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Old-Timey Member
Posted
Guys are acting like the MLB wants a 5 round draft. Sad fact is no industry is safe from this pandemic, everyone is trying to save money.

 

Manfred has wanted to reduce the draft and subsequently reduce the # of minor league affiliates for a while now. MLB may not have wanted a 5 round draft, but Manfred could have made it 10 or 20. He chose 5. This is a dangerous combination of Manfred reducing draft rounds to save money, and the MLBPA not caring about amateur talent enough to go to bat for them. No doubt in my mind that we will never see the old draft format ever again. I think 20 is likely the new norm.

Posted
Manfred has wanted to reduce the draft and subsequently reduce the # of minor league affiliates for a while now. MLB may not have wanted a 5 round draft, but Manfred could have made it 10 or 20. He chose 5. This is a dangerous combination of Manfred reducing draft rounds to save money, and the MLBPA not caring about amateur talent enough to go to bat for them. No doubt in my mind that we will never see the old draft format ever again. I think 20 is likely the new norm.

 

Didn't he propose 10 rounds first and the union said 'f*** you'?

Posted

The reduction in the number of rounds in the draft coupled with the proposal to eliminate two levels of the minor leagues some players are really going to slip through the cracks. The jump from complex rookie ball to single A is going to be a big one for some. I know the commish seems hell bent on saving cash, but really how much are you really by eliminating two short season rosters for each team?

 

Plus some 6th rounders or even further back have got signing bonus way over $20K

 

Could we see say one eight team co-op league to fill the gap?

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I'd prefer a 20 round draft with rounds 6 to 20 assigned the same 20k cap. The 5 round draft heavily favours teams with a bigger fanbase and destroys what the draft is meant to do, help bad teams get better.

 

That's not what the draft is meant to do

Posted
Guys are acting like the MLB wants a 5 round draft. Sad fact is no industry is safe from this pandemic, everyone is trying to save money.

 

I think I read going to 10 rounds would’ve cost $1m per team. Seems like they jumped at the chance to do something they were considering from before I imagine. I mean, obviously this became a more drastic version

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Didn't he propose 10 rounds first and the union said 'f*** you'?

 

I'm not sure of the details, but I believe Manfred could have had the draft be as many rounds as he wanted. The fact that he went with 5, when it has been reported that going with 10 would have been less than $1m per team in added expense, is telling what what Manfred and the owners mindset is. Of course, the MLBPA agreeing to having the draft being no less than 5 rounds in the first place is another issue, but Tony Clark tends to make Manfred look like Einstein by comparison, so I guess we shouldn't be too surprised. Clark would rather 32 year old free agents on the decline get paid and claim collusion when they don't rather than worry about amateur or minor league talent.

Posted
That's not what the draft is meant to do

 

Interesting take. Why do they order the teams from worst to best, with additional compensation for teams that lose players and have small markets?

 

Call me crazy, but that seems better for bad and poor teams.

Posted
Have they confirmed a date for the draft yet? All I know is that it's been moved from June to July, but I haven't noticed any specific details.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
Have they confirmed a date for the draft yet? All I know is that it's been moved from June to July, but I haven't noticed any specific details.

 

Posted
Someone shared Kiley’s mock top 6 with me.

 

Torkelson

Martin

Lacy

Hancock

Veen

Gonzales

 

How is no one talking about this lol?

 

To put it more bluntly: Kiley has us taking Zac Veen at #5.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
How is no one talking about this lol?

 

To put it more bluntly: Kiley has us taking Zac Veen at #5.

 

I'm stoked, but it's also just one man's opinion, likely based on his own BPA analysis, who I don't believe has inside sources.

 

Veen would be a wonderful get though.

Posted
How is no one talking about this lol?

 

To put it more bluntly: Kiley has us taking Zac Veen at #5.

 

I would take Gonzales over Veen

Posted
I'm stoked, but it's also just one man's opinion, likely based on his own BPA analysis, who I don't believe has inside sources.

 

Veen would be a wonderful get though.

 

"The Jays have lots of similarly valued options at this pick, but the strongest buzz is they were enamored with Veen during multiple early-spring looks while many of their execs and scouts were in Florida for spring training. Minnesota RHP Max Meyer is another leading option here."

 

FWIW, I have a team source who's said they're very high on Gonzales as well.

Posted
I'm stoked, but it's also just one man's opinion, likely based on his own BPA analysis, who I don't believe has inside sources.

 

Veen would be a wonderful get though.

 

lol... Kiley has all kinds of sources? And I agree, I'd be pretty stoked too.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
"The Jays have lots of similarly valued options at this pick, but the strongest buzz is they were enamored with Veen during multiple early-spring looks while many of their execs and scouts were in Florida for spring training. Minnesota RHP Max Meyer is another leading option here."

