General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[KevinGregg]

Well, now you're just getting into the realm where 3/3 doesn't actually equal 1, but 0.999999 repeated until infinity.

 

Except that 0.999 repeating does in fact exactly equal 1

 

https://www.purplemath.com/modules/howcan1.htm

[Krylian]

Except that 0.999 repeating does in fact exactly equal 1

 

https://www.purplemath.com/modules/howcan1.htm

 

Sometimes being excessively literal warrants a swift kick to the pills. People who actually have the time to seriously devote countless hours to debating the difference between 0.99999 and 1 aren't busy enough. Pick up a hammer and get to work. This world is broken...and it ain't because 0.999999 = 1.

[Orgfiller]

Sometimes being excessively literal warrants a swift kick to the pills. People who actually have the time to seriously devote countless hours to debating the difference between 0.99999 and 1 aren't busy enough. Pick up a hammer and get to work. This world is broken...and it ain't because 0.999999 = 1.

 

This is an excessively boomer post.

[Spanky99]

I choose winning game 3

 

lol... exactly.

[Boxcar]

You brought up the intangibles you fart! Praying to Mecca for you to get hit by a bus right now

 

Mashallah alhamdulillah

[Boxcar]

Perhaps my phrasing was inartful, but you need to win 66% of the total games in a series to win a 3 game series.

 

If you are recalculating after game 1, then it becomes 50% v/ 100%.

 

It's the same math, I'm just looking at the sum total of games, not the number of games remaining.

 

Why would you take the first game into account after it has already been completed?

[Jimcanuck]

Had no idea a best of 3 is so complicated.

[Krylian]

This is an excessively boomer post.

 

Maybe so.....but get to work anyway.

[Grant77]

OK.

 

1. Is your number correct?? I mean you can't say "I can't recall exactly"... If it was actually 120-43 that is a huge difference.

 

2. Is the number way higher then what would be expected given randomly matched teams?? Yes it is, if your number is accurate.

 

3. Is the number way higher then what would be expected given un-matched teams? One team is often a bit better than the other, that team will win game 1 and the series more often.

 

126-49, I found it. All things being equal, you would expect about 116 wins, but game 1 is obviously more important than the rest of the games in a series

 

I can't say about game 2 specifically without stats, but game 1 in a series is more important than games 2 through 6 collectively.

[Dokken]

No, f*** you. You are implying that the intangibles work in some way against the team that will be down 1-0. I am saying that are intangibles and you can't even assume a direction for them. wbgtikujgbtiuwerybgtiuyewrbgtiyujrebgtiurwebuirewbtniuowerhbtiuwer4bgte4uirwb

 

I thought there was an initiative to make this forum more cordial. For a 'moderator' to tell someone off like that because you don't like what he posted,... seriously!?. Grow up!!!

[Laika]

I thought there was an initiative to make this forum more cordial. For a 'moderator' to tell someone off like that because you don't like what he posted,... seriously!?. Grow up!!!

 

Nobody ever used the word "cordial". I can tell connorp to f*** off because he's a sub and he likes it.

[Dokken]

Nobody ever used the word "cordial". I can tell connorp to f*** off because he's a sub and he likes it.

 

Good way to bring in new members brainwave. By the way, that pic of Rosco still sucks balls, so how about that big boy?!

[Olerud363]

126-49, I found it. All things being equal, you would expect about 116 wins, but game 1 is obviously more important than the rest of the games in a series

 

I can't say about game 2 specifically without stats, but game 1 in a series is more important than games 2 through 6 collectively.

 

Sorry. You haven't proven your point scientifically at all.

 

a) Where did you find your statistic?? Do you have a link? The only thing I could find is this https://time.com/4972537/baseball-playoffs-first-round/. Which is similar to your stat except the sample size is half as small, which is important if we eventually get into doing statistical tests.

 

The teams aren't evenly matched. If they were you'd expect 116 wins yes. However teams aren't evenly matched, better teams will win the 1st game and the series more often, so the true expectation is more than 116.

 

c) Given is 126 (63?) wins even significant using formal statistics?? 175 (or 88) samples don't prove the process is biased.

 

d) You didn't really prove game 1 is the most important compared to other games. What about game 2?? How many series does the winner of game 2 win? (I see now you acknowledged this, but didn't provide numbers)

Edited September 29, 2020 by Olerud363

[Olerud363]

As I predicted Grant's statistic was wrong... and it just happened to be wrong in his direction

 

Originally he said the team winning game 1, wins 124-39.

 

In fact it is now reported by Grant (still without evidence) as 126-49... big difference,

 

Next: I predict Grant's percentage might be right but I wonder if he can provide a link to his data? I'd be interested to see it.

 

I kind of wonder if it is based on this https://time.com/4972537/baseball-playoffs-first-round/

 

Same percentages but half the sample size... perhaps another little "mistake" that just happens to be in Grant's favor.

[Grant77]

Sorry. You haven't proven your point scientifically at all.

 

a) Where did you find your statistic?? Do you have a link? The only thing I could find is this https://time.com/4972537/baseball-playoffs-first-round/. Which is similar to your stat except the sample size is half as small, which is important if we eventually get into doing statistical tests.

 

The teams aren't evenly matched. If they were you'd expect 116 wins yes. However teams aren't evenly matched, better teams will win the 1st game and the series more often, so the true expectation is more than 116.

 

c) Given is 126 (63?) wins even significant using formal statistics?? 175 (or 88) samples don't prove the process is biased.

 

d) You didn't really prove game 1 is the most important compared to other games. What about game 2?? How many series does the winner of game 2 win? (I see now you acknowledged this, but didn't provide numbers)

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-continue-buck-baseball-tradition-start-shoemaker-game-1/

 

Only point c holds any water and I can't really answer that without doing a whole lot of data collection and number crunching to get the standard deviation. However, given the big sample size and very large difference from the expected result, it's highly likely that it is significant.

 

It's no surprise or fluke that game 1 is more important than the others. The stats strongly back that conclusion and so does the traditional wisdom.

 

You'll never agree even if someone did an overwhelmingly convincing analysis, but so be it. That's just what you do.

[jerb]

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

 

Bit of #BlueJays minutiae: Wilmer Font has elected free agency. Jays designated him last week after he posted a 9.92 ERA over 21 games.

[Deadpool]

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

 

Bit of #BlueJays minutiae: Wilmer Font has elected free agency. Jays designated him last week after he posted a 9.92 ERA over 21 games.

 

He was great (well, useful) last year, awful this year. Such is the volatility of relief pitching.

[Olerud363]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-continue-buck-baseball-tradition-start-shoemaker-game-1/

 

Only point c holds any water and I can't really answer that without doing a whole lot of data collection and number crunching to get the standard deviation. However, given the big sample size and very large difference from the expected result, it's highly likely that it is significant.

 

It's no surprise or fluke that game 1 is more important than the others. The stats strongly back that conclusion and so does the traditional wisdom.

 

You'll never agree even if someone did an overwhelmingly convincing analysis, but so be it. That's just what you do.

 

This is crazy. Every mistake is in your favor. Even your 116 estimate is off... that is for 7 game series, when over half the series are 5 game

 

So we would expect (4*120+3*116)/7 = 118.3

 

I did some simulations and I think the standard deviation for repeated trials of 175 games is about 5.5... So if that's true, 126/175 is not statistically significant I don't think.

 

The 95 % confidence interval of the true value (118.3) is about 107.5 to 129...

 

Maybe I made a mistake... I just ran the numbers pretty quick, and most of the time was spent trying to figure out why I wasn't getting 116 wins / 175 (because your number was biased to 7 game series).

[Olerud363]

And... another mistake in your favor...

 

The coin is biased. One team is better than the other. It doesn't matter that much, but it biases the problem again in your favor. Every little approximation you make is always in your favor. Funny how that happens.

[Jimcanuck]

Logic says that before the start of a series, games 1 and 2 have equal importance. After game 1, the importance of Game 2 changes for both teams, depending on who won game 1.

 

Nobody needs math to prove or disprove these unalienable truths.

 

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[Laika]

This is crazy. Every mistake is in your favor.

 

classic grant seventy seven

[L54]

First team to win two games moves on. You nerds need to get off your phones and get outside holy s***

[Dick_Pole]

In a 3 game series you need to win 66% of the games. If you've already won 1 game, you now have to win 33% of the games, while your opponent still has to win 66% of the games.

 

[Olerud363]

First team to win two games moves on. You nerds need to get off your phones and get outside holy s***

 

I don't use a phone, arguments like these need a high powered work station to write the pycode that will prove Grant wrong. I rarely go outside anyway but now I probably won't see the sun for months as I am in the midst of writing a huge simulation which pits historical teams of different quality against each other in 3, 5, 7 and even 9 game series.

 

It is fun. Maybe I'll have the 93 Jays play the 61 Yankees in one the simulations. What percentage of the time do you think the Jays will win if they win the first game of the series?

[Laika]

I don't use a phone, arguments like these need a high powered work station to write the pycode that will prove Grant wrong. I rarely go outside anyway but now I probably won't see the sun for months as I am in the midst of writing a huge simulation which pits historical teams of different quality against each other in 3, 5, 7 and even 9 game series.

 

It is fun. Maybe I'll have the 93 Jays play the 61 Yankees in one the simulations. What percentage of the time do you think the Jays will win if they win the first game of the series?

 

This is my favourite post ever

[Spanky99]

This is my favourite post ever

 

Another Olerud Classic!

[Brenner]

First team to win two games moves on. You nerds need to get off your phones and get outside holy s***

 

But which two games??

[glory]

Joel Sherman had an idea on the MLB Network that I really liked regarding the Wild Card round (assuming expanded playoffs sticks): if the higher seed wins Game 1, then they win the series, but if the higher seed loses Game 1, then it's officially a 3 game series. Which means every game in that round would be an elimination game for one of the teams. It would solve this thread's argument about which game(s) matter more.

[Abomination]

Joel Sherman had an idea on the MLB Network that I really liked regarding the Wild Card round (assuming expanded playoffs sticks): if the higher seed wins Game 1, then they win the series, but if the higher seed loses Game 1, then it's officially a 3 game series. Which means every game in that round would be an elimination game for one of the teams. It would solve this thread's argument about which game(s) matter more.

 

Huh. I don't know what to think about that.

[Ex Player]

At least we're getting a bit better odds for game 2 then we were yesterday:

 

https://www.flashscore.com/match/xtKHvqa2/#odds-comparison;home-away;ft-including-ot