MLB 2020 Draft

[BlueRocky]

I don’t know man, try convincing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to come play for the Blue Jays and pitching against the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Rays. While trying to outbid other teams on the contract.

 

Ryu was a pretty special case, it really doesn’t happen often. The Jays are taking a chance and offered a lengthy contract despite the injury history and age. The AL East is not the most friendly environment for free agent pitchers. And there’s such a high premium on elite pitching in free agency.

 

Still unlikely, you probably have a better shot convincing an outfielder like Marcell Ozuna to come here, you’d just have to make the best offer in term and dollars. Using this past offseason as an example.

[Spanky99]

Contrast to one of the weaker pools in recent memory in 2019 (only 2 pitchers in the top 16 including Alek Manoah).

 

The college pitching pool is pretty strong this year. They’re projecting @7 pitchers taken in the first 15 picks. We might get dibs on the #1 or #2 guy on the board depending how things shape up on draft night.

 

I could see them go either way with position player or pitcher. Things are up in the air as it’s only feb and college season just started.

 

Exciting, no doubt.

[Spanky99]

I don’t know man, try convincing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to come play for the Blue Jays and pitching against the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Rays. While trying to outbid other teams on the contract.

 

Ryu was a pretty special case, it really doesn’t happen often. The Jays are taking a chance and offered a lengthy contract despite the injury history and age. The AL East is not the most friendly environment for free agent pitchers. And there’s such a high premium on elite pitching in free agency.

 

Still unlikely, you probably have a better shot convincing an outfielder like Marcell Ozuna to come here, you’d just have to make the best offer in term and dollars. Using this past offseason as an example.

 

Yeah, OF'ers will be far easier to find concerning FA or trade... still BPA's best whether positional or an arm.

[max silver]

Yeah, OF'ers will be far easier to find concerning FA or trade... still BPA's best whether positional or an arm.

 

With the way that organizations horde their prospects nowadays I'm of the mindset that the only reliable way to acquire young elite outfielders is to obtain them as amateurs. Pretty much every trade for prospects now that occurs has the trading team designating a handful of their guys as untouchable. The lack of elite outfield talent in the minor leagues is pretty much the only nitpick that I have with the Jays current rebuild. Otherwise they have taken all the necessary steps to create a championship caliber talent pipeline, but sooner or later this discrepancy needs to be addressed for the organization to maximize their long term potential.

[max silver]

I don’t know man, try convincing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg to come play for the Blue Jays and pitching against the Yankees, Red Sox, and the Rays. While trying to outbid other teams on the contract.

 

Ryu was a pretty special case, it really doesn’t happen often. The Jays are taking a chance and offered a lengthy contract despite the injury history and age. The AL East is not the most friendly environment for free agent pitchers. And there’s such a high premium on elite pitching in free agency.

 

Still unlikely, you probably have a better shot convincing an outfielder like Marcell Ozuna to come here, you’d just have to make the best offer in term and dollars. Using this past offseason as an example.

 

I'm not so sure Marcell Ozuna is necessarily the best example for proving your case though. Cole and Strasburg are absolute upper echelon level players, while Ozuna has a variable enough set of expected outcomes that the best offer he could muster was in the 3 year $50 million region. I guess I can concede to your argument that position players have been more willing to just accept the top dollar no matter where it is, guys like Harper and Machado were willing to sign with rebuilding clubs. Sure it took obscene levels of money to sign both of these guys, but that's the price you pay for trying to acquire elite talent through free agency.

[Spanky99]

With the way that organizations horde their prospects nowadays I'm of the mindset that the only reliable way to acquire young elite outfielders is to obtain them as amateurs. Pretty much every trade for prospects now that occurs has the trading team designating a handful of their guys as untouchable. The lack of elite outfield talent in the minor leagues is pretty much the only nitpick that I have with the Jays current rebuild. Otherwise they have taken all the necessary steps to create a championship caliber talent pipeline, but sooner or later this discrepancy needs to be addressed for the organization to maximize their long term potential.