 

FWIW, I have a team source who's said they're very high on Gonzales as well.

 

Interesting. Thanks for posting that. Would be happy with Gonzales or Veen. Meyer is a high potential pick, but his size worries me about his potential to maintain that velocity without flaming out early in his career like Lincecolm.

 

lol... Kiley has all kinds of sources? And I agree, I'd be pretty stoked too.

 

Does he? I didn't know. I know he's a premier stat head in FG, but didn't think he had sources within teams themselves.

Posted
Does he? I didn't know. I know he's a premier stat head in FG, but didn't think he had sources within teams themselves.

 

 

He left fangraphs recently to go to ESPN+... so Kiley's worked for ESPN twice, Fangraphs twice, Braves, Yankees, O's and the Pirates.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

McDaniel's Full Mock.

 

First round

1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State

 

This is the chalk pick in the industry, as Tork has done everything he could do since the day he stepped on campus in Tempe, Arizona, but there's an interesting scenario where he doesn't go No. 1.

 

Torkelson and Vanderbilt second baseman Austin Martin are the consensus top two prospects in this draft and they're both represented by Scott Boras. I normally don't mention who is advising draftees before the draft because in the past it could affect a player's college eligibility, but the rules have since changed and it's very relevant in this specific instance. Texas A&M left-handed pitcher Asa Lacy is represented by a smaller outfit.

 

EDITOR'S PICKS

 

MLB draft rankings: The top 100-plus players available in 2020 and beyond

 

Kiley McDaniel's MLB farm system rankings for all 30 teams

 

2020 MLB draft: Mock drafts, rankings, order and more

The Tigers have made it known for a while that their top draft tendencies are for SEC performance and power arms. Only Lacy fits that type to a T. Some clubs think he's the second-best talent in the draft, or even a coin flip to be the top prospect. This is a scenario where the price and team tendencies become more important.

 

In this draft specifically, fewer high school players will sign and thus the team with the most money to spend on its second and third picks holds even more power than usual, with a larger pool of players to choose from, and another group that may be able to ratchet up their demands to get past the first round to where their highest bonus payday could be.

 

Key 2020 MLB draft details

Shortened to five rounds instead of 40

 

Expected to begin June 10

 

Teams can utilize draft money as they choose

 

Teams can sign unlimited number of undrafted players for $20,000

 

Draft pick signing deadline expected to be Aug. 1.

 

The Tigers' rebuild is going fine so far, but they need bulk impact talent, not just a few more players. If Detroit has Lacy evaluated close to Torkelson -- which isn't clear yet, but it's certainly possible -- there's a compelling case they could save some money for later picks, hold the hammer to choose from all but a few prep prospects and not take much, if any, downgrade in talent at 1-1.

 

This decision will be influenced heavily by Boras and how he positions Torkelson and Martin. The superagent's past suggests he won't give clubs a specific number but will be shooting for precedent-setting prices for what he believes are precedent-setting talents. That evaluation isn't a universal view in the industry. Torkelson is an excellent prospect, but industry trends are moving away from premium valuations on any first baseman who hasn't already proved it in the big leagues, due to the lack of margin for error in the profile. I've been specifically told that multiple clubs that rely on advanced models effectively move later first-round first-base types down a dozen picks or more from where their scouting reports would slot them just to account for this market/trade value consideration.

 

Torkelson projects as an above-average hitter with an above-average walk rate and 70-grade, 30-plus homer power. He can be passable in left field, maybe a hair below average defensively, and scouts see him turning into a Pete Alonso type of player, but with a little more athleticism and defensive value. Tork is also generally seen as better than last year's third overall pick and fellow destroyer of the Pac-12, White Sox 1B Andrew Vaughn, a former Cal Bear. Torkelson would fit in the late teens to 20s in my top 100 prospects. I'm hearing all four of my projected top four picks are still in the mix for Detroit.

 

2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 2B, Vanderbilt

 

Orioles GM Mike Elias comes from Houston, the most progressive team in baseball, and he relies on modeling that tends to value position flexibility and a high floor. These both fit Martin perfectly as a player. He's an above-average runner who likely fits best at second base, but some teams see a chance for a future at center field or third base. He's the best hitter in the draft that may also have the best plate discipline, and he has dominated the SEC. His power plays around average, and some scouts think he's a solid candidate for a Justin Turner-like swing adjustment to unlock more in-game power.

 

New Mexico State 2B Nick Gonzales is heavily rumored to be the backup option here if the prices on Martin and Torkelson are thought to be too high.

