General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[connorp]

We were talking in the context of fans bro

[Spanky99]

We were talking in the context of fans bro

 

Partially.

[G-Snarls]

And Lynn was not nearly that good in 2020, or 2018, or any other time in his career.

 

Toronto just isn't in the position to be trading very valuable futures for one year of an older pitcher. Lynn is solid and he's on a nice 2020 contract but Jansen is worth twice as much as him in trade and Toronto will be targeting players who can grow with the team or help them over the next few years

 

Agreed

 

If I want one year of someone older I want Scherzer

 

I would only trade for a rental at trade deadline for a lesser package

[Spanky99]

Jays bit on Odorizzi...

 

The Mets were linked to Jake Odorizzi’s market last month, though the team doesn’t appear to be one of the front-runners for the right-hander’s services, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Odorizzi “is believed to be much more engaged with other teams right now.” We heard yesterday that the Twins were also falling behind in the race to sign Odorizzi, which could potentially mean good news for the Giants and Blue Jays — the other two teams cited as having interest in Odorizzi back in November.

 

San Francisco and Toronto are two of the teams considered to be most fervently exploring the pitching market thus far, with Sherman also listing the Padres, White Sox, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels as being particularly keen on adding arms. It’s probably safe to guess that at least a couple of those teams have also checked in on Odorizzi, who was projected by MLBTR to receive a three-year, $39MM free agent deal.

 

So much conjecture, lol.

[connorp]

Who cares what fans think, you're looking at it through a different lens, his value is higher than Lynn? Nice c-poop projection there bro, lol. TIL... 50 FV is avridge!!!

 

I was mostly talking about fan reaction but if you want to expand it to trade value/precedent, we can do that too.

What was the board reaction to the Happ trade? I honestly don’t recall. Because 2 months of him cost Drury and McKinney, 2 solid 50 FV prospects that had lost their shine but still weren’t yet lost casuses, not unlike DJ.

 

So if we had a full year of control and dealt Happ for either of those guys (and just one mind you), what do you think the reaction would’ve been? I realize DJ has a better defensive rating in sss that you may lean on for more value but Lynn is also a bit better than Happ. It’s not apples to apples but it’s a fair comparison

[Jimcanuck]

I was mostly talking about fan reaction but if you want to expand it to trade value/precedent, we can do that too.

What was the board reaction to the Happ trade? I honestly don’t recall. Because 2 months of him cost Drury and McKinney, 2 solid 50 FV prospects that had lost their shine but still weren’t yet lost casuses, not unlike DJ.

 

So if we had a full year of control and dealt Happ for either of those guys (and just one mind you), what do you think the reaction would’ve been? I realize DJ has a better defensive rating in sss that you may lean on for more value but Lynn is also a bit better than Happ. It’s not apples to apples but it’s a fair comparison

 

Neither Drury or McKinney were ever FV 50, and never sniffed a top 100 - these guys have always been projected as bench players. Whereas Jansen peaked in the 50-75 range of top 100.

[connorp]

I’d have to Google but think you’re wrong

[Ryu In My House]

Neither Drury or McKinney were ever FV 50, and never sniffed a top 100 - these guys have always been projected as bench players. Whereas Jansen peaked in the 50-75 range of top 100.

 

I think both guys were like 40 or 45. Certainly not 50.

[max silver]

Neither Drury or McKinney were ever FV 50, and never sniffed a top 100 - these guys have always been projected as bench players. Whereas Jansen peaked in the 50-75 range of top 100.

 

I view Danny Jansen's maximum ceiling being a Yasmani Grandal type dual threat. Both Jansen and Grandal put up similar numbers as minor leaguers, with similar iso numbers, similar k/bb rates, similar WRC+. Jansen needs to start squaring up more baseballs to reach his ceiling, but I see no way that he will be a sub .200 BABIP player forever. Both Jansen and Grandal are very good defensive catchers as well. Trading a player of this potential calibre away for a 1 year rental player is monumentally stupid. I could see him being a key piece to a trade for somebody like Yu Darvish, but the key is the need to get some control back in any trade.

[connorp]

I think both guys were like 40 or 45. Certainly not 50.

 

Keep in mind we’re talking about if they were Top 100 guys a few years prior to the trade ala Jansen.

 

So 2015 Drury and McKinney. Pretty sure McKinney was Top 100

[connorp]

Mlb pipeline Drury was #5 prospect for AZ and 50 FV 2015

And McKinney was Top 100 prosprct in few lists 2014/2015

[connorp]

For the record I wouldn’t move Jansen for Lynn based on fact Tor is still “look to the future team”. If they were legit WS contender I prob would. But just saying as Rangers fan I wouldn’t get a chubby with DJ as return for Lynn

[Laika]

Bad comps happening ITT. McKinney and Drury were at best post-hype sleepers at the time of the Happ trade... Jansen is a solid C with clear and demonstrable upside. The comparison might be fair if Jansen had been a replacement level catcher the last two years and was now projected as a non starter in Toronto

[connorp]

If you concede his 2019 defensive value was at least a little inflated, he’s been basically a 1 WAR player the last 2 seasons. And he could very well not be the primary C by May if he comes out slow with the bat again

[Dick_Pole]

Cavan Biggio trying hard to recruit George Springer over Zoom, lol

 

To me this is the biggest revelation in the entire article. If the Jays are getting their young guys to recruit others, they have successfully bought into the team's propaganda. That greatly increases the chances of the team signing them to long term deals at good prices. Brilliant move by the FO.

