4 WAR seems super optimistic but still possible... maybe you give it a 5-10% chance of happening.

 

Alford projects to be BELOW replacement level. Do you know how bad you have to be to get a negative projection? Here are some other players with ZiPS projections around -0.3 WAR:

 

THE Ryan Goins

Richie Martin, coming off a -1.0 WAR year

old friend Mitch Nay

Sicnarf Loopstok (yes this is a real name)

old friend Kendrys Morales

old friend Dioner Navarro, who hasn't played since his -1.8 WAR 2016 but did play in AAA last year and had a nice 69 wRC+

old friend Travis Snider, out of the league since 2015

Danial Palka, who had a 2 wRC+ last year. That's not a typo.

old friend Ezequiel Carrera

 

In order to envision a scenario where he is worth 2 WAR, you basically have to imagine that he has some sort of Freaky Friday thing happen with Byron Buxton. It would be borderline shocking to see Alford get to 1 WAR, but I guess that might be possible if he is used mostly as a defensive replacement and pinch runner? I dunno. The guy can't hit at all. Like, he swings through every type of pitch, even hanging sliders and fastballs.