Around Baseball 2020

[glory]

This I can't disagree with the Rays model is tough, maybe impossible to market. Forty-six batting orders in 47 games...200 walks to just 209 singles. Having a guy with an over .600 slugging percentage who plays above average defense at 4 positions but 90% of fantasy baseball players couldn't even name cause he has half of the PA's of anyone in baseball. But they aren't doing this to keep Mike Brosseau cheap, they are using their advantages to ensure he has the best opportunity to be that good (and they know it's not in his skill set to do this full-time). They have 29 players this year above replacement level, and their biggest star from last year is not one of them. I am fully aware that I am in the minority in loving the structure and build of a 40 man roster, but it just blows me away that people can sit here and put down what they are building and have built. This is a team which has won the 5th most games in a 13 year stretch since Silverman has been President. I will take these Rays to win a World Series over the "young and exciting" White Sox (who still can't beat a good team) and the "you can't blow this" Padres.

 

Being well run and being bad for the sport are not mutually exclusive. Literally nothing the Rays do benefit their players or the sport. So while they have found a formula of getting the most out of very little, and it is very impressive based on their success, it's going to do more harm than good for the game if more teams start to emulate it. I would never want to root for a team like that, and hope the Jays don't steal some of those concepts in an effort to save money.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Being well run and being bad for the sport are not mutually exclusive. Literally nothing the Rays do benefit their players or the sport. So while they have found a formula of getting the most out of very little, and it is very impressive based on their success, it's going to do more harm than good for the game if more teams start to emulate it. I would never want to root for a team like that, and hope the Jays don't steal some of those concepts in an effort to save money.

 

My issue with the Rays "business model" is that its a "business model"...as a fan I like seeing players developed and star for years for the team.

Call me old fashion but I absolute hate seeing players develop then traded away in their prime.

[BTS]

I don't know where to find data on this, but it seems like the trend of using a 1-2 inning reliever to open a game is a lot less prevalent than it was last year.

[Grant77]

I don't know where to find data on this, but it seems like the trend of using a 1-2 inning reliever to open a game is a lot less prevalent than it was last year.

 

I feel like it could be effective if we use Robbie Ray against the Yankees. Start out with Hatch for 2 innings and force them to alter their lineup.

[Laika]

What's the difference between their baseball innovation and money saving innovation? Seems like they are one and the same to me. If I was a baseball player, I'd probably rather dip my nuts in boiling tar than play for the the Rays, who will inevitably try to screw me out of money.

 

It depends on the type of player you are. They are an excellent developmental organization and they are the best team in the sport at highlighting a player's strengths. They have made careers.

 

Here is one example

 

Logan Forsythe has 9.7 career WAR.

6.7 of that came during his time with the Rays.

They paid him $3.895 million during those years.

 

His career earnings are $21M.

The Dodgers paid him like $18M for 1.6 WAR the two years after Tampa traded him.

 

If Logan Forsythe is never traded to Tampa Bay, who knows what happens. He might never become a good enough player to be awarded $18M total in his final two arbitration years. He sucked the year before Tampa acquired him. Maybe he just flames out in San Diego and barely makes a few million.

 

There are guys like this every season.

 

CJ Cron - parlays 2.2 WAR in 2018 with Tampa (earned $2.3M) into $10.9M over the next two years and he suxxxxxxx.

[Boxcar]

It depends on the type of player you are. They are an excellent developmental organization and they are the best team in the sport at highlighting a player's strengths. They have made careers.

 

Here is one example

 

Logan Forsythe has 9.7 career WAR.

6.7 of that came during his time with the Rays.

They paid him $3.895 million during those years.

 

His career earnings are $21M.

The Dodgers paid him like $18M for 1.6 WAR the two years after Tampa traded him.

 

If Logan Forsythe is never traded to Tampa Bay, who knows what happens. He might never become a good enough player to be awarded $18M total in his final two arbitration years. He sucked the year before Tampa acquired him. Maybe he just flames out in San Diego and barely makes a few million.

