Offseason Roster Thread

[TBJ12]

Merryweather might pitch in ST, but I doubt he breaks camp with the team. They will probably take it slow with him and then ramp it up towards the middle of the year.

 

Best guess, if he stays healthy, is he will make an appearance on the roster towards the end of the year (Aug/Sept) and then be a rotation candidate for 2020.

 

If healthy and effective why would they wait that long?

[P2F]

According to James Andrews, that's on the long end of the average recovery time. According to Andrews, the average is 12-16 months and I'd assume that older pitchers take longer. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can be back by April.

 

Here are some statistics on TJS since 2007, including the average rehab schedule:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/ten-interesting-facts-about-tommy-john-surgery/

[Boxcar]

Here are some statistics on TJS since 2007, including the average rehab schedule:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/ten-interesting-facts-about-tommy-john-surgery/

 

Ok you win. I award you the medal of utmost correctness.

[saskjayfan]

If healthy and effective why would they wait that long?

 

less worried about health...more worried about effectiveness.

[Bobthe4th]

Will Smith had his TJS in late March 2017 and he pitched in Spring training this year before starting a minor league rehab in April.

 

Cody Anderson had TJS in March 2017 and missed the whole of the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

 

Basically we won’t know when Merryweather will be available until we get an update on his recovery. Though as he’s in his late twenties and has never pitched in the majors, it’s overally optimistic to expect him to be in contention to be in the rotation to start the season.

[Grant77]

Cody Anderson had TJS in March 2017 and missed the whole of the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

 

Basically we won’t know when Merryweather will be available until we get an update on his recovery. Though as he’s in his late twenties and has never pitched in the majors, it’s overally optimistic to expect him to be in contention to be in the rotation to start the season.

 

Agreed. A reasonable expectation would be for him to make a modest contribution to the bullpen in the latter half of the season, provided his rehab goes well. If he ever becomes a significant part of our rotation then we will be rather lucky.

[Terminator]

Merryweather sucks. I expect nothing from him.

[Krylian]

Merryweather sucks. I expect nothing from him.

 

Pretty much. I think the problem that many have isn't the Merryweather vs. Comp pick, which everyone is using about... It's the return in general. Last offseason was the time to move him as many called for. Whether that was Atkins, Shapiro, ownership, or a combination that all three doesn't really matter. The fact is, the team made the wrong call. Nothing can be done about it now, but it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

 

All we can hope for is that Merryweather turns into something unexpected, and the youngsters advance further and quicker than we expect, so we can forget about all this.

[Spanky__99]

Pretty much. I think the problem that many have isn't the Merryweather vs. Comp pick, which everyone is using about... It's the return in general. Last offseason was the time to move him as many called for. Whether that was Atkins, Shapiro, ownership, or a combination that all three doesn't really matter. The fact is, the team made the wrong call. Nothing can be done about it now, but it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

 

All we can hope for is that Merryweather turns into something unexpected, and the youngsters advance further and quicker than we expect, so we can forget about all this.

 

I don't get why it leaves a bad taste in your mouth, ownership wasn't going to let that happen. Sure it would've been better to move him then, in hindsight, s*** happens. People now need to realize that Merryweather is better than a comp pick, it's the reality. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[P2F]

Holy f***, let's just keep beating this dead horse.

[Terminator]

My comments on Merryweather aren't an indictment on the trade in general. s*** happens and Donaldson completely f***ed his value this year. It is what it is. I just think Merryweather sucks is all and will be pleasantly surprised if he turns into anything better than an average reliever.

[Laika]

Merryweather rocks. I expect pleasantly mediocre things from him.

[glory]

I'm fairly indifferent to Merryweather as a whole, but why does he "suck"? It's not his fault he got hurt and was promoted slow as dirt when he was healthy. It's not like he throws high 80's and gets by with deception. Seems like he sits in the low to mid 90's with two other pitches. He might end up being nothing, but I'm pretty sure no one ever heard of him prior to this trade, so seems pointless to dismiss him or hype him up at this point.

