Offseason Roster Thread 2019-2020

[Krylian]

I think they are less likely to sign a qualified FA with a higher pick. Their available draft money will be high with a #5 pick.

 

I think more likely this means we shop in the 2016 Happ and Estrada aisle of the market. Kyle Gibson types. I’d be pleasantly surprised if they go after someone like Wheeler but can’t see them signing a qualified FA just yet.

 

Without a doubt.

 

Then we'll come on here and have to read how shrewd these signings were. But the bottom line is, the Jays just aren't ready to compete in 2020 yet. It's still going to be a year for growth and development. There will be a few pieces added, but I don't think it'll be anyone that'll make your balls contract in ecstasy.

[Boxcar]

I think Shatkins are in for a rude awakening once they realize that players don’t want to sign with Toronto and that we have to overpay to get anyone to play here.

 

Yeah, coming from Cleveland, a dream destination for all players.

[The Cats Ass]

Which of the top starters can't be offered a qualifying offer?

 

Only one I can think of is Keuchel.

[Laika]

I think a player can only receive a QO once in their career now. So Ryu won't get one.

 

Reminder - teams don't lose first round picks anymore for signing a QO player. There are three categories of potential pick loss, based on luxury tax history and whether the signing team receives revenue sharing. If the Blue Jays sign a QO player they would lose their second rounder + $500,000 from their international kidnapping / human-trafficking fund.

 

Of course, it would still suck to lose a high 2nd round pick. Toronto has made some really nice picks recently in the late first, second, third rounds. Bo was 66th overall! Big Nate was almost a 2nd rounder!

[Barkerfan23]

I think a player can only receive a QO once in their career now. So Ryu won't get one.

 

Reminder - teams don't lose first round picks anymore for signing a QO player. There are three categories of potential pick loss, based on luxury tax history and whether the signing team receives revenue sharing. If the Blue Jays sign a QO player they would lose their second rounder + $500,000 from their international kidnapping / human-trafficking fund.

 

Of course, it would still suck to lose a high 2nd round pick. Toronto has made some really nice picks recently in the late first, second, third rounds. Bo was 66th overall! Big Nate was almost a 2nd rounder!

 

I think by spending, Atkins meant signing a lot of Jamie Garcia types.

 

People are going to be seriously dissapointed if they think a established starter is going to be signed to a multi year deal.

[Boxcar]

I think by spending, Atkins meant signing a lot of Jamie Garcia types.

 

People are going to be seriously dissapointed if they think a established starter is going to be signed to a multi year deal.

 

Well, there are a f***ton of established starters on the market, they have to go somewhere.

[L54]

There are so many SP available this offseason that it would be a massive fail on their part to not get at least one signed, and two need to be added somehow this offseason. I don't expect them to be in play for any of the big fish (Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler) but guys like Gibson, Wood, Bailey, Miley, Pineda, Odorizzi should be pursued heavily. The type of guys looking at 2-3 year deals at ~10-15M. Maybe some guys get left in the dust and you're able to get them on a one year deal.

 

I would be satisfied with an offseason that had an opening day rotation look something like this:

 

1. Gibson

2. Bailey

3. Shoemaker

4. Thornton

5. Opener

 

Kay, Pearson, Murphy all waiting in AAA with the potential to be 3's or better. It looks a lot more like the Brewers than the Nats but the risk is minimal and the upside is there if the young guys are able to make an impact.

[L54]

Extend Giles and go get someone else established at the back end. Fill the rest out with Daniel Hudson signings.

[Captain Adama]

There are so many SP available this offseason that it would be a massive fail on their part to not get at least one signed, and two need to be added somehow this offseason. I don't expect them to be in play for any of the big fish (Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler) but guys like Gibson, Wood, Bailey, Miley, Pineda, Odorizzi should be pursued heavily. The type of guys looking at 2-3 year deals at ~10-15M. Maybe some guys get left in the dust and you're able to get them on a one year deal.

