Jays acquire Chase Anderson

[Bobthe4th]

Our last actual ace was David Price in the second half of 2015. Stroman was merely a very good pitcher.

 

Yeah it seems like people forget just how good Price was for us, not just on the field but the perspective change from pretenders to contenders. It does feel like a long time ago now though!

[bendera3]

Our last actual ace was David Price in the second half of 2015. Stroman was merely a very good pitcher.

 

Looking back on that trade we made out like bandits. The only real prospect we gave up was Boyd, whom if I remember correctly, was the "worst" player we gave up as many thought he was an AAAA pitcher.

[Bobthe4th]

Looking back on that trade we made out like bandits. The only real prospect we gave up was Boyd, whom if I remember correctly, was the "worst" player we gave up as many thought he was an AAAA pitcher.

 

We included Daniel Norris too, but even so I 100% make that trade again - as a direct result the following few months were the best I've experienced as a Jays fan (I'm too young for the World Series years).

 

FWIW one of the very first things Shapiro did when he got here was criticise AA for that trade.

[Brownie19]

We included Daniel Norris too, but even so I 100% make that trade again - as a direct result the following few months were the best I've experienced as a Jays fan (I'm too young for the World Series years).

 

FWIW one of the very first things Shapiro did when he got here was criticise AA for that trade.

 

To be fair, Boyd's been the 38th best pitcher in baseball since 2017, ahead of David Price and other household names like Odorizzi, Darvish, Hamels, Keuchel + Bumgarner.

 

That said, I don't think anyone foresaw that at the time of the trade (most would have pegged Norris as the guy providing that kind of production).

 

The Price is viewed as a success based on the Jays results. If they got Price and JD blew out his hammy and the Jays missed the playoffs, the trade would have been viewed as a failure - as the team gave up a top prospect to get a rental on a .500 team that wasn't in playoff contention. Luckily for AA, they team took off as soon as Price stepped in the locker room and the rest is beautiful baseball history.

[wamco]

To be fair, Boyd's been the 38th best pitcher in baseball since 2017, ahead of David Price and other household names like Odorizzi, Darvish, Hamels, Keuchel + Bumgarner.

 

That said, I don't think anyone foresaw that at the time of the trade (most would have pegged Norris as the guy providing that kind of production).

 

The Price is viewed as a success based on the Jays results. If they got Price and JD blew out his hammy and the Jays missed the playoffs, the trade would have been viewed as a failure - as the team gave up a top prospect to get a rental on a .500 team that wasn't in playoff contention. Luckily for AA, they team took off as soon as Price stepped in the locker room and the rest is beautiful baseball history.

 

What time prospect? Not Boyd

[Orgfiller]

What time prospect? Not Boyd

 

Norris was the top prospect. Boyd was a high floor 4th/5th starter prospect more than anything, and he's hit that floor and more.

[keggy]

To be fair, Boyd's been the 38th best pitcher in baseball since 2017, ahead of David Price and other household names like Odorizzi, Darvish, Hamels, Keuchel + Bumgarner.

 

That said, I don't think anyone foresaw that at the time of the trade (most would have pegged Norris as the guy providing that kind of production).

 

The Price is viewed as a success based on the Jays results. If they got Price and JD blew out his hammy and the Jays missed the playoffs, the trade would have been viewed as a failure - as the team gave up a top prospect to get a rental on a .500 team that wasn't in playoff contention. Luckily for AA, they team took off as soon as Price stepped in the locker room and the rest is beautiful baseball history.

 

The Price trade was the correct move from the day it was made regardless of Boyd's performance 4 years later. This isn't like Gord Ash trading Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza on a mediocre team. The team was a legitimate championship contender and they gave up a blue chip prospect for a true ace.

[Brownie19]

What top prospect? Not Boyd

 

On January 21, 2015, Norris was named by MLB as the third-best LHP prospect in baseball. In 2015, MLB named Norris as the number 1 Blue Jays' prospect, the number 3 left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, and the 17th best prospect overall.