[Dick_Pole]

I view Danny Jansen's maximum ceiling being a Yasmani Grandal type dual threat. Both Jansen and Grandal put up similar numbers as minor leaguers, with similar iso numbers, similar k/bb rates, similar WRC+. Jansen needs to start squaring up more baseballs to reach his ceiling, but I see no way that he will be a sub .200 BABIP player forever. Both Jansen and Grandal are very good defensive catchers as well. Trading a player of this potential calibre away for a 1 year rental player is monumentally stupid. I could see him being a key piece to a trade for somebody like Yu Darvish, but the key is the need to get some control back in any trade.

 

Hey if we're lucky maybe the entire team plays according to your perceived ceiling of them and the Jays win 140 games this year

[Laika]

If you concede his 2019 defensive value was at least a little inflated, he’s been basically a 1 WAR player the last 2 seasons. And he could very well not be the primary C by May if he comes out slow with the bat again

 

Why would anyone concede that?

[connorp]

Why would anyone concede that?

 

Because there’s wild fluctuations year-to-year and so it’s best to take the avg of a few years?

Obviously he seems to be plus defender just not 17 runs in 100 games good

[Spanky99]

I was mostly talking about fan reaction but if you want to expand it to trade value/precedent, we can do that too.

What was the board reaction to the Happ trade? I honestly don’t recall. Because 2 months of him cost Drury and McKinney, 2 solid 50 FV prospects that had lost their shine but still weren’t yet lost casuses, not unlike DJ.

 

So if we had a full year of control and dealt Happ for either of those guys (and just one mind you), what do you think the reaction would’ve been? I realize DJ has a better defensive rating in sss that you may lean on for more value but Lynn is also a bit better than Happ. It’s not apples to apples but it’s a fair comparison

 

Oh boy, lol.

[Dick_Pole]

Talk on Twitter of Gurriel being a centerpiece to a Lindor deal and of half the casual homers are having a hard time coping lol. If Gurriel is the main piece in that deal I'm dancing. Especially if they get an extension.

[Spanky99]

Talk on Twitter of Gurriel being a centerpiece to a Lindor deal and of half the casual homers are having a hard time coping lol. If Gurriel is the main piece in that deal I'm dancing. Especially if they get an extension.

 

Where's this?

[Jimcanuck]

I bet if the Jays swing a deal for Lindor, Springer signs within an hour later.

[Laika]

Because there’s wild fluctuations year-to-year and so it’s best to take the avg of a few years?

Obviously he seems to be plus defender just not 17 runs in 100 games good

 

Even if he's not a true talent +10 defender, 2019 still happened. You're not quite understanding what it means for a stat to take a while to stabilize.

 

His career stats already "average out" his defensive prowess across three seasons, and he's been a 2.6 fWAR player in 181 games while probably getting very unlucky offensively. It doesn't make any sense to just steal wins from him retroactively. It's like you're saying "if this player was worse I would be right".

 

And if anything the current state of defensive metrics drastically underrate decent catchers.

[Grant77]

I bet if the Jays swing a deal for Lindor, Springer signs within an hour later.

 

Lindor

Biggio

Springer

Hernandez

Bichette

Guerrero Jr

Tellez

Grichuk

Jansen

 

That's an awfully nice looking lineup, however you order it.

[G-Snarls]

Lindor

Biggio

Springer

Hernandez

Bichette

Guerrero Jr

Tellez

Grichuk

Jansen

 

That's an awfully nice looking lineup, however you order it.

 

You mean even Montoyo can't find a way to mess it up?

[Grant77]

You mean even Montoyo can't find a way to mess it up?

 

I fully expect to see Jansen hit cleanup at some point.

[Jimcanuck]

Lindor

Biggio

Springer

Hernandez

Bichette

Guerrero Jr

Tellez

Grichuk

Jansen

 

That's an awfully nice looking lineup, however you order it.

 

Some defensive weakness..... this is what I like

 

Lindor SS

Biggio LF

Bichette 3B

Springer CF

Guerrero Jr 1B

Hernandez / Tellez DH

Grichuk RF

Jansen C

Wong 2B

 

Hernandez getting time in the OF, Tellez at 1B, Biggio at 2B, Bichette at SS, Vlad at 3B, but the above is offensively and defensively an incredible group

[glory]

I wouldn't be against Gurriel as the main piece for Lindor, but I'd be wary of extending him for 10 years or whatever it would cost to lock him up before hitting free agency.

[Laika]

I wouldn't be against Gurriel as the main piece for Lindor, but I'd be wary of extending him for 10 years or whatever it would cost to lock him up before hitting free agency.

 

Why would you be "wary" of that?

 

He's an elite two-way player and possible future hall of famer. He's 27. The 3rd best position player in the league since 2015 when he broke in. If he's willing to go long with Toronto they should get it on paper that minute, before he changes his mind.

 

These aren't the type of players who even give Toronto a second thought most of the time.

 

It's not your money and Toronto has the payroll space.

[saskjayfan]

Some defensive weakness..... this is what I like

 

Lindor SS

Biggio LF

Bichette 3B

Springer CF

Guerrero Jr 1B

Hernandez / Tellez DH

Grichuk RF

Jansen C

Wong 2B

 

Hernandez getting time in the OF, Tellez at 1B, Biggio at 2B, Bichette at SS, Vlad at 3B, but the above is offensively and defensively an incredible group

 

So we're not spending a dime on pitching outside of Ray...lol.