[Laika]

The one thing that I know for sure about Julian Merryweather is that he throws baseballs. It seems reasonably certain that at some time in the future, perhaps in 2019, we will see him throwing baseballs for the Toronto Blue Jays. That's something to look forward to IMO.

[Jimcanuck]

Does Merryweather make the Jays top 30?

[Brownie19]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/elegy-for-18-toronto-blue-jays/

[Mikeleelop]

That's not saying much. Pillar's bat is about as bad as it can acceptably be given his defense.

 

and he is getting to the age where his defence will drop quickly (if it hasnt already)

[Mikeleelop]

The outlook for the 2019 Jay is dismal. If you look at the 2018 team our best player by bWar was Kevin Pillar - he was 2.5bWar which ranked 100th in MLB. Our best player was 100th, think about that

 

if you go back over the history of the Jays that is the lowest EVER for the franchise.

 

2018 Pillar 2.5

2017 Stro 5.9

2016 JD 7.6

2015 JD 8.5

2014 JB 6.7

2013 Rasmus 4.9

2012 EE 5.0

2011 JB 8.3

2010 JB 7.0

 

Rasmus in 2013 was twice the player Pillar was last year, that is how bad the team was last year. The Jays do not have an all star on the current 25 man roster.

 

The team defence was bottom three in the majors. Look at the advanced team stats available on Baseball Reference. It is consistent.

 

trading morales or travis or solarte is not going to happen. no other team wants our garbage because we are so bad.

 

I hope that Shatkins proves me wrong, but i think that the team has not yet bottomed out. The worst is yet to come

[Boxcar]

0% of people use bWAR.

[Laika]

0% of people use bWAR.

 

1) that's not true

2) even if you use fWAR, the Jays leader would be Grichuk/Happ with an even lower number than 2.5

3) way to ignore the guy's point and undermine a decent, lengthy post that someone put together

[jays4life19]

0% of people use bWAR.

 

I've noticed it's starting to be referenced around here more often. I think i'm going to start using WARP just to throw people off.

[Jimcanuck]

The outlook for the 2019 Jay is dismal. If you look at the 2018 team our best player by bWar was Kevin Pillar - he was 2.5bWar which ranked 100th in MLB. Our best player was 100th, think about that

 

if you go back over the history of the Jays that is the lowest EVER for the franchise.

 

2018 Pillar 2.5

2017 Stro 5.9

2016 JD 7.6

2015 JD 8.5

2014 JB 6.7

2013 Rasmus 4.9

2012 EE 5.0

2011 JB 8.3

2010 JB 7.0

 

Rasmus in 2013 was twice the player Pillar was last year, that is how bad the team was last year. The Jays do not have an all star on the current 25 man roster.

 

The team defence was bottom three in the majors. Look at the advanced team stats available on Baseball Reference. It is consistent.

 

trading morales or travis or solarte is not going to happen. no other team wants our garbage because we are so bad.

 

I hope that Shatkins proves me wrong, but i think that the team has not yet bottomed out. The worst is yet to come

 

Fangraphs projected 2.8 WAR for Vlad in 2019. Projections are conservative, he will likely exceed.

 

For the first time in a while, Jays have a number of young players trending up.

 

Could see 4-5 exceed 2 WAR in 2019. Candidates include:

 

Vlad

Grichuk

Jansen

Borucki

Stroman

Gurriel

Diaz

Smoak

 

To be sure, 2019 is going to be a poor year, but I doubt it will be worse than 2018.

[Laika]

The outlook for the 2019 Jay is dismal. If you look at the 2018 team our best player by bWar was Kevin Pillar - he was 2.5bWar which ranked 100th in MLB. Our best player was 100th, think about that

 

if you go back over the history of the Jays that is the lowest EVER for the franchise.

