Former Marlins President David Samson breaks down the 2012 Marlins trade

[TwistedLogic]

Massive insight unlike anything we've ever gotten before on this. Absolutely worth the watch.

 

Some key points:

 

- The Marlins were able to convince the Jays that this trade would guarantee them a playoff spot.

 

- The Jays actually gave them a choice of Syndergaard or Nicolino.

 

- Big part of the trade for the Marlins was getting Mathis, who they had been after for 10 years, and cutting Buck's salary, who they hated for some reason.

 

- Bud Selig held up the trade for so long not because he was worried about the Marlins having another fire sale but because he was concerned for the Jays taking on so much money

[Grant77]

I'm skeptical of a lot of these points. I think he exaggerates parts and simplifies a lot of the details. Surely a lot of it is true in a general sense, but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

[Laika]

Yeah....

 

Keep in mind the very nature of negotiations - the two parties will often exchange different versions of the truth. There is a lot of misdirection going on. The perception of one party’s side of things is not necessarily the truth or the full picture

[glory]

The Jays were going to dump Yunel for anything so that part is likely false but everything else seems realistic.

[Stangstag]

The part where he says he wanted Yunel is most likely a lie. This was right after the guy wrote a slur on his face and we had to trade him. He was probably a negative asset. Unless Samson just don't give a f*** which is possible.

 

Actually didn't they end up trading him right away or something.

 

Traded him to Tampa the same week IIRC

[Deadpool]

Also, I'm pretty sure that at no time ever was Handsome Jake the Jays' #3 prospect...

[Stangstag]

Also, I'm pretty sure that at no time ever was Handsome Jake the Jays' #3 prospect...

 

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/index.jsp?c_id=tor

 

He was listed 4th in 2011 by MLB.com rankings. Close enough, i’ll give Samson a pass if he misremembered.

 

Also something interesting to note is that Samson and Anthopoulos likely worked with each other in the Expos front office from 2000-2002

[bzapple]

Always amazes how much everyone seems to want Jeff Mathis. The guy must have superhuman intangibles.

 

Also interesting to note that Samson seems to imply that his FO purposefully leaked details of the trade before it was done in order to generate hype. Not surprising given how notoriously tight-lipped AA and his front offices tend to be.

[Jonn]

Makes me wonder how many times AA really tried to trade Syndergaard. He never had a chance to remain a Blue Jay. How depressing.

[glory]

Also interesting to note that Samson seems to imply that his FO purposefully leaked details of the trade before it was done in order to generate hype. Not surprising given how notoriously tight-lipped AA and his front offices tend to be.

 

I recall the deal being announced by Rosenthal and others and then talk of the league having to review it (with the possibility of them nixing it) before it became official, so that matches up with Samson's story as well.

 

Other than the Yunel part, which might have still been true (Jays were going to dump him anyway so if the Marlins asked for him, AA probably just said no problem), I believe every word of that story. Josh Johnson's career lasted 16 more starts after the trade, of course he failed his f***ing physical. He was the perceived jewel of the trade and he wasn't even healthy. Incredible. Papa Buehrle was the only good part of that trade.

[max silver]

It's totally insane that this deal went through as structured even though Johnson failed his physical. Like why even bother doing the f***ing physical in the first place if you are going to turn a blind eye to the results?

 

I had no real problem with this trade at the time with the information we had available back then, if it worked out the Jays would have vaulted into contention. But the idea that Thor was potentially included is infuriating.

[EMK19]

It's totally insane that this deal went through as structured even though Johnson failed his physical. Like why even bother doing the f***ing physical in the first place if you are going to turn a blind eye to the results?

 

I had no real problem with this trade at the time with the information we had available back then, if it worked out the Jays would have vaulted into contention. But the idea that Thor was potentially included is infuriating.

 

Wouldn't have been the first time...

 

 

But at least JJ made a few starts with us (actually, maybe we would have been better off if he didn't).

 

Real frustrating as he was the key man in that deal IMO.

[bzapple]

I recall the deal being announced by Rosenthal and others and then talk of the league having to review it (with the possibility of them nixing it) before it became official, so that matches up with Samson's story as well.