 

There are guys like this every season.

 

CJ Cron - parlays 2.2 WAR in 2018 with Tampa (earned $2.3M) into $10.9M over the next two years and he suxxxxxxx.

 

Shut up

[Orgfiller]

Being well run and being bad for the sport are not mutually exclusive. Literally nothing the Rays do benefit their players or the sport. So while they have found a formula of getting the most out of very little, and it is very impressive based on their success, it's going to do more harm than good for the game if more teams start to emulate it. I would never want to root for a team like that, and hope the Jays don't steal some of those concepts in an effort to save money.

 

Someone like Tyler Glasnow, who has become an ace while on the Rays after being ruined by the Pirates, might disagree with this statement. Glasnow is must watch TV, which is good for the sport, and him being great certainly bodes well for his future earnings.

[connorp]

It depends on the type of player you are. They are an excellent developmental organization and they are the best team in the sport at highlighting a player's strengths. They have made careers.

 

Here is one example

 

Logan Forsythe has 9.7 career WAR.

6.7 of that came during his time with the Rays.

They paid him $3.895 million during those years.

 

His career earnings are $21M.

The Dodgers paid him like $18M for 1.6 WAR the two years after Tampa traded him.

 

If Logan Forsythe is never traded to Tampa Bay, who knows what happens. He might never become a good enough player to be awarded $18M total in his final two arbitration years. He sucked the year before Tampa acquired him. Maybe he just flames out in San Diego and barely makes a few million.

 

There are guys like this every season.

 

CJ Cron - parlays 2.2 WAR in 2018 with Tampa (earned $2.3M) into $10.9M over the next two years and he suxxxxxxx.

 

His numbers weren’t very different in Tampa. He mostly benefited in WAR by his wRC+ based on stadium factor which is kind of stupid as it’s based on the home ballpark but doesn’t take into account you’re going to play a ton of games you otherwise wouldn’t in launching pads of Tor, NY, and Bos

 

If I don’t properly understand sabr, tell me what I’m missing

[Orgfiller]

His numbers weren’t very different in Tampa. He mostly benefited in WAR by his wRC+ based on stadium factor which is kind of stupid as it’s based on the home ballpark but doesn’t take into account you’re going to play a ton of games you otherwise wouldn’t in launching pads of Tor, NY, and Bos

 

If I don’t properly understand sabr, tell me what I’m missing

 

Basically everything you said is wrong.

[connorp]

Lol. Just looked .753 Ops home. .869 away

[connorp]

Basically everything you said is wrong.

 

Ok. I’m genuinely listening. I thought I understood it

[BTS]

Somebody needs to fire a scout:

 

[Grant77]

Someone like Tyler Glasnow, who has become an ace while on the Rays after being ruined by the Pirates, might disagree with this statement. Glasnow is must watch TV, which is good for the sport, and him being great certainly bodes well for his future earnings.

 

If you're implying that another team wouldn't turn around Glasnow then I don't really agree. His stuff is so good, I think he would be at a similar or better level with any team that develops pitching reasonably well. We're talking 4.1 WAR in 3 seasons.

[Captain Adama]

His numbers weren’t very different in Tampa. He mostly benefited in WAR by his wRC+ based on stadium factor which is kind of stupid as it’s based on the home ballpark but doesn’t take into account you’re going to play a ton of games you otherwise wouldn’t in launching pads of Tor, NY, and Bos

 

If I don’t properly understand sabr, tell me what I’m missing

 

wRC+ takes ballparks into account connor.

[glory]

 

No days off in the WC/DS/CS. Curious to see how teams manage a 5-7 game series with no off days. Starters will likely have to pitch on short rest.

[connorp]

wRC+ takes ballparks into account connor.

 

Forgive me if I’m mistaken but it weighs your numbers based on your home ballpark only and not all the parks you played in.