 

 

Vanderbilt's Austin Martin is one of the top prospects available in the 2020 draft class. Steven Branscombe/USA Today Sports

3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M

 

The thought here is that Miami just takes whichever of the top three prospects gets to this pick, but there's also some buzz that if the wrong one is here, the Marlins could take a college player projected a half dozen or so picks later for some savings for their later picks. Lacy has big stuff with a mid-90s heater and a slider that are both at least 65-grade pitches, as well as a changeup that has flashed 55-to-60-grade quality at times. The issue is his command, as a result of his somewhat awkward finish to his delivery. Scouts who have followed Lacy since high school swear on his makeup and his performance on the biggest stages, where his command has been at its best.

 

4. Kansas City Royals: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

 

The Royals are in the tough spot of picking fourth in what is generally seen as a three-player draft. Given their traditional scouting, high-upside-seeking reputation, Kansas City has somewhat quietly taken almost only college players early in the past two drafts. Hancock had a slow start to this season, but some thought he'd work his way into that top tier with a strong spring.

 

5. Toronto Blue Jays: Zac Veen, RF, Spruce Creek HS (FL), Florida commit

 

The Jays have lots of similarly valued options at this pick, but the strongest buzz is they were enamored with Veen during their multiple early-spring looks while many of their scouts and execs were in Florida for spring training. Minnesota RHP Max Meyer is another leading option here.

 

6. Seattle Mariners: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State

 

The Mariners are leaning toward a college player pretty heavily here as they're about to turn the corner in their rebuild with their top prospects -- OF Julio Rodriguez, OF Jarred Kelenic and RHP Logan Gilbert -- nearing the big leagues. Gonzales fits their preferences and rumored interest well here, and Meyer again would be a backup option if Gonzales is already gone. Hancock also fits here if he slides a bit.

 

7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Heston Kjerstad, RF, Arkansas

 

Pittsburgh has a new regime in place with GM Ben Cherington and assistant GM Steve Sanders coming from Toronto. They didn't have clear preferences or types for the Blue Jays, but the heavy buzz here is "college" and "hitter." Kjerstad and NC State catcher Patrick Bailey make the most sense given what's available in this scenario. Local prep product Austin Hendrick is surely intriguing, but he might not fit the plan.

 

8. San Diego Padres: Austin Hendrick, RF, West Allegheny HS (PA), Mississippi State commit

 

The three top prep outfielders (Veen, Hendrick, Robert Hassell) are jumbled a bit, with each club having different preferences but having them all very close. This is the first spot where Hassell has been connected, but Hendrick's electric bat speed and plus raw power fit the Padres' tendencies a little better. San Diego has a track record of saving money on early picks to spend later on upside prep prospects, and I have them doing that again in this projection, nabbing Tommy John-rehabbing prep LHP Dax Fulton with their second pick; he was projected for the middle of the first round before the surgery.

 

9. Colorado Rockies: Robert Hassell, CF, Independence HS (TN), Vanderbilt commit

 

Colorado is also tied to Hassell, and he'll likely go in the next few picks if he doesn't go here. It's worth noting that Colorado picks only pitchers who throw sinkers, for obvious reasons, so that narrows their focus a bit on potential targets.

 

10. Los Angeles Angels: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

 

'Opening Day' Power Rankings

 

Sure, the baseball season is in limbo, but that doesn't mean we can't have Power Rankings. How does your team stack up? Power Rankings

 

The Angels have been chasing upside with most of their recent top picks, and they've been tied to Cavalli, who is right with Lacy for the best raw stuff in the draft. Cavalli is a 6-foot-4 athlete who is also a solid first baseman, he has a clean delivery and two pitches that grade anywhere from 60 to 70 in his mid-90s heater and power curveball. Similar to former Angels first-rounder Sean Newcomb, Cavalli checks all the boxes but doesn't quite have the command you'd expect given the raw ingredients.

 

11. Chicago White Sox: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville

 

The White Sox are another team leaning heavily toward college options at this pick, though they've leaned that way in recent years for higher picks as well. Kjerstad fits here if he makes it down to this pick. It makes a lot of sense for the White Sox to add the Illinois prep product, who could be big league ready right as the team gets to playoff contention.

 

12. Cincinnati Reds: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

 

The Reds have leaned toward high ceilings in recent years and are rumored to want one of the top prep outfielders at this pick, but none of them make it in this scenario. Meyer has shades of Walker Buehler to his game, but he is slight enough that he could be a power relief type.

 

13. San Francisco Giants: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX), Texas commit

 

The prep pitcher group is tightly packed this year, with Kelley, Mick Abel, Nick Bistko and Justin Lange all in the same range of talent for clubs, but Kelley and Abel had a full summer of looks and Kelley pitched a good bit this spring. He was the top prep arm coming out of the summer and has held serve. Both Kelley and Abel should come off the board in the next 10 or so picks, but it's tough right now to peg which clubs are willing to take a prep righty in general, much less in this draft.

