Aaron Sanchez and Biagini Traded to Astros for Derek Fisher

[z3r0s]

Since the no hitter, Sanchez has given up 7 walks, 5 home runs, and 10 earned runs in 12.2 innings.

 

Fangraphs in shambles.

 

Not just Fangraphs. MLBTR article about his IL stint included;

 

Sanchez, after falling out of favor with a Blue Jays organization for whom he was once an All-Star, has engineered an encouraging turnaround with his new club. While he’s made just four starts, his arrival to Houston has given way to important adjustments in his approach—almost certainly not a coincidence, given the Astros’ savvy in maximizing pitchers’ potential. While it’s far too early to draw conclusions about Sanchez’s reformation and viability, his acquisition has the early makings of one that could factor heavily into Houston’s postseason success.

[Boxcar]

this sounds a lot sexier than Fisher crushes a 91.7 mph 4 seam fastball right down the middle of the plate.

 

Looks like you've decided that you hate the trade and nothing will change your mind.

[Orgfiller]

Not just Fangraphs. MLBTR article about his IL stint included;

 

Did they just ignore everything after his contribution to the no-hitter? Lmao

[saskjayfan]

Looks like you've decided that you hate the trade and nothing will change your mind.

 

Fisher hit a mistake out. It doesn't matter who the pitcher is. Fisher has already lost 2 pop flies, which I can overlook, but he strikes out a lot. He takes a few more walks than average and has good pop and that's encouraging, but his 35% K rate is not that inspiring.

[Boxcar]

Fisher hit a mistake out. It doesn't matter who the pitcher is. Fisher has already lost 2 pop flies, which I can overlook, but he strikes out a lot. He takes a few more walks than average and has good pop and that's encouraging, but his 35% K rate is not that inspiring.

 

Ok, and Aaron Sanchez sucks s***, Biagini is easily replaceable and Stevenson has a 90% chance to bust.

 

Even if Fisher turns into nothing, it doesn't matter, at all.

[Maahfaace]

The real question is whether the Astros non-tender Sanchez in the offseason. I'm leaning towards a yes.

[keggy]

The real question is whether the Astros non-tender Sanchez in the offseason. I'm leaning towards a yes.

 

A reasonable floor for Sanchez is as a high end relief arm, which is worth what he'll garner in arbitration. I would be surprised if Houston gave up on him completely before trying him as a reliever.

[Pendleton]

Ok, and Aaron Sanchez sucks s***, Biagini is easily replaceable and Stevenson has a 90% chance to bust.

 

Even if Fisher turns into nothing, it doesn't matter, at all.

 

Seriously. Why would anyone complain about the trade return for a non tender candidate + spare parts? Obviously we weren't going to get some flawless prospect.

[Pendleton]

A reasonable floor for Sanchez is as a high end relief arm, which is worth what he'll garner in arbitration. I would be surprised if Houston gave up on him completely before trying him as a reliever.

 

Uh no, if anything that would be his ceiling. A reasonable floor for Sanchez would be continuing to be dogshit.

[EastCoaster]

The real question is whether the Astros non-tender Sanchez in the offseason. I'm leaning towards a yes.

 

You're f***in nuts Sanchez arbitration eligible he isn't going to cost all that much and with pitching right now at premium the Astros will invest in his potential.

[Ex Player]

Fusher needs to find a good steroid dealer

[BTS]

A reasonable floor for Sanchez is as a high end relief arm, which is worth what he'll garner in arbitration. I would be surprised if Houston gave up on him completely before trying him as a reliever.

 

We’ve seen his floor for three years now: one of the very worst pitchers in baseball. There’s a chance he becomes a good reliever, but that’s not likely.

[saskjayfan]

Ok, and Aaron Sanchez sucks s***, Biagini is easily replaceable and Stevenson has a 90% chance to bust.

 

Even if Fisher turns into nothing, it doesn't matter, at all.