 

2018 Pillar 2.5

2017 Stro 5.9

2016 JD 7.6

2015 JD 8.5

2014 JB 6.7

2013 Rasmus 4.9

2012 EE 5.0

2011 JB 8.3

2010 JB 7.0

 

Rasmus in 2013 was twice the player Pillar was last year, that is how bad the team was last year. The Jays do not have an all star on the current 25 man roster.

 

The team defence was bottom three in the majors. Look at the advanced team stats available on Baseball Reference. It is consistent.

 

trading morales or travis or solarte is not going to happen. no other team wants our garbage because we are so bad.

 

I hope that Shatkins proves me wrong, but i think that the team has not yet bottomed out. The worst is yet to come

 

I doubt they will be any worse next year but I don't think they'll be significantly better either. They've probably bottomed out IMO because the 2019 team should at least be a bit more entertaining....

 

The 2019 roster will be eminently more watchable with young players like Jansen and Vlad and others in the fold. These guys, along with expected bounce backs from some of the core players like Stroman or Sanchez, will also probably mean that the Jays have at least a couple of above average / star level players even if the overall team doesn't win much. There will also be some interesting to watch "sink or swim" young players like Biggio, McKinney, Alford, SRF, Drury, etc. (guys who could be good but could also, reasonably, bust entirely). Decent chance the defense is horrendous again but it could also turn around if athletic guys like Alford and Bo can get a foothold.

[Dr. Dinger]

I have a very strong opinion about this injured PTBNL that I never heard of before the trade deadline!!! LOUD NOISES!!!!!!! INDIGNATION! CERTAINTY! INCREDULITY!!!

[Mikeleelop]

Fangraphs projected 2.8 WAR for Vlad in 2019. Projections are conservative, he will likely exceed.

 

For the first time in a while, Jays have a number of young players trending up.

 

Could see 4-5 exceed 2 WAR in 2019. Candidates include:

 

Vlad

Grichuk

Jansen

Borucki

Stroman

Gurriel

Diaz

Smoak

 

To be sure, 2019 is going to be a poor year, but I doubt it will be worse than 2018.

 

i hope you are correct, but I didn't think that 2018 could be worse than 2017 and it was.

 

plus starting pitching is very questionable, going into 2018 we were very positive on Sanchez and Stroman - now not so much.....

[Jimcanuck]

i hope you are correct, but I didn't think that 2018 could be worse than 2017 and it was.

 

plus starting pitching is very questionable, going into 2018 we were very positive on Sanchez and Stroman - now not so much.....

 

On the other hand, it would be hard for Stro and Sanchize (?) to be worse in 2019.

 

For the record, I fully expected 2018 to be worse than 2017.

[Jimcanuck]

I doubt they will be any worse next year but I don't think they'll be significantly better either. They've probably bottomed out IMO because the 2019 team should at least be a bit more entertaining....

 

The 2019 roster will be eminently more watchable with young players like Jansen and Vlad and others in the fold. These guys, along with expected bounce backs from some of the core players like Stroman or Sanchez, will also probably mean that the Jays have at least a couple of above average / star level players even if the overall team doesn't win much. There will also be some interesting to watch "sink or swim" young players like Biggio, McKinney, Alford, SRF, Drury, etc. (guys who could be good but could also, reasonably, bust entirely). Decent chance the defense is horrendous again but it could also turn around if athletic guys like Alford and Bo can get a foothold.

 

How come you got two likes when I said pretty much the same thing in the post before? BJMB is so cliquish

[Spanky__99]

How come you got two likes when I said pretty much the same thing in the post before? BJMB is so cliquish

 

No one reads your posts, Jim, STFU!

[Jimcanuck]

No one reads your posts, Jim, STFU!

 

You obviously did, liar!

[glory]

The one thing worse than a bad team is an old bad team. That's what the Jays have been the last two years.

 

In 2019.....

 

Jansen 24

Tellez 24

Gurriel 25

Diaz 28

Drury 26

McKinney 24

Hernandez 26

Grichuk 27

-----------

Vlad 20

 

Of course being younger doesn't mean being good, but there's a bunch of guys there who hit the ball hard as hell and might be able to improve. That's something.