MLB 2020 Draft

[Brownie19]

The Blaze Jordan hype has really died down eh? He's now a 2nd or 3rd rounder?

[BlueRocky]

Yeah Blaze Jordan went from top 15 considerations to possibly early 2nd round pick. Currently projected #35 on BA. He might fulfill his commit to Mississippi State.

 

Dude is still young though, he will be 17 during the draft.

[BlueRocky]

Another edition of draft stock watch by Carlos Collazo & Baseball America’s team:

2020 MLB Draft Stock Watch: Pitching, Pitching And More Pitching

 

Garrett Crochet Tonyfarlow

Garrett Crochet, right (Photo by Tony Farlow)

By Carlos Collazo

on March 10, 2020

 

Welcome to Baseball America’s Draft Stock Watch. A recurring feature throughout draft season, we’ll use this space to explore rising and falling prospects in the 2020 draft class and also dive into various themes and topics at greater length. You can see previous installments below:

 

How Potential First Rounders Can Boost Their Stock | How Juco Can Pay Off | 10 Sleepers To Watch | Will Robo Umps Affect Catcher Scouting?| A Strong Year For Eligible-Sophomores | Nick Gonzales Keeps Hitting | 10 Prospects Trending Up

 

It's difficult to overstate how impressive the depth of this year's pitching.

 

Seemingly every week, there's another arm around the country trending up draft boards. Players are either coming out of the gate with improved stuff, showing better control than previous years, or popping up entirely.

 

There have been more pitchers described as second or third round talents this spring than the last several years, to the point where it would be unsurprising to see many of those players slide come June.

 

“This is definitely a class that has separated itself in terms of the depth of arms,” said one American League scout. “I think from an area perspective you will see guys you were used to seeing go in the second round actually go in the fourth round … It’s just remarkable how loaded this class is in terms of arms.”

 

Given this, our stock watch today is heavily geared toward identifying a number of those pitchers who are trending up, and explaining why they are. It's a long one, so let's dive in.

 

*Ranks in parentheses refer to player ranks on the BA Draft 200 list.

 

 

Ranked Risers

 

Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee (No. 15)

 

Crochet missed the first three weeks of the season with shoulder soreness, but got back on the rubber Saturday and tossed 3.1 innings against Wright State while allowing two hits and striking out six.

 

Entering the spring Crochet, had a chance to vault himself into the top 10 picks in the class, and now that he’s back he has a chance to fully step into those expectations. He’ll have a large contingent of scouts bearing down on him this weekend when Tennessee heads to South Carolina during the first week of SEC play. Crochet has exceptional upside thanks to a 70-grade fastball and potential plus slider, but has somewhat limited track record as a full-time starter.

 

Crochet was one of two first-round college arms who dealt with injury to open the season. Mississippi State righthander JT Ginn missed two weekends with arm soreness before undergoing elbow surgery last week.

 

Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami (No. 59)

 

McMahon has been extremely consistent for the first four weekends as Miami’s Saturday starter this season. He’s worked into at least the sixth inning in all four starts and has struck out at least eight batters during every start as well.

 

His most impressive outing was a six-inning start against No. 1 ranked Florida, when he allowed six hits, an earned run and two walks to eight strikeouts. McMahon has a solid track record as an ACC starter, which could move the needle for teams who are nitpicking other arms in the 2020 class with more significant reliever questions.

 

Ian Seymour, LHP, Virginia Tech (No. 68)

 

Seymour continues to show that he’s an advanced strike thrower, and he’s piling up strikeouts over his first four starts of the year, including a 14-punch outing against Georgia Tech last Sunday. On the season, Seymour has thrown 20.1 innings in four starts with a 2.21 ERA 40 strikeouts to just five walks.

 

His 14 strikeouts against the Yellow Jackets were the most a Virginia Tech pitcher has ever had in an ACC matchup, and helped the Hokies notch their first ACC win of the season. Seymour has an average fastball and a plus changeup, with a developing breaking ball as well. If he continues to succeed into conference play, scouts will have to allow that Seymour might have a chance to start at the next level in spite of his size and reliever-like operation.

 

Seth Lonsway, LHP, Ohio State (No. 156)

 

Lonsway entered the spring with an easy plus curveball from the left side, but significant control concerns after a summer in the Cape Cod League where he walked 12 batters in 12 innings. Over the summer Lonsway’s velocity was also inconsistent and frequently below-average, but he’s shown better heat this spring.

 

After four starts and 18 innings, he’s struck out a tremendous 42 batters—good for the best strikeout per nine rate in the country (21.0). That sort of bat missing stuff from the left side is enticing, but the strike throwing concerns haven’t been addressed. Lonsway struggled to repeat his delivery over the summer and it appears the same issues are continuing this spring, but the stuff is hard to deny.

 

 

Unranked Risers And Pop-Ups

 

 

Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech

 

Beeter served as Texas Tech’s closer in 2019, but has transitioned to a starting role where he’s had tremendous success over four starts. After walking 19 batters in 19.2 innings (8.69 per nine) as a reliever in 2019, Beeter has cut his walk rate dramatically in a starting role this spring, walking just four batters in 21 innings (1.71 per nine).

 

A 6-foot-2, 220-pound redshirt sophomore, Beeter has a few plus pitches in his arsenal, including a fastball up to 97 mph and an overhand curveball that is good for a second plus offering. Beeter’s history of strike throwing could scare teams and there is some reliever/starter risk in his profile, but he’s done enough to significantly jump up draft boards, as high as second round consideration for some teams.

 

Mason Erla, RHP, Michigan State

 

Erla was an exciting prospect coming out of high school as an athletic, 6-foot-4 righthander with an 87-91 mph fastball, but a football injury sidelined him during his senior season. He then made it to campus at Michigan State, where he started two games before a season-ending injury ended his debut season in college.

 

Now, four years later, Erla is starting to raise eyebrows for his performance early this spring. In four starts and 26 innings he’s struck out 42 batters and walked six. It’s a small sample, but Erla has more than doubled his career strikeout rate so far this year after taking small steps forward in K/9 and BB/9 each season with Michigan State.

 

Last year his fastball averaged around 93 mph and didn’t play up particularly well—he allowed 102 hits in 82 innings—but he’s more regularly up to 95-96 and touching 97 mph so far this season and the strikeouts are up accordingly. He’s yet another arm who could work himself into the second round.

 

Landon Knack, RHP, East Tennessee State

 

Multiple scouts brought up Knack’s name this weekend. Through games on March 8, the righthander is leading the country in strikeouts with 51. That’s more than top of the first round arms like Reid Detmers (48), Asa Lacy (46) and Max Meyer (46).

 

Knack pitched at Walters State (Tenn.) JC for two years before moving to East Tennessee State. In his first year in the Southern Conference he posted a 2.60 ERA over 15 starts in 97 innings with 94 strikeouts (8.72 per nine) and 16 walks (1.48 per nine).

 

What’s different this year is Knack’s stuff is up significantly. He’s touching 97-98 mph, which is impressive in its own right, but even more so considering Knack’s—ahem—knack for and track record of throwing strikes. Previously Knack was more in the low-90s range with his fastball. He should be a priority senior sign who goes around the fourth round to a team who implements a senior-heavy strategy like the Mets did in 2019.

 

Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball State

 

Nicolas struck out 17 batters against Sacred Heart last Friday, which is one more than the 16 righthander Drey Jamison managed last spring and two shy of the all-time Ball State record (19 in 1941). On the season, Nicolas has posted a 2.74 ERA over 23 innings and four starts with 37 strikeouts and seven walks.

 

He seems to have done well with new pitching coach Larry Scully, as Nicolas has cut his walk rate significantly at this point after walking 44 batters in 57 innings (6.95 per nine) in his most recent full season. Nicolas also struggled last summer in the Cape, where he posted a 6.29 ERA in 24.1 innings with 31 strikeouts and 21 walks.

 

He’s touched 97 mph with his fastball, which typically sits more in the 93-95 mph range with a slider that has potential and a distant third-pitch changeup.

 

Adam Seminaris, LHP, Long Beach State

 

An undersized, pitchability lefthander, Seminaris is one of the better pure pitchers in Southern California and while he might not have the biggest upside, he’s performed at high level against solid competition this spring.

 

In one of his biggest matchups this spring, Seminaris tossed eight shutout innings against Mississippi State on February 28, when he struck out 10 and walked two. Seminaris followed up that outing with a 14-strikeout game against Zavier. His curveball is his best offering, and it’s solid but Seminaris doesn’t have plus velocity to brag about.

 

On the season, Seminaris has posted a 1.23 ERA over 22 innings with 36 strikeouts to three walks. He should be a solid day two pick.

