General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[bronson44]

He'll step onto the mound, rock into his delivery, and vanish before he's actually able to make a pitch.

 

He'll throw one pitch then walk into a field of corn.

[gruber92]

He'll throw one pitch then walk into a field of corn.

 

I wonder if Merryweather studied medicine

[Boxcar]

The top 2 teams in each division make the playoffs regardless of record. So let's assume:

 

NYY, TAM

MIN, CLE

OAK, HOU

 

So that leaves two spots open. BAL, SEA, KCR, DET, and BOS all rebuilding/tanking. Angels suck. That leaves 2 spots for Toronto, White Sox, Rangers.

 

Damn, the Jays actually have a better chance than I thought. Of course Bo being out hurts those chances a lot.

 

I'd love to make the playoffs this year if only to make Buntoyo's incompetence more widely known so that hopefully Atkins would need to do something about it.

[43211234]

If the Blue Jays win tomorrow they will be half a game back of the Orioles for one of the Wild Card spots lol

 

 

By the way, is there any site that has a standings page updated for the new format? MLB's own page hasn't been updated. It still shows the old Wildcard games-back.

[BlueRocky]

I'd love to make the playoffs this year if only to make Buntoyo's incompetence more widely known so that hopefully Atkins would need to do something about it.

 

I am fully prepared for the scenario that Joe Panik will go Steve Pearce 2.0 in the postseason and Montoyo will be extended for life.

[Grant77]

I am fully prepared for the scenario that Joe Panik will go Steve Pearce 2.0 in the postseason and Montoyo will be extended for life.

 

If that somehow wins a world series then I'm cool with a 12 year extension for both

[Ex Player]

9-11 now. Jays next goal should be getting to .500

[Krylian]

9-11 now. Jays next goal should be getting to .500

 

No. The next goal is to get to 10-11.

 

One game at a time, man.

[RustyTrombone]

How about that Randall Grichuk guy tho? He seems to have made legitimate improvements to his game. Yea hes rocking a high BABIP right now but even when that comes down (or it might not) his improved plate discipline and whiff % should allow him to be an 120 wRC+ hitter. Dropped his chase rate from 33.3% to 25.9% and his whiff from 28.1% to 20.7%. Time to start getting excited?

[BlueRocky]

His adjustments make sense to me. We always thought his bat can be decent if his walk rate hovers close to 10%, which he’s doing now in short sample. The power is there. I just don’t want to believe it until he stays consistent for a full season, since consistency was also a huge issue with Grichuk as his approach and swing keeps changing.

He just needs to be 2 WAR to justify that contract. A 30 HR bat with .340 OBP should easily reach that threshold.

[Laika]

How about that Randall Grichuk guy tho? He seems to have made legitimate improvements to his game. Yea hes rocking a high BABIP right now but even when that comes down (or it might not) his improved plate discipline and whiff % should allow him to be an 120 wRC+ hitter. Dropped his chase rate from 33.3% to 25.9% and his whiff from 28.1% to 20.7%. Time to start getting excited?

 

The strikeout rate is starting to look like an actual improvement. Too early to say for the BB rate (takes longer to stabilize).

[BlueRocky]

If the Blue Jays win tomorrow they will be half a game back of the Orioles for one of the Wild Card spots lol

 

 

By the way, is there any site that has a standings page updated for the new format? MLB's own page hasn't been updated. It still shows the old Wildcard games-back.

 

Postseason odds updated to 44.5% after yesterday. That’s a lot higher than most years.

[Sorrow]

Pearson to the DL with right elbow tightness according to Nicholson-Smith.

 

I wonder if he's been hiding something, his walk rate is abysmal when compared to anything he's done in the MiLB.

[Stangstag]

Pearson to the DL with right elbow tightness according to Nicholson-Smith.

 

I wonder if he's been hiding something, his walk rate is abysmal when compared to anything he's done in the MiLB.

 

Kinda seems like he did nothing to keep in shape/prepare for the season from since spring training, like Vlad. He’s not the only one, there’s lots of pitchers getting injured around the league. But it does seem to me like he didn’t practice at all during the summer lockdown

[Slade]

Kinda seems like he did nothing to keep in shape/prepare for the season from since spring training, like Vlad. He’s not the only one, there’s lots of pitchers getting injured around the league. But it does seem to me like he didn’t practice at all during the summer lockdown

 

How did you get that? Goes against everything that was reported on during Spring/Summer training camp. Pitchers get hurt, it happens.