 

Yet, said talent can be moved through trade for need? I'm talking similar spects.

[max silver]

Yet, said talent can be moved through trade for need? I'm talking similar spects.

 

Sure that's possible, but I'm not sure I would have the appetite for moving out guys like Groshans or Pearson to acquire similar level talent for the outfield. Even the next tier down of guys like Orelvis Martinez and Alek Monoah would sting to send out in trade come to think of it as well. At my core I'm most likely the prospect hoarding type as well apparently.

[Spanky99]

Sure that's possible, but I'm not sure I would have the appetite for moving out guys like Groshans or Pearson to acquire similar level talent for the outfield. Even the next tier down of guys like Orelvis Martinez and Alek Monoah would sting to send out in trade come to think of it as well. At my core I'm most likely the prospect hoarding type as well apparently.

 

Positional premium would have to work, lol.

[BlueRocky]

 

 

Emerson Hancock

Georgia

RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Diamondbacks '17 (38)

Age At Draft: 21

 

A notable high school prospect out of Georgia in 2017, Hancock established himself as one of the best arms in college baseball during a tremendous sophomore season in 2019. He posted a 1.99 ERA—the eighth best mark in Georgia history—and led the SEC with a 0.84 WHIP while allowing one run or fewer in nine of his 14 starts. Hancock checks all the boxes of a typical frontline starting prospect, with a 6-foot-4, 213-pound frame and a four-pitch arsenal of pitches that all have plus potential.

 

Just in case this wasn’t posted. In last night’s game he looked flawless the first three innings, then gave up a run in the 4th, 5th, and two runs in the 6th and got yanked. Stuff looks good, but production wise he hasn’t had the best start to the season. There’s talk he could drop down to #5.

 

His 5.40 ERA doesn’t look good right now in 3 games, but has an outstanding 22 K / 3 BB in 16.2 IP.

 

Hancock was filthy in last week’s start, Feb 21, where he went 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Highlights:

 

There’s an article on Hancock by Carlos Collazo if anyone wants to read it: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hes-the-best-georgias-emerson-hancock-rises-to-join-college-baseballs-elite/

 

In summary, he’s added a lot of weight (@25 lbs) since high school thanks to the strength and conditioning coaches. Slider and curveball are improved. Change-up is apparently plus. Throwing FB @ 96mph.

 

For you guys subbed to The Athletic, here’s another Hancock article: https://theathletic.com/1634511/

 

Just some tidbits: His dad is a HS football coach, but he chose baseball. He didn’t throw very hard as a prep amateur, so he worked on control and refining his secondaries. His velo and stuff came in college.

Edited February 29, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Laika]

Drafting for need is very stupid, but I can't help but wonder if Toronto will be enticed into picking one of the college arms partly because of the thought that they could slide into the 2022 rotation. If we just use players currently with the organization and under control you'd potentially be looking at:

 

SP - Pearson

SP - Manoah

SP - Ryu

SP - Lacy or Hancock

SP - SWR

SP/RP - Kay/Borucki

SP/RP - Thornton

 

C - Jansen

3B - Groshans

SS - Bichette

2B - Biggio

1B - Vlad

DH - Kirk

LF - Gurriel

CF - Grichuk

RF - Teoscar

 

BN - McGuire ©

BN - Lopez (UTIL incl. SS)

BN - Smith (UTIL incl. SS)

BN - Tellez (1B)

BN - Conine (OF)

 

RP - Perez

RP - Merryweather

RP - Font

RP - Hatch/Murphy

RP - Borucki/Kay

 

Of course, a college CF or OF prospect would also fit nicely but the only one who seems to be projected in the top ~15 picks is Garrett Mitchell. Might be a reach.

[BlueRocky]

I looked at Mitchell a little bit, he’s got some pop and he’s a plus runner. His offensive profile is decent and defensively he’s adequate just based on brief reports. Seems like just a tier below the top guys, which is not throwing shade at him, the other guys just had ridiculous numbers.