 

14. Texas Rangers: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee

 

This is the first spot where rising Ohio State catcher Dillon Dingler could fit, and this is also about the range where buzz begins that teams will take only below-slot options because the separation of talent is a bit muddled. Crochet had a shot to get into the top 10 with a strong spring, but he threw in only one unannounced appearance, where he hit 99 mph in relief with a handful of scouts watching, after starting the season on the shelf with a shoulder/back issue.

 

15. Philadelphia Phillies: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State

 

Bailey is the consensus top catcher in the draft and likely doesn't get out of the top 20. Philly has leaned college in early picks under this front-office regime and has a new scouting director this year in Brian Barber, who came over from the Yankees. There's some symmetry to taking J.T. Realmuto's potential long-term replacement as his potential final season with the club (hopefully) begins soon after the draft.

 

16. Chicago Cubs: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn

 

Burns has the best fastball command in the draft and, along with Detmers, might move the quickest through the low minors. The Cubs need MLB-ready young pitching depth, so Burns fits a need and is a solid value choice with a long national scouting track record dating to his high school underclassman days.

 

17. Boston Red Sox: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR), Oregon State commit

 

The Red Sox are in a down cycle of young talent that has resulted in them being my 27th-ranked farm system. New GM Chaim Bloom is aiming to correct this, and prep pitching is the demographic with the biggest risk/reward.

 

18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit

 

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 MLB prospects

 

Spoiler alert: Wander Franco leads our list. Which MLB stars of tomorrow follow the best prospect since Mike Trout in this year's rankings? Kiley McDaniel (ESPN+)

 

The D-backs have been linked to both PCA and Hassell, but Hassell is unlikely to get to this pick. Under the Mike Hazen regime, Arizona has leaned toward contact/speed-type hitters (Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Matt McLain, PCA/Hassell) and pitchers with higher arm slots and/or spin rates (Blake Walston, Brennan Malone, Tommy Henry).

 

Crow-Armstrong won't get to the D-backs' next pick (33rd overall), but prep RHP Nick Bitsko probably will and fits their type as well. Bitsko reclassified to the 2020 class in January, and his spring never got started, so clubs have only a handful of innings from two events in the summer (when he wasn't a priority to scout) and one heavily attended preseason bullpen session in the spring. Multiple clubs have told me they really like Bitsko in the first round but don't have enough information to pull the trigger. The few clubs that do feel good about doing it can afford to wait and try to float him to their second pick for a bonus roughly that of this 18th overall pick.

 

19. New York Mets: Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami

 

Cecconi picked the right time to regain the form of his 2017 summer showcase highs, pitching well for a heavily scouted Miami club this spring. He's set to go in the second half of the first round, and the Mets are trying to stay competitive with Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia, so quicker-arriving talent is preferred.

 

20. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA

 

Opinions vary wildly on Mitchell, with some clubs thinking he's a top-10 talent and others saying they wouldn't take him in the first round due both to his on-field performance and demeanor. The Brewers are more in that first camp, and Mitchell probably finds a home in this area of the draft.

 

21. St. Louis Cardinals: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (IL), Oklahoma commit

 

Howard is sliding a bit, as clubs are worried about a shoulder issue and how it may affect his throwing and thus his ultimate position. He had momentum in the 10-15 range coming out of the previous summer and has some similarities with last year's second overall pick, Bobby Witt Jr., so like Mitchell he shouldn't fall much further than this.

 

22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia

 

Wilcox is an eligible sophomore who hasn't improved that much at Georgia but at various times has hit 100 mph, shown a plus changeup, an above-average slider and the command to be a starter. He generally doesn't do more than two of those in the same outing right now, but those traits are enough to get him into the back half of the first round.

 

23. Cleveland Indians: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State

 

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Dingler got into the first two rounds with a strong fall after not playing last summer and, depending on when scouts saw him this spring, has looked like a high first-round pick and the best catcher in the draft. He'll go in the top 30 picks and fares well in most models (the Indians lean on theirs in evaluations) given the positional value.

 

24. Tampa Bay Rays: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA), UCLA commit

 

Some clubs have Soderstrom's offensive ability evaluated with the three top prep outfielders, who all went in the top 10 in this projection. He's a fine catcher who has improved behind the plate, but most objections about his defense aren't taking into account a likely automatic strike-calling future by the time he gets to the big leagues. He's also athletic enough to play any corner position. Soderstrom may be the best example of a player that I'll have ranked higher than where he goes in the draft, because the risky prep catcher demographic doesn't apply to him as much as it may appear.

 

25. Atlanta Braves: Justin Lange, RHP, Llano HS (TX), Dallas Baptist commit

 

Luckily for Lange, after popping up in the fall and going to the top of the priority list for scouts, his season started early enough to get in enough outings that clubs got him cross-checked and saw him go from sitting in the low-90s with his fastball velocity in the fall to hitting 100 mph regularly this spring and 101 mph in a recent bullpen. His raw ability is as good as Abel's, but the scouting track record is very limited, so picking him is a bit of a leap of faith.

