Betts to the Dodgers

[The Cats Ass]

It'll nice for Betts to get even more playoff experience that he'll be able to bring to the Jays in 2021.

[BTS]

I'm seeing lots of 'bad for baseball' bellyaching about the Betts trade. Apparently the Red Sox aren't allowed to trade a pending FA who's refusing to sign ahead of free agency unless he gets, like, $400M.

 

I feel like Verdugo is being improperly evaluated by the masses. It's 5 years of control of a guy who just put up 2.2 wins over less than 400 PA in his age-23 season, and projects at 3+ wins this year. I think he's objectively a more valuable asset than Mookie Betts. He's a plus baserunner, a borderline elite corner OF, and an easy plus hitter with exceptionally low K rates. It's pretty much just injuries that would prevent him from being at least an average player over the next 5 years, and there's 4-win upside there easily.

[saskjayfan]

He wasn't interested. He wants 400 mil+ and was/is determined to go into FA.

 

I just remember thinking the Eovaldi signing was dumb when they made it. Castillo is off the books after this year. Jackie Bradley Jr could have been non-tendered. It seems they low balled him and then the market revalued this year and they were stuck. It just seems that a team that can comfortable spend over the luxury tax could have paid him a year or two ago and locked him up. It's not often a Boston, New York or LA loses home grown talent.

[saskjayfan]

It'll nice for Betts to get even more playoff experience that he'll be able to bring to the Jays in 2021.

 

The dodgers have something like 40 mil committed to payroll in 2022 excluding arb players and I know there are some significant names there. I would be very surprised if he doesn't resign with the dodgers. The dodgers can spend 280 on payroll if they want.

[Laika]

I'm seeing lots of 'bad for baseball' bellyaching about the Betts trade. Apparently the Red Sox aren't allowed to trade a pending FA who's refusing to sign ahead of free agency unless he gets, like, $400M.

 

I feel like Verdugo is being improperly evaluated by the masses. It's 5 years of control of a guy who just put up 2.2 wins over less than 400 PA in his age-23 season, and projects at 3+ wins this year. I think he's objectively a more valuable asset than Mookie Betts. He's a plus baserunner, a borderline elite corner OF, and an easy plus hitter with exceptionally low K rates. It's pretty much just injuries that would prevent him from being at least an average player over the next 5 years, and there's 4-win upside there easily.

 

He's a better asset in terms of surplus value, but not in terms of tempo. By basic surplus value analysis trading an 8 win player who makes $10M with one year of control for 12 one win players making the league minimum with full control might even make sense, even though it defies common sense. One elephant sized chicken would defeat ten thousand chicken sized elephants.

 

Boston just shaved like ~4 marginal projected wins off of their competitive 2020 roster. There is a huge cost to that and it's not captured by basic surplus value analysis.

 

That aside, I agree that the "bad for baseball" takes are largely bellyaching. The superstar went from one rich team to another; collectively baseball is just as good and the owners are paying out just as much salary. It's s***** for Red Sox fans is what it is.

[BTS]

He's a better asset in terms of surplus value, but not in terms of tempo. By basic surplus value analysis trading an 8 win player who makes $10M with one year of control for 12 one win players making the league minimum with full control might even make sense, even though it defies common sense. One elephant sized chicken would defeat ten thousand chicken sized elephants.

 

Boston just shaved like ~4 marginal projected wins off of their competitive 2020 roster. There is a huge cost to that and it's not captured by basic surplus value analysis.

 

That aside, I agree that the "bad for baseball" takes are largely bellyaching. The superstar went from one rich team to another; collectively baseball is just as good and the owners are paying out just as much salary. It's s***** for Red Sox fans is what it is.

 

It does look like a punting of the 2020 season. I can see why Sox fans would be pissed, but from the outside looking in, it's probably the right move for the long-term to peel the band-aid off now and pick up Verudgo and Graterol if Boston has determined that they don't want to pay Betts his 350 or 400M or whatever it was going to take to keep him. I think this was a very sensible and defensible move.

[Deadpool]

He's a better asset in terms of surplus value, but not in terms of tempo. By basic surplus value analysis trading an 8 win player who makes $10M with one year of control for 12 one win players making the league minimum with full control might even make sense, even though it defies common sense. One elephant sized chicken would defeat ten thousand chicken sized elephants.

 

Boston just shaved like ~4 marginal projected wins off of their competitive 2020 roster. There is a huge cost to that and it's not captured by basic surplus value analysis.

 

That aside, I agree that the "bad for baseball" takes are largely bellyaching. The superstar went from one rich team to another; collectively baseball is just as good and the owners are paying out just as much salary. It's s***** for Red Sox fans is what it is.