 

Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State

 

One of a number of college arms in the state trending upward—along with Duke’s Bryce Jarvis and Wake Forest’s Jared Shuster—Swiney has a long track record of racking up strikeouts, but questions about his profile and strike throwing.

 

After walking more than five batters per nine in his freshman and sophomore seasons in a reliever role, Swiney has started four games and walked just six batters in 28 innings. He struck out 10+ batters in each of his first three games before throwing against Virginia in his most recent start, where he threw seven innings and struck out five batters.

 

Swiney’s fastball ranges anywhere from 86-93, and he’s touched 94, with good natural feel for spinning a breaking ball and a solid changeup. If he maintains this newfound strike throwing throughout the spring, he could wind up around the second or third round.

 

 

Notes From the Field

 

At Baseball America, we travel around the country throughout the season. Here are notes from our in-person looks. This week we checked out a top 25 matchup between Duke and Florida State, where a number of crosscheckers and a scouting director were in attendance to see a primetime Friday night matchup between the red hot Bryce Jarvis and FSU’s CJ Van Eyk. We also stopped by to see Louisville lefthander Reid Detmers carve in Winston-Salem.

 

 

Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville (No. 11)

 

 

Baseball America

✔

@BaseballAmerica

Reid Detmers' curveball is flat out insane.

 

The @LouisvilleBSB ace was electric again this weekend, striking out 15 against Wake Forest.

 

Detmers was outstanding during his most recent start, on the road on a frigid Friday evening at Wake Forest. The lefthander struck out 15 hitters over six shutout innings while allowing just four hits (all singles) and two walks. The stats alone tell you that Detmers was dominant, but the way he deploys his arsenal makes him one of the best college arms in the country and should lead to him hearing his name called early in the first round.

 

Detmers worked with a full four-pitch complement on Friday, starting with a low-90s fastball and backing it up with a downer curveball, an excellent changeup and a short, sharp slider he used sparingly. Beyond its velocity, the fastball's signature component was its devastating two-seam movement. Detmers had tremendous command of the pitch and proved over and over again that he could bring it back over the outside corner against lefties or elevate it on the outside half against righties and let it explode out of the zone.

 

The fastball's characteristics allowed Detmers to establish command of the strike zone from east to west. His nose-to-toes curveball worked in perfect concert with the fastball and helped Detmers keep hitters guessing from north to south as well. Although he didn't command the curveball as consistently as he would like, Detmers still showed a strong ability to let it parachute in for a called strike or plummet into the dirt for chases.

 

If Detmers had just the fastball and curveball, he'd be plenty effective. His changeup, however, made him nearly unhittable. Detmers threw the pitch with excellent conviction and plenty of separation from his fastball. Thrown against righties, the changeup allowed Detmers to control the lower half of the strike zone on the outside part of the plate. The equation of all three pitches meant he had weapons he could use to attack hitters up, down, in and out. More than that, he had the smarts to sequence his pitches in a way that kept Wake Forest’s hitters guessing—mostly incorrectly—all night long.

 

--Written by Josh Norris

 

 

Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke (No. 195)

 

Jarvis has trended up since the start of the college season thanks to increased stuff, and he turned in a day one performance in front of a plenty of scouting heat last Friday in a big-time matchup with Florida State righthander CJ Van Eyk.

 

There were echoes of Jarvis’ perfect game against Clemson throughout this outing, as the 6-foot-2 righty took a perfect game through 6.2 innings. The bid for his second perfect game of the season ended after he got right fielder Robby Martin to swing through three changeups for a strikeout—but the third bounced away from catcher Michael Rothenberg and allowed Martin to reach first base.

 

While the perfect game ended and the no-hitter disappeared when left fielder Elijah Cabell singled in the ensuing plate appearance, Jarvis still outdueled Van Eyk to the tune of seven shutout innings, one hit allowed, one walk and 12 strikeouts.

 

Jarvis showed electric stuff across the board throughout his seven innings of work with a fastball that touched 96 in the first inning and sat in the 93-94 mph range for the duration. He also showed two barrel-missing off-speed pitches in an 83-86 mph changeup and an 83-87 mph slider.

 

His fastball and changeup were easy plus offerings in this outing, while his slider was perhaps a half-grade behind, more above-average but flashing plus potential as well. Jarvis recorded six whiffs with his fastball, six with his slider and eight with his changeup.

 

Jarvis has an average frame and pitches with a quick tempo out of a half wind up with a bit of effort and recoil at times in his delivery. He also has a bit of head whack—particularly on more high effort throws—but that didn’t affect his command in any way in this outing, as he landed all of his pitches consistently throughout. When he did miss with his changeup and slider, he missed down in the zone and was ahead of batters in the count enough that no damage came from the misses.

 

If he holds this stuff throughout the spring, it’s hard to not see Jarvis going on day one or soon on day two of the draft.

 

CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State (No. 37)

 

Van Eyk was on the losing end of an exceptional pitcher’s duel with Bryce Jarvis Friday night, but still turned in a solid performance. Van Eyk tossed six innings and allowed just three hits one earned run, with six strikeouts and two walks.

 

Van Eyk throws with a more loose and fluid arm action than Jarvis, working out of a slow windup that features very little coil, with some hooking action in the back, a three-quarter arm slot and an easy finish.

 

His pure stuff wasn’t quite as loud as Jarvis’, though it was solid. Van Eyk threw a fastball that touched 95 mph a few times, but was more regularly in the 91-94 mph range. His best secondary offering on the day was a 78-80 mph downer curveball that had 11-to-5 and 12-to-6 shape with sharp, biting finish at its best. It looked like an above-average offering with plus potential.

 

Van Eyk also threw an 81-84 mph changeup that had slight fading life at time but good sinking dive that fooled batters of both handedness throughout. His fourth offering was an 83-85 mph slider that he used more infrequently than his curveball—the pitch had tight spin with slight 10-4 shape, but less depth and swing-and-miss potential than his curve.

 

Like Jarvis, Van Eyk showed good control of most of his pitches throughout the outing—his two walks both came after missing just on the edges of the strike zone—and he showed good feel for landing his changeup down in the zone. However he did yank his slider to the glove side on a few occasions and more regularly spotted his curveball to the arm side, regardless of whether or not the batter was right or lefthanded.

 

Van Eyk’s fastball induced more groundballs than whiffs, but he did generate four swings-and-misses on his curve and four on his changeup in this outing.

 

Nander De Sedas, SS, Florida State (No. 81)

 

De Sedas was a prominent prospect coming out of high school. In the 2018 BA 500, we ranked the Florida shortstop as the No. 28 player in the class, choosing to buy into the upside of his exceptional raw tool set despite concerns about his hit tool during the spring.

 

Unsurprisingly, MLB teams were onto something and De Sedas has largely struggled with the bat in his year plus with the Seminoles. After hitting just .241/.365/.352 as a freshman, De Sedas has limped out of the gate again this year, hitting .148/.313/.148 after going through Duke’s gauntlet of pitching this weekend.

 

A switch-hitter with a solid, 6-foot-2, 198-pound frame, De Sedas looked lost at the plate. He chased fastballs both up and away, and showed an inability to recognize spin, much less barrel offspeed offerings with quality contact. In total this weekend, De Sedas went 0-for-12 with four strikeouts and one walk.

 

Defensively, De Sedas looked fine at shortstop. He made a few challenging plays. On one he ranged to his right and made a moderately difficult backhand look easy, fielding through the ball with ease and delivering a strong throw across the diamond. In another instance, De Sedas ranged up the middle to field a forehand behind the second base bag, set his feet and fire another strike to first. He showed an ability to cut down the distance on slow rollers as well, getting rid of the ball quickly when necessary, showing good hands and a solid internal clock.

 

His arm strength is likely his loudest defensive tool, but his hands were reliable and consistent this weekend as well. Some scouts question whether De Sedas has the short-area quickness necessary to handle shortstop at the next level, but considering the prevalence of shifts in the modern game it might be pessimistic to write him off the position entirely.

 

If De Sedas does have to move to another position—his tools would play nicely at third—the pressure on his bat increases significantly, and there are significant red flags in that area.

 

Elijah Cabell, OF, Florida State (No. 124)

 

Cabell showed some of the best raw power of any player on the field this weekend in batting practice. Ranked No. 70 on the BA 500 in 2018, Cabell was a high-upside, toolsy outfielder with power but questions about his vision and hit tool at the plate.

 

That largely seems to hold true now, as Cabell has easy plus raw power and the ability to drive the ball out of a park to the opposite field, but has swing-and-miss concerns, particularly with spin. Over the three-game series against Duke, Cabell went 4-for-11 with two home runs with six strikeouts and three walks.

