Around Baseball 2019

[G-Snarls]

Moustakas and Grandal have declined their options and are now free agents

[Boxcar]

MLBTR:

 

Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is pursuing an extension but otherwise plans to utilize the opt-out clause in his five-year contract, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman

 

Chapman, 32 in February, has two years and $30MM remaining on the five-year, $86MM pact he inked prior to the 2017 season. In the event that an extension isn’t reached, the Yankees will surely issue him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he’ll reject in order to head into free agency.

 

Did he miss the Kimbrel saga?

[Bobthe4th]

Amazing that some people here believe the Jays to be in this same situation. If we keep "rebuilding" for the next 3-5 years then we will not have Vlad and Bo for any substantial amount of time during the next window. The time is now to move into the next gear

 

You won’t find a single fan who doesn’t want to move into “the next gear”. What you will find is some fans deluding themselves that the next gear is the top gear.

[G-Snarls]

Did he miss the Kimbrel saga?

 

At least Darvish is smartly NOT opting out

 

Strasburg is the only pitcher who maybe should

[glory]

 

Something to keep an eye on, there are going to be some non tenders and options not being picked up for players that can help the Jays. This is where free agency can be an asset.

[Abomination]

 

Something to keep an eye on, there are going to be some non tenders and options not being picked up for players that can help the Jays. This is where free agency can be an asset.

 

I actually wouldn't mind us trading for Calhoun and picking up the option. 1/14 for a guy who's been between 2.1 and 3.5 WAR in 5 of the last 6 years seems pretty good. Could probably flip him too.

[Beans]

we're not rebuilding any more. We have been rebuilt. The core is here. It's time to SPEND (not that I would advocate giving more than like 11M to Edwin)

Rebuild has only just begun, my friend. Still have to build up pitching depth—not enough to have just a staff of 5 these days, need a deep pipeline of pitching for when injuries inevitably occur.

[Jimcanuck]

Amazing that some people here believe the Jays to be in this same situation. If we keep "rebuilding" for the next 3-5 years then we will not have Vlad and Bo for any substantial amount of time during the next window. The time is now to move into the next gear

 

Nah. Can expect Vlad and Bo to be extended, giving them security through the controllable years in return for a couple of FA years.

 

The idea the Jays have a window of contention that ends when Vlad and Bo hit free agency is wrong. The idea is to have a constant pipeline of Vlad and Bo types from the minors / sustained winning.

[Jimcanuck]

I actually wouldn't mind us trading for Calhoun and picking up the option. 1/14 for a guy who's been between 2.1 and 3.5 WAR in 5 of the last 6 years seems pretty good. Could probably flip him too.

 

I'd give him a few more years in return for a bit lower AAV.

[Bobthe4th]

 

Something to keep an eye on, there are going to be some non tenders and options not being picked up for players that can help the Jays. This is where free agency can be an asset.

 

Absolutely the last thing we need is another outfielder who is average with the bat (at best, in 2018 he was appalling) without being a defensive star.

 

Agree with your general point though.

[Boxcar]

Nah. Can expect Vlad and Bo to be extended, giving them security through the controllable years in return for a couple of FA years.

 

The idea the Jays have a window of contention that ends when Vlad and Bo hit free agency is wrong. The idea is to have a constant pipeline of Vlad and Bo types from the minors / sustained winning.

 

Name one team that does this.

[jaysblue]

You won’t find a single fan who doesn’t want to move into “the next gear”. What you will find is some fans deluding themselves that the next gear is the top gear.

 

We've seen over the last couple of seasons some teams who were in the "rebuild" phase move ahead of schedule. Nobody thought Atlanta was going to win their division in 2018. Nobody thought the Astros were going to win the AL Wildcard in 2015. Nobody thought the Cubs were going to make the postseason in 2015. Those teams had young stars who made an impact quickly once they arrived. Hopefully we could say the same about the Blue Jays when it comes to Vlad, Bo, and Biggio.