 

Red Sox fans deserve nothing but misery, so I'm good with it.

[RobinThicc]

Lmao @ the red sox

[Maahfaace]

I hope Stripling is given the chance to start for the Angels. Hes better than Bundy and probably better than Tehran too.

[max silver]

It does look like a punting of the 2020 season. I can see why Sox fans would be pissed, but from the outside looking in, it's probably the right move for the long-term to peel the band-aid off now and pick up Verudgo and Graterol if Boston has determined that they don't want to pay Betts his 350 or 400M or whatever it was going to take to keep him. I think this was a very sensible and defensible move.

 

The Red Sox didn't exactly look like a championship caliber team with Betts and Price for 2020, so it ultimately made sense to get better future assets back now than to keep Betts and only get back a compensation pick after the season. It would still have to be infuriating for Boston fans though, which totally brings a smile to my face.

[Grant77]

I just remember thinking the Eovaldi signing was dumb when they made it. Castillo is off the books after this year. Jackie Bradley Jr could have been non-tendered. It seems they low balled him and then the market revalued this year and they were stuck. It just seems that a team that can comfortable spend over the luxury tax could have paid him a year or two ago and locked him up. It's not often a Boston, New York or LA loses home grown talent.

 

It hasn't been brought up, but to me it seems pretty clear that Mookie Betts did not want to be in Boston. He said he was hitting free agency before, during, and after they offered him a contract.

[sdyment]

Just to add some gasoline... apparently Verdugo has off field issues?

That’s always blended well with the immense pressure from s***** Bosox fans, not to mention replacing Jesus in the outfield.

Dugout fight in 3...2...1...

[TheHurl]

Updated Steamer projections. Maeda is now a 4.61 FIP 1.8 Win asset. Verdugo now a 3.2 fWAR 600 PA guy. I think Betts was a 6.1 projection now at 5.9. Graterol interestingly went from a 45 IP 0.1 guy to 53 IP and 0.4. Price now 155 IP and 2.9 fWAR. Gaining a full win in 5 less IP.

[TheHurl]

Just to add some gasoline... apparently Verdugo has off field issues?

That’s always blended well with the immense pressure from s***** Bosox fans, not to mention replacing Jesus in the outfield.

Dugout fight in 3...2...1...

 

His issues are taking advantage of passing out drunk girls. In Boston that is still celebrated

[Laika]

Updated Steamer projections. Maeda is now a 4.61 FIP 1.8 Win asset. Verdugo now a 3.2 fWAR 600 PA guy. I think Betts was a 6.1 projection now at 5.9. Graterol interestingly went from a 45 IP 0.1 guy to 53 IP and 0.4. Price now 155 IP and 2.9 fWAR. Gaining a full win in 5 less IP.

 

senseless

[Brownie19]

His issues are taking advantage of passing out drunk girls. In Boston that is still celebrated

 

[Spanky__99]

Updated Steamer projections. Maeda is now a 4.61 FIP 1.8 Win asset. Verdugo now a 3.2 fWAR 600 PA guy. I think Betts was a 6.1 projection now at 5.9. Graterol interestingly went from a 45 IP 0.1 guy to 53 IP and 0.4. Price now 155 IP and 2.9 fWAR. Gaining a full win in 5 less IP.

 

How many innings is Maeda pitching in that projection?

 

Just asking? They can hold BG out til after Super 2, and stack.

[TheHurl]

How many innings is Maeda pitching in that projection?

 

Just asking? They can hold BG out til after Super 2, and stack.

 

139IP 23 starts 15 Relief appearances which isn't going to happen in Minny.

 

Graterol (and most pitchers) does not need any time manipulation.

[TheHurl]

Here is my question. Why is a 24 year old guy that is projected to be 17th best OF in baseball next year considered light return? Is it because the projections aren't to be believed? The Ceiling is low? Because the Dodgers didn't play him everyday? Unsexy?

 

Or even the question if he is a 3 fWAR player through his 5 years in Boston is it still not enough for Mookie in your mind?

 

I'm just intrigued here. I like Verdugo, and I think Fenway helps him but I also somehow get it. He maxes out at Starling Marte, but it's a very Rays type trade return for Chaim.

[Spanky__99]

Here is my question. Why is a 24 year old guy that is projected to be 17th best OF in baseball next year considered light return? Is it because the projections aren't to be believed? The Ceiling is low? Because the Dodgers didn't play him everyday? Unsexy?

 

Or even the question if he is a 3 fWAR player through his 5 years in Boston is it still not enough for Mookie in your mind?