 

His first home run came on Saturday against sophomore righthander Cooper Stinson, who threw an 88 mph two-seam fastball to the outer half, which Cabell did an excellent job sitting back on and driving to deep right-center field. Cabell showed a solid understanding of the strike zone, and saw fastballs well throughout the weekend, though sliders gave him trouble at times.

 

Despite the high strikeout rate—he leads FSU with 26 strikeouts through 15 games—Cabell has the best OPS (1.243) of all Seminole hitters through 15 games with a .271/.514/.729 slash line, seven home runs and 10 walks. He’s also been hit by 14 pitches this season, a shockingly high amount for 15 games, which is good for the nation-wide lead in the category and boosts his on-base percentage significantly.

 

Cabell has some room for improvement in left field. He made one error where a routine fly ball popped out of his glove, and on another fly ball had a slow jump and indecisive route to allow a blooped fly ball to fall into shallow left field for a hit. While winds were difficult at times this weekend, Cabell still looked a bit indecisive, though he still has game-changing natural arm strength with impressive carry.

 

There’s a lot to like with Cabell, especially considering how much power he’s able to get to in-game and with the entire field, but there’s a decent amount of crudeness still waiting to be refined.

 

Shane Drohan, LHP, Florida State

 

FSU’s No. 2 weekend arm, Drohan threw better than his line indicated in Saturday’s matchup with the Blue Devils. Drohan threw 5.1 innings and allowed five hits and four earned runs while striking out six and walking two.

 

A skinny lefthander listed at 6-foot-3, 195-pounds, Drohan throws with a loose and easy arm action, with a three-quarter slot and quick tempo. He showed fringy control in this outing, but had a solid three-pitch arsenal led by a 90-93 mph fastball with solid natural sinking life.

 

That pitch paired nicely with an 80-84 mph changeup that had fading life that resembled the look of his fastball, and a 77-80 mph curveball with 1-to-7 shape that had loopy break at times but solid depth. The curveball got four whiffs in the game and was better against lefthanded hitters than righties, particularly when he landed the pitch down and away to his gloveside.

 

Drohan’s fastball played up a tick from what the velocity might suggest, and he used it to generate 10 whiffs in the game, though when he did leave any of his pitches over the middle of the plate they got hit hard.

 

Thomas Girard, RHP, Duke

 

Scouts beared down on Girard when he entered the game in relief of Jarvis. The undersized, 5-foot-11, 190-pound righthander has been a reliable arm out of the pen for the Blue Devils, posting a 2.33 ERA as a sophomore in 46.1 innings and tying for third in the ACC with nine saves.

 

In two innings of work Friday night, Girard struck out five batters and walked one, allowing one run that crossed on a groundout. Girard threw his fastball in the 89-91 mph range with natural sinking and running action on the pitch, but his slider was his obvious weapon—an 80-85 mph breaker that has three-quarter shape and impressive tilt.

 

He generated six whiffs with the pitch and used it to finish all of his five strikeouts, bearing the pitch in the bottom of the zone while his fastball was consistently up. Girard has a reliever-only operation, pitching out of the stretch with a fast arm and violent action, exploding off the rubber and falling to the first base side in his landing.

Edited March 10, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Laika]

The Blaze Jordan hype has really died down eh? He's now a 2nd or 3rd rounder?

 

The hype was pretty silly to begin with for a high school player who profiles at 1B. Hard for them to go in the first, although we have seen a small number this decade (Triston Casas, Josh Naylor, Nick Pratto come to mind).

 

But I think Jordan has been playing 3B. Really all it takes is one team to think he can play 3rd and he's probably going high enough to sign... maybe even the notion that he could play the OF. Or, one team to see a Triston Casas type of hit-power combo.

[BlueRocky]

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/why-drafting-as-scheduled-could-be-the-best-move-for-baseball/

 

Why Drafting As Scheduled Could Be The Best Move For Baseball

 

By Carlos Collazo

on March 17, 2020

 

With baseball getting canceled left and right in the wake of the novel coronavirus, one of the natural questions we’ve found ourselves asking at Baseball America is, what about the draft?

 

With amateur baseball getting canceled around the country just before many big leagues began conference play and MLB issuing an order for all teams to halt scouting operations it’s a natural question to ask.

 

 

One of the most basic assumptions that has been going around online is that the draft will simply be delayed. The major league season is already officially delayed, so why not delay the draft as well?

 

While there could be benefits of postponing to some date beyond June 10-12, the primary motivation would be to allow for draft-eligible amateurs to take the field again and for teams to scout them. With no way to know when sports will go back to normal, that could be wishful thinking.

 

But what about the benefits of keeping the draft date as is? While it might seem counter-intuitive, those benefits do exist, and there are scouting directors in baseball who believe that might be the easiest path forward.

 

“I would strongly be in favor of keeping the draft date,” said one American League scouting director. “Both for this year and future years, just logistically … similar to articles you’ve published in the past about moving the draft date back, you’re going to have to worry about scouting the PDP League and the 2021 (class).

 

“Those are hugely important events while you’re also simultaneously preparing for the draft. Your scouts are going to be pulled in different directions.”

 

The current draft schedule doesn’t leave much wiggle room at all between the 2020 draft and the beginning of the 2021 draft cycle.

 

Just five days after the 2020 draft concludes, Perfect Game’s National showcase is scheduled to take place at Tropicana Field, from June 17-21. That’s the first of many different high school showcases and tournaments, including USA Baseball’s PDP League, in addition to USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team and the Cape Cod League.

 

Delaying the draft until July or August would either mean one of two things: Either scouts would simultaneously need to focus on making 2020 draft selections while writing important follow-up reports on high-priority 2021 draft prospects; Or the summer scouting season would get delayed or transform into a pre-draft combine/mini showcase season for 2020 prospects who missed spring seasons.

 

“I have heard of an NFL-type draft combine for the top 300 or however many players in June,” said one prominent agent, who was throwing out ideas that have been discussed inside baseball. “Just to get some type of look on guys… Do they push the draft back to August and turn the Cape into basically a month long or a six-week long kind of pre-draft tryout similar to the PDP League (for high schoolers)? Who knows? Everything is on the table.

 

“If I had to bet, I think the draft gets moved back a little bit, or moved back as appropriate and they do try and get the college kids back to their campuses in May or June. Kind of ramp back up under those facilities. You do some regional type workouts at the big universities, all the area guys come in.”

 

But with any of those hypothetical scenarios come question marks. Some logistical, some financial, some centered on the intricate details of how a pitcher would even prepare for something like that—but all of the questions are complicated.

 

“Who pays for it? When is it? What does the NCAA allow? You have all these things kind of stacking up,” the agent said.

 

Both paths bring along plenty of obstacles to stumble over.

 

Which brings us back to our initial proposal: keeping the draft date as is. While it’s not a perfect scenario (and with COVID-19, there is no perfect scenario) it might be the most clear and straightforward.

 

Every major league team would be ready to draft at the current date if necessary. Each pick would obviously come with much larger error bars and levels of uncertainty, but no team would be dealing with an information disadvantage thanks to MLB’s current ban on scouting.

 

Teams would have to place a bigger emphasis on history with all players and put a bigger weight on summer results and reports on both high school and college players alike. Models that favor track record and performance at the collegiate level and benefit performers who don’t possess the loudest tools would either be tweaked or relied upon less heavily.

 

Some players would be negatively affected. Certainly teams would wonder about players who started the first four weeks of the season strong and showed better stuff than they had previously. Was that a legitimate transformation of the player, or simply a loud start that would not have continued?

 

Teams would assess those risks and questions differently. But they would each have the same amount of information to work with, and they wouldn’t have to split their focus on two draft classes simultaneously.

 

 

But there are other benefits of drafting at the normal time, and those benefits could be increased with an earlier draft. If baseball resumes in June, a normal draft would potentially have player development advantages.

 

In such a situation, teams could get pitchers throwing in their system sooner than they ever could previously. Normally, the top college pitchers in a draft class have thrown so much during the college season that they are kept on very tight innings and pitch limits in their pro debut. With such a shortened college season, the Emerson Hancocks and Asa Lacys of the 2020 class would be able to throw more innings in their first stint in pro ball than Casey Mize (13.2 innings) or Nick Lodolo (18.1) ever could.

 

“You get this elite arm. Take your pick of all these elite ones, and you now get him for the entire summer, or the entire back half of the summer,” the agent said. “It’s fresh, it’s ready to go. The college arms you’ve got a history of them anyway. They pitched in the fall and last summer, Team USA… But you get him for 70-80 innings under your nose. You’ve never had that before.

 

“These kids sign and then they report when everybody else basically comes back, to a degree. Then right away into short seasons. You bring everybody back including 2020s at the same time under the same umbrella.”