 

I would be satisfied with an offseason that had an opening day rotation look something like this:

 

1. Gibson

2. Bailey

3. Shoemaker

4. Thornton

5. Opener

 

Kay, Pearson, Murphy all waiting in AAA with the potential to be 3's or better. It looks a lot more like the Brewers than the Nats but the risk is minimal and the upside is there if the young guys are able to make an impact.

 

That rotation is pretty gross.

[L54]

That rotation is pretty gross.

 

Your turn SirBlowJob

[Laika]

That rotation is pretty gross.

 

 

It's realistic, at least. And much less gross than 2019. And if you dislike Gibson and Bailey there are a dozen other players of similar quality or cost who you can sub in, at your preference. Homer had a surprisingly strong season though.

 

Also, the opener could easily be much more effective than one or two of the traditional starters above the opener slot in the Blue Jays SP hierarchy.

 

Yes, of course we'd all like a 1 and a 2 with more ultimate upside, like Zach Wheeler or Dallas Keuchel. Perhaps someone like Keuchel would come to Toronto on a reasonable deal. Maybe a grizzled veteran like Hamels or Rich Hill could be enticed to Toronto.

[L54]

I wonder if Odorizzi gets a QO.

 

Ya he probably will actually, especially with Gibson and Pineda being free agents as well. Good call

[L54]

Hamels and Hill are both great targets, I just expect at this point in their careers there will be lots of contending teams willing to match whatever anyone else is offering for a year or two.

[Brownie19]

Wouldn't we try and target pitchers who we could lock up for 3-5 years who are going to be core pieces when we enter our 'window'? Isn't the intent to perhaps add them a year early?

 

I mean sure - sign Hill or some of these veterans or bounce back candidates for 1 or 2 years with the intent of improving the team and giving yourself potential trade chips....but I also hope we seriously explore adding pitchers who are going to still be here when we enter our competitive window in 2021-2023.

 

For me that screams Zach Wheeler, but it could also include Cole/Stras (unlikely). I guess it could include Odorizzi or Gibson on a 3 year deal also.

 

Personally - I'd like to see one pitcher from each category. Wheeler and Wood or Porcello

[Abomination]

Also, the opener could easily be much more effective than one or two of the traditional starters above the opener slot in the Blue Jays SP hierarchy.

 

I actually like the idea of keeping one slot available for an opener / BP day. It would allow a free rotation spot when one of our young arms forces their way up, could be easily skipped when we have off days, etc.

[glory]

I wonder if Odorizzi gets a QO.

 

I hope not. I think he'd be a good fit on the Jays. Has been successful in the AL East as well. If he gets the QO, then no way the Jays are losing a pick to sign him.

 

If no QO is attached to either player, I say go with Odorizzi and Porcello. Two guys who have pitched in the AL East to success and are still young(ish). Porcello coming off a down year so he might get less, and Odorizzi coming off a really good year but track record is more along the lines of a 2.5 war pitcher. Looks like his velocity went up this year.

 

I think Kyle Gibson is way more likely though.

Edited October 2, 2019 by glory

[L54]

I think everyone would like to see Wheeler signed. He is the only one from the top tier that I can realistically see landing in Toronto. Of course, that is going to mean forfeiting pick #45 or whatever it ends up being. I would do it but I can't imagine the nerds upstairs would.

 

The focus shouldn't be on acquiring guys to fit "our window" because in theory the window doesn't close. What I want to see from the Jays this offseason is to put a competitive team on the field while assuming the least amount of risk possible. Kyle Gibson (or whichever pitching flavour you prefer) at 3/36 gives the team some stability now and then hopefully a good year or two while the team is competing from 2021 on. His contract won't be a hindrance.

 

I don't expect the Jays to ever go out and buy guys like Cole/Stras. I believe their plan is to develop them (Pearson, SWR) and supplement the rotation with mid level innings eaters. Vlad and Bo, and to a lesser extend Biggio, Jansen are going to get paid eventually. No need to tie up all the flexibility before you know what you have.

[Dick_Pole]

I hope not. I think he'd be a good fit on the Jays. Has been successful in the AL East as well. If he gets the QO, then no way the Jays are losing a pick to sign him.