 

If there are solid players/pitchers via free agency who can be had for cheap and make the team better as a whole, without blocking any young significant player, the Blue Jays should pursue those options. I don't want to see players like Socrates Brito, Alen Hanson etc. getting AB's or playing time whatsoever in the month of April, when far better upgrades are available during the offseason and likely for a reasonable price.

 

Many people still think the Blue Jays window to contend is going to be in 4-5 years down the road. Doesn't have to be and likely won't. Depending on how well their top young positional players perform and if they make some key free agent signings or trades, its possible that window could be moved up maybe to 2-3 years like it was with the Braves and the Cubs.

[saskjayfan]

Nah. Can expect Vlad and Bo to be extended, giving them security through the controllable years in return for a couple of FA years.

 

The idea the Jays have a window of contention that ends when Vlad and Bo hit free agency is wrong. The idea is to have a constant pipeline of Vlad and Bo types from the minors / sustained winning.

 

You have no idea what Bo or Vlad want. Maybe they want to win. Assuming they will extend and give us 8 or 9 years instead of 7 is ridiculous.

 

Our core is here. Vlad, Gurriel, Jansen, Bo, Biggio, Grichuk and Pearson early next year. The next wave isn't coming until 2022. Management is fantastic at keeping expectations low and telling everyone how they are building something special a couple years out, until 2 years come and it's just another 2 years before we receive the golden ticket. Spending money would put their jobs at risk as expectations build.

 

I swear Ben Nicholson Smith is the mouth piece for management. I can't read his crap any more. Signing a Cole or a Rendon would allow you to add spend some money on short term deals to try and win now and it wouldn't sacrifice the opportunities 2 years from now. An Elite guy like Cole or Rendon is going to give you 4 or 5 great years and most likely 2 or 3 still decent years. Injury risks are always in play. You might lose a guy you're paying 30 mil a year for a year. You have to take chances.

 

I'm in no way saying I expect management to acquire a top tier free agent. All I'm saying is they should put real offers out there and make the attempt.

[Jimcanuck]

Name one team that does this.

 

'stro's / braves

[Jimcanuck]

You have no idea what Bo or Vlad want. Maybe they want to win. Assuming they will extend and give us 8 or 9 years instead of 7 is ridiculous.

 

Our core is here. Vlad, Gurriel, Jansen, Bo, Biggio, Grichuk and Pearson early next year. The next wave isn't coming until 2022. Management is fantastic at keeping expectations low and telling everyone how they are building something special a couple years out, until 2 years come and it's just another 2 years before we receive the golden ticket. Spending money would put their jobs at risk as expectations build.

 

I swear Ben Nicholson Smith is the mouth piece for management. I can't read his crap any more. Signing a Cole or a Rendon would allow you to add spend some money on short term deals to try and win now and it wouldn't sacrifice the opportunities 2 years from now. An Elite guy like Cole or Rendon is going to give you 4 or 5 great years and most likely 2 or 3 still decent years. Injury risks are always in play. You might lose a guy you're paying 30 mil a year for a year. You have to take chances.

 

I'm in no way saying I expect management to acquire a top tier free agent. All I'm saying is they should put real offers out there and make the attempt.

 

Agree with the last line.

 

My point is taking the position the Jays have a window that coincides with Vlad / Bo controllable years is ridiculous. And I fully expect them to be extended before FA hits, barring injury or suckage, leveraging the Jays control years to extend into FA years at reasonable price.

 

Disagree about next wave not coming until 2022. ETAs are spread over 2020, 2021, 2022.....

[Boxcar]

'stro's / braves

 

The Stros were one of the worst teams ever for awhile, and trade prospects all the time. They also don't really have a booming farm system filled with "Vlad and Bo types". The Braves have not been competitive for an extended period of time, and I can guarantee that with AA at the helm, they will not be following this strategy. Partly because it's a stupid strategy and partly because AA loves home run trades.

[Ray]

Name one team that does this.