 

I'm just intrigued here. I like Verdugo, and I think Fenway helps him but I also somehow get it. He maxes out at Starling Marte, but it's a very Rays type trade return for Chaim.

 

Business smart move.

[Laika]

Here is my question. Why is a 24 year old guy that is projected to be 17th best OF in baseball next year considered light return? Is it because the projections aren't to be believed? The Ceiling is low? Because the Dodgers didn't play him everyday? Unsexy?

 

Or even the question if he is a 3 fWAR player through his 5 years in Boston is it still not enough for Mookie in your mind?

 

I'm just intrigued here. I like Verdugo, and I think Fenway helps him but I also somehow get it. He maxes out at Starling Marte, but it's a very Rays type trade return for Chaim.

 

Several things going on with Verdugo. Most importantly he wears earrings, has a s***** beard, and people don't seem to like him.

 

I think the projections are a bit high. There is also bust risk here right - he's a young player who is still not entirely proven since his playing time was so protected/structured with LA. So the projections have huge error bars in both directions.

[Brownie19]

Verdugo and Benintendi are similar players eh?

[glory]

Here is my question. Why is a 24 year old guy that is projected to be 17th best OF in baseball next year considered light return? Is it because the projections aren't to be believed? The Ceiling is low? Because the Dodgers didn't play him everyday? Unsexy?

 

Or even the question if he is a 3 fWAR player through his 5 years in Boston is it still not enough for Mookie in your mind?

 

I'm just intrigued here. I like Verdugo, and I think Fenway helps him but I also somehow get it. He maxes out at Starling Marte, but it's a very Rays type trade return for Chaim.

 

Big market teams operating like the Rays would be boring as hell. That's likely part of the backlash here. The Red Sox should not be making value driven decisions by trading a HOF level talent in his 20's. The Rays doing it is one thing since they trade anyone who makes a 7 figure salary, and they have no fanbase to add revenue, but the Red Sox draw 3 mil a year and are a cash cow. They shouldn't have to do this, even if it might make some baseball sense (Betts wants to test FA, they get more years of control, etc).

[Beans]

[Jimcanuck]

So the issue is Graterol's medical record. After looking at the record, Boston sees him as a reliever. Twinkies probably gonna cough up a different or additional asset. Lord knows the Red Sox farm could use reinforcement.

[Brownie19]

Big market teams operating like the Rays would be boring as hell. That's likely part of the backlash here. The Red Sox should not be making value driven decisions by trading a HOF level talent in his 20's. The Rays doing it is one thing since they trade anyone who makes a 7 figure salary, and they have no fanbase to add revenue, but the Red Sox draw 3 mil a year and are a cash cow. They shouldn't have to do this, even if it might make some baseball sense (Betts wants to test FA, they get more years of control, etc).

 

Isn't this as simple as the Red Sox evaluating the likelihood that they could sign Betts long term (or after he became a FA) and concluded it wasn't going to happen? Big market or not - it would be incredibly stupid to complete that evaluation, decide the odds of them retaining Betts were slim, and then keep him anyway.

[Laika]

So the issue is Graterol's medical record. After looking at the record, Boston sees him as a reliever. Twinkies probably gonna cough up a different or additional asset. Lord knows the Red Sox farm could use reinforcement.

 

Not sure it should be the Twinks. It might be the Dodgers that have to wiggle a bit. I bet they just absorb a bit more of Price's salary - seems like the easiest fix.

[max silver]

So the issue is Graterol's medical record. After looking at the record, Boston sees him as a reliever. Twinkies probably gonna cough up a different or additional asset. Lord knows the Red Sox farm could use reinforcement.

 

Seems pretty crazy for the Red Sox to cry about this now. The Twins were on record that they planned to use Graterol as a reliever going forward before this trade went down. The guy had shoulder impingement issues and a Tommy John surgery on his record, it's obvious his medicals weren't going to be flawless.

[Jimcanuck]

Not sure it should be the Twinks. It might be the Dodgers that have to wiggle a bit. I bet they just absorb a bit more of Price's salary - seems like the easiest fix.

 

Right, maybe. Although the team with the damaged goods is the Twins, not the Dodgers.

[Brownie19]

Right, maybe. Although the team with the damaged goods is the Twins, not the Dodgers.

 

The complication is a slightly damaged Graterol is probably still worth Maeda. It will be the Red Sox saying wait a minute, we gave up Betts, Price and $$$ and we didn't realize Graterol was this damaged. We need to get more from somebody in this deal. I agree - I suspect the Dodgers are the ones who get squeezed for more.