 

So it’s not taking into account he only hit .753 OPS in the pitchers park he was playing in. It’s taking his final numbers (with a clear boost in this case from other AL East ballparks) and weighing that

 

I’m not claiming it’s not a great stat taking home stadium and average yearly performance into consideration but I just think that’s an example of giving it a second glance

[Olerud363]

I don't know where to find data on this, but it seems like the trend of using a 1-2 inning reliever to open a game is a lot less prevalent than it was last year.

 

Not sure where you'd find data. It seems like the trend has changed subtly. They are pulling the starter quick and then the putting the reliever in. Or maybe not. I seem to remember it happening both ways this year.

 

The other day they went Ray/Merryweather instead of Merryweather/Ray

 

Does it even matter which way it is?? I guess if Ray shits himself you want to know that before wasting Merryweather.

 

On the other hand if you want Ray to get some wins with low innings wouldn't you rather it go Merryweather/Ray. That way Ray can get the win with 4 and 1/3 and a giant settlement in arbitration when he goes 11-4.

[Olerud363]

Forgive me if I’m mistaken but it weighs your numbers based on your home ballpark only and not all the parks you played in.

 

So it’s not taking into account he only hit .753 OPS in the pitchers park he was playing in. It’s taking his final numbers (with a clear boost in this case from other AL East ballparks) and weighing that

 

Are you comparing AL East to NL West??

 

Colorado, Arizona, San Fran, Sandiego

 

vs

 

Baltimore, NY, Boston, Toronto

 

Not going to bother looking up the numbers, but will say Colorado is so extreme it evens out for the slight hitting parks in the East.

[Boxcar]

Somebody needs to fire a scout:

 

 

Was there a good pitcher convention somewhere and the plane crashed?

[connorp]

Are you comparing AL East to NL West??

 

Colorado, Arizona, San Fran, Sandiego

 

vs

 

Baltimore, NY, Boston, Toronto

 

Not going to bother looking up the numbers, but will say Colorado is so extreme it evens out for the slight hitting parks in the East.

 

COL is obviously kind of an outlier but just saying seems wise to look at home/away splits on a guy like Tulo or Blackmon when you have a lot of data. Then you’d obviously factor in his away splits are going to be in a lot of pitchers park and take that into account.

 

I just don’t get why you wouldn’t take the stat to the next step and determine a stadium factor for all the games they play

 

In TAM you have a pitchers park and then a ton of games in launch pads

Edited September 15, 2020 by connorp

[Laika]

His numbers weren’t very different in Tampa. He mostly benefited in WAR by his wRC+ based on stadium factor which is kind of stupid as it’s based on the home ballpark but doesn’t take into account you’re going to play a ton of games you otherwise wouldn’t in launching pads of Tor, NY, and Bos

 

If I don’t properly understand sabr, tell me what I’m missing

 

Are you talking about Cron or Forsythe? Either way, both of them were not dramatically better with Tampa than they were two years before coming to Tampa. Tampa is good at identifying talent who underperformed recently and buying low on them then giving them the perfect amount of playing time in optimal situations.

 

On wRC+, I believe it is home park adjusted AND league adjusted (AL/NL) but I don't think Fangraphs does any type of divisional adjustment so you might actually have a point. I'm sure some huge f***ing nerd has solved this but it's too complex to permeate the veil of popularity.

There is a reason that Dave Cameron used to say that fWAR is not accurate to the decimal point e.g. you can't really say that someone who had 2.5 WAR was better than someone who had 2.3 WAR.

[TheHurl]

Being well run and being bad for the sport are not mutually exclusive. Literally nothing the Rays do benefit their players or the sport. So while they have found a formula of getting the most out of very little, and it is very impressive based on their success, it's going to do more harm than good for the game if more teams start to emulate it. I would never want to root for a team like that, and hope the Jays don't steal some of those concepts in an effort to save money.