 

Is that a significant benefit? That likely depends on who you ask, but in an industry where your age in pro ball means so much, it certainly moves the needle.

 

The advantages aren’t just for professional baseball, but the college game as well. While the NCAA announced that players wouldn’t lose a year of eligibility because of the shortened 2020 season, coaches will still be left to figure out difficult roster decisions with more returning players than anticipated. Additionally, some programs might not be able to fund increased scholarships even though they will be allowed.

 

“I hate the NCAA more than the next guy, but did it make sense to give an extra year of eligibility?” the agent asked. “I get the fairness thing, but I’m hearing from college coaches, none of these rules are going to be determined anytime soon, right? 11.7 up to where? Most teams can’t fund that many scholarships. If all of the sudden teams have 15 how do you do that? And your junior has an extra year of eligibility and he was off to a bad start so now a guy’s now coming back where you thought you would lose him for sure to the draft.”

 

Postponing the draft would only make those decisions more difficult for college programs and also for incoming freshmen, who could have significantly more competition for playing time than previously expected.

 

But the most obvious benefit goes back to minimizing the impact on the draft as much as possible. By keeping the draft date as is, only one class is affected. Delaying the draft means the 2021 class is negatively impacted as well. If at all possible, baseball should prevent that from happening. Drafting as scheduled—or sooner—might be the only way to make it happen.

 

“I think the simplest form would be to keep the draft as is or move it up,” the agent said. “And it just is what it is. You draft based on your comfort…Just a lot of questions abound and if the draft and major league baseball can just find a consistency here I think that would help. Yes, there’s going to be some people who have to wear it… But that’s not a bad dice to roll and just keep it the same.”

[BlueRocky]

Keith Law’s Top 30 prospects for the 2020 MLB Draft

 

https://theathletic.com/1670438/2020/03/16/keith-laws-top-30-prospects-for-the-2020-mlb-draft

 

This year’s MLB draft is not going to be a normal one. I wrote on Saturday about how coronavirus and the resulting cancelation of weeks (at least) of games will affect teams’ approach. Yet despite all the uncertainly, this is shaping up to be one of the strongest drafts in years — especially in the college class, where it’s easily the deepest it’s been since the epic 2011 draft that gave us Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, and George Springer from the college ranks and Francisco Lindor and Javier Báez from high school. This year’s high school pitching crop is thin, but after last year, when the first high school pitcher didn’t go off the board until pick 18, it seems like teams may be less inclined to chase those guys in the top half of the round.

 

Here’s my first ranking of prospects for this year’s draft, running 30 deep since that’s the length of a single round (although the first round this year has just 27 picks). Note that this ranking is missing one of the top names coming into the spring: Mississippi State right-hander J.T. Ginn, who made one appearance before an injury that led to season-ending elbow surgery.

 

1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State

 

Torkelson is the best bet to go first overall, although by no means a lock, as no college first baseman has ever gone first overall in the draft. (Two have gone second overall: Will Clark in 1985, and Travis Lee, who became a free agent on a technicality, in 1996.) Torkelson has everything you’d want in a hitting prospect – power (54 homers already in two-plus years in college), patience, and youth, as he won’t turn 21 until August.

 

2. Austin Martin, IF/OF, Vanderbilt

 

Martin played third base last year but has moved to center field, where his speed will probably make him a plus defender, although I thought he’d end up plus at the hot corner as well. He’s a plus runner with electric hands and a career OBP at Vanderbilt of .474, along with a strong track record on the bases. He missed the last two games of Vanderbilt’s most recent weekend series after straining a hamstring.

 

3. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M

 

Lacy is up to 98 mph with a slider and changeup, the latter probably the better offspeed pitch, with a solid delivery that keeps him online to the plate; he needs to improve his command, but would probably do so just by pitching more at 92-94 and letting his stuff do the work.

 

4. Nick Gonzales, SS, New Mexico State

 

Gonzales hit five homers in a game this season, albeit at 3900 feet above sea level; he can hit, and is likely to hit more for average than for big power, with a potential move to second down the road.

 

5. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

 

Hancock was mentioned by scouts as a possible 1-1 pick before the season, but hasn’t come out strongly, between a rougher delivery, reduced command, and a lot more use of his two sliders than his plus (or better) changeup.

 

6. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota

 

Meyer has hit 101 as a starter, with a slider that’s been up to 93, and the delivery works — so even though he’s a sub-six-foot right-hander, scouts still view him as one of the top two or three right-handers in the class.

 

7. Zac Veen, OF, Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, FL

 

Zac Veen, the hitting machine, might have the best swing in the draft class, a smooth, fast left-handed stroke that produces hard contact and big power. He’s a center fielder now with above-average speed but his reads aren’t great and he might just outgrow the position in time.

 

8. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville

 

Detmers is the most polished of the first-round college arms, and he is putting up some hard-to-believe strikeout numbers already – 48 in 22 innings this spring, 167 in 113 innings last year.

 

9. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

 

Cavalli was a two-way player his first two years in Norman but has focused almost exclusively on pitching this spring, with a plus fastball and slider that’s among the best in the draft.

 

10. Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State

 

Bailey is a no-doubt catcher with good instincts on both sides of the ball, solid contact rates, and a little pop. With catching a perpetual area of need in the majors, I would expect Bailey to go in the same range as Shea Langeliers (No. 9 last year), maybe higher since there isn’t another catcher above him.

 

11. Austin Hendrick, OF, West Allegheny HS, Oakdale, PA

 

Hendrick has the best pure power of the major high school bats this spring, power over hit, with a corner outfield profile and some small deduction for the fact that he’ll turn 19 right after the draft (like Bobby Witt, Jr., last year).

 

12. Robert Hassell, OF, Independence HS, Franklin, TN

 

Hassell has a great left-handed swing that’s a little flatter than Veen’s and should produce high averages but not the kind of plus power that Veen or Hendrick have shown. He’s an above-average runner with a strong arm, not definite to move out of center but more likely to end up in right.

 

13. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Arkansas

 

Kjerstad, who is definitely a real person and not just two different styles of IKEA shelving units, led a strong Arkansas offense last year with 17 homers but didn’t show the plate discipline or contact rates to make himself a clear first-rounder. He’s started much more strongly this year, distancing himself a bit from teammate Casey Martin, a shortstop who has struggled to hit out of the gate.

 

14. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina

 

A shortstop until his senior year of high school, Mlodzinski only threw 10 innings last spring due to a broken foot but dominated on the Cape last summer with an above-average fastball/slider combo. He has a short arm stroke that gives him deception but will likely be tough to repeat.

 

15. Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS, Doylestown, PA

 

Bitsko reclassified into the 2020 class, graduating a year earlier than originally scheduled, which makes sense given his current size and stuff; he’s been up to 97 with a plus curveball, getting good depth on the latter pitch from a high slot but with some effort in the delivery.

 

16. Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn

 

Burns was No. 44 on my board for the 2018 draft when he was a high school senior in Alabama, but fell to the 37th round and went to Auburn instead, where he’s taken over as staff ace after Casey Mize was the first overall pick in 2018.

 

17. Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS, Tigard, OR

 

Abel has been on scouts’ radar since starring at a Program 15 event in Arizona in September of 2018 when he was still a rising junior. He’s got a plus fastball and breaking ball that flashes plus as well, with a great, projectable pitcher’s frame.

 

18. Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio (TX) HS

 

Kelley is the latest model out of the Texas High School Pitching Factory, tall and strong and already bumping 98 last summer and this spring with a power breaking ball and changeup.

 

19. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Harvard-Westlake School

 

Crow-Armstrong’s parents were both actors on the TV show Heroes, giving him supernatural abilities when it comes to running and hitting a baseball. Or at least that’s the story I’m going with. Harvard-Westlake has suspended all spring athletics, however, so scouts may have to lean on previous evaluations of Crow-Armstrong, who looked good this spring but struggled last summer.

 

20. Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel (IL) HS

 

Howard is a true shortstop with above-average speed and some feel to hit, still showing some projection on a slight frame but probably not getting to power, projecting as a possible regular.

 

21. Austin Wells, C, Arizona

 

Wells is an offense-first catcher who is off to a huge start for the Wildcats this spring and won’t turn 21 until a month after the draft, but a below-average arm and fringy defense might eventually push him to another position.

 

22. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee

 

Crochet had been out several weeks with a back injury but returned last weekend, working at 94-99 mph in a 3-plus inning outing on Saturday. He has a history of missing bats but also giving up more contact than you’d expect from his stuff.

 

23. Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA

 

Mitchell is an 80 runner with a short, slashy swing for contact, and plays a solid center field with a plus arm, but doesn’t project to power, and teams will have to consider how to weight his diabetes.

