War ?

[Maico450]

I observed that Ryu was the 1st Boras client signed by the Jays since Bill Caudill. Brought back distant memories. Back in 1984 the Jays were finally coming of age.

They had a plus young lineup, Bell, Barfield, Moseby, Mullinex, Fernandez, Garcia, Upshaw, Whitt and top rung SP staff, Stieb, Alexander, Leal, Clancy, and Gott. But their relief core was terrible. They had a bunch of middle relievers, but nobody who could come in and shut the door in the 9th.

So Gillick made the plunge into free agency and signed one of the supposedly top closers available. Bill Caudill had just come off a season with Oakland, and had 36 saves. Problem solved, right?

1985 season rolls out, and Caudill is a disaster. Total inconsistency in 9th. Save one game, lose one. Constant blown saves and losses. He gets reassigned as a middle reliever, and mop up guy. Comes in when game is NOT on the line.

Gillick had however made a better move early in the season claiming Tom Henke from Texas as free agent compensation. By mid season Henke was up with the team and immediately became one of the top closers ever.

So I look at Caudills and Henkes WAR for 1985. Caudill 1.0 war and Henke 1.1 war. How can that be? Two pitchers in MLB brought in to do the same job with same team, one an overwhelming success, and one an unmitigated disaster.

I know most of you were not around back then, Spanky was, but here is a perfect example of how misleading WAR can be, when looking into past performances.

[Spanky99]

This post is atrocious! Likely copy pasta'd, but atrocious.

 

Henke was 1.1 WAR

 

Bill Caudill was - 0.3

[Pendleton]

I observed that Ryu was the 1st Boras client signed by the Jays since Bill Caudill. Brought back distant memories. Back in 1984 the Jays were finally coming of age.

They had a plus young lineup, Bell, Barfield, Moseby, Mullinex, Fernandez, Garcia, Upshaw, Whitt and top rung SP staff, Stieb, Alexander, Leal, Clancy, and Gott. But their relief core was terrible. They had a bunch of middle relievers, but nobody who could come in and shut the door in the 9th.

So Gillick made the plunge into free agency and signed one of the supposedly top closers available. Bill Caudill had just come off a season with Oakland, and had 36 saves. Problem solved, right?

1985 season rolls out, and Caudill is a disaster. Total inconsistency in 9th. Save one game, lose one. Constant blown saves and losses. He gets reassigned as a middle reliever, and mop up guy. Comes in when game is NOT on the line.

Gillick had however made a better move early in the season claiming Tom Henke from Texas as free agent compensation. By mid season Henke was up with the team and immediately became one of the top closers ever.

So I look at Caudills and Henkes WAR for 1985. Caudill 1.0 war and Henke 1.1 war. How can that be? Two pitchers in MLB brought in to do the same job with same team, one an overwhelming success, and one an unmitigated disaster.

I know most of you were not around back then, Spanky was, but here is a perfect example of how misleading WAR can be, when looking into past performances.

 

What the f*** did you just f***ing say about me, you little bitch? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I've been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I'm the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the f*** out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my f***ing words. You think you can get away with saying that s*** to me over the Internet? Think again, f***er. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You're f***ing dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that's just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little s***. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little "clever" comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your f***ing tongue. But you couldn't, you didn't, and now you're paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will s*** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You're f***ing dead, kiddo.

[Spanky99]

Bwahahahaha...

[Maico450]

This post is atrocious! Likely copy pasta'd, but atrocious.

 

Henke was 1.1 WAR

 

Bill Caudill was - 0.3

 

-0.3 was Caudill 1986 WAR. Still way too high.

[Jimcanuck]

-0.3 was Caudill 1986 WAR. Still way too high.

 

So what you are saying is.... go with your sports gut?

[Spanky99]

-0.3 was Caudill 1986 WAR. Still way too high.

 

'85 meat...

 

'86

 

Henke 4.6

 

Caudill -0.5

[Maico450]

What I,m saying is that you cant just look at WAR as the tell all about performance. Sometimes it is misleading.

[Spanky99]

What I,m saying is that you cant just look at WAR as the tell all about performance. Sometimes it is misleading.

 

lol... so a year and a half of Henke provided 5.7 WAR... and Caudill provided -0.8 WAR, we should take that as misleading???

 

Is this real life???

[Spanky99]

You should delete your account, and start over... jesus even our eyeballs then told the story?

[Spanky99]

What I,m saying is that you cant just look at WAR as the tell all about performance. Sometimes it is misleading.

 

Delete this account, start over, fellas are doing it all the time.

[Maico450]

You should delete your account, and start over... jesus even our eyeballs then told the story?

 

Yeh, I know how much you have been a fan of Bill Caudills over the years.