 

26. Oakland Athletics: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor

 

Oakland has been tied to Loftin, another rising prospect who at first isn't overwhelming in terms of tools, but a shortstop with contact, defense and instincts doesn't have to have loud tools to be an every-day player.

 

27. Minnesota Twins: Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State

 

The Twins are run by former Indians execs and lean on a similar model. Westburg grades out well with big exit velocities and solid defensive projections, but he has more of a power-over-hit approach that may be able to be ironed out by a top-notch player development group, which Minnesota has. He and Loftin are opposites on the spectrum of college shortstops.

 

28. New York Yankees: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville

 

Miller was also one of the players who made the biggest gains on draft boards this spring, showing velocity sitting in the 94-98 mph range and hitting 99, mixing in an above-average slider and throwing strikes, though his longer arm action and the quality of those strikes cause some to project him in the bullpen. He and Dingler have both been tied to the Yankees.

 

29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

 

All things being equal, draft studies and clubs' desires lean toward picking college position players, the safest of the demographics. That's even more true this year for reasons mentioned earlier. The group of likely every-day college bats with some data/track record are starting to run out at this point, with Foscue and Arizona C/1B/LF Austin Wells among the best of the last few for the Dodgers to choose from here.

 

Competitive balance round A

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30. Baltimore Orioles: Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest

31. Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke

32. Kansas City Royals: Austin Wells, C, Arizona

33. Arizona Diamondbacks: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (PA), Virginia commit

34. San Diego Padres: Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (OK), Oklahoma commit

35. Colorado Rockies: Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State

36. Cleveland Indians: Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA), Duke commit

37. Tampa Bay Rays: Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami

Posted

So someone on here has direct access to ESPN+ content! That's good news as we approach the draft.

 

McDaniel's Full Mock.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
So someone on here has direct access to ESPN+ content! That's good news as we approach the draft.

 

I had to do some loops to get access in Canada but worth it as I am really enamored with this draft. I'll post his top 50 after I clock out.

Posted
I had to do some loops to get access in Canada but worth it as I am really enamored with this draft. I'll post his top 50 after I clock out.

 

Awesome. Can you post his Top 100 prospects?

Old-Timey Member
Posted

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/28995830/mlb-draft-rankings-top-100-plus-players-available-2020-beyond

 

2020 Rankings

1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State, 55 FV: "Tork" is the safest pick in the draft because he raked from the moment he stepped on campus and in two summers for Team USA with a wood bat. He has edged ahead of Austin Martin in the eyes of the scouts I've spoken with in the past few weeks, but it's close. Torkelson fits best at first base, but he still mashes plenty for any position; he could be an above-average hitter with an above-average walk rate and 30 homers.

 

2. Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt, 55 FV: There was buzz Martin might begin the season at shortstop for Vanderbilt, but he's still playing mostly third base. He's also well-equipped to be average or above defensively in center field (he's a plus runner) or at second base. Martin's calling card is his plus (or better) contact skills and plate discipline, which help him get to all of his average raw power in games, for 15-20 homers most years. The production is somewhere in the range of Ben Zobrist or Justin Turner, which could be better to some clubs than Tork's production comps of Matt Olson, Rhys Hoskins or Paul Goldschmidt.

 

3. Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State, 55 FV: Gonzales plays in one of the most supercharged offensive environments in college baseball, but he also raked on the Cape this summer with wood bats against superior competition. He posted absurd numbers (.488/.610/1.155, 12 homers in 16 games) and has comparable offensive talent to Martin, but with fringy speed and defense at second base that could eventually move him to left field; Keston Hiura is the most common comp thrown out here.

 

4. Zac Veen, CF, Spruce Creek HS (FL), Florida commit, 50 FV: Veen is a lanky, smooth, 6-foot-4, above-average runner who fits in center field for now and has a chance to be a plus hitter with plus plate discipline and plus power. Christian Yelich looked something like this in high school, too, but Veen is more likely to fill out and move to a corner.

 

5. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M, 50 FV: Lacy has edged ahead of Hancock now, but his delivery is a bit stiff and his control and command are just fine. The reason he's the top-rated pitcher is his mid-90s heater and upper-80s slider that are 70-grade pitches on the 20-80 scale for some scouts. His curveball is a solidly above-average pitch, while his changeup is a 55 or 60-grade pitch at its best; being precise with location isn't required when your stuff is that lively.

 

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6. Emerson Hancock, R HP, Georgia, 50 FV: He was on a trajectory to be the best college pitcher in years with a strong spring after a 2019 that ended early due to injury. His stamina wasn't built up for early starts when he didn't meet expectations, but he's still a pure starter who works 93-96 mph fastball velocity to go with a changeup that's sometimes a 70-grade pitch and a 55-grade breaker.