 

i never said i was screaming mad. Shatkins seems to collect 4th outfielders like my aunt collected beanie babies in the 90s. I would have rather acquired pitching. This team needs pitching!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[LGBJ29]

i never said i was screaming mad. Shatkins seems to collect 4th outfielders like my aunt collected beanie babies in the 90s. I would have rather acquired pitching. This team needs pitching!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Acquiring a weaker prospect just solely because it is a pitching arm would be horrendous asset management

[Krylian]

We'll likely be getting a pitcher or two back for Sogard

[saskjayfan]

Acquiring a weaker prospect just solely because it is a pitching arm would be horrendous asset management

 

yeah, but acquiring a stronger prospect who also happens to be a pitcher would be great management. Why do you assume they would have got a worse pitching prospect. They targeted fisher. Atkins called him an every day centre fielder. People outside of the blue jays organization call him a 4th outfielder. i'm not saying he's not an MLB player. He just doesn't move the needle. We already have Drury and Mckinney.

[z3r0s]

We'll likely be getting a pitcher or two back for Sogard

 

oh yeah, we're probably getting pretty close to these names coming out. Will make for some interest, hopefully they're decent lottery tickets!

[keggy]

We’ve seen his floor for three years now: one of the very worst pitchers in baseball. There’s a chance he becomes a good reliever, but that’s not likely.

 

A struggling starter with a big arm with durability issues who struggles when the lineup turns over and has prior success in the bullpen isn't likely to be a good reliever? I can't think of a more historically classic style of pitcher to improve in the bullpen unless you turned Max Scherzer into a closer or something.

 

Sanchez hasn't had a relief appearance since 2015, so it's not like we have any data that he would be a bad reliever.

[BTS]

A struggling starter with a big arm with durability issues who struggles when the lineup turns over and has prior success in the bullpen isn't likely to be a good reliever? I can't think of a more historically classic style of pitcher to improve in the bullpen unless you turned Max Scherzer into a closer or something.

 

Sanchez hasn't had a relief appearance since 2015, so it's not like we have any data that he would be a bad reliever.

 

There are 178 pitchers with at least 200 IP over the last 3 seasons. Here's the full list of pitchers with a worse K-BB%:

 

Tyler Chatwood

Miguel Castro

Ty Blach

Andrew Cashner

Dylan Covey

 

It's hard to articulate just how bad a pitcher Aaron Sanchez has been for the last three years. He has no command. He doesn't generate any swinging strikes. He doesn't induce soft contact. He can't stay healthy.

 

He might not run an xFIP over 5 in relief, but becoming a high-end reliever would require sweeping changes across the board - he'd have to suddenly be able to find the strike zone consistently and at the same time hitters would have to start swinging and missing at his stuff. His floor is very much that he's never a contributing MLB pitcher, even in relief.

[G-Snarls]

The best times with Sanchez was when Gibby used him as an 8th inning setup guy

 

Otherwise meh

 

I'm ready to move on

[Krylian]

A struggling starter with a big arm with durability issues who struggles when the lineup turns over and has prior success in the bullpen isn't likely to be a good reliever? I can't think of a more historically classic style of pitcher to improve in the bullpen unless you turned Max Scherzer into a closer or something.

 

Sanchez hasn't had a relief appearance since 2015, so it's not like we have any data that he would be a bad reliever.

 

He was very good in 2015. But is he the same pitcher has was then? Can he dial it back up to 97-99 with the same sink? Is it guaranteed that his durability improves with a move to the pen? You'd think so...but we don't really know for sure. How do we factor in that 2015 was really his coming out party and no one had seen him before. The league now has 5 years worth of data on him. Is that a variable? He may very well be a quality reliever, but I think there would still be a few questions to answer.

[Laika]

A lot of his decline is attributable to velocity loss:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2014&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

The once special fastball is now a lot closer to average.

 

He used to be able to just throw a strike anywhere and get decent results because his FB was hard to hit. Not so much the case anymore, so he has to try to stay off the middle of the plate and he doesn't have the command to try to do that.

 

I'm surprised that Houston even wanted him.