 

24. Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech

 

A draft-eligible sophomore, Beeter has an above-average fastball and the best curveball in the draft, a grade-80 yellowhammer of a breaker that has led him to strike out 43 percent of batters he’s faced this spring.

 

25. CJ Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State

 

Van Eyk looked like a clear top 15 pick before the season started, with three above-average pitches, but he’s struggled through four starts with 12 walks in 20 innings.

 

26. Justin Lange, RHP, Llano (TX) HS

 

Lange has hit 100 mph this spring with a very fast and loose arm, Scherzer delivery and body; he’s 6’5″ and 210 or so now, having put on 25-30 pounds in the last year. He’s a former shortstop who has natural arm-side bore and an above-average changeup, developing a slider that should get to plus given his arm speed. He’s a ceiling play, a good athlete who’s only been pitching seriously for less than a year.

 

27. Dylan Crews, OF, Lake Mary (FL) HS

 

Crews has a great, fluid right-handed swing and solid-average tools across the board, but right now there’s too much swing and miss in his game as someone has convinced him to go all launch-angle and he doesn’t have the strength yet to pull it off.

 

28. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia

 

Wilcox was a first-round talent out of high school but chose to go to Georgia instead, where he’s now age-eligible as a sophomore, sitting mid-90s with a plus breaking ball but giving up too much hard contact on his very straight fastball.

 

29. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock (CA) HS

 

Soderstrom’s dad Steve was the sixth overall pick in 1993, eventually pitching in three games for the Giants in 1996. Tyler is a contact-hitting catcher, with no stride or weight transfer to get to power, whose best defensive attribute right now is his strong throwing arm; he’ll need development to stay behind the plate.

 

30. David Calabrese, OF, St. Elizabeth Catholic HS, Maple, ON

 

Calabrese is an 80 runner and potential 70 or better defender in center field who has shown well so far in exhibitions against pro pitching while playing for the Canadian junior national team. He’s short to the ball with a good eye, making contact but probably not hitting for much power.

 

Honorable mentions: Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State; Markevian Hence, RHP, Watson Chapel HS, Pine Bluff, AR; Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State; Daniel Cabrera, OF, LSU.

[Krylian]

Nothing wrong with nabbing Hancock at 5.

[BlueRocky]

Keith Law’s list is interesting and his top 5 isn’t too farfetched. He’s not too popular around here, but he’s got a lot of inside sources and info when it comes to stuff like the draft.

 

Even in Baseball America, there’s real talk around the draft scene about Asa Lacy’s rising stock. He has turned enough heads during his dominant start to be considered getting drafted before Emerson Hancock. His breaking stuff is just filthy, fastball command has improved from last year, and it helps to be a lefty when teams are nitpicking between two great options.

 

Baseball America has a recent podcast talking about the draft and this pitching class.

JJ Cooper not only has Asa Lacy ahead of Hancock, he thinks Lacy is a 1-1 candidate and would draft him as no. 1 overall pick. He cited that rarely in history the no. 1 pick would be a first baseman, even with a really impressive bat like Torkelson. Martin has showed he can play centerfield, and scouts still think he could be a legitimate shortstop with a plus-plus bat, or at the very least a plus-defender at third base and currently the favourite to go no. 1 overall amongst talent evaluators. I’ve talked about Nick Gonzales ad nauseam, so will leave it out here. But Cooper likes what he sees in Asa Lacy and thinks he’s got the stuff to be a frontline starter.

 

Carlos Collazo said Lacy and Hancock are 1a and 1b, with Lacy being slightly ahead. But Cooper refuted that Lacy is currently seen as “in a class of his own.” He throws 94-95, T98 and has multiple filthy off-speed stuff. Has the physicality and easy to project him as a major league SP.

 

The top 5 group is very strong, and even if you shift 10 picks down to the 15th, the names are very interesting from guys like Garrett Mitchell, Reid Detmers, Zac Veen, Austin Hendrick, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Carmen Mlodzinski, Jared Kelley, Mick Abel, Robert Hassell, Heston Kjerstad, Max Meyer, etc.

 

This year’s pitching class is uber strong and goes beyond first round deep, but there’s good position player talent too. There will definitely be some steals in the second and third rounds, teams could potentially nab a really good arm in the later rounds. The scouting scene getting shut down so early will cause a lot of wildcards in the draft pool.

 

We now have arms like Max Meyer turning a lot of heads, touching triple digits while carrying one of the nastiest breaking ball in the class, he might even go top 15 and a two-way player btw. And first round names prev. asterisked due to injury returned healthy right before the COVID-19 lockdown like Garret Crochet. Names like Detmers and Mlodzinski continue to up their stock. Prep guys that have suddenly added a lot of velo and barely got showcased before the lockdown. It’s gonna be a wild draft.

 

I did a podcast recording with Mike recently talking about the draft (coming soon), and I stated I would love Emerson Hancock at the no. 5 pick for the Blue Jays. Still holds true now, and I think it might actually have a good chance of happening.

Edited March 17, 2020 by BlueRocky

[P2F]

We still want to release that? I didn't think anyone even cared about baseball right now.

[KevinGregg]

We still want to release that? I didn't think anyone even cared about baseball right now.

 

I care about baseball still!

[Krylian]

We still want to release that? I didn't think anyone even cared about baseball right now.

 

People need a distraction and it's not like there are any other sports, or things in the entertainment industry that are accessible right now... Aside from Netflix and Disney+

[bronson44]

[Krylian]

 

I want my 5th overall pick

[Virgil_Hiltz]

wouldn't there be lawsuits by some of the amateur players restricting their rights to make a living?

[Boxcar]

wouldn't there be lawsuits by some of the amateur players restricting their rights to make a living?

 

MLB doesn't owe them anything. What could they possible sue for?

[BlueRocky]

 

[Virgil_Hiltz]

MLB doesn't owe them anything. What could they possible sue for?

 

Back in the 70's, certain underage hockey players sued the pro leagues to allow being drafted earlier.

The draft age at that time was 20 and the players sued to move up the age to 18, they claimed they were being prevented in making a living.

Is that a stretch?...maybe...maybe not. But if MLB draft is cancelled I could see the case about how they are restricting these players from making a living.

 

Edited to add.....some underage basketball players were about to do the same or just did it prior to the hockey players.

Edited March 21, 2020 by Virgil_Hiltz

[Spanky99]

Back in the 70's, certain underage hockey players sued the pro leagues to allow being drafted earlier.

The draft age at that time was 20 and the players sued to move up the age to 18, they claimed they were being prevented in making a living.

Is that a stretch?...maybe...maybe not. But if MLB draft is cancelled I could see the case about how they are restricting these players from making a living.

 

I wasn't aware of that, or simply forgot. Cool beans, man.

[BlueRocky]

I stated I would love Emerson Hancock at the no. 5 pick for the Blue Jays. Still holds true now, and I think it might actually have a good chance of happening.

 

 

[BlueRocky]

Austin Martin 2020 Highlights (Vanderbilt):

[Krylian]

 

 

Future Blue Jay looks good

[jaysguy44]

Pearson

Lacy/Hancock

Woods-Richardson

Manoah

Kay

Kloffenstein

Williams

Pardinho

Murphy

 

 

 

Filthy man

[Jonn]

Its going to be hilarious when there is 20 year olds being drafted out of High School in 2021 if they cancel the draft. And I thought the 19 year old High Schoolers was bad lolz

[BlueRocky]

 

It’s going to be very hard to pass on Nick Gonzales and Emerson Hancock, it would be a great scenario for the Blue Jays @no 5. Those are potential impact prospects, and somewhat safe picks (and industry consensus picks). But I’ve been looking into guys right behind the big 5 and there’s some really special talent in this draft.

 

If this was a normal college season, Max Meyer’s skyrocketing draft stock could’ve propelled him to top 8 considerations, right now he’s seen as a lock for top 15. With the NCAA season cancelled, there just isn’t enough data on him as a SP. Some really lucky team after us is gonna nab him as a high upside pick. Max Meyer has a triple-digit fastball and probably the nastiest sliders in all of college baseball. And this past off-season he’s worked in a new changeup. Fireballer with nasty 89MPH slider and reliever risk, sound familiar? One knock on wood, his frame is nowhere close to Nate, we’re talking 6-0, 185 lbs. I’m not sure how he’s generating so much velo.

 

If there’s one position player I would consider passing on Emerson Hancock for aside from Nick Gonzales, is Zac Veen. (Assuming Martin and Torkelson are gone). That kid is really special, and actually fits very well with some of the draft philosophies of this front office. His ability to hit, elite prep bat and raw power, potential centerfielder with athleticism, great frame (6-5, 200), love and passion for baseball. He’s been comp’d often to Yelich and Bellinger and practically living on baseball fields since he was 12 years old. He’s projected by multiple sources to be the first prep player taken in 2020.