[Spanky99]

Yeh, I know how much you have been a fan of Bill Caudills over the years.

I think he was the worst acquisition, bar none. You don't seem to be getting it?

 

Again; Is this real life???

[Maico450]

I think he was the worst acquisition, bar none. You don't seem to be getting it?

 

Again; Is this real life???

 

Hey, Before I wrote my post I knew I would catch some flak. But I stand by my post.

One of the first stats I look at when appraising a player is War. That's what jumped out at me, was how high Caudills War was.

I think that this particular situation, was an example that it is not perfect. It does not always show REAL LIFE.

It is however an extremely meaningful stat in the majority of cases.

[Laika]

You should research how baseball reference and fangraphs calculate WAR differently.

 

You should always look at both versions for pitchers and turn your brain on for five seconds during that process.

[Ryu In My House]

You should research how baseball reference and fangraphs calculate WAR differently.

 

You should always look at both versions for pitchers and turn your brain on for five seconds during that process.

 

Which is your preference? I only look at Fangraphs, typically. I like their interface more. Also, you're kind of being a dick.

[Laika]

Which is your preference? I only look at Fangraphs, typically. I like their interface more. Also, you're kind of being a dick.

 

fWAR is starting point and works for most pitchers in most contexts but it’s far from perfect. For example it would underrate RA Dickey by like 50%.

 

And I am kind of a dick

[TheHurl]

Bill Caudill was not a free agent

[Maico450]

Bill Caudill was not a free agent

 

Yeh your right. I forgot Gillick traded for him.

[wamco]

WAR is merely an approximation. Don’t treat it as gospel

[max silver]

WPA is the best stat to illustrate what a disaster Caudill was in 1985, he put up -1.69. Fluking your way into a low ERA/RA9 isn't necessarily indicative of a successful season as a reliever.

[The Iceman]

We traded for Caudill.

Gave up Dave Collins and fan fav Alfredo Griffin.

 

Had lost tons off his fastball in year one 1985 with the Jays but was a savy pitcher and produced a sub 3 ERA.

 

He legit looked like he was throwing a changeup every pitch in 1986. He was damaged goods.

Where the ball once used to jump out of his hand, he was now just lobbing in meat balls and was soon out of the league.

[Ryu In My House]

fWAR is starting point and works for most pitchers in most contexts but it’s far from perfect. For example it would underrate RA Dickey by like 50%.

 

And I am kind of a dick

 

I liked Dickey and I think he performed better than some fans give him credit for.

 

Self-awareness is always the toughest hurdle.

[Maico450]

I seemed to have forgotten this as well.....https://www.upi.com/Archives/1985/02/20/The-Toronto-Blue-Jays-today-signed-pitcher-Bill-Caudill/7942477723600/

[connorp]

 

And I am kind of a dick

 

Beta dick*

[EMK19]

We traded for Caudill.

Gave up Dave Collins and fan fav Alfredo Griffin.

 

Had lost tons off his fastball in year one 1985 with the Jays but was a savy pitcher and produced a sub 3 ERA.

 

He legit looked like he was throwing a changeup every pitch in 1986. He was damaged goods.

Where the ball once used to jump out of his hand, he was now just lobbing in meat balls and was soon out of the league.

 

Mr. ALL STAR Alfredo Griffin! (Speaking of Wins Above Replacements...)

[max silver]

I liked Dickey and I think he performed better than some fans give him credit for.

 

Self-awareness is always the toughest hurdle.

 

I don't think people would necessarily have an issue with the on-field performance given the economical contract he was signed for. But combine the general contempt caused by the original acquisition cost, and the fact that he was frustrating to actually watch pitch and you end up with a pitcher that was kind of hard to cheer for.

[Captain Adama]

What the f*** did you just f***ing say about me, you little bitch? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I've been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I'm the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the f*** out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my f***ing words. You think you can get away with saying that s*** to me over the Internet? Think again, f***er. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You're f***ing dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that's just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little s***. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little "clever" comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your f***ing tongue. But you couldn't, you didn't, and now you're paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will s*** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You're f***ing dead, kiddo.

 

I'll never not like this post.

[Dick_Pole]

[Ryu In My House]

I don't think people would necessarily have an issue with the on-field performance given the economical contract he was signed for. But combine the general contempt caused by the original acquisition cost, and the fact that he was frustrating to actually watch pitch and you end up with a pitcher that was kind of hard to cheer for.

 

I was soooo pumped when he was acquired. I invited a bunch of friends over to watch his first opening day start as a Blue Jay, it was a bad start. I don't recall the exact score, but he was shelled. That underscores his stay in TO. He was, at times, very effective. But it was frustrating as hell. Trading Thor away was the worst thing AA may have ever done.