 

Also a reminder we dealt Hoffman (the Jays 2014 1st round pick and a top 50 prospect) in the Tulo deal just 2 days before they got Price.

 

We traded the 17th over prospect in baseball when the team was 1 game under .500 (fighting for a wild card spot) to add 11 starts (74 1/3 IP) from David Price. We also dealt a top 50 prospect in baseball to upgrade Reyes to Tulo (while taking on more money and term).

 

In a vacuum - those are horrible moves (they look even worse today when you look at current player valuations...it wasn't AS bad back in 2015).

 

But - it worked, the Jays went on a huge run, won the division and gave Jays fans the most excitement they've had in over 22 years. It's also aided by the face that both Norris and Hoffman never developed into a whole hell of a lot. There was probably a much higher probability those moves moves blew up in AA's face (maybe 30% success / 70% failure ratio???), but that's how baseball works.

[Brownie19]

The Price trade was the correct move from the day it was made regardless of Boyd's performance 4 years later. This isn't like Gord Ash trading Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza on a mediocre team. The team was a legitimate championship contender and they gave up a blue chip prospect for a true ace.

 

1 game under .500 - battling for a wild card spot at the time of the trade(s). Yes, our RF/RA ratio suggested we were better than our record, but I don't think anyone in their right mind would have claimed we were a 'legitimate championship contender'.

[glory]

The Price trade was the correct move from the day it was made regardless of Boyd's performance 4 years later. This isn't like Gord Ash trading Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza on a mediocre team. The team was a legitimate championship contender and they gave up a blue chip prospect for a true ace.

 

The Jays were a .500ish team with a great run differential and two months left to make up some 7 or 8 games in the standings. It was far from the finishing touches to a team looking like a championship contender. It was a last ditch effort by a GM with one foot out the door that worked out better than anyone could have dreamed of.

 

In hindsight, the Price deal was great. At the time, the Jays looked more likely to win a WC spot than the division, so there was definite risk involved.

[polar bear]

Stroman would be the 4th best starter in this market. I'd take him over Wheeler and Oddrizi any day

Me too.

[keggy]

1 game under .500 - battling for a wild card spot at the time of the trade(s). Yes, our RF/RA ratio suggested we were better than our record, but I don't think anyone in their right mind would have claimed we were a 'legitimate championship contender'.

 

The Jays were the best true talent team in baseball by a huge margin in 2015. They were underperforming their pythagorean record by like 10 wins and were still in line for the wildcard before the deadline.

 

Big trades always carry risk but adding an ace to that team is a pretty easy call to me--and most people in the industry agreed at the time.

[Brownie19]

The Jays were the best true talent team in baseball by a huge margin in 2015. They were underperforming their pythagorean record by like 10 wins and were still in line for the wildcard before the deadline.

 

Big trades always carry risk but adding an ace to that team is a pretty easy call to me--and most people in the industry agreed at the time.

 

What probability do you think there was that the Jays would miss the playoffs or end up in a 1 game, winner wild card game after making the Price trade? I'd say it was at least 70%. Giving up the 17th best prospect in baseball for 11 starts with those odds was not universally reviewed as a wise move. But it paid off.

[Key22]

I am really leary of giving Stras 5+ years with that arm, let alone 7. It sucks we have to overpay in term and total money to land the FAs but I guess that's the reality of the team being in Canada + taxes. But I think this team would need another 1-2 bats + 1-2 pieces in the pen to have a shot at the WC. Add in Rendon + some others and maybe.

 

Yes I have seen that they predict Cole to get 8 years $256 million - so Toronto would probably have to add another year and more AAV. Of course it's not happening - the Jays don't like more than 3 years on a pitcher let alone 8!