Edited March 24, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Orgfiller]

Its going to be hilarious when there is 20 year olds being drafted out of High School in 2021 if they cancel the draft. And I thought the 19 year old High Schoolers was bad lolz

 

Why would they still be in high school? They'd just graduate and go play in JUCO ball if they still wanted to be drafted in 2021, better competition = more potential to boost your draft stock. The top high school recruits will all likely already have NCAA commitments and would just go there instead of the back and forth with clubs trying to offer them a bunch of money so they forgo the commitment.

[Jonn]

Why would they still be in high school? They'd just graduate and go play in JUCO ball if they still wanted to be drafted in 2021, better competition = more potential to boost your draft stock. The top high school recruits will all likely already have NCAA commitments and would just go there instead of the back and forth with clubs trying to offer them a bunch of money so they forgo the commitment.

 

The Junior College route I completely agree with but the High School guys that want to sign or expect to demand high bonuses aren’t committing to 3 years of College. Some will but I think you might see a Junior College heavy draft for the first time ever. But its very possible some could elect to be held back. Considering schools have been out well before graduation a kid on the cusp of graduating could hold off. Take nothing courses, chill, and just play Baseball dominating the competition.

 

I was mostly joking about the 20 year olds but we are definitely going to see some interesting decisions.

[BlueRocky]

BA updated top 300 draft prospect rankings:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-draft-top-prospects/

 

I’m not going to post all 300, just the first round. If there’s a name you’re curious about and not on the list just ask.

 

 

By Carlos Collazo

 

It feels odd to be rolling out an updated draft ranking right now, with the baseball season shut down thanks to the novel coronavirus—but here we are.

 

We’re expanding our draft list to the top 300 players in the country today, and updating the entire list after feedback from many, many scouts around the country. While we haven’t had college baseball for the last two weekends, this list does attempt to reflect the movement that occurred prior to COVID-19 canceling the season.

 

MLB scouting departments are in a unique situation at the moment, as many scouts didn’t have the time to work down pref lists and see the players they needed to this spring while plenty of northern states didn’t even get started on the high school side. As long as the draft actually takes place in some capacity this year, teams will be left to make picks based on shortened 2020 seasons and their history with players as underclassmen and over the summer.

 

Fortunately, Baseball America is in a similar situation to these clubs. We have a detailed understanding of the 2020 class at this point in the season after bearing down on 2020 prospects starting just a week after the 2019 draft a year ago. Our draft rankings are also based entirely on conversations with area scouts, crosscheckers, supervisors and scouting directors. As always, our prospect rankings attempt to gauge the industry consensus on these players.

 

We’re going to more aggressively expand our draft list to the BA 500 this year, with no games remaining for players to move up or down. However, that doesn’t mean players won’t shuffle as we expand to 400 and 500 players. While the players themselves aren’t being scouted, we are constantly gathering new information and getting more feedback from a larger number of scouts.

 

One benefit to this halt in baseball is that we should be able to do a better job capturing the consensus of the industry. Ironically, the small sample we were allowed this spring means there could be less of an actual consensus to capture. Regardless, we’ll spend the next few weeks and months gathering as much information as possible to provide a thorough, accurate and clear picture of each of the 500 top 2020 prospects in the class—and then some.

 

As we’ve written about previously, the 2020 class is a strong one. There’s an incredible depth of pitching that will only be more difficult to line up considering the COVID-19 element and limited looks of players. Are the pitchers who took steps forward with stuff and control legit, or was that simply a factor of a limited sample?

 

How will teams evaluate high school players, particularly those in the northern half of the country who barely set foot on a field this spring or those who weren’t regular summer showcase fixtures? What about college performers who lack tools and relied on their statistical resume to speak for themselves? Or college relievers who are tough to scout in general, and might not have been seen much at all?

 

The 2020 draft class has more questions than any draft we’ve covered—perhaps ever. There won’t be any easy answers. But we’re looking forward to trying to answer them.

1 Last: 3

Austin Martin, Vanderbilt OF

2 Last: 1

Spencer Torkelson, Arizona State 1B

3 Last: 4

Asa Lacy, Texas A&M LHP

4 Last: 2

Emerson Hancock, Georgia RHP

5 –Last: 5

Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State SS

6 Last: 8

Garrett Mitchell, UCLA OF

7 Last: 11

Reid Detmers, Louisville LHP

8 Last: 16

Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, Fla. OF

9 Last: 7

Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa. OF

10 Last: 30

Max Meyer, Minnesota RHP

11 Last: 6

Jared Kelley, Refugio (Texas) HS RHP

12 Last: 9

Mick Abel, Jesuit HS, Portland RHP

13 Last: 15

Garrett Crochet, Tennessee LHP

14 Last: 17

Patrick Bailey, North Carolina State C

15 Last: 25

Heston Kjerstad, Arkansas OF

16 Last: 18

Robert Hassell, Independence HS, Thompson's Station, Tenn. OF

17 Last: 24

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif. OF

18 Last: 19

Tanner Burns, Auburn RHP

19 Last: 21

Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS, Doylestown, Pa. RHP

20 –Last: 20

Austin Wells, Arizona C

21 Last: 10

Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina RHP

22 Last: 14

Ed Howard, Mount Carmel (Ill.) HS SS

23 Last: 12

JT Ginn, Mississippi State RHP

24 Last: 13

Casey Martin, Arkansas SS

25 Last: 22

Tyler Soderstrom, Turlock (Calif.) HS C

26 Last: 23

Drew Romo, The Woodlands (Texas) HS C

27 Last: 26

Cole Wilcox, Georgia RHP

28 Last: 32

Daniel Cabrera, Louisiana State OF

29 Last: 89

Bobby Miller, Louisville RHP

30 Last: 37

CJ Van Eyk, Florida State RHP

 

1

Last: 3

Austin Martin

Vanderbilt OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 170 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Indians '17 (37)

Age At Draft: 21.2

 

A first team All-American and Golden Spikes semifinalist after an outstanding sophomore season in which he hit .410/.503/.619 and was third in the country in hits, Martin is one of three favorites in the running for the No. 1 overall pick as a junior. Martin possesses some of the best pure hitting ability in the class, with eye-popping bat speed, and is trending in the right direction in terms of power. Defensively, Martin has the athleticism and hands to play anywhere on the field, but most of his reps have come at third base with Vanderbilt.

 

2

Last: 1

Spencer Torkelson

Arizona State1B

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 205 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 20.8

 

One of the premier power bats in the country, Torkelson has top-of-the-scale raw power and terrific hitting ability to go along with it. He has a chance to go down as one of the better power hitters of college baseball’s BBCOR era after belting 25 homers as a freshman (which led the nation) and 23 more in his sophomore season. USA Baseball coaches were impressed with his defense and work ethic last summer with the Collegiate National Team, and Torkelson is athletic enough to play left field as well as first.

 

3

Last: 4

Asa Lacy

Texas A&MLHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 215 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Indians '17 (31)

Age At Draft: 21.0

 

Lacy’s imposing demeanor and aggressive mentality on the mound endears him to scouts, but it's his package of plus pitches and track record in the SEC that make him the top lefthander in the class and give him a shot to be a top-five selection. Lacy posted a 2.13 ERA as a sophomore and allowed fewer hits per nine (4.97) than any pitcher in the country, thanks to a mid-90s fastball, wipeout slider and power curve.

 

4

Last: 2

Emerson Hancock

Georgia RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Diamondbacks '17 (38)

Age At Draft: 21.0

 

A notable high school prospect out of Georgia in 2017, Hancock established himself as one of the best arms in college baseball during a tremendous sophomore season in 2019. He posted a 1.99 ERA—the eighth best mark in Georgia history—and led the SEC with a 0.84 WHIP while allowing one run or fewer in nine of his 14 starts. Hancock checks all the boxes of a typical frontline starting prospect, with a 6-foot-4, 213-pound frame and a four-pitch arsenal of pitches that all have plus potential.

 

5 –

Last: 5

Nick Gonzales

New Mexico State SS

Notes:

Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.1

 

Only five second basemen have been drafted among the top 10 picks this century, and Gonzales has the pure hitting ability to become the sixth. A freshman All-American after a .347/.425/.596 season with the Aggies, Gonzales took his offense to a new level last year, leading the country in hitting (.432) and ranking among the top five in major offensive categories like RBI (5th), runs (5th), on-base percentage (5th) and slugging (3rd). A loud summer in the Cape Cod League (seven home runs) with a wood bat only gave teams more conviction in his uniquely special bat.