 

7. Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX), Texas commit, 45+ FV: Prep arm who throws up to 100 mph but is surprisingly under control given that arm speed, and he has a plus changeup that's ahead of his above-average breaking ball.

 

8. Austin Hendrick, RF, West Allegheny HS (PA), Mississippi State commit, 45 FV: Old for the class (he would be a 2022 draft-eligible sophomore in Starkville), but has been a standout for multiple summers, has 70-grade bat speed and plus raw power. That summer track record could help with a spring season that never got started.

 

9. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA), UCLA commit, 45 FV: He has slowly built momentum from a solid summer to be in the top tier of prep bats; he probably sticks behind the plate, but his plus arm and athleticism will fit at a number of positions. The calling card here is his plus raw power and picturesque swing, while his more model-friendly age gives him an edge over Austin Hendrick.

 

10. Robert Hassell, CF, Independence HS (TN), Vanderbilt commit, 45 FV: Arguably the best hit tool in the prep class, coming from a lanky, plus-running, plus-throwing center fielder who could grow into power; he reminds some of Braves prospect Drew Waters.

 

11. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota, 45 FV: The righty exploded this spring after a strong summer with Team USA, with some scouts comparing him to Walker Buehler. Meyer hit 100 mph this spring and some scouts grade his spiked slider as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale, but he's a slightly built 6-footer.

 

12. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville, 45 FV: A pitchability lefty who has above-average stuff and feel, working in the low-90s along with a plus curveball and above-average changeup.

 

13. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma, 45 FV: One scout described his delivery as "clean as a whistle," and he's an athletic, durable 6-foot-4 righty who works with a 94-98 mph fastball he complements with a 65-grade curveball and starter traits. But the command isn't as good as the delivery and athleticism indicate, akin to Sean Newcomb.

 

14. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee, 45 FV: He pitches with a lower slot akin to Madison Bumgarner and missed the beginning of the spring with a shoulder muscle issue, but he came back just before things shut down, hitting 99 mph and mixing in a plus breaker.

 

15. Heston Kjerstad, RF, Arkansas, 45 FV: Kjerstad has performed well for his entire career at Arkansas and had a strong summer for Team USA. He has plus raw power, average-to-above contact skills and fits in right field.

 

16. Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami, 45 FV: The eligible sophomore had a loud summer (94-97, plus slider in shorter stints) before his prep senior year, which was marred by injury. He had one second-round type outing this spring, but has regained his top form, with a number of mid-first-round type outings as well on a highly scouted Hurricanes squad.

 

17. Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (PA), Virginia commit, 45 FV: The 6-foot-4 righty was the top 2021 prep arm until he reclassified to the 2020 class in January. He didn't get to pitch this spring in a game for scouts, but he did pitch at a highly scouted event last summer where he was throwing in the mid-90s and mixed in a plus curveball with spin rates and characteristics that progressive teams love.

 

18. Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA, 45 FV: A famous high school player who turned down money to go to UCLA, he showed flashes his first two years, was off to a good start last summer for Team USA, then had a stress fracture in his shin. He was off to another strong start this spring, with pitch selection the main thing keeping his big tools (above-average raw power, plus speed) from playing in games consistently.

 

19. Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR), Oregon State commit, 45 FV: This early-emerging prep arm was throwing into the mid-90s years ago and was great early in the summer, just OK later and didn't get to come out yet this spring.

 

20. Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State, 45 FV: The best consensus catcher in the class has above average power, defense and arm strength, but fringy contact skills in an effort to get to his power in games.

 

21. Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (IL), Oklahoma commit, 45 FV: He had a strong summer with above-average tools and athleticism to get into first-round consideration, didn't get much of a chance to build on that this spring.

 

22. Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State, 45 FV: He popped up in the fall as a big, athletic backstop who has plus raw power and arm strength from an above-average defensive catcher. His contact came and went in the spring, but scouts who got a good look were raving and some clubs are in even higher than this.

 

23. Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn, 45 FV: Famous in high school, he turned down money to go to Auburn, and has performed well in college. He has above-average stuff and some of the best fastball command in the class.

 

24. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit, 45 FV: A famous prep hitter who can really hit, run and play center field. The power and overall impact are what's in question; some teams think he should go in the top 20 picks, and others aren't on him in the first round.

 

25. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina, 45 FV: He missed almost all of 2019 with a foot injury, then exploded on the scene on the Cape last summer, with fastball velocity sitting in the mid-90s to go with two plus breaking balls.

 

26. Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State, 45 FV: A big shortstop who has power to profile easily in an everyday role, but contact ability and pitch selection are his question marks.

 

27. Dylan Crews, RF, Lake Mary HS (FL), LSU commit, 45 FV: Earmarked for the first round years ago as a prep hitter, Crews has bulked up and looks like Tyler O'Neill or Brett Lawrie now. There were rumors for a while that he wants top half of the first round money to turn pro.