 

If no QO is attached to either player, I say go with Odorizzi and Porcello. Two guys who have pitched in the AL East to success and are still young(ish). Porcello coming off a down year so he might get less, and Odorizzi coming off a really good year but track record is more along the lines of a 2.5 war pitcher. Looks like his velocity went up this year.

 

I think Kyle Gibson is way more likely though.

 

???

 

If your target is Odorizzi then you want the QO because the Jays with protected pick status are at an advantage of giving up a lesser pick than most other teams. Let's face it, he isn't signing with the Orioles or KC. Toronto has one of the best shots of the bottom 10 in the standings this year of turning it around and being good next year.

[Captain Adama]

Your turn SirBlowJob

 

Gibson

Odorizzi

Hill

Shoemaker

Thornton

 

Better, and realistic. The rotation is going to need more depth, if not quality.

[glory]

???

 

If your target is Odorizzi then you want the QO because the Jays with protected pick status are at an advantage of giving up a lesser pick than most other teams. Let's face it, he isn't signing with the Orioles or KC. Toronto has one of the best shots of the bottom 10 in the standings this year of turning it around and being good next year.

 

If the Jays are going to sign a qualified FA, then go for Wheeler (assuming Cole is out of the picture), not Odorizzi.

 

My point is I don't think the Jays are going to sign a qualified FA either way.

[wamco]

Doesn’t the pick only come into play if the player signs a 50m contract ? Or what am I thinking of?

[Barkerfan23]

 

Kay, Pearson, Murphy all waiting in AAA with the potential to be 3's or better. It looks a lot more like the Brewers than the Nats but the risk is minimal and the upside is there if the young guys are able to make an impact.

 

Lmao

 

Pearson is a starting pitching prospect yes, but Kay & Murphy are not potential no.3 or better

[Dick_Pole]

If the Jays are going to sign a qualified FA, then go for Wheeler (assuming Cole is out of the picture), not Odorizzi.

 

My point is I don't think the Jays are going to sign a qualified FA either way.

 

I remember the board had a big meltdown that one year where the Jays had protected pick status for a QO FA signing and AA didn't take advantage of it. Then he signed Martin the next year. If there was outrage back then there should be outrage now. The Jays have an advantage in that they can give up a lesser comp for qualified free agents than other teams that will be vying for mid-to-top tier FA. People are always talking about the Jays having to overpay to attract free agents to this demonic third world country. Well this is one mechanism where an overpay isn't really an overpay when considering the value of the pick along with the contract signed.

[Brownie19]

I think everyone would like to see Wheeler signed. He is the only one from the top tier that I can realistically see landing in Toronto. Of course, that is going to mean forfeiting pick #45 or whatever it ends up being. I would do it but I can't imagine the nerds upstairs would.

 

The focus shouldn't be on acquiring guys to fit "our window" because in theory the window doesn't close. What I want to see from the Jays this offseason is to put a competitive team on the field while assuming the least amount of risk possible. Kyle Gibson (or whichever pitching flavour you prefer) at 3/36 gives the team some stability now and then hopefully a good year or two while the team is competing from 2021 on. His contract won't be a hindrance.

 

I don't expect the Jays to ever go out and buy guys like Cole/Stras. I believe their plan is to develop them (Pearson, SWR) and supplement the rotation with mid level innings eaters. Vlad and Bo, and to a lesser extend Biggio, Jansen are going to get paid eventually. No need to tie up all the flexibility before you know what you have.

 

I think we're saying the same thing. Gibson at 3/36 fits into what I'm saying...someone who'll be with us in 2021/2022 helping us win in our competitive window (that yes - I hope doesn't close for a LONG time). I'm perhaps willing to take on a bit more risk with a guy like Wheeler (or Cole/Stras). Will it take 6 or 7 years to get Wheeler?

 

It's a different strategy than bringing in Rich Hill on a 1 year deal - where the objective is to deal him at the deadline for prospects.

[Barkerfan23]

There are going to be s*** ton of disappointed people here in the off season. Atkins comments are meaningless because he thinks Fisher is a 5 tool allstar, Brito is an excellent addition, and that he has a million starting pitchers in the minors.