 

https://d1baseball.com/season-preview/2020-preseason-all-america-teams/

 

Just looking at last season for Torkelson, Gonzales, and Martin. This was the pre-season first team all americans for 2020. The pitchers were solid too with Hancock, Lacy, and Detmers. I hear Kumar Rocker would be a top 5 pick (maybe even #1 considerations) if he was eligible this year, but he’ll likely go next year.

[BlueRocky]

 

Yeah so.. add another 2 home runs for Nick Gonzales today.

I think his on-base streak is now 77 games straight. New Mexico State pounded Purdue Fort Wayne 19-5.

And by the way he moved over from 2B to SS this season. There’s a chance he goes ahead of Torkelson.

[Deadpool]

 

Yeah so.. add another 2 home runs for Nick Gonzales today.

I think his on-base streak is now 77 games straight. New Mexico State pounded Purdue Fort Wayne 19-5.

And by the way he moved over from 2B to SS this season. There’s a chance he goes ahead of Torkelson.

 

BJMB should be all in, his handsomeness is off the charts.

[Laika]

Uhhh apparently Nicky Gonzales hit five dingers today in their double header. Yeow

 

Nick Gonzales is going #1. Easy. Now we just need a few other guys to go bonkers and Tork might drop to Toronto!

Edited March 1, 2020 by Laika

[BlueRocky]

 

 

5-10 5HR, 2BB 10 RBI today, welp.

[Beans]

I wonder what the Jays criteria are for picking the best player available? The lack of impact outfielders in the system compared to all other positions on the diamond leaves me wondering what their priorities are in drafting and international free agent signings. There are obvious impact infielders, catchers and pitchers throughout the system, but unfortunately there are very few exciting outfield prospects comparatively speaking. Perhaps this is a potential side effect of drafting strictly on best player available where you end up heavy in certain areas and light in others depending on how other teams end up choosing around you in the draft. I imagine some of this pitching/catching/infield depth in the minors can eventually be turned into impact outfielders in the future, but it certainly looks at a glance that the Jays aren't placing enough emphasis on obtaining impact outfield talent in their amateur talent acquisition processes.

 

There are never as many Outfielders as Infielders in any draft, in any year, and the Jays aren't the only organization thin in OF prospects.

 

Best Player Available... it's not even a question for me.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Beans

[Beans]

It’s silly to draft for positional need when the guy you’re picking in 2020 won’t have any major league impact until 2023-2025.

 

Even if our middle infield is stacked I would love to draft the next Gavin Lux.

 

By the time he arrives and it really doesn’t fit the lineup, then we’ll worry about it, prospects are also capital in trade discussions.

 

Pitching is something every team needs, but at the same time they have to balance risk vs reward.. that’s where it gets hazy. There’s always a dice roll with health issues, and even if everything goes right you have a guy that impacts your team once every 5 days. But elite pitching is also the most difficult commodity to acquire via trade and free agency.

 

If the team does all the research and feels really strongly about a guy.. like they feel “Player A” is gonna be the next MacKenzie Gore or Nate Pearson, you have to do it. Even if there’s a strong need for OF.

 

Even if they were the next Gore or Pearson, I still wouldn't do it. First, like you said, the injury risk. Second, the change in usage patterns (last year only 15 pitchers threw 200 innings or more) has drastically reduced the value of a SP.

 

With your top draft picks, you're hoping to get a 'franchise cornerstone,' someone who's going to be the star of your team, and starting pitchers just don't fill that role anymore. The jobs of Starter and Reliever are blending together at this point. The fact that only 3 HS pitchers were selected in the first round last year—the fewest since 2008—is a real trend going forward.

[Spanky99]

There are never as many Outfielders as Infielders in any draft, in any year, and the Jays aren't the only organization thin in OF prospects.

 

Best Player Available... it's not even a question for me.