[keggy]

There are 178 pitchers with at least 200 IP over the last 3 seasons. Here's the full list of pitchers with a worse K-BB%:

 

Tyler Chatwood

Miguel Castro

Ty Blach

Andrew Cashner

Dylan Covey

 

It's hard to articulate just how bad a pitcher Aaron Sanchez has been for the last three years. He has no command. He doesn't generate any swinging strikes. He doesn't induce soft contact. He can't stay healthy.

 

He might not run an xFIP over 5 in relief, but becoming a high-end reliever would require sweeping changes across the board - he'd have to suddenly be able to find the strike zone consistently and at the same time hitters would have to start swinging and missing at his stuff. His floor is very much that he's never a contributing MLB pitcher, even in relief.

 

Again, you're using starting data to translate to bullpen performance, which doesn't apply equally to all starters. Take some of the very best relievers in the league, like Dellin Betances, Liam Hendriks, and Brad Hand and predict their numbers as full-time starters. In fact we don't even have to make predictions since they were all bad starters which is how they became ace relievers in the first place.

 

Sanchez is a terrible SP and will most likely stay somewhere between terrible and bad. However, to the original premise, I would have an extremely difficult time non-tendering Sanchez based exclusively on his performance as a SP without even trying him out of the pen.

[Laika]

Again, you're using starting data to translate to bullpen performance, which doesn't apply equally to all starters. Take some of the very best relievers in the league, like Dellin Betances, Liam Hendriks, and Brad Hand and predict their numbers as full-time starters. In fact we don't even have to make predictions since they were all terrible starters which is why they became ace relievers in the first place.

 

Sanchez is a terrible SP and will stay somewhere between terrible and bad. However, to the original premise, I would have an extremely difficult time non-tendering Sanchez based exclusively on his performance as a SP without even trying him out of the pen.

 

Well now you've moved the goal posts.

 

I don't think it's fair to say that his reasonable floor is a high end reliever (your original statement).

 

I do think he could reasonably be a good reliever. But there is a difference there. His floor is definitely not a high end reliever.

[Orgfiller]

It should be noted that in his mystical relief innings, Sanchez had super mediocre K and BB rates for a reliever. 13.6% K-BB%, which would be 105th among qualified relievers, and he doesn't have the special 98 mph bowling ball sinker anymore to induce a shitload of groundballs like he used to. His fastball has been declining for a while as have his groundball rates.

[Orgfiller]

A lot of his decline is attributable to velocity loss:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=11490&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2014&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=SI&ymin=&ymax=

 

The once special fastball is now a lot closer to average.

 

He used to be able to just throw a strike anywhere and get decent results because his FB was hard to hit. Not so much the case anymore, so he has to try to stay off the middle of the plate and he doesn't have the command to try to do that.

 

I'm surprised that Houston even wanted him.

 

Ugh you beat me to the velocity thing.

[Laika]

Aaron Sanchez needs to go to Driveline and just f***ing air it out!

[Laika]

Ugh you beat me to the velocity thing.

 

Praise Gio Urshela

[keggy]

He was very good in 2015. But is he the same pitcher has was then? Can he dial it back up to 97-99 with the same sink? Is it guaranteed that his durability improves with a move to the pen? You'd think so...but we don't really know for sure. How do we factor in that 2015 was really his coming out party and no one had seen him before. The league now has 5 years worth of data on him. Is that a variable? He may very well be a quality reliever, but I think there would still be a few questions to answer.

 

Agreed on all counts that there is no guarantee that he'll be an ace reliever. I say give him 15-20 low-leverage appearances out of the pen and use that data to make an informed decision.

[keggy]

I don't think it's fair to say that his reasonable floor is a high end reliever (your original statement).

 

I do think he could reasonably be a good reliever. But there is a difference there. His floor is definitely not a high end reliever.

 

Fair enough. I tried to hedge by saying a reasonable floor is a high-end reliever. His absolute floor is garbage which is what he's been as a starter.

 

I honestly think a good reliever would be a 40-60%ile outcome for him and I don't think that's a controversial opinion.