 

And now do the Jays? This front office is literally copying the model with the difference being that Jays young players happen to be sons of Major League players. As a Jays fan would you take six 90 win seasons in the decade of 2020's but in exchange no player stays with the team for the entire decade, with over 150 players seeing the major league roster over this time?

[Boxcar]

And now do the Jays? This front office is literally copying the model with the difference being that Jays young players happen to be sons of Major League players. As a Jays fan would you take six 90 win seasons in the decade of 2020's but in exchange no player stays with the team for the entire decade, with over 150 players seeing the major league roster over this time?

 

Oh yeah? Where are our s***** no name platoon players? Where are our s***** openers? Where are all the trades that happened as soon as a player got expensive?

 

You're full of s***

[Olerud363]

And now do the Jays? This front office is literally copying the model with the difference being that Jays young players happen to be sons of Major League players. As a Jays fan would you take six 90 win seasons in the decade of 2020's but in exchange no player stays with the team for the entire decade, with over 150 players seeing the major league roster over this time?

 

I would take it grudingly and remember that I made this deal when Vladdy hits

 

2023 (Jays) - .277 17 67

(released a la David Ortiz as it's been 5 years and the arb price doesn't make sense)

2024 (Red Sox) - .325 38 109

 

2040 - Holy f*** that fat guy lasted a long time as Red Sox DH. What team did he start with again?

 

Have to guarantee me 6, 90 win seasons before I take that. A lot of fans probably wouldn't take it.

[TheHurl]

Oh yeah? Where are our s***** no name platoon players?

 

Tellez, Drury, Panik, Villar, Fisher, Alford, Jansen, Kirk

 

Where are our s***** openers?

 

Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, Waguespack, Borucki, Thornton, Shun, SRF, & Gaviglio.

 

What I meant is that the very basic model. Jays are trying to build a deeper 40 man, full of players with options, even if some of the players are a little one or two dimensional. They are also quicker to move a starter to the pen rather than throwing out s***** claimed relievers or dealing in the always overpriced back end reliever free agent market. I don't believe that the Jays budget will ever be as tight as the Rays, so I think the concentration on depth will be very beneficial to the Jays. I think the Jays front office is a little Rays and a little Dodgers. Pretty good models to follow IMO. Personally I'd love it if the Jays have six 90 win seasons over the next decade...even if they don't win one.

[King]

Does Boxy even try to be right?

[Boxcar]

Does Boxy even try to be right?

 

I don't. It comes naturally.

[Boxcar]

Tellez, Drury, Panik, Villar, Fisher, Alford, Jansen, Kirk

 

 

Starting 1B, Utility player who got cut, utility player, fill in for Bichette, bench outfielder, s***** prospect who finally got DFA'd, solid back up catcher, I know what you're trying to do here, *******, how dare you.

 

 

Hatch, Kay, Merryweather, Waguespack, Borucki, Thornton, Shun, SRF, & Gaviglio.

 

admittedly, the pitching sitch is a lot closer to the Rays, which sucks and everyone hopes won't end up being the case because watching it sucks ass.

 

What I meant is that the very basic model. Jays are trying to build a deeper 40 man, full of players with options, even if some of the players are a little one or two dimensional. They are also quicker to move a starter to the pen rather than throwing out s***** claimed relievers or dealing in the always overpriced back end reliever free agent market. I don't believe that the Jays budget will ever be as tight as the Rays, so I think the concentration on depth will be very beneficial to the Jays. I think the Jays front office is a little Rays and a little Dodgers. Pretty good models to follow IMO. Personally I'd love it if the Jays have six 90 win seasons over the next decade...even if they don't win one.

 

I didn't read the rest but you're wrong

[Slade]

 

Kind of expected this.

[BTS]

 

Kind of expected this.

 

Great, MLB is the NHL now. Only worse because they have 162 games to separate the good teams from the bad instead of 82.