 

Even if they were the next Gore or Pearson, I still wouldn't do it. First, like you said, the injury risk. Second, the change in usage patterns (last year only 15 pitchers threw 200 innings or more) has drastically reduced the value of a SP.

 

With your top draft picks, you're hoping to get a 'franchise cornerstone,' someone who's going to be the star of your team, and starting pitchers just don't fill that role anymore. The jobs of Starter and Reliever are blending together at this point. The fact that only 3 HS pitchers were selected in the first round last year—the fewest since 2008—is a real trend going forward.

 

So which is it BPA or not, you're contradicting yourself here?

[Beans]

So which is it BPA or not, you're contradicting yourself here?

 

BPPA... Best Position Player Available

[jaysguy44]

Hancock or Lacy, who would you guys prefer?

[Ryu In My House]

Here is MLB's list (sans paywall).

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/draft/

 

Torkelson might be a difference maker for years. He's a 1B, which for me means he may easily make it to round 5. Dunno.

 

He seems to be pretty great defensively, too.

[Ryu In My House]

Hancock or Lacy, who would you guys prefer?

 

Hancock > Lacy. Seems a little more polished. Either way it's a win.

[BlueRocky]

Here is MLB's list (sans paywall).

 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/draft/

 

Torkelson might be a difference maker for years. He's a 1B, which for me means he may easily make it to round 5. Dunno.

 

He seems to be pretty great defensively, too.

 

Torkelson’s bat is special, it’s a potential 60 hit/80 power caliber bat.

After breaking Barry Bond’s ASU Fr+So HR record by 10 last year, teams literally stopped pitching to him.

In 11 games he has 24 walks.. 13 intentional walks. He has a .623 OBP and .786 SLG. The first baseman tag could scare away one or two teams, as it did with Andrew Vaughn. But it’s hard to see that bat falling too far down.

 

 

Hancock or Lacy, who would you guys prefer?

 

It’s easy to just say Emerson Hancock, but Asa Lacy is really making a case for himself.

6-4 Lefty that throw mid-90s, wipeout slider and curveball, that can get 14 K in a game are hard to come by. It’s early but Lacy’s had a better start to the season as well. In 3 starts he has 33 K/ 6BB in 17.0 IP & 1.06 ERA.

Edited March 1, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Brownie19]

Can someone explain why the NCAA still allows aluminum bats? You can't even use aluminum in Bantam baseball in Ontario.

[BlueRocky]

Money is usually the answer.

[Spanky99]

Can someone explain why the NCAA still allows aluminum bats? You can't even use aluminum in Bantam baseball in Ontario.

 

Money is usually the answer.

 

This.

[Krylian]

Hancock or Lacy, who would you guys prefer?

 

Hancock. But Lacy would be a wonderful consolation prize.

[Brownie19]

Money is usually the answer.

 

But almost all the companies that produce aluminum bats also produce wood bats.

 

It can't the money in the # of bats purchased...

 

If NCAA kids aren't using aluminum bats does it effect their marketing to Little League and High School?

[Spanky99]

But almost all the companies that produce aluminum bats also produce wood bats.

 

It can't the money in the # of bats purchased...

 

If NCAA kids aren't using aluminum bats does it effect their marketing to Little League and High School?

 

Huh, it's most certainly the money, wood bats break all the time, bro?

[Laika]

Can someone explain why the NCAA still allows aluminum bats? You can't even use aluminum in Bantam baseball in Ontario.

 

Well they say it's a cost thing. Wood breaks, the aluminum bats really don't. Break a few wood bats and wood starts to cost more.

 

The manufacturers also have supply contracts and certain complicated relationships with the leagues and teams/coaches. So some coaches kind of support aluminum bats because it's in their contract to support the company that pays the school (or something like that). NCAA is kind of showcase for the aluminum bat manufacturers.

 

Also, the bats they use are now manufactured to be close to wood bats in performance. Look up BBCOR bats.