 

28. C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State, 45 FV: "Talented righty" is how you draw it up -- he flashes three plus pitches in some outings -- but the consistency hasn't been there.

 

29. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia, 45 FV: A first-round talent in the 2018 prep class who hasn't progressed much in college; he's still throwing up to 100 mph to go with an above-average slider and changeup. As an eligible sophomore, it's believed he'd only sign for bonus consistent with the top half of the first round.

 

30. Justin Lange, RHP, Llano HS (TX), Dallas Baptist commit, 45 FV: The biggest popup prep arm in the country hit 100 mph this spring, but he would also show more of a pitchability look when throwing in the low-90s to go with above-average secondary pitches.

 

What's ahead

 

What the deal between MLB and the players' union means for the 2020 season and beyond Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel

 

31. J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State, 45 FV: The former Dodgers first-rounder had Tommy John surgery this spring after his stuff declined late in 2019. At his best, his fastball sits in the mid-90s with high spin, to which he adds a plus breaking ball and plus athleticism, though his delivery concerns some teams.

 

32. Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami, 40+ FV: He had a knee injury in 2018 and a shoulder injury in 2019, but he came out late in spring 2019 and in the summer for Team USA showing above-average stuff and starter traits.

 

33. Blaze Jordan, 1B, DeSoto Central HS (MS), Mississippi State commit, 45 FV: An internet-famous and draft model-friendly player, he ranks as the youngest hitter in the class with a long summer track record and strong exit velocity. More traditional evaluations are concerned about projecting a right/right (bats/throws) maxed-out prep first baseman.

 

34. Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State, 45 FV: He's half of the best college middle infield combo in the country can hit, has above average raw power, has produced and can play third if needed.

 

35. Jared Jones, RHP, La Mirada HS (CA), 45 FV: Medium-framed righty who throws up to 100 mph to go with a plus breaker and good athleticism; the strong arm speed with that frame at such a young age scares some teams long term.

 

36. Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest, 45 FV: A lefty who stood out on the Cape, he has a slightly better chance to start than Nick Swiney (see below), a similarly plus changeup and an above-average breaker.

 

37. Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State, 45 FV: This lefty took a step forward this spring, throwing a low-90s heater, plus changeup and improved breaker.

 

38. Carson Montgomery, RHP, West Orange HS (FL), Florida State commit, 45 FV: A big name when he was throwing into the mid-90s a couple years ago, he took a step forward this spring with a mid-90s heater headlining three above-average pitches and the feel to start.

 

39. Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (OK), Oklahoma commit, 45 FV: He looked like a mid-first-rounder this summer before Tommy John surgery; the big lefty was throwing into the mid-90s along with a plus breaking ball and starter traits.

 

40. Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas, 45 FV: This 80-grade runner can play shortstop and has average raw power, but his swing and overall contact ability have long been concerns.

 

41. Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor, 45 FV: Loftin is a glove-over-offense shortstop who can hit but doesn't have much power; there are rumors that he could sneak into the late-20s as a high probability quick-mover with a feel for the bat head.

 

42. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke, 45 FV: He was draft-eligible last year as a redshirt sophomore but took a huge step forward this summer; he added arm speed, now throwing into the mid-90s as well as an improved breaker, but the same plus changeup and starter traits he had last year. He's 22 years old, so he's a target to get overdrafted for an under-slot bonus.

 

43. Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech, 45 FV: The biggest popup guy this spring has a very short track record of starting and a Tommy John surgery in the rear-view mirror, but he throws an upper-90s heater and an easy plus hook, and he provided some outstanding looks in the abbreviated spring.

 

44. Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA), Duke commit, 40+ FV: Walker has huge raw power and is a famous name with some track record on the summer circuit, but his lateral quickness and breaking ball recognition were just okay early this spring.

 

45. Burl Carraway, LHP, Dallas Baptist, 40+ FV: The only slam-dunk reliever in the top 50 picks is a 6-footer with the mentality and approach to fit and loud stuff, throwing up to 99 mph to go with an easy-plus curveball.

 

46. Christian Roa, RHP, Texas A&M, 40+ FV: A power arm who took a big step forward this spring, mixing in a plus changeup, solid/average breaker and starter traits to go with the mid-90s velocity.

 

47. Tanner Witt, RHP/3B, Episcopal HS (TX), Texas commit, 40+ FV: The son of the Marlins' minor league hitting coach has taken a big step forward on the mound this spring, throwing into the mid-90s to go with a plus hook that has a high spin rate.

 

48. Aaron Sabato, 1B, North Carolina, 40+ FV: He has some markers similar to Pete Alonso at the same stage -- plus-plus raw power but pitch selection and contact are fringy.

 

49. Freddy Zamora, SS, Miami, 40+ FV: He tore his ACL just before the season but looked like a late first-rounder at that point.

