Elvis Luciano Prediction Contest

[King]

Hi everyone,

 

I would like to see predictions for Lucianos first season.

 

Let's say ERA, IP, K, BB, GB%.

 

This comes after the discussion on the podcast, which has me intrigued.

[Laika]

Do you really think they keep him?

[King]

Do you really think they keep him?

that's not the point

 

And yes, I think there is some attempt made to keep him. It may not work but I don't think they drafted him with the plan of just sending him back.

[Grant77]

My prediction is that he is back on the Royals before the season starts.

[King]

okay delete this thread mods

[Carlos Danger]

He stays and is in contention for ROY, only to be beat out by Vlad the baseball impaler..

 

They will start him 6 inning or in non close games or mop up duty, he will do well, they will start progressively moving him into later innings and closer games. Innings limit will be in the conversation because he will be doing well... He will stick and be a key part of the 2020 roster...

 

 

 

69.2 IP

 

68 games

 

2.58 ERA

 

75 Ks

 

16 BB

 

ERA+ 159

 

WAR 1.9

 

SO9 9.7

 

WHIP 0.919

Edited December 27, 2018 by Carlos Danger
Stat predictions

[jays4life19]

5.60 ERA

28 IP

20 K

13 BB

39 GB%

 

I gotchu King

[Daniel Labude]

3.80 era

42 ip

40 k

27 bb

45 gb%

[TheHurl]

2.45 ERA

22 IP

19 k

11 bb

45.8 gb%

4.12 FIP

[mtljaysfan]

He will pitch in some blowout games.

 

38 IP

5.08 ERA

1.39 WHIP

32 Ks

18 BBs

[Deadpool]

5.50 era

35 ip

40 k

33 bb

40 gb%

 

But, I think he sticks with the team for the whole year.

[Boxcar]

Back on the Royals before May.

[saskjayfan]

Back on the Royals before May.

 

I'd rather make predictions on that. Why would they return him? Do the Jays have any chance of competing next year? Absolutely not. Why wouldn't you keep a 19 year old kid in the majors if he has upside and you can just put him back in the minors next year? Players get returned to teams, because they are usually 25 and 26 years old and suck in the majors. A 19 year old not handling the majors isn't unexpected and he has plenty of time to develop unlike the 25 or 26 year old guy taken in the draft.

[Boxcar]

I'd rather make predictions on that. Why would they return him? Do the Jays have any chance of competing next year? Absolutely not. Why wouldn't you keep a 19 year old kid in the majors if he has upside and you can just put him back in the minors next year? Players get returned to teams, because they are usually 25 and 26 years old and suck in the majors. A 19 year old not handling the majors isn't unexpected and he has plenty of time to develop unlike the 25 or 26 year old guy taken in the draft.

 

They would presumably return him because the roster spot is worth more than he is, and that having him on the roster all year vs. his eventual realistic upside doesn't really seem worth it.

[Maahfaace]

8.25 ERA

26 IP

14 K

21 BB

42% GB

 

TJS and Jays retain him.

[King]

6.54 era

33 ip

17k

15bb

45% gb

[Krylian]

0.69 ERA

91IP

24H

135k

5BB

50% GB

[Pendleton]

5.61 era

29 ip

21k

14bb

40gb%

[jays4life19]

5.60 ERA

28 IP

20 K

13 BB

39 GB%

 

I gotchu King

 

5.61 era

29 ip

21k

14bb

40gb%

 

I see what you did there

[glory]

He might be a guinea pig for the player development staff this year. Shapiro wants to create this big org culture where players are given the best nutrition, mental health, leadership training, etc, etc. This would be a big test for that as he's surely going to suck in the bigs but they'll work on his repertoire at the big league level while helping him with all the other stuff on the side. That's my guess at least.

 

I think he stays all year. Shatkins is ready to punt 2019 so the roster spot probably won't mean much to them. Although that theory will be tested once the pen is tired and they need fresh arms. Having someone there that they can't option or use in high leverage situations is going to hurt them.

[Pendleton]

I see what you did there

 

Have your pet spayed or neutered.

[tercet]

Who is LTBF? After nearly 5 years of being the worst poster on this forum he has to be someones troll account right?

[Bobthe4th]

My prediction is that he is back on the Royals before the season starts.

 

Yeah I agree

[Jimcanuck]

he'll stay with jays.... they knew exactly what they were getting into when they picked him, zero expectations of contributing any value in 2019

 

30 IP, 5.5 FIP

[Spanky99]

Boxy your cat, had me check if my cat was outside, lol.

[Spanky99]

he'll stay with jays.... they knew exactly what they were getting into when they picked him, zero expectations of contributing any value in 2019

 

30 IP, 5.5 FIP

 

He'll be pitching far more innings than that if he sticks around with the team.

[Deadpool]

He'll be pitching far more innings than that if he sticks around with the team.

 

I dunno, if he gets into 40 games this year I'd be shocked, and if he pitched a full inning in all of those I'd also be shocked. He's going to be a low leverage guy. I guess it's possible that if they see him as a future starter, he does multi-inning low leverage stints, but 30 innings seems plausible to me.

[Abomination]

I dunno, if he gets into 40 games this year I'd be shocked, and if he pitched a full inning in all of those I'd also be shocked. He's going to be a low leverage guy. I guess it's possible that if they see him as a future starter, he does multi-inning low leverage stints, but 30 innings seems plausible to me.

 

If he's gonna be a low leverage guy, he'll also likely be a multiple inning guy.

[Spanky99]

I dunno, if he gets into 40 games this year I'd be shocked, and if he pitched a full inning in all of those I'd also be shocked. He's going to be a low leverage guy. I guess it's possible that if they see him as a future starter, he does multi-inning low leverage stints, but 30 innings seems plausible to me.

 

I'm seeing it as the latter. At least 60 innings plus side-work.

[Deadpool]

If he's gonna be a low leverage guy, he'll also likely be a multiple inning guy.

 

Maybe? I just think they'll be cautious with him and hold him back if he's not ready (which he's probably not...)