 

I am a bit old school in my view that making the playoffs is one thing but you really need a team built to win a short series when long term statistics go out the window. In a one game playoff you really need a shut down ace. If you make make the best of 5 - if you really want to assure yourself the best shot you need 2 top end starters to pitch 3 of the 5 games - and a pretty awesome relief core. A true strikeout closer and a set-up guy who would be a closer on more than half the teams in the league.

 

When the Jays were in the playoffs I knew they had no real chance to win a WS because they didn't have the pitching - If RA Dickey is starting and Price who was a mediocre playoff contender - it just wasn't shut down ace territory - We got a boost from Estrada and Sanchez who was lights out in the pen. But our one dimensional offense back then was going to get shut down by good pitching - and it did.

 

I just don't think you can draft and develop everything. Do we have true Ace pitchers in our system? Are they close? Nate Pearson perhaps - Manoah? Maybe we just wait until 2022. LOL I am impatient.

[glory]

Yes I have seen that they predict Cole to get 8 years $256 million - so Toronto would probably have to add another year and more AAV. Of course it's not happening - the Jays don't like more than 3 years on a pitcher let alone 8!

 

I am a bit old school in my view that making the playoffs is one thing but you really need a team built to win a short series when long term statistics go out the window. In a one game playoff you really need a shut down ace. If you make make the best of 5 - if you really want to assure yourself the best shot you need 2 top end starters to pitch 3 of the 5 games - and a pretty awesome relief core. A true strikeout closer and a set-up guy who would be a closer on more than half the teams in the league.

 

When the Jays were in the playoffs I knew they had no real chance to win a WS because they didn't have the pitching - If RA Dickey is starting and Price who was a mediocre playoff contender - it just wasn't shut down ace territory - We got a boost from Estrada and Sanchez who was lights out in the pen. But our one dimensional offense back then was going to get shut down by good pitching - and it did.

 

I just don't think you can draft and develop everything. Do we have true Ace pitchers in our system? Are they close? Nate Pearson perhaps - Manoah? Maybe we just wait until 2022. LOL I am impatient.

 

The 2016 Jays gave up 12 runs in 5 ALCS games. They lost the series 4-1 and were outscored 8-12. It wasn't the pitching that hurt them that year. In 2015 they just ran into the BABIP golden boys, unfortunately.

 

Having an ace is definitely going to help in trying to win a World Series, but the 2015-16 Jays could have won with what they had in the rotation. If anything, the one true ace they did have in those two playoff runs was the one we didn't want to see have the ball in his hands.

[Brownie19]

Yes I have seen that they predict Cole to get 8 years $256 million - so Toronto would probably have to add another year and more AAV. Of course it's not happening - the Jays don't like more than 3 years on a pitcher let alone 8!

 

I am a bit old school in my view that making the playoffs is one thing but you really need a team built to win a short series when long term statistics go out the window. In a one game playoff you really need a shut down ace. If you make make the best of 5 - if you really want to assure yourself the best shot you need 2 top end starters to pitch 3 of the 5 games - and a pretty awesome relief core. A true strikeout closer and a set-up guy who would be a closer on more than half the teams in the league.

 

When the Jays were in the playoffs I knew they had no real chance to win a WS because they didn't have the pitching - If RA Dickey is starting and Price who was a mediocre playoff contender - it just wasn't shut down ace territory - We got a boost from Estrada and Sanchez who was lights out in the pen. But our one dimensional offense back then was going to get shut down by good pitching - and it did.

 

I just don't think you can draft and develop everything. Do we have true Ace pitchers in our system? Are they close? Nate Pearson perhaps - Manoah? Maybe we just wait until 2022. LOL I am impatient.

 

You're fooling yourself if you think there's one particular blueprint to winning in baseball.

[wilko]

Bring on the dingers!

[Ray]

Don't most teams end up having to "overpay" to get free agents to come join them anyways? The Blue Jays aren't that much different in that regard. The Red Sox had to give David Price $30M more than the Cardinals to entice him to sign. The Cardinals gave Dexter Fowler that 5th year when we were standing pat at 4. It seems like more of a plain old bidding process as opposed to a subjective bias free agents hold against certain teams.