 

50. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida, 40+ FV: Mace was a projection arm in high school that made a jump early in college. Some scouts complained before the season that his heater was too hittable, but he was up to 97 mph against Miami and has a plus slider and the feel to start.

 

 

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51. Petey Halpin, CF, St, Francis HS (CA), Texas commit, 40+ FV

52. Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State, 40+ FV

53. Austin Wells, 1B, Arizona, 40+ FV

54. Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International, 40+ FV

55. Seth Lonsway, LHP, Ohio State, 40 FV

56. Drew Romo, C, The Woodlands HS (TX), LSU commit, 40 FV

57. Cayden Wallace, 3B, Greenbrier HS (AR), Arkansas commit, 40 FV

58. Alex Santos, RHP, Mount St. Michael HS (NY), Maryland commit, 40 FV

59. Zach DeLoach, CF, Texas A&M, 40 FV

60. Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville, 40 FV

61. Cam Brown, RHP, Flower Mound HS (TX), TCU commit, 40 FV

62. Anthony Servideo, SS, Ole Miss, 40 FV

63. Jace Bohrofen, RF, Westmoore HS (OK), Oklahoma commit, 40+ FV

64. Cade Horton, RHP/SS, Norman HS (OK), Oklahoma commit, 40 FV

65. Cole Henry, RHP, LSU, 40 FV

66. Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball State, 40 FV

67. Christian Chamberlain, LHP, Oregon State, 40 FV

68. Sam Weatherly, LHP, Clemson, 40 FV

69. Kevin Parada, C, Loyola HS (CA), Georgia Tech commit, 40 FV

70. Hunter Barnhart, RHP, St. Joseph HS (CA), Arizona State commit, 40 FV

71. Masyn Winn, RHP/SS, Kingwood HS (TX), Arkansas commit, 40 FV

72. Daniel Cabrera, LF, LSU, 40 FV

73. Tyler Gentry, RF, Alabama, 40 FV

74. Sterlin Thompson, LF, North Marion HS (FL), Florida commit, 40 FV

75. Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, American Heritage HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit, 40 FV

76. Corey Collins, C, North Gwinnett HS (GA), Georgia commit, 40 FV

77. Joe Boyle, RHP, Notre Dame, 40 FV

78. Zach McCambley, RHP, Coastal Carolina, 40 FV

79. Hudson Haskin, CF, Tulane, 40 FV

80. Beck Way, RHP, Northwest Florida JC (FL), LSU commit, 40 FV

81. Alerick Soularie, LF, Tennessee, 40 FV

82. Nate Wohlgemuth, RHP, Owasso HS (OK), Arkansas commit, 40 FV

83. Coby Mayo, 3B, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL), Florida commit, 40 FV

84. Parker Chavers, CF, Coastal Carolina, 40 FV

85. Landon Knack, RHP, East Tennessee State, 40 FV

86. Ben Hernandez, RHP, De La Salle HS (IL), Illinois-Chicago commit, 40 FV

87. R.J. Dabovich, RHP, Arizona State, 40 FV

88. Trevor Hauver, LF, Arizona State, 40 FV

89. Ryan Hagenow, RHP, Farragut HS (TN), Kentucky commit, 40 FV

90. Chase Davis, RF, Franklin HS (CA), Arizona commit, 40 FV

91. Kyle Harrison, LHP, De La Salle HS (CA), UCLA commit, 40 FV

92. Yohandy Morales, 3B, Braddock HS (FL), Miami commit, 40 FV

93. Hayden Cantrelle, 2B, Louisiana, 40 FV

94. Carson Tucker, SS, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ), Texas commit, 40 FV

95. Colby Halter, SS, Bishop Kenny HS (FL), Florida commit, 40 FV

96. Hugh Fisher, LHP, Vanderbilt, 40 FV

97. Kyle Teel, C, Mahwah HS (NJ), Virginia commit, 40 FV

98. Jackson Miller, C, Mitchell HS (FL), Wake Forest commit, 40 FV

99. Nick Garcia, RHP, Chapman, 40 FV

100. MacKenzie Wainwright, RF, St. Edward HS (OH), Ohio State commit, 40 FV

101. Casey Schmitt, 3B/RHP, San Diego State, 40 FV

102. David Calabrese, CF, St. Elizabeth Catholic HS (CAN), Arkansas commit, 40 FV

Posted
I had to do some loops to get access in Canada but worth it as I am really enamored with this draft. I'll post his top 50 after I clock out.

 

Awesome! I was hoping to see the top 50 one way or another.

Posted
This is Kiley's BPA? He really likes Veen a lot. Higher than Lacy and Hancock and just under Tork/Martin/Gonzo.

 

That's how I like it. Jay's taking Veen would be skippy. Mind you I really wouldn't care whom the Birds take here.

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