 

Cardinals come to mind. Missed the postseason 7 times in the last 20 seasons. After Pujols left, they didn’t necessarily have that superstar Bo/Vlad type but still made the postseason 4 years in a row. Even the last 3 seasons where they didn’t make the postseason, they were still in the wildcard hunt until the end. They’re just a well rounded team top to bottom.

[BTS]

Cardinals come to mind. Missed the postseason 7 times in the last 20 seasons. After Pujols left, they didn’t necessarily have that superstar Bo/Vlad type but still made the postseason 4 years in a row. Even the last 3 seasons where they didn’t make the postseason, they were still in the wildcard hunt until the end. They’re just a well rounded team top to bottom.

 

Also the Yankees. The Rays never really rebuild and would probably have won 85+ games every year for the last 12 years with a 130M payroll. The Dodgers have been over 0.500 like 18 of the last 20 years. Feels like the Cubs and Astros won’t be under 0.500 for a very long time, but we’ll see.

[Jimcanuck]

I was not sure what boxcar was getting at.

 

If it is that sustained winning does not occur, well from 2008 to 2016 the rangers reached postseason 5x and finished worse than 2nd in the AL west once.

 

That's just the 2nd team I looked up. The 1st team was the Tigers, who have a spotty record, but did make the postseason 5x from 2006 to 2014.

 

Again, ridiculous to think the Jay's window ends when Vlad and Bo hit FA

[Barkerfan23]

Jay's are unlucky to be in the same division as the two franchises with the most resources in baseball

 

And the efficient team in baseball when it comes to resource management and still being effective

 

Kind of an excuse but if the Bluejays are in the Central they probably go the playoffs half the time

[Beans]

Name one team that does this.

Dodgers

[TheHurl]

IMO, neither Bo nor Vladdy are open to extensions.

[Krylian]

Strasburg opts out. It's now a FA.

[G-Snarls]

Strasburg opts out. It's now a FA.

 

Hot damn

 

How many players get to become free agents a few days after they win World Series MVP?

[Spanky__99]

Strasburg opts out. It's now a FA.

 

I think this was an obvious move.

[Brownie19]

The Stros were one of the worst teams ever for awhile, and trade prospects all the time. They also don't really have a booming farm system filled with "Vlad and Bo types". The Braves have not been competitive for an extended period of time, and I can guarantee that with AA at the helm, they will not be following this strategy. Partly because it's a stupid strategy and partly because AA loves home run trades.

 

Tucker and Whitley were both Top 15 prospects coming into the 2019 season...

[Boxcar]

I was not sure what boxcar was getting at.

 

If it is that sustained winning does not occur, well from 2008 to 2016 the rangers reached postseason 5x and finished worse than 2nd in the AL west once.

 

That's just the 2nd team I looked up. The 1st team was the Tigers, who have a spotty record, but did make the postseason 5x from 2006 to 2014.

 

Again, ridiculous to think the Jay's window ends when Vlad and Bo hit FA

 

No, what's ridiculous is not worrying about wasting their controllable years because you just bank on having more in the pipeline.

 

As far as I'm concerned, you basically want to employ the Gibbers strategy and I'm sure a few people can attest to the futility of it all.

[Boxcar]

Tucker and Whitley were both Top 15 prospects coming into the 2019 season...

 

Whitley sucks so it's just Tucker

[Bobthe4th]

Hot damn

 

How many players get to become free agents a few days after they win World Series MVP?

 

I know what you mean but technically it's the second year in a row it's happened after Steve Pearce last season!

[Jimcanuck]

No, what's ridiculous is not worrying about wasting their controllable years because you just bank on having more in the pipeline.

 

As far as I'm concerned, you basically want to employ the Gibbers strategy and I'm sure a few people can attest to the futility of it all.

 

You don't waste their controllable years, but neither do you go all in thinking the window is limited to that time period. You make strategic investments based on where the team is projected to be on the win curve.