 

Other than the Yunel part, which might have still been true (Jays were going to dump him anyway so if the Marlins asked for him, AA probably just said no problem), I believe every word of that story. Josh Johnson's career lasted 16 more starts after the trade, of course he failed his f***ing physical. He was the perceived jewel of the trade and he wasn't even healthy. Incredible. Papa Buehrle was the only good part of that trade.

 

Johnson definitely ranks up there as one of the most disappointing acquisitions in team history.

[max silver]

Wouldn't have been the first time...

 

 

But at least JJ made a few starts with us (actually, maybe we would have been better off if he didn't).

 

Real frustrating as he was the key man in that deal IMO.

 

Who's this "handsome" fellow? If he didn't have the teeny beard on his chin it appears he would actually be missing having a chin, fascinating photo there.

[G-Snarls]

Makes me wonder how many times AA really tried to trade Syndergaard. He never had a chance to remain a Blue Jay. How depressing.

 

 

IIRC didn't he offer the Mets the choice of Syndrrgaard or Aaron Sanchez when he traded for RA Dickey?

 

How often do GMs offer a choice of players in trade? I'm sure it happens sometimes but he seemed to value all three of Nicolino Sanchez and Syndergaard pretty much the same or just wanted to put the weight of picking on other teams quite often that off season.

 

Like you say he may have been willing to trade any of them in any number of potential deals that off season.

[dineke]

IIRC didn't he offer the Mets the choice of Syndrrgaard or Aaron Sanchez when he traded for RA Dickey?

 

How often do GMs offer a choice of players in trade? I'm sure it happens sometimes but he seemed to value all three of Nicolino Sanchez and Syndergaard pretty much the same or just wanted to put the weight of picking on other teams quite often that off season.

 

Like you say he may have been willing to trade any of them in any number of potential deals that off season.

 

I'm pretty sure Sanchez was the crown jewel. Some people thought Syndergaard was going to be a reliever. He wasn't even the centerpeice in the dickey deal lmao

[G-Snarls]

I'm pretty sure Sanchez was the crown jewel. Some people thought Syndergaard was going to be a reliever. He wasn't even the centerpeice in the dickey deal lmao

 

It was close

 

I remember feeling equally worried about losing eirher

 

And yeah they're lucky they picked the right pitcher because d'Arnaud never became what they wanted

[Jonn]

I'm pretty sure Sanchez was the crown jewel. Some people thought Syndergaard was going to be a reliever. He wasn't even the centerpeice in the dickey deal lmao

 

I wonder what dictated that because in terms of minor league numbers Sanchez was arguably the worst of the 3. You remember hearing about the stuff but rarely seeing the results.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Yeah....

 

Keep in mind the very nature of negotiations - the two parties will often exchange different versions of the truth. There is a lot of misdirection going on. The perception of one party’s side of things is not necessarily the truth or the full picture

 

#captainobvious #boomer

[Spanky99]

Does any of this even f***ing matter?

[Stangstag]

Does any of this even f***ing matter?

 

Does the sport of baseball even f***ing matter?

[Laika]

#captainobvious #boomer

 

I’m 14

[Spanky99]

Does the sport of baseball even f***ing matter?

 

Hmmm....

[FrozenRopes]

Does the sport of baseball even f***ing matter?

Yes.

Does any of this even f***ing matter?

No.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Also, I'm pretty sure that at no time ever was Handsome Jake the Jays' #3 prospect...

 

BA had Marisnick at #3 in their 2012 Handbook.

[TheHurl]

In what was probably the 3rd best trade in Marlins history...there are still angry fans of this deal. Although i would be angry now hearing Nicolino over Thor

[TheHurl]

Most interesting points from both sides. AA's comment that there would be no deal without Bonifacio. The Marlins saying there would be no deal without Mathis. These are professional baseball front offices just 8 years ago.