 

Here are some reasonable names you can expect to see

 

Jhoulys Chacin

Jeremy Hellickson

Ross Detwiler

 

Basically the pieces that no one wants. He will collectively spend 40 Million on these pieces, and then two off them he will move at the deadline for more AAAA players.

 

This will be a 90 loss team for quite some time, until someone with direction takes the reigns.

[L54]

Gibson

Odorizzi

Hill

Shoemaker

Thornton

 

Better, and realistic. The rotation is going to need more depth, if not quality.

 

Derp

[L54]

Lmao

 

Pearson is a starting pitching prospect yes, but Kay & Murphy are not potential no.3 or better

 

Murphy could be but for Kay it is a stretch yes.

[Laika]

I remember the board had a big meltdown that one year where the Jays had protected pick status for a QO FA signing and AA didn't take advantage of it. Then he signed Martin the next year. If there was outrage back then there should be outrage now. The Jays have an advantage in that they can give up a lesser comp for qualified free agents than other teams that will be vying for mid-to-top tier FA. People are always talking about the Jays having to overpay to attract free agents to this demonic third world country. Well this is one mechanism where an overpay isn't really an overpay when considering the value of the pick along with the contract signed.

 

All first round picks are "protected" now.

[jaysblue]

There are so many SP available this offseason that it would be a massive fail on their part to not get at least one signed, and two need to be added somehow this offseason. I don't expect them to be in play for any of the big fish (Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner, Ryu, Wheeler) but guys like Gibson, Wood, Bailey, Miley, Pineda, Odorizzi should be pursued heavily. The type of guys looking at 2-3 year deals at ~10-15M. Maybe some guys get left in the dust and you're able to get them on a one year deal.

 

I would be satisfied with an offseason that had an opening day rotation look something like this:

 

1. Gibson

2. Bailey

3. Shoemaker

4. Thornton

5. Opener

 

Kay, Pearson, Murphy all waiting in AAA with the potential to be 3's or better. It looks a lot more like the Brewers than the Nats but the risk is minimal and the upside is there if the young guys are able to make an impact.

 

Bailey isn't getting a 2-3 year deal worth 15M AAV lol. He had a solid rebound this season, but c'mon. No team is giving him that type of cash and term.

 

Even Alex Wood. No team is giving him a multi-year deal, unless they throw in a club option.

 

Free agency has changed.

[Abomination]

I think everyone would like to see Wheeler signed. He is the only one from the top tier that I can realistically see landing in Toronto. Of course, that is going to mean forfeiting pick #45 or whatever it ends up being. I would do it but I can't imagine the nerds upstairs would.

 

The focus shouldn't be on acquiring guys to fit "our window" because in theory the window doesn't close. What I want to see from the Jays this offseason is to put a competitive team on the field while assuming the least amount of risk possible. Kyle Gibson (or whichever pitching flavour you prefer) at 3/36 gives the team some stability now and then hopefully a good year or two while the team is competing from 2021 on. His contract won't be a hindrance.

 

I don't expect the Jays to ever go out and buy guys like Cole/Stras. I believe their plan is to develop them (Pearson, SWR) and supplement the rotation with mid level innings eaters. Vlad and Bo, and to a lesser extend Biggio, Jansen are going to get paid eventually. No need to tie up all the flexibility before you know what you have.

 

I keep feeling like Wheeler is a landmine. Maybe he takes off like Scherzer did, but I can't help feeling that he'll continue to be a 4 xFIP kind of guy, and probably get 20-25M a year for it. Go big on Cole, or sign some mid-range guys who don't carry the term risk. Maybe Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda (who should come with a discount for the suspension), Roark, Ryu, Wacha. Then sign a wildcard guy like a Ross or Smyly.

 

I think my preference among those guys would be Pineda and Ryu, with Smyly added as a wildcard.

 

Ryu

Pineda/Gibson/Odorizzi

Thornton

Kay

Smyly (or an opener if he sucks too much)

 

Not a pretty rotation, but one that I think could outperform expectations without tying up a bunch of future money.