6

Last: 8

Garrett Mitchell

UCLAOF

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 204 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Athletics '17 (14)

Age At Draft: 21.8

 

If you like tool sheds, you’ll like Garrett Mitchell. A high-profile prospect dating back to his prep days with Orange (Calif.) Lutheran High, Mitchell possesses the best package of tools in the 2020 class, with plus-plus running ability, plus arm strength, defense and raw power that some scouts are now citing as 70-grade juice. Mitchell has endlessly tweaked his swing throughout his amatuer career, but seemed to find his groove as a sophomore last season, when he hit .349/.418/.566 and led the country with 12 triples. Another strong offensive season could make Mitchell one of the first players drafted.

7

Last: 11

Reid Detmers

LouisvilleLHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 210 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Braves '17 (32)

Age At Draft: 20.9

 

Perhaps the most polished strike thrower in the 2020 class, Detmers last year set a Louisville program record with 167 strikeouts and tied the program record with 13 wins. A 6-foot-2, 210-pound lefty with a workhorse frame, Detmers has a fastball that gets into the mid 90s but plays up thanks to good deception. He couples that with a devastating curveball that has big-time depth, and he goes about his business with a mature, professional approach. Detmers has a solid starting track record, posting a 2.85 ERA in 17 starts as a sophomore with a 6.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

8

Last: 16

Zac Veen

Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, Fla.OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 200 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Florida

Age At Draft: 18.5

 

Veen started to raise eyebrows as a junior in high school, when he went on a bit of a home run binge, including homering against the top prep pitcher of the 2019 draft class, Matt Allan. A projectable, 6-foot-5 lefthanded hitter, Veen has a chance for five above-average tools and has tantalizing power upside as he continues to add weight. He’s already taken a big step in that direction over the offseason, adding around 20 pounds of strength to his frame, which will allow him to take advantage of his smooth, consistent swing and terrific strike zone discipline. Veen is a patient hitter who will take his walks. He has some swing and miss as well, and while he has a chance to play center field as a solid runner and defender, it’s likely he’ll move to a corner in the future thanks to his size.

9

Last: 7

Austin Hendrick

West Allegheny HS, Imperial, Pa.OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 192 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Mississippi State

Age At Draft: 19

 

Is there a high school hitter in the 2020 class with a better hit and power combination than Hendrick? We don’t think so. The Pennsylvania product is likely a corner outfielder, but he has light tower raw power and some of the quickest bat speed scouts have seen in years. Hendrick has also shown the ability to quiet a previously noisy and unconventional swing in order to take more consistent at-bats against high-level pitching that he doesn’t see frequently with West Allegheny. He is a Mississippi State commit.

10

Last: 30

Max Meyer

Minnesota RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-0 | Wt: 185 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Twins '17 (34)

Age At Draft: 21.3

 

A two-time member of USA Baseball’s collegiate national team, Meyer has been a reliable two-way player for Minnesota who began transitioning into a starting role during his sophomore season. This year, he’ll take over the Friday starter role and look for his mid-to-upper-90s fastball and power slider to hold up over longer outings. Meyer’s power slider is one of the best in the country and unique among amateur pitchers in its ability to hover around 89 mph.

Edited March 25, 2020 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-10-prospects-who-improved-their-stock-before-play-stoppage/

 

2020 MLB Draft: 10 Prospects Who Improved Their Stock Before Play Stoppage

 

Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville

BA 300 Rank: 29

Previous rank: 89

 

Justin Lange, RHP, Llano (Texas) High

BA 300 Rank: 62

Previous rank: Unranked

 

Christian Roa, RHP, Texas A&M

BA 300 Rank: 64

Previous rank: Unranked

 

Nick Garcia, RHP, Chapman (Calif.)

BA 300 Rank: 76

Previous rank: Unranked

 

Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech

BA 300 Rank: 79

Previous rank: Unranked

 

Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball State

BA 300 Rank: 85

Previous rank: Unranked

 

Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Lakewood (Calif.) High

BA 300 Rank: 90

Previous rank: Unranked

 

Colt Keith, SS, Biloxi (Miss.) HS

BA 300 Rank: 55

Previous rank: 87

 

Carson Tucker, SS, Mountain Pointe HS, Phoenix

BA 300 Rank: 74

Previous rank: 135

 

Jake Vogel, OF, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS

BA 300 Rank: 95

Previous rank: 147

 

Collazo has blurbs on all the prospects, and does a great draft stock watch column on guys like these every tuesday. It’s worth the cheap annual subscription if you’re into this kind of thing.

 

There’s a bunch of interesting names, especially pitching to watch out for in the second and third rounds. The second round is especially deep this year with college pitching, they said on pod there’s potentially 50 names that are typically classified as second round talents, and with less scouting data this year there’s plenty of gems teams can get lucky in the later rounds.

 

Gonna leave the blurbs out but if there’s a name someone is curious about just ask.

[Jimcanuck]

William (Bronx, NY):

 

Any rumblings to where Nick Gonzales might go to? It's disappointing that we couldn't get a longer look at him this year.

 

Carlos Collazo: It is disappointing that we couldn’t see more of him. But Gonzales is one of the guys who will be affected the least by this. He had already banked quite a bit of his draft stock. I keep hearing the Royals tied to him.

 

 

F'ing Royals.

[BlueRocky]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-draft-prospects-chat-32520/

 

Collazo also did a Q&A prospect chat today, it’s really long with lots of meaty stuff. I’ll post some relevant ones.

 

Logan Field (MI):

Thanks for doing this! I could really use some draft talk these days! Do you think the Tigers go with Torkelson or Martin at 1 and why? Who could they target in the 2nd round? Loftin? Foscue? Westburg? Any other players come to mind? Do u think those guys will be available? Thank you! Appreciate all your hard work as always!

 

Carlos Collazo: Happy to do it, and thank you for stopping by! Yes, it’ll be nice to just pretend things are normal for a while and talk players, though I believe we’ll get into some COVID-19/draft related questions in here as well. We now have Martin at the top spot in the class and I think I would lean towards him over Tork at this point because of his better all-around profile. If you wanted to argue that Tork’s bat was worth taking at 1-1 regardless, I wouldn’t argue too much with you.

 

Dylan (Mi):

Will the draft happen? Very hopeful it will!

 

Carlos Collazo: As someone who gets paid to almost exclusively cover the draft… I am right there with you. As of today I think it happens.

 

 

Johny (MI):

What have you heard regarding the draft? Do they expect it will happen? Hopefully!! When will your next mock draft come out?

 

Carlos Collazo: We’ve heard all sorts of things regarding the draft. The AP report that talked about rumblings of no draft talk spooked a lot of people. I think it is/was legitimately being concerned, but I also think everything under the sun is on the table. That said, pretty much everyone I’ve talked with has said they think it would be farfetched for the draft not to happen. The fact that the NFL and NBA are both still having their drafts I think are good signs here.

 

Carlos Collazo: There could be some significant changes to the draft though. If owners are concerned about spending money, maybe the pools are adjusted. The simplest solution would probably be to either shorten the draft or defer bonuses and draft as scheduled. As I’ve written about recently, you get into a logistical nightmare when you start talking about postponing the draft or combining this year’s class with next years. Though I have talked with scouts who like both of those ideas.

 

Adam (Quarantine):

What do you think the odds are that the draft is completely cancelled this year and how much would having an entire draft class merge with next year mess with things? So many guys would be seniors and have less negotiating leverage, guys would lose money because there are going to be more prospects drafted in front of you, colleges were probably planning on scholarships based on who might leave, etc. The list goes on and seems like it would be really hard to deal with. Long question, but a lot to think about. Thanks

 

Carlos Collazo: This is a great followup to the previous questions. I think a lot of the points you bring up are good ones. There are just so many complicating factors that you have to deal with if you don’t draft this year or if you delay the draft. One of the benefits of drafting as usual would be that colleges don’t have to deal with as much roster crunch. It’s a tough spot for seniors in college especially because they have to weigh the negatives of competing in a (theoretically) much deeper college senior class next year with the positive of, you how, playing your senior season. Especially for those seniors are teams with legitimate CWS aspirations.

 

Owen (NC):

Hey Carlos, love the list. Great job as always. One thing that jumped out to me was the fall of Dylan Crews from 45 to 65. I've heard he looked good early in the spring. What's the main reasoning behind the drop? Thanks

 

Carlos Collazo: Thanks for the kind words, Owen. I actually got the opposite feedback from some scouts I trust who didn’t think he looked great early this spring. Which is disappointing because I personally love Crews. I love the swing, I love the power potential, and I love the makeup. It’s a tough profile though as a right-right, likely corner guy and if he’s not mashing I think teams could get a bit nervous about trying to buy him out of LSU. I’m still personally in on Crews, but haven’t got the sort of feedback from the industry at this point to warrant boosting him. Still making calls though, so we'll see.