 

Cole/other high profile free agents would come to the Blue Jays if we were the highest bidder. Us "overpaying" to get them is no different than other teams tacking on an extra year or adding more money to get their guy.

[Bobthe4th]

Don't most teams end up having to "overpay" to get free agents to come join them anyways? The Blue Jays aren't that much different in that regard. The Red Sox had to give David Price $30M more than the Cardinals to entice him to sign. The Cardinals gave Dexter Fowler that 5th year when we were standing pat at 4. It seems like more of a plain old bidding process as opposed to a subjective bias free agents hold against certain teams.

 

Cole/other high profile free agents would come to the Blue Jays if we were the highest bidder. Us "overpaying" to get them is no different than other teams tacking on an extra year or adding more money to get their guy.

 

Yes free agents normally are overpaid, that's how the system works. But for anyone who is any good, we'd have to pay an additional premium on top of the normal free agent premium. We can't offer winning baseball right now, and we're not one of the top free agent destinations (New York / LA etc) anyway.

 

Can you see this front office paying a double premium for anyone?

[Ray]

Yes free agents normally are overpaid, that's how the system works. But for anyone who is any good, we'd have to pay an additional premium on top of the normal free agent premium. We can't offer winning baseball right now, and we're not one of the top free agent destinations (New York / LA etc) anyway.

 

Can you see this front office paying a double premium for anyone?

 

I'd legitimately like to know what proof there is of this 'double premium' beyond what some other teams have to pay anyways to acquire free agents.

 

It's less this "double premium", and more the fact that we're not willing to go that extra year when other teams are. If the roles were reversed and the Cardinals were standing pat at $64M and we offered Fowler $82M (which is the contract he got), we more than likely would've landed Fowler. This doesn't represent any extra premium to me.

[Bobthe4th]

I'd legitimately like to know what proof there is of this 'double premium' beyond what some other teams have to pay anyways to acquire free agents.

 

It's less this "double premium", and more the fact that we're not willing to go that extra year when other teams are. If the roles were reversed and the Cardinals were standing pat at $64M and we offered Fowler $82M (which is the contract he got), we more than likely would've landed Fowler. This doesn't represent any extra premium to me.

 

What the f*** are you talking about? If we offered $18m more than anyone else you wouldn’t consider that an extra premium? What??

 

It’s pretty simple, if we had something to offer other than money then if multiple teams make similar offers the player may decide to pick us. As we don’t, the player will not. I can’t see how you are not getting that.

[Bobthe4th]

It’s debatable whether this risk averse front office would want to ‘overpay’ for a top end free agent anyway. But when we’d have to blow away the competition with extra years/aav, it’s not going to happen.

[Ray]

What the f*** are you talking about? If we offered $18m more than anyone else you wouldn’t consider that an extra premium? What??

 

It’s pretty simple, if we had something to offer other than money then if multiple teams make similar offers the player may decide to pick us. As we don’t, the player will not. I can’t see how you are not getting that.

 

If Fowler was going to get that $18M anyway from a team that really wanted him, that's clearly not a "Blue Jay" tax.

 

It’s pretty simple, if we had something to offer other than money then if multiple teams make similar offers the player may decide to pick us. As we don’t, the player will not. I can’t see how you are not getting that

 

How many times is this actually the case? If multiple teams make similar offers, the agent will use that to drive the price up even more and the team that tacks on that extra year/extra dollars will win it. If the Blue Jays are that team to add more years/more dollars, that doesn't represent an "increased super duper I hate the Blue Jays premium" that no other team would've have to have paid. That's just the regular free agent process of having to overpay. You're making it sound like all players huddle around a fire at the outset of free agency and conspire to make sure the Jays pay more to acquire their services. This isn't a Blue Jays specific thing. The vast majority of teams have to blow away a top tier free agent to actually sign them. That's kinda how free agency is supposed to work.