 

The Marlins in turn traded Yunel for Deitrich, Disco for Latos, Hech for Braxton Lee, Marisnick (and others) for Jarrod Cosart and Nicolino was released. They just have a terrible front office and owner. Starting a trade talk by guaranteeing a world series is the most fantasy baseball thing I've ever heard (and something I said this offseason)

 

Further...BA's writeups for Thor and Nicolino at the time of the trade

 

Ranked Toronto Blue Jays #2 prospect after the 2012 season

The Blue Jays promoted area scout Steve Miller to crosschecker after he diligently followed Syndergaard in 2010. Syndergaard went from throwing 87-90 mph at the start of the spring to 92-94 mph just before the draft, and Miller persuaded Toronto to draft him 38th overall. Signed for a below-slot $600,000, he has posted a 2.35 ERA and averaged 10 strikeouts per nine innings as a pro. Syndergaard's big frame gives him an imposing presence on the mound, and his fastball only adds to it. His heater ranges from 92-98 mph with excellent downward angle and armside run. His curveball has gained velocity since he signed and now sits in the mid-70s with downward action. It's inconsistent and eventually may develop into a slider, but it gets outs and features good spin. He maintains his arm speed well on his changeup. He has good body control for his size, which leads to quality command and control. Syndergaard and fellow 2010 sandwich pick Aaron Sanchez have risen through the minors together and will team again in 2013 at high Class A Dunedin. Both have the ceiling of a frontline starter, with Syndergaard not quite matching Sanchez in stuff but outshining him in terms of polish.

 

 

Ranked Miami Marlins #6 prospect after the 2012 season

Armed with extra picks in 2010, the Blue Jays rolled the dice on Nicolino, considered a tough sign away from a Virginia commitment. Since signing for an above-slot $615,000 in the second round, he has dominated pro hitters. He ranked as the No.1 prospect in the short-season Northwest League in 2011, then led the low Class A Midwest League in ERA (2.46) and WHIP (1.07) as an encore. He came to the Marlins in the Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrle trade. Nicolino's polish is more impressive than his stuff, but he's not a soft-tosser. He spots a fastball that sits at 88-92 mph and touches 94 to both sides of the plate, and he's not afraid to come inside on hitters. His best pitch is a plus changeup that he sells with deceptive arm speed. He gets under his changeup at times but has the aptitude to make corrections quickly. Nicolino needs to stay on top of his curveball too, but it's a solid third pitch with good shape. Though there's some crossfire to his delivery, that doesn't prevent him from throwing all three pitches for strikes. Nicolino profiles as a mid-rotation starter with an ultimate ceiling of a No. 2. He'll advance to high Class A at age 21. His savvy could put him on the fast track after Toronto handled him cautiously early in his career.

 

That's right Marlins...always take the mid rotation lefty over the top of the rotation potential. And they have continued that trend throughout the decade.

[bzapple]

Nicolino is a good cautionary example of how mediocre stuff "pitchability" type prospects tend to peak in the low minors. He put up great numbers in low-A, striking out around a batter per inning, yet those numbers steadily declined as he faced more advanced competition, culminating in a career 3.84 K/9 in the majors. Seems like more and more front offices and prospect analysts focus on raw stuff and talent in the low minors, letting the refinement and "pitchability" come with experience. I doubt Nicolino would be ranked as high on prospect lists today as he was in 2012.

[Olerud363]

Most interesting points from both sides. AA's comment that there would be no deal without Bonifacio. The Marlins saying there would be no deal without Mathis. These are professional baseball front offices just 8 years ago

 

There was book published in 2013, Great Expectations, which portrayed Beeston as being heavily involved in this trade. Beeston was at his other board meetings (Loblaws meeting) and was taking calls from AA to discuss the trade.

 

Reyes was Beestons favourite player, and he liked Bonficio too, Beeston was ecstatic that he'd get two speedy lead off men, and create a track team.

 

I believe at the time, some of the more progressive members of the board, maybe yourself and a few others, pointed out that the defensive metrics, on Reyes and Bonfacio were not that great for middle infielders, and it dragged down their WAR a bit.

 

That combined with injury issues, meant that

 

Beeston Track Team analysis projected Reyes and Bonifacio to combine for 11 WAR.

Analytics which included defense and injury risk probably projected them for half that.

Reality projected them for 1/4 of that.