 

 

David (Canada):

Where would Calvin Ziegler from the Canadian team fit on your board? Surprised he was ommitted.

 

Carlos Collazo: I think Ziegler will fit in that next range when we expand to 400 and 500. It’s tough. The Canadian kids had just started to get rolling, so we don’t really have a great picture of them right now. I know Owen Caissie was doing pretty well and I also talked with some scouts who really like David Calabrese, but those are still the top guys for us from Canada. As for the Western part of the country, Theo Millas, Justin Thorsteinson and Jack Seward seem to be the top names.

 

William (Bronx, NY):

Any rumblings to where Nick Gonzales might go to? It's disappointing that we couldn't get a longer look at him this year.

 

Carlos Collazo: It is disappointing that we couldn’t see more of him. But Gonzales is one of the guys who will be affected the least by this. He had already banked quite a bit of his draft stock. I keep hearing the Royals tied to him.

 

HOMIE (Cal):

Where do you see Heston Kjerstad, Garret Crochet, Carmen Mlodzinski and Freddy Zamora going!

 

Carlos Collazo: Kjerstad seems like one of the safest bats in the entire class, so I think he’s going to go really well. Especially now. You have to feel good about everything he’s done in his college career and with team USA. He’s a career .331/.412/.563 hitter with 30 home runs in 132 games in the SEC. Crochet is more of a question mark than you’d like because of his delayed start to the season, but the reports on the stuff were good when he did come back. Someone will buy into that huge upside from the left side, as they should. I’m bummed because I was planning on seeing Crochet and Mlodzinski the weekend when everything started getting shut down. Would have been fun. Zamora’s injury makes things complicated. All the other guys in the first round though, with high likelihood.

 

 

Jeff Driskell (Charlotte):

What type of helium do you believe Shuster and Bryce Jarvis had for themselves this year? Do you think either could sneak into first round?

 

Carlos Collazo: These are two of the pitchers who have done really well for themselves. I think Jarvis probably has the better shot to go in the first round because he was showing three potential plusses with above-average command as well. The size is going to be a question and scouts are definitely going to wonder whether or not he would have held this sort of stuff over a full season. Shuster has been similar. Improved stuff, throwing harder. I think most teams probably have him in that 2-3 round range with a few outliers on either side certainly possible. A lot of pretty good college lefties in this class actually, which is nice. Wrote about Shuster and Jarvis in recent stock watch pieces as well if you want more.

 

Thomas Gray (Georgia):

Cole Wilcox stock after shortened season where he was showing signs of being a top guy like expected.

 

Carlos Collazo: I don’t think it changed a ton, as evidenced by our updated list. He’s in the same spot. He could have benefitting from getting more time to show some improvement with command and the ability to handle a starter’s workload. I like the stuff and body.

 

 

Bill (Poughkeepsie, NY):

Any chance Zac Veen sneaks into the top 5? He seemed to be trending that way before the season ended.

 

Carlos Collazo: Certainly a chance. I don’t think it’s likely though. Outside of Garrett Mitchell, the college guys ahead of him have fewer questions and similar impact potential. I would love to see a team say screw it, we like the talent, we believe in the player, and take him up there. That would be fun. But I wouldn’t necessarily bet on that at this moment. Where we have him ranked seems like the more likely range.

 

Chris (Massachusetts):

 

Do you see Pete Crow-Armstrong dropping to the Mets at 19??

 

Carlos Collazo: Seems like a reasonable range, though he was trending up a bit higher than that before the season stopped. Some guys I talked with said he was a top 15 lock. Middle of the first makes sense for me considering the class, his talent and the questions that are probably going to come up regarding his size and impact potential. He's probably the best defensive outfielder I've seen at the high school level.

 

Linc (Canada):

Hi Carlos, great work with all the draft content! On one of your recent pod cast with JJ Cooper, you mentioned Max Meyer has one of the nastiest breaking balls (slider) in the class. Are there any other pitchers in this class carrying a potential double-plus pitch?

 

Carlos Collazo: Love this question. And thanks for listening to the podcast! Hoping to hop on and do another one soon. Garret Crochet's fastball is probably just that. Jared Kelley's fastball might be that as well. Chris McMahon's changeup. JT Ginn might have two when he's healthy with his FB and SL.

 

Dave (Pueblo):

Any merit to idea of having fewer rounds of draft, say 20. Allow others who are not drafted to be open to bargaining their own contract. Teams must keep their draft budget restrictions. If HS kid wants to sign but team hasn't seen him play, they do like they did in the old days before the draft. Go on what scout has seen and negotiate with the family and compete against other teams.

 

Carlos Collazo: If the draft is shortened I imagine the biggest reason will be financial. Owners don't want to spend a lot of money right now, so they're certainly not going be keen on signing players outside of the draft. The draft is by far the cheapest way teams acquire talent.

 

Brogan (Toledo):

Hey Carlos, what led to the decision to bump Martin ahead of Torkelson, and is that indicative of what the Tigers might do at 1-1?

 

Carlos Collazo: That's not indicative of anything specific to the Tigers, more about conversations we've had with scouts throughout the industry on these players. I think there's a comfort in the all-around profile that Martin brings, in addition to an impactful bat. Hopefully when we get the mocks rolling we'll be able to give you some details on what the Tigers specifically are thinking. I'm guessing this will be a difficult draft to mock accurately, but we're up for the challenge.

 

 

Kyle (Oregon):

Does Garrett Mitchell have a completely different swing for BP? I'm having trouble reconciling the idea that people keep reporting he has plus raw power in BP with his low power output (even a lot of his doubles are hustle doubles). Also, are you hearing that teams in the top 10 will be scared away by diabetes?

 

Carlos Collazo: There are lots of players who have better raw power than game power. Actually, pretty much every player has more raw power than game power. As you can probably imagine, it's a lot easier to homer off of someone throwing BP than someone trying to get you out. The confidence a team has in Mitchell eventually tapping into that power is going to determine where they see him. We have talked with some scouts who think the swing is choppier in game, and he gets out of the box quickly. I've seen him slap and dash a bit and that will certainly dampen the power he's able to get to. But when you know the power and the strength is in the tank and you believe in the bat-to-ball skills and the approach... it doesn't take much to start believing a swing change or a few tweaks at the next level will unlock some of that.

 

 

Jose (Everywhere):

If I’m a fan of a team picking in the late 20s, should I hold out hope for Max Meyer or move on?

 

Carlos Collazo: Might want to find a new draft crush, pal. Sorry.

 

El Zilcho (Fighting Crime):

Was Reid Detmers on a historic strikeout pace? Do you think that his curveball will translate to pro ball, or is there too much hump?

 

Carlos Collazo: It seems like he was, though I wonder if he would have kept up that pace throughout the ACC season. Checking back at the NCAA record book the season strikeout record is 234 from a pitcher who threw 174.1 innings in 1979 (Derek Tatsuno, Hawaii). Detmers wouldn't have thrown those innings, but he was actually on pace for that exact number if he threw the 107 innings that he managed in 2019. I expected to look this up and tell you know, but that's pretty crazy. On a per/inning basis he's also there. It would have been extremely difficult to keep that pace up though.

 

Carlos Collazo: As for the second part of your question, my buddy and colleague Josh Norris had the same concern, that pro hitters would be able to more easily make contact and/or spit on the breaking ball because of that hump that occurs at times.

 

Derek (Tampa):

How do you come up with your rankings? Are they just personal opinions? Would decision makers really give up a pref list? It’s interesting how different these rankings are from other rankings.

 

Carlos Collazo: Our draft rankings are always built around feedback from scouts and scouting departments. That's always been the way we've done it here. My feeling is always, 'Why would readers care what I personally think about all these players? I am not paid by teams to make these evaluations.' We feel that getting the information that actual scouts have on players is more valuable. Now, obviously I can throw my own opinions out there on players in podcasts and chats and on Twitter, and when I'm watching a player, but when it comes to the draft rankings we try and base it entirely on feedback from the industry. That's the goal, to capture the industry's consensus on the 2020 draft talent. Others will have different processes, and I don't think that's a bad thing. It's just different.

 

Alan (Pittsburgh):

Outside of the top 10 or so guys, who do you think are the three players with A)the highest ceilings, and B)the highest floors?

 

Carlos Collazo: Alright here's where I'll throw a bit of personal opinion in here. Fun question. So, not considering the top 10 guys we have (which ends at Max Meyer) here are my answers. Highest ceiling: 1. Garrett Crochet 2. Robert Hassell 3. JT Ginn. Highest floor: 1. Patrick Bailey 2. Heston Kjerstad 3. Carmen Mlodzinski.