 

Vlad is totally different, you can visibly see he gave up on his conditioning.

[Brownie19]

How about that Randall Grichuk guy tho? He seems to have made legitimate improvements to his game. Yea hes rocking a high BABIP right now but even when that comes down (or it might not) his improved plate discipline and whiff % should allow him to be an 120 wRC+ hitter. Dropped his chase rate from 33.3% to 25.9% and his whiff from 28.1% to 20.7%. Time to start getting excited?

 

It's going to take the full 60 games (+ probably another 60 next year) for me to buy that Grichuk has made sustained improvements to his game. When he's hot he's hot and he's hot right now.

 

Buck did his annual talk about how Grichuk's made real adjustments at the plate last night - how he's swinging at 'his pitches' and thinking up the middle. I hope that's not where this discussion originated from because only sheep would take anything Buck says seriously. I wish Jomboy would do a breakdown of how Buck's made the same claim about Grichuk (and Pillar before that) for the past 5-7 years.

Edited August 19, 2020 by Brownie19

[Olerud363]

His adjustments make sense to me. We always thought his bat can be decent if his walk rate hovers close to 10%, which he’s doing now in short sample. The power is there. I just don’t want to believe it until he stays consistent for a full season, since consistency was also a huge issue with Grichuk as his approach and swing keeps changing.

He just needs to be 2 WAR to justify that contract. A 30 HR bat with .340 OBP should easily reach that threshold.

 

He's always been a 2+ WAR guy even with a .290, .300 on base percentage.

 

Last year it took a .280 on base percentage and a slip in D to get him down to 0.5.

 

If his defense rebounded he could be a 4-5 WAR guy with a .340 on base percentage. This year he's projected as a 5 WAR guy but that is with -8 defense...

 

I think getting guys not to completely suck is important. A good team has a few great players and a few players who aren't the worst.

 

Improving fat-asses like Vlad from a -20 defensive rating to -5 would be huge.

 

Improving base non-cloggers from a .280 on base percentage to .300 is big.

 

Improving an innings eating piece of s*** from a 6.00 era to 4.75 would be big.

 

That's assuming you develop some stars and the above are the other guys.

[Orgfiller]

Kinda seems like he did nothing to keep in shape/prepare for the season from since spring training, like Vlad. He’s not the only one, there’s lots of pitchers getting injured around the league. But it does seem to me like he didn’t practice at all during the summer lockdown

 

Ah yes, baseless accusations.

[BlueRocky]

Pearson to the DL with right elbow tightness according to Nicholson-Smith.

 

I wonder if he's been hiding something, his walk rate is abysmal when compared to anything he's done in the MiLB.

 

His fastball command has never been this bad ever since he reworked the delivery to only pitch from the stretch, since the AFL when he touched 104 MPH.

 

If it’s a health thing, that does make some sense. But a lot of pitchers don’t look right at this time, it’s been a very weird season.

 

Just pray it’s not a long term injury.

Edited August 19, 2020 by BlueRocky

[glory]

I think there is a change in Grichuk and it's not just BABIP luck. According to statcast he is in the 75th percentile in whiff% so far this season, and his walk rate is close to 10%, which is a huge improvement over pre-2019/his career. It's practically a different player than what he used to be. In 2018 he was hitting the ball hard and barreling everything with bad plate discipline. They seemed to make some adjustment with him to reduce K's and remove a lot of the swing and miss in his game, but that impacted EV/hard hit/barrel% big time in 2019 which lead to his poor season. If he could combine his 2020 change with his pre-2019 power, you got a damn good offensive player.

 

I'm not believing the hype yet. This is still a small sample size and he's historically better in July-Sept for whatever reason, so let's see him do this from start to finish next season. However, I don't think this is just BABIP related. He's made a real change. Whether it leads to a jump in offensive value moving forward remains to be seen.

[RustyTrombone]

It's going to take the full 60 games (+ probably another 60 next year) for me to buy that Grichuk has made sustained improvements to his game. When he's hot he's hot and he's hot right now.

 

Buck did his annual talk about how Grichuk's made real adjustments at the plate last night - how he's swinging at 'his pitches' and thinking up the middle. I hope that's not where this discussion originated from because only sheep would take anything Buck says seriously. I wish Jomboy would do a breakdown of how Buck's made the same claim about Grichuk (and Pillar before that) for the past 5-7 years.

 

I get that, but even in his hot streaks in the past he would still K a lot and hardly walk. Im not even looking at his bated ball data, im looking strictly at his chase rates and whiff rates and they suggest hes made substantial improvements. Only reason Buck is talking about it cause Grichuk has a shiny .330 BA. If Grichuk was batting .250 Buck wouldnt be hyping him up.

[BlueRocky]

Grichuk’s success is definitely not an accident. Just wondering if he’ll stay consistent with it for an entire season.

 

He’s always been a power hitter that launches fastballs, but now he’s made some minute but significant changes:

- seeing the ball longer before his swing, giving himself a chance to identity breaking ball from fastball

- deliberately seeing more pitches per plate appearance (like Biggio)

- laying off breaking balls that dive off the zone

 

This has improved his walk rate, O-Swing, and SwStr%. He’s more selective at the plate and his K% will come down as a result. His WOBA against breaking pitches are also much higher now. These are all very positive changes for a power hitter, but it’s A LOT harder to do than it looks or else everyone would be doing it.

 

It all makes sense on paper, but can he continue it all season? We shall see.

[Grant77]

https://nowtoronto.com/culture/toronto-blue-jays-homeless-jays-shirt

 

There's nothing more vile than self deprecating humour from people who give millions of dollars to help fight homelessness. It's far better to do nothing and instead fake outrage at harmless fun. Shame on them.

[Olerud363]

Grichuk’s success is definitely not an accident. Just wondering if he’ll stay consistent with it for an entire season.

 

He’s always been a power hitter that launches fastballs, but now he’s made some minute but significant changes:

- seeing the ball longer before his swing, giving himself a chance to identity breaking ball from fastball

- deliberately seeing more pitches per plate appearance (like Biggio)

- laying off breaking balls that dive off the zone

 

This has improved his walk rate, O-Swing, and SwStr%. He’s more selective at the plate and his K% will come down as a result. His WOBA against breaking pitches are also much higher now. These are all very positive changes for a power hitter, but it’s A LOT harder to do than it looks or else everyone would be doing it.

 

It all makes sense on paper, but can he continue it all season? We shall see.

 

He's made some small improvements but they probably aren't statistically significant yet. Cavan Biggio swings at 15% out of zone, and about 60 in zone. Randall is still at 30 out of zone, from around 35 other years. As a side note Vladdy probably swings too much in and out of zone.

 

(goes to fangraphs takes a look at Trout and Juan Soto)

 

Trout, Soto and Biggio swing about 35% of the time. Vladdy and Grichuk still swing 50% of the time

[wilko]

https://nowtoronto.com/culture/toronto-blue-jays-homeless-jays-shirt

 

There's nothing more vile than self deprecating humour from people who give millions of dollars to help fight homelessness. It's far better to do nothing and instead fake outrage at harmless fun. Shame on them.

 

[TheDragon]

Grichuk’s success is definitely not an accident. Just wondering if he’ll stay consistent with it for an entire season.

 

He’s always been a power hitter that launches fastballs, but now he’s made some minute but significant changes:

- seeing the ball longer before his swing, giving himself a chance to identity breaking ball from fastball

- deliberately seeing more pitches per plate appearance (like Biggio)

- laying off breaking balls that dive off the zone

 

This has improved his walk rate, O-Swing, and SwStr%. He’s more selective at the plate and his K% will come down as a result. His WOBA against breaking pitches are also much higher now. These are all very positive changes for a power hitter, but it’s A LOT harder to do than it looks or else everyone would be doing it.

 

It all makes sense on paper, but can he continue it all season? We shall see.

 

He's not going to continue a .381 BABIP but the ~30% HR/FB might be sustainable if he made some significant improvements with his approach (~10% higher than his career avg).

[Laika]

It's not the $/WAR league but $1M + an option is starting to look like a nice little deal for Dolis.

He's not the easiest RP to watch because he does not throw a low of strikes but he is still managing to miss bats and limit damage. If he can increase the zone% a bit, he could be quite good.

[BlueRocky]

I'll just leave this here.

 

[BlueRocky]

[bones10]

I like Siddal, he seems fairly knowledgeable and he calls out Charlie on his dumb s